2024 Cork Hilly Way Chase Meeting Preview

It was a frustrating day for us on Saturday. My two biggest fancies were at Aintree and that meeting fell by the wayside. Touch Me Not ran well to finish second but was a loser for us. Non-runners meant that Zambezi Mix’s third was no use to us either and Solness found the going too tough. Conkwell Legend at least managed to get the place, but only for a late mistake, it could have been even better. Sunday sees the flagship Hilly Way Chase meeting take place at Cork, preview and tips are below.

13.40 – Mares’ Novice Chase (Grade 2)

The top three in the betting set a decent standard here but I’m not sure the soft ground will suit Nara and Zenta jumped poorly last time. With that in mind, I think A Law Of Her Own could be worth taking a chance on here.

Trained by Peter Fahey, this daughter of Lawman has had three starts over fences. She finished a close third in a beginners’ at Galway on her chase debut and she then chased San Salvador home in a Grade 3 novice at Roscommon on her next start.

On her third start she ran with credit in a Listed Mares’ chase at Clonmel over 21f on good ground and while that trip probably stretched her, she still ran well enough to finish third behind Pink In The Park. She split the 132 rated Must Be Obeyed and the 151 rated Allegorie De Vassy in that race so her rating of 123 may slightly underestimate her ability.

Is this a better race than the Grade 3 she contested at Roscommon on her last start at 16f? I don’t think so and if she can repeat that level of form, she is well capable of making an impact here. At odds of 16/1, A Law Of Her Own is the each way selection.

Stevos’ Selection: A Law Of Her Own e/w @ 16/1

2.15 – Hilly Way Chase (Grade 2)

The returning Energumene is short odds to make a winning return in a race he landed in 2021 and 2022. Off for the guts of 600 days, he will surely be a touch rusty on his return and while he is the class horse in this race, it might be worth taking him on. On the figures, Blue Lord, Dinoblue and the fragile Ferny Hollow look the chief dangers but I am going to take a chance on another Mullins’ inmate, Appreciate It.

This 10yo hasn’t won since he landed a Naas novice chase back in January 2023. However, he has run plenty of excellent races in defeat, including a 0.5l second behind Fastorslow in the John Durkan on his seasonal reappearance last November (Galopin Des Champs and Blue Lord behind). He won on his seasonal return in 2022 and overall, his form figures when returning from his summer holidays read 1612 (the sixth coming in the 2022 Champion Hurdle).

The first of those wins came in a maiden hurdle at this venue, when he beat the very useful Master McShee. He has won seven of his ten career starts at 16f-16.5f and finished out of the first three just once (in that Champion Hurdle in 2022). Jockey bookings suggest he is down the Mullins’ pecking order but I think there are more than enough positives to warrant an e/w interest at odds of 16/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Appreciate It e/w @ 16/1

2.50 – Bar One Handicap Hurdle (80-116)

The one I’ll take a chance on in this competitive looking 20f handicap hurdle is Toor Khov. Trained in Stradbally, Waterford by Margaret Flynn, this son of Sholokhov is one of the less exposed runners in this race. He ran very well in his first three maiden hurdles at 16f-20f on varying ground and he got off the mark at the fourth attempt, landing a 24f maiden hurdle at Tipperary back in May.

He beat Pray Tell by 1.25l in that heat, and he was conceding 2lb to that rival. That horse is now rated 127 and is just 8/1 for the Grade 3 Novice Stayers’ hurdle earlier on this card. Toor Khov gets in here off 116 and with Liam Quinlan’s claim, he is effectively running off just 113.

This lad admittedly ran poorly on his return to action on his handicap debut at Gowran two months ago. However, he had excuses (lost a shoe and cut his leg) and in any case, he probably needed the run after a six month break. He placed in a 2m3f (yielding to soft) bumper here on his second start under rules so he handles the track and if he strips fitter for that comeback run, hopefully he can outrun his odds of 25/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Toor Khov e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

3.25 – Novice Handicap Hurdle (80-102)

A nice and easy twenty five runner get out of jail stakes. As you would imagine, this is wide open and the last five winners have been priced up at 10/1, 33/1, 25/1, 33/1 and 11/1. Knowing my luck, the fav will probably piss home this year but in the hope of another turn up, I am going to take a chance on the Galway raider, Island McCoo.

Now trained by Darren Collins, this horse showed ability in three of his four maiden hurdle starts at Kilbeggan and Roscommon at 16f to 20f for his former yard. He failed to fire when last seen on his handicap debut at Ballinrobe back in July but I am always willing to forgive a horse a poor effort on their handicap bow.

Since that run he has left Barry Murphy and the fact that Collins has travelled down to this venue could be significant. Four of his nine previous runners at this track have finished in the first four and the booking of Cian Quirke is another good sign. He has had four previous rides for the yard and he has finished in the first four on three of them.

Is this horse one for maximum stakes? Most certainly not, but he definitely has some level of ability and if he could repeat the form of his Kilbeggan maiden hurdle fourth over this trip in June, Island McCoo might outrun his odds of 40/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Island McCoo e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)

-Dave Stevos

2024 Becher Chase Ante-Post Tip

Tounsivator got the job done for us at Fairyhouse on Sunday. He was our only winner, but I think we got a half-decent run for our money with all four of our bets. Three of them returned as losers, but an 18/1 winner ensured we didn’t go home empty handed.

Next weekend, the main handicap attraction is the Becher Chase at Aintree. This is one of my favourite races on the calendar. Okay, the Grand National fences aren’t as fearsome as they once were but even so, I still think they take a bit of jumping and when a horse takes to the fences, like Highland Lodge and Vieux Lion Rouge a few years ago, it can pay to back them.

Back in 2022, I put Percussion up for this race at odds of 20/1. He was running off a mark of 130 that day and he finished third, 5.5l behind the winner Ashtown Lad. Laura Morgan’s charge has also run well over these fences over shorter trips and overall, his form figures over the National Fences read 32237. That seventh came in the Topham last month, but I am hoping that was a pipe opener for the main event.

Ideally, I’d like to see some good in the ground description for this lad, especially over this trip, but he does handle testing conditions. His owner’s record suggests he targets races at this track (25% win/60% place) and he also has Fantastic Lady entered, so I’ll probably have a small interest on her too. 

However, we know for a fact that Percussion enjoys jumping these fences and that he stays this far. As I mentioned earlier, I am hoping his last run was a prep for this and while it’s looking like he might have to run from a few pounds out of the handicap if Coko Beach or Chianti Classico take their chance, he is more than capable of being competitive off 130 or lower. At odds of 20/1, Percussion is well worth backing each way.

2024 Becher Chase Ante-Post Tip: Percussion e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP

-DaveStevos

2024 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Sunday Preview

Navajo Indy ensured it was a profitable day on Saturday. Sam Brown found things happening too quickly on the fast ground and Kinondo Kwetu just missed the place in fifth. On Sunday the focus switches to Fairyhouse in Ireland for their Hatton’s Grace and Royal Bond meeting. Last year, we managed to find Street Value at 25s in the Porterstown, hopefully we can land another biggie today.

12.00 – Mares’ Handicap Chase (140 = 11st 12lb)

The ground was officially described as yielding on Saturday but the times suggested that the chase course was a shade quicker than the hurdles course. Conditions might be a shade lively for the market leader La Malmaison and she lacks a run. The trip might be a touch short for Nine Graces and there are also trip and ground concerns for Sainte Dona.

The most solid option is probably the locally trained Must Be Obeyed. A course winner over 21.5f on soft to heavy, she has placed plenty of times on good to yielding, she is best going right handed and she shaped really nicely on good ground in a Listed chase on her seasonal bow. Only two are priced up at double figures and I don’t fancy either of them so this is a race I am going to leave alone. No bet.

Stevos’ Selection: No Bet

12.30 – Bar One Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 3)

The one I like here at half-decent odds is the Willie McCreery trained Coul Dreamer. This horse first came to my attention on his debut at Gowran in August when he was backed at big odds. He finished a fine third in that contest on good to firm and he proved he could handle softer conditions when third in another maiden at Roscommon in October.

He was allowed to go off at 16/1 for his hurdling debut at Punchestown early last month. He made a mockery of those odds, making all in fine style to score by 9l. He beat two well punted Joseph O’Brien horses that day and bar making one error, he jumped pretty nicely.

Now, the Willie Mullins’ French recruit Willy De Houelly could obviously be anything and will likely be fit for his first run for 218 days but the oddsmakers underestimated Coul Dreamer on debut and I am hoping they are doing the same again. At 10/1, he is the each way selection.

Stevos’ Selection: Coul Dreamer e/w @ 10/1 NAP

1.05 – Porterstown Handicap Chase (Listed)

Last year Street Value ended a dire run for us in this race. He is back to defend his crown but unfortunately, he won’t get his favoured bottomless ground this time. The horse I am interested in at huge odds here is the Liz Doyle trained Flash De Touzaine.

This son of Kapgarde is 40/1 and to be fair, that’s probably justified given that he is 1-16 over fences. However, when he is on a going day he is a decent animal, such as when he was a fine 3.75l third behind Kitty’s Light in the 2023 Scottish Grand National (32f, good).

That run came off 130 and he races off 124 here. He shaped ok when fifth over 3m in a handicap hurdle at Gowran back in October and the trip was a valid excuse for his below par effort on his last start over fences at Galway. He ran much better at that track when fourth in the Blazers in August and previous to that, he finished a good second behind Railway Hurricane in a handicap chase at Wexford in July (19.5f, gd).

He ran a cracker on his only previous visit to this venue in a novice chase back in January 2022. He’s had very few chances over marathon trips on yielding or quicker and if he can rediscover the form he showed at Ayr last year, surely Flash De Touzaine can outrun his odds of 40/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Flash De Touzaine e/w @ 40/1 (5 places) NB

1.35 – Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)

As is often the case, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins hold strong hands in this. They have won all but one of the last ten renewals and in that time, only one winner has been chalked up at double figure odds.

Last season’s Champion Bumper runner up Romeo Coolio brings a big reputation into the race and he has been put in as the odds on fav. He won a bumper here, he hacked up on his hurdling debut last month and he is probably going to be hard to beat.

No Mug

His stablemate Bleu De Vassy is no mug either. He won his maiden hurdle here over 18f (good) and he followed up in a 2m Grade 3 at Navan last month. Belloccio is a top class horse on the flat and he is the shortest of the Mullins’ quintet. Sea Of Sands is another quality flat performer and it is pretty hard to see those four out of the frame.

However, with a rating of 138 and an experience edge over most of his rivals, I am taking a chance on Tounsivator. Short headed in the Tribes at Galway (16.5f, good to yielding), he hacked up on his next start in a novice at Kilbeggan (18.5f, good) and he wasn’t disgraced in a Listed handicap at Listowel on his last start.

This ground should be fine for him, he likes going right handed and the last time an ‘outsider’ won this, Danny Mullins was on board. At odds of 18/1, Tounsivator is the each way tip.

Stevos’ Selection: Tounsivator e/w @ 18/1

2.05 – Drinmore Novice Chase (Grade 1)

Just six runners and it is hard to see beyond the fav Firefox. He jumped nicely on his chase debut, he has won round here before over hurdles and he was mixing it at the top table last season over timber. Heart Wood and Gorgeous Tom might make a race of it for the in-form Henry De Bromhead but this is a race to just watch and enjoy for me. No bet.

Stevos’ Selection: No Bet

2.40 – Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (Grade 1)

The lowest turnout for this race since Voler La Vedette won in 2011. It features the champion staying hurdler Teahupoo against a speedier sort in Lossiemouth.  Who wins? With those two priced up at 6/5 and 4/5 respectively, to be honest, I couldn’t give a monkey’s. A crap race. No bet.

Stevos’ Selection: No bet

3.10 – Bar One Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

A nice and easy get out of jail stakes with fifteen going to post for this 16.5f Listed handicap hurdle. In the hope that the return to this venue sparks a resurgence in form, I’ll take a chance on Glan at a nice e/w price here.

Trained by Gordon Elliott, this inconsistent mare didn’t run too badly on her penultimate start on the flat at Bellewstown in August. A slow start was no good to her over 1m1f at Listowel last time out and she wasn’t totally disgraced on her last start in this sphere when finishing in midfield in a mares’ handicap at the Galway Festival.

Her form figures at this track over hurdles read 121. She won her maiden here, she was second in this race in 2021 and then in 2022 she landed a nice pot in a handicap hurdle at the Irish Grand National meeting. That win came off 123 and with Carl Millar’s 5lb claim, she is effectively just 4lb higher here.

Maybe she is gone at the game, but maybe she isn’t and if she is going to bounce back, this is the most likely place it will happen. So, at odds of 20/1, a small e/w interest on Glan is advised.

Stevos’ Selection: Glan e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Cheltenham Sunday Preview

We have already backed Churchstonewarrior for the Troytown, read why here. I also have one for the Greatwood tomorrow. Each way singles and an e/w double advised.

3.30 Cheltenham – Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

All the talk in the lead up to this race has been about Dysart Enos. I have heard some pundits say she is the best handicapped horse in training, which might well be true, but as regular readers of the blog will know, I am not a fan of backing horses on their handicap debuts.

This mare has had just three starts over hurdles and they came in novice hurdles. In those races, probably at least 75% of her rivals were only out for a spin to get a mark, whereas in this ultra-competitive sixteen runner handicap, a lot more horses will be there to do their best.

Her lack of experience in races like this has to rate as a big negative and she also lacks a run. Now, on  a literal reading of her bumper win when beating Golden Ace would suggest a mark of 131 is generous, but whether she will be able to exploit it today is another question altogether.

Battle Hardened

The one I am going to back has already won a similarly competitive, big field handicap and we were on him at a nice price when he won it. Cracking Rhapsody, trained up in Scotland by Ewan Whillans, landed the Morebattle at Kelso in March off a mark of 119. He absolutely hosed up and he then followed that up with a sterling effort in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr, beat a length off 128.

He made his return to action at Hexham in a Mickey Mouse handicap early last month and he shaped well in a race that wasn’t run to suit. He is suited by big fields and a proper gallop, and he should get both of those things today. Craig Nichol knows him well, he has already placed in a hot handicap off just 1lb lower than he is here and the ground should be fine for him. At odds of 22/1, back Cracking Rhapsody e/w.

2024 Cheltenham & Navan Sunday Tip: Cracking Rhapsody e/w @ 22/1 (5 places) NB

Also: Cracking Rhapsody 22s & Churchstonewarrior 14s e/w double (both 5 places)

Warrior Can Strike In The Troytown

This Sunday at Navan we have one of the first major staying handicap chases of the season. The Troytown Chase is a race that Gordon Elliott likes to target and he has won it six times since 2014. Last year he had four of the first five finishers, including the 20/1 winner, Coko Beach.

This year, Elliott is responsible for twelve of the remaining 25 entries and all the talk has been about American Mike, who has been put in as the 5/1 ante-post favourite. A Grade 2 novice chase winner over C&D on heavy in February, his best form is on testing ground and he won’t be getting those conditions on Sunday, if the weather forecast is correct.

The one I have come down on is another C&D winner but unlike the fav, his peak efforts have come on ground with good in the description. Churchstonewarrior will be having his third start for Cian Collins on Sunday. He shaped ok on his stable debut at Tramore after a break and he then ran a lovely race on soft ground when fourth behind Flooring Porter in the Kerry National at Listowel in September.

Yes, he was beaten 20l behind the runaway winner but he got hampered at the tenth fence and he finished well ahead of the likes of Zanahiyr and Perceval Legallois, both of whom could re-oppose here. I thought it was a very pleasing effort considering the underfoot conditions and he’ll be much better suited by the sounder surface on Sunday.

When he won his Grade 2 novice here in 2023 it was on good to yielding ground, the same type of ground on which he won his novice hurdle. In that Grade 2 Chase he beat Mahler Mission by 0.75l off level weights and he is now rated 155, Churchstonewarrior runs off 146 here. Since then, he hasn’t hit the same heights but in his defence, he’s only had his favoured ground once and that was for his Kerry National prep run.

I am hoping that returning to the scene of his career best performance and the prospect of nice ground will enable this son of Mahler to get his head back in front. He should be fully fit now after two runs for Cian Collins and given that he has won here before, this may have always been the aim. Once the rain stays away, Churchstonewarrior is capable of running a massive race and he is worth backing e/w at odds of 16/1.

2024 Troytown Chase Tip: Churchstonewarrior e/w @ 16/1 NAP (1/4 odds, 4 places)

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip

The race that stops a nation and also the race I can never seem to get right. I think I have managed one place in the last five years but God loves a trier, as the saying goes, se we’ll do just that and try again.

The one that will have to carry the double penalty of the Stevos’ shilling this year is the former Andrew Balding inmate, Saint George. Now trained Down Under by Ciaron Maher, this 4yo grey son of Roaring Lion was good enough to place second in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase last year when trained by Balding. He found just Gregory too good by 0.5l and that horse hasn’t been beaten far in some top staying races this season.

He got to within 4.25l of Kyprios when third in the Goodwood Cup (a head behind Sweet William). At York in the G2 Lonsdale Cup he was 3l behind the fav for this race, Vauban, off level weights. So, on a line through Gregory, Saint George looks weighted to beat that rival getting 12lbs from him.

Two Fine Efforts

This lad has had three runs since moving to Australia and two of them have been fine efforts. On his Aussie debut he was beaten just half a length in a G3 handicap at Caulfield over 10f. He just lacked the pace to get up in the final furlong but he kept on well and it was a very encouraging effort considering it was his first run for over a year.

Two weeks later he didn’t run to his best at Flemington upped to 12f but the ground was good to soft and this horse is best on good or quicker. Even so, he seemed to handle the track well and despite finishing ninth, he was beaten just over 4l for the win.

Last time out in the Moonee Valley Cup it was much more like it. Dropped out early, his jockey was in no hurry to put him into the race. With just 200m to go he was still last and seemingly going nowhere but once his rider got stuck into him, with less than 100m to go, he picked up really well and finished off very strongly for fifth.

He finished just 3l behind Okita Sushi and he is 2lb better off with that rival now. He was 0.5l behind Sharp And Smart and I think he can turn that form around over this longer trip. Going up to two miles should really suit this fella and his dam is by Galileo, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue.

I am not too familiar with his jockey, Tyler Schiller, but he has ridden three winners in the last fortnight so he won’t be lacking in confidence. With no rain forecast, Saint George should get his favoured underfoot conditions and with five places on offer, he is worth chancing each way at odds of 25/1.

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip: Saint George e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

One For Friday At Cheltenham

After a torrid couple of weeks on the flat, I am glad to have some jumping action to get stuck into this weekend. First of all, Famed Again was far too keen early on at the Curragh on Tuesday. My hope was that she might settle better in the hood but she didn’t and there’s also a chance that the run may have come to soon after her big run at Naas. I still think she’ll win plenty of races.

The one I am interested in at Cheltenham on Friday goes in the amateur riders’ handicap at 3.35. I am hoping that Wick Green, trained by Ben Pauling, has been aimed this race. The 11yo son of Sagamix was a fine third in this last year, beaten just 1.5L off a mark of 121. A month later, he was fourth over 3m1f back here, beaten 5.75l off 122.

He then came back for a X-Country handicap chase in December and while he only finished eighth, he was running from 12lb out of the handicap so to be beaten 13 odd lengths wasn’t a bad effort. Subsequent to that run the 11yo ran below par races at Wincanton and Southwell in February and March and he was poor again in two runs after a 143 day break at Worcester in July/August.

However, the old boy shaped much better after another short break three weeks ago. He finished third of six, 6.5L behind Musical Slave at Fontwell (26f, gd/sft). That came off 117 and the handicapper has dropped him another 2lb to 115.

That means he is now 8lb lower than when beaten 1.5l in this last year and 2lb below his last winning mark. His rider has yet to win a race under rules but after doing some digging he has ridden winners in point to points so he isn’t totally inexperienced. Good ground will suit, he has run two of the best races of his life at this venue and the first time visor might bring back some spark so at odds of 33/1, an each way bet is advised.

Cheltenham Friday Tip: 3.35 – Wick Green e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

Famed Too Big At The Curragh

It was a bad day for us on Saturday at Ascot. Sweet William landed the e/w NB place money but apart from that, it was a day to forget. It is rare that I tip up horses in midweek on this blog but I am making an exception this week. There is a Group 3 race for 2yo fillies at the Curragh tomorrow and a couple look a touch overpriced to my eye.

First of all, Tamam Desert looks big at 22/1. After shaping with huge potential on her debut at Leopardstown, she confirmed that promise by winning at the Galway Festival. She still looked pretty green that day but she ran on well to just get up in that 7f heat and on that evidence, and on her breeding, this step up to a mile looks certain to suit.

She should go well but at an even bigger price, Famed Again is very interesting. Trained by Tom Cooper, who is better known for his exploits in the National Hunt sphere, this filly finished third behind Tamam Desert in that Galway maiden. She was only 1.75l behind that rival and she didn’t get as clear a run so she is more than capable of closing that gap.

However, the run that really caught my eye was her effort in the valuable 7f Auction race at Naas won by another of today’s rivals, Fiona Maccoul. Draw in stall 2, Ronan Whelan bustled her up the inside to get a decent early position. However, once she got into that position she began to race extremely keenly, fighting her jockey for the guts of a furlong and a half.

Despite those early antics, she kept on really well late on and she just failed to get third. At the line she was just over a length behind the winner, to whom she was conceding 4lbs, and a half a length behind her in fifth was Sigh No More, a Group 3 winner at Leopardstown on her next start. She was getting 6lbs from that rival but even so, it was an excellent effort.

On pedigree there’s a good chance a mile will suit and her effort at Galway suggested it would pose no problems too. Cooper now applies the hood, which will hopefully help her to settle better, and the quiet hands of Colin Keane could be a big help in that department too.

The assessor has rated her 78 and I think he could be wrong. I think she deserves to be rated at least in the mid-80s on the back of her last two runs and the fact that Cooper is running here instead of going for a nursery suggests that he might think the same. 

Keane is 1/9 with another five top four finishes when riding for the yard (66% frame hitting strike rate) so at odds of 66/1, surely Famed Again is worth throwing a few pennies at each way. Hopefully she can nick some precious black type. 

Stevos’ Selection: Famed Again e/w @ 66/1

2024 Champions Day – Soft Ground E/W Lucky 15

At the time of writing, it looks like soft ground is a certainty for Champions Day on Saturday. We have already backed Moss Tucker e/w at 66/1 for the Sprint, you can read why here. Obviously, he’ll be one of the selections for our soft ground e/w lucky 15, find out who else is getting the nod below.

2.35 – Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes

The one that interests me at a big price here is the exceptionally well bred filly Doha. Trained by Ralph Beckett, whose horses are in red hot form, this 4yo daughter of Sea The Stars is out of Treve, a two time Arc winner that handled soft ground. She has yet to hit the heights of her extremely talented mum but she is an improving filly and she is unexposed at this 1m4f trip on testing ground.

She has managed to win three of her eight turf starts, including the Kensington Palace here at the Royal Meeting over 1m on fast ground. Yes, that was only a handicap but she has run very well in three of her four starts in stakes company, culminating in a comfortable Listed win at Saint-Cloud on her latest start earlier this month.

She ran through the line strong in that 10f contest on very soft ground and on that evidence, this 1m4f trip looks well worth a try. On her penultimate start, over 8f on good ground in a Sandown G3 she found only Tamfana too good by 2.75l and she was conceding 6lb to the subsequent Sun Chariot winner who is now rated 118. That form looks alright to me, she has form figures of 1122 on soft ground and if this trip ekes out a bit more improvement, she could sneak into the frame here at odds of 33/1.

2024 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes Tip: Doha e/w @ 33/1

3.15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Charyn is a really likeable colt and he is going to be hard to beat here. However, like Tamfana, he’ll be having his seventh run of the season so there is a chance that they might be vulnerable to a fresher horse.

The one that looks most overpriced to me back on soft ground is the Roger Teal trained Dancing Gemini. He’s had just four runs this season and his best run, by far, came in the French 2000 Guineas on his first run back. He finished off his race powerfully for second, half a length behind Metropolitan who is an 8/1 shot here.

Since then, Metropolitan has run crackers in a pair of 8f G1s here and at Deauville, whereas things have not gone as smoothly for Dancing Gemini. Teal was convinced he’d stay further than a mile, but he doesn’t. He ran a creditable race in the Epsom Derby to finish sixth, but he faded late on. Even 10f proved too much of a stretch on his penultimate start at Sandown.

Last time out, Dancing Gemini ran in a Goodwood G3 back at a mile but I don’t think he was in love with the good to firm ground. He’s been given a 78 day break since, so he should be nice and fresh for this first run at a mile on soft ground since the French Guineas. He is 5x the price of Metropolitan, with whom he has just half a length to find on that Longchamp form. If he can repeat that run, Dancing Gemini can outrun his odds of 40/1.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Tip: Dancing Gemini e/w @ 40/1

4.35 – Balmoral Handicap

The final leg of our soft ground e/w lucky 15 is going to be Star Of Orion. Trained by the in form Eve Johnson Houghton, this son of Footstepsinthesand is a very consistent animal. Yes, he has only won three of his thirty two starts but he has finished second or third on thirteen occasions and since 2023, he has finished out of the first four just three times in fourteen starts.

His last win came off 91 on good to soft ground at Newmarket in July 2023. Since then he has hit the frame off 97 here over 7f, twice at Sandown off 96 and he was far from disgraced finishing seventh off that mark over 7f back here again earlier this month.

The 6yo has some solid form at this track. He has been beaten less than a length twice in big field 7f handicaps off 94 and 95 and he was beaten a short head off 97 here over 7f back in 2021. Is he well handicapped off 96? Probably not, but he has shown on multiple occasions he can be competitive off this kind of mark and at the prices we are playing at, a place will do.

He has yet to win over a mile or on soft ground but he has run some huge races in defeat. A year ago at York he was beaten 1.25L off 95 on soft ground over 1m at York and at Newmarket earlier this season, he was beaten 0.5l on good ground at 8f off 94. If he can finish as close to the winner here, it’ll hopefully be enough to get the place so at 33/1, Star Of Orion is the e/w selection.

2024 Balmoral Handicap Selection: Star Of Orion e/w @ 33/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

So, these are our four legs for our Champions Day Soft Ground e/w Lucky 15:

Champions Sprint: Moss Tucker @ 50/1

Champions Fillies And Mares: Doha @ 33/1

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes: Dancing Gemini @ 40/1

Balmoral Handicap: Star Of Orion @ 33/1

-DaveStevos

Mossy Can Prosper In The Muck At Ascot

Last weekend, most of my selections got stuck in the mud at Newmarket and York. Conditions look like being equally as gruelling at Ascot for Champions Day and if it comes up soft or heavy, Moss Tucker can make his presence felt in the Sprint.

We have done well in this race in the past. Donjuan Triumphant won for us at 33s, Brando was beaten a nose at 80s and we also had Run To Freedom in 2022 when he finished second at 150/1. Moss Tucker is currently chalked up at 66/1 but he is capable of making a mockery of those odds if he gets his favoured underhoof conditions.

It looks like this son of Excelebration has been trained for a backend soft ground campaign. After looking better than ever on his seasonal return in April at Naas (5f, yielding), he then disappointed on good ground at the Curragh in May. He was left off for over three months after that run and he made his return in the Sprint Cup at Haydock.

Unfortunately, the ground was good that day, just as it was when he ran down the field in the Flying Five at the Currah. Two weeks ago he did get soft ground in the L’Abbaye at Longchamp but unfortunately, the draw gods conspired against him and he never figured.

He didn’t have a hard race that day and I believe 6f on testing ground on a track like Ascot should really suit him. His career form figure on soft to heavy/heavy read 1151 with the fifth coming when he probably needed the run on his seasonal comeback last year. One of the wins came over 6f at the Curragh, where he beat Big Gossey by almost 4l.

Moss Tucker is already a Group 1 winner over 5f, he’s won a Group 3 over 6f and he’s a triple Listed winner at 5f/6f. He’s been totally written off for this by the bookies and to be honest, that is understandable on the back of his last four runs.

However, as I pointed out earlier, he has had excuses for all of those efforts and I think we’ll see a much better version of Mossy at Ascot on Saturday. At odds of 66/1, he is worth backing each way. Fingers crossed for lots of rain!

2024 Champions Sprint Stakes Tip: Moss Tucker e/w @ 66/1

-DaveStevos