2025 Newmarket 1000 Guineas Ante-Post Tip

I had set my stall out to put up an e/w Guineas double this evening. However, after spending the best part of two hours studying the 2000, I have decided to just focus on the 1000. There are too many unknowns regarding the participation of a lot of the outsiders in the 2000 Guineas so we’ll just have to make do with finding a bit of e/w value in the 1000.

The unbeaten Godolphin filly Desert Flower is odds on with a few firms. She was a brilliant two year old, winning four from four and producing a scintillating display to win the Fillies’ Mile on her final start of 2024. She’s clearly a very talented horse and if she has trained on, she is the one to beat.

Ballydoyle’s leading hope is also unbeaten. Lake Victoria, by Frankel and out of the brilliant Ontoawinner sprinter Quiet Reflection, is already a three time G1 winner. She saw out the mile well in the Breeders’ Cup and to be honest, I am surprised that she is as big as 4/1. That’s not big enough for us though and I am going to roll the dice with one at a far bigger price.

Taking On The Big Guns

Jack Channon is taking on the big guns here with Hey Boo. She is by Iffraaj, a sire who has produced top class milers Ribchester, Audience and the brilliant 2yo sprinter and current Coolmore sire, Wootton Bassett. As an aside, his covering fee is just £10k now. Surely one of the biggest bargains out there.

Hey Boo’s half-sister is a Group 3 winner and while the dam side of her pedigree isn’t as illustrious as some of her rivals, she is still a nicely enough bred filly. She must have been too big to run as a two year old as she didn’t make her debut until February this year at Chelmsford. She won that 7f novice by 0.75l beating a 72 rated rival, hardly Guineas worthy form I hear you say.

She carried a penalty on her next start in March over the came C&D and it was a similar outcome. The third came out and won a maiden at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting on her next start so there is a little bit more substance to that form.

In both of those AW wins she didn’t do any more than she had to but the bookies weren’t too impressed and she was sent off at 40/1 for her turf debut in the Fred Darling at Newbury (the race that produced last year’s 1000 Guineas winner).

Ran On Strongly

Hey Boo broke nicely but she raced keenly for the first couple of furlongs. Once the two groups merged and she got a bit of cover she settled well and while she proved no match for the winner Duty First, she ran on strongly in the closing stages to finish a clear second and it looked to my eye that she was only starting to hit top gear when she crossed the line.

On the evidence of that effort, this filly is going to be even better stepped up to a mile. She won’t get away with racing as keenly in this race but if her rider can get her covered up early, she should settle just fine.

Straight To The Guineas

After her Newbury run Jack Channon stated “It'll be straight to the Guineas. I'm delighted with her. It was Hey Boo's first time on the grass after two wins on the all-weather and she'll come on a ton. She'll improve for the mile and I wouldn't swap her.”

We know she’ll definitely run barring misfortune, the trainer and I agree that she’ll improve for the mile and while she hasn’t got the profile of a typical Guineas’ winner, I think she could well outrun her odds of 66/1. Hopefully she can sneak into the places.

2025 Newmarket 1000 Guineas Ante-Post Tip: Hey Boo e/w @ 66/1

-DaveStevos

2025 Irish Grand National Ante-Post Tip

It feels like a lifetime ago that we backed Lord Lariat to win the Irish National at 80/1 in 2022. We have come up dry in the last two renewals but I am hoping that this 100/1 shot can give us a run for our money after all the rain that has fallen in the last couple of days.

Back in January we backed Macs Charm for the Thyestes Chase at Gowran. I thought he was well handicapped off 135 and that the ground had come right for him but he didn’t jump brilliantly and he ended up finishing eighth, 32l behind the subsequent Aintree National winner Nick Rockett and 8l behind Yeah Man in fourth.

Weak In The Betting

Given how weak he was in the market that day, just like he was when finishing seventh in the National Trial at Punchestown last time out, I’m not sure he was fully wound up for those contests. If he gets into the race on Easter Monday, which he should do (needs six to come out), surely he’ll be trying his hardest.

The rain that has fallen, with more due to come, is in his favour and he is now 5lb lower than when winning at this meeting in 2023. He’s also entered in that race on Monday but surely that’s just a contingency plan in case he doesn’t get into the big one.

Surprisingly, this will be the first time he has raced at Fairyhouse since that impressive win and that was the last time he got his head in front. I’m not sure he wants bottomless ground at this trip but I’d imagine it should be somewhere between yielding to soft and if it is Macs Charm could outrun his price of 100/1. At those odds, he's worth chancing e/w for small stakes. Fingers crossed he gets in. 

2025 Irish Grand National Ante-Post Tip: Macs Charm e/w @ 100/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Wednesday Tips

A dreaded blank on Tuesday. Probe was never put into the race, watch out for him in the coming weeks. The Last Galileo didn’t handle the soft ground and the same sentiment applied to Biniorella Bay. Hopefully we can turn the ship around on Wednesday, my 2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Wednesday tips are blow.

1.50 – Bet365 Handicap (Class 2)

Many two year olds, especially sprinters, do not improve as they get older and that makes these early 3yo races very tricky to unpick. The one I’ll take a chance on at around 11/1 is the Hello Youmzain colt Gallant.

Trained by in form Andrew Balding, this horse has had a pipe opener on the AW when finishing 5.5l behind Diablo Rojo, a horse we backed last weekend in the Greenham Stakes. Gallant raced a bit keenly that day and it looked as though he’d come on plenty for the run.

He won a novice at Kempton last year, beating the now 95 rated West Acre by almost 2l. The third home is also now rated in the 90s so it was a pretty impressive performance. Gallant’s sole turf start came on debut at Salisbury and he was well beaten in fifth but the ground was good to firm that day.

His half-siblings Straight Right and Stone Roses showed their best turf form on ground with cut in it and his sire won a Group 1 on soft so I am hoping he’ll relish the rain-softened turf at Newmarket on Wednesday. At odds of 11/1, hopefully Gallant can sneak into the frame.

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Wednesday Tip: Gallant e/w @ 11/1 (4 places)

2.25 – Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 2)

An even bigger guessing game than the opener. This is a maiden for 3yos that have never run so similar to the Brocklesby, I’ll be trying to find one that might run well based mostly on breeding. The current fav, Altareq, is by the mighty Frankel and out of a half-sister to Awtaad so he certainly makes plenty of appeal on paper.

At bigger odds, High Stock has a really interesting page. Andrew Balding’s colt is by Dubawi, who needs no introduction. His unraced dam, Prosperine, is by the Japanese sire Hat Trick and she is a half sister to That Which Is Not (dam of stakes winners Yosemite Valley and Pid Bazile), Eccentricity (dam of stakes placed Alder & Radiantly), Flare Of Firelight (dam of G2 winner Threat) and Tymore (dam of G2 winner L’Astronome).

This suggests that while Prosperine hasn’t yet produced a top horse, there is every chance that she might and using Dubawi has surely increased her prospects of producing a good animal. At odds of 12/1, hopefully High Stock is the one.

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Wednesday Tip: High Stock e/w @ 12/1

3.00 – Abernant Stakes (Group 3)

Our old mate Run To Freedom makes a long awaited return to the track in this 6f Group 3. He only ran once last season so he must have suffered some sort of setback. Hopefully he retains all his ability and shows up nicely here but I’ll hold off on backing him today as there is a good chance he’ll need this run.

The fav Romantic Style will probably be hard to beat here but the likes of Sajir will enjoy the soft ground too so it isn’t a foregone conclusion. However, with just seven runners and two places on offer, his is a race I’ll be swerving. If Run To Freedom runs a nice race, that’ll do for me.

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Wednesday Tip: No bet

3.35 – Craven Stakes (Group 3)

We found Haatem at 16/1 in last year’s Craven Stakes, hopefully we can repeat the trick. Wimbledon Hawkeye has been very well backed after the rain. We almost landed a big win with this horse in the Acomb last year at York but we had to settle for the place money in second behind The Lion In Winter. Soft ground is fine for this son of Kameko, who is reportedly being trained with a tilt at the Epsom Derby in mind.

He looked like a mile was plenty sharp enough for him in the Futurity last year so he might already need further. The next two in the betting have to prove they handle easy ground and Field Of Gold is another one who has done his winning on a sounder surface than he’ll encounter here.

The most interesting one at a price is The Waco Kid. Trained by Hugo Palmer, this horse won his novice on fast ground at Newbury but his career best performance came on his sole start on soft and it came last September at this venue over 7f in the G3 Tattersalls Stakes.

He’s by Mehmas, who is a big speed influence, but his dam is by Galileo and she’s a half-sister to Kameko, so a mile should be well within his compass. You can put a line through his last run in the Breeders’ Cup as the ground was firm and the tight, turning track may not have been to his liking.

This test should suit him much better, he’ll love the ground and we know he likes the undulations of Newmarket. With a rating of 109 he won’t have to improve that much to hit the frame here and at odds of 25/1, The Waco Kid is worth backing e/w.

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Wednesday Tip: The Waco Kid e/w @ 25/1 NAP

-DaveStevos

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tips

Two places on Saturday, with both drifting. Betty Clover ended up at 80s and our NAP Flash de Touzaine returned at 33s. It just goes to show, market weakness does not always equate a poor performance. In fact, with best odds guaranteed it results in a Brucey bonus. Now, we switch our focus to flat HQ, Dave’s 2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday preview and tips are below.

1.50 – Weatherbys Handicap (Class 2)

With rain forecast overnight, it might be worth taking a chance on Probe in this open looking handicap. Trained by Jennie Candlish, this former C&D winner has slipped to a dangerous mark. He wasn’t beaten all that far on his last start off 90 at Doncaster and the assessor handed him another 2lb back after that run.

The son of Kingman now races off 88, 2lb lower than he was when winning a big pot over C&D in May 2023. He was beaten a length in this race off the same mark two weeks earlier and this will be his first time back at HQ since. Those two runs came on good to soft and it is currently quicker than that at Newmarket but the app I use is showing up to 16mm of rain in the early hours and if they get that, it should take any jar out of the ground.

Probe has run well on good to firm before, so all is not lost if the rain misses. However, in an ideal world they’ll get even more than forecast and if that happens, it will enhance his chance. Kieran O’Neill rode for that previous C&D win and he’s back on board today so, at odds of 20/1, Probe is the e/w selection.

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: Probe e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP

2.25 – Feilden Stakes (Listed)

The first pattern race of the week is this 1m1f listed heat for 3yos only. Masai Moon is a warm order for Appleby and Buick but others in here have achieved more. On form, Nightwalker and Green Storm set the standard. However, they are priced up at 11/2 and 7/1 respectively, not much use to us.

Eight run here, so in the hope that he has improved plenty from two to three I am going to back Last Galileo e/w. He got off the mark at the second attempt at Ayr, knuckling down to see off Hornsea Bay. That rival is rated 88 and had previously won on debut by 3L so there is at least a little bit of substance to the form.

Last Galileo is obviously by a top sire and his full siblings Delphi and Credenza earned black type as 3yos. Karl Burke nicked third with an unconsidered 50/1 shot in this last year, hopefully he can repeat the trick with Last Galileo at odds of 33/1.

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: Last Galileo e/w @ 33/1 NB

3.00 – Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3)

Charlie Appleby has won the last three renewals of this race and in all honesty, he’ll probably win it again. He fires two bullets this year and given how little there is between them on paper, the second string First Conquest might represent the value at 8/1 (stablemate is 13/8).

Ambiente Friendly looks the chief danger and indeed, he is top rated by 5lb. With just six runners and only two places on offer, this is a race I am happy to just watch. No bet.

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: No bet

3.35 – Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3)

We managed to nail Pretty Crystal in this last year at 18/1 and this year, I am going to take a chance on one at even bigger odds. With a rating of 90, Biniorella Bay has no chance on paper of beating the likes of Arabian Dusk (108) and Celestial Orbit (104). However, she has been racing on slow ground since winning a novice impressively on good to firm on the July course here last June and she could be capable of much better now back on what should be a sounder surface.

It must be said that the form of that novice win didn’t work out but Clover’s filly proved herself to be smart when she was beaten just 2l in a 7f Deauville G3 last July despite encountering traffic problems. The ground was possibly too soft when she finished a 3.5l fourth in a Goodwood G3 in August and she probably wasn’t suited by the AW when running below par at Chelmsford in October.

By New Bay, her dam is out of a half-sister to the top class Postponed so the bloodline is there and Jack Mitchell returns to the plate for the first time since her novice win. All of the top eight horses in the betting lack a run, so my hope is that Clover has this filly as fit as possible with the aim of sneaking some precious black type. At odds of 50/1, Biniorella Bay is the e/w selection.

2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: Biniorella Bay e/w @ 50/1

-DaveStevos

2025 Aintree Grand National Meeting Day 2

Now it is time for our 2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 2 tips, see who Dave fancies below.

1.45 – Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

The one that looks a shade overpriced in the opener is Jordans. Trained by Joseph O’Brien, this 6yo ran a decent race to finish fifth in the Plate at Cheltenham last month. To be honest, I was surprised he went down that route because on his previous start at Limerick, he shaped as though he’d be well up to being competitive in Grade 1 company.

In that 19.5f contest he was held up off the pace and finished off very nicely to take second, 4l behind Impaire Et Passe and we all saw what he did here on Day 1.

The question is, will Jordans stay this much longer trip? He is by Coastal Path and out of a Network dam, so he is bred along similar lines to the likes of Ideal Des Bordes and Job, two horses that have both won over 3m plus. His Limerick effort suggested he’d stay further and with odds of 18/1 available, it is worth taking the chance that he does.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 2 Tip: Jordans e/w @ 18/1  

2.20 – W Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

This is wide open. Elliott and Skelton have a decent recent record in it and they have three runners between them this year. Skelton runs two, the beaten Coral Cup gamble Be Aware with Harry Skelton on board and the mare Listentoyourheart, who will be partnered by the 7lb claimer Harry Atkins.

Clearly, they think Be Aware is well handicapped given the money that came at Cheltenham but he’s just 7/1 and this looks a tough assignment for Listentoyourheart on her handicap debut. Beacon Edge is Gordon Elliott’s sole representative and while he should run his race, it is hard to argue that he is well treated off 145.

One that might go well at bigger odds is the Jonathan Sweeney trained Western Walk. Back in May he finished a close up fourth in a hot 2m4f handicap at the Punchestown Festival off 132, just his third handicap start. He then followed that up with a fine second off a pound higher at Ballinrobe over 2m6f.

Beacon Edge finished 1.25l ahead of Western Walk at Punchestown and Sweeney’s charge is weighted to turn that around. He had a spin around Naas four weeks ago, which will have blown away any cobwebs, and while he stays further than this, I am hoping they go a good gallop early and he finishes off strongly.

His form figures on ground with good in the description over hurdles read 2412 and while he is an 8yo, he is relatively lightly raced so there might be a bit more to come from him. At odds of 28/1, Western Walk is the e/w selection.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 2 Tip: Western Walk e/w @ 28/1 (5 places) NB

2.55 – Top Novice’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

A couple of the main protagonists from the Supreme rock up in this 16.5f Grade 1. Romeo Coolio, who finished third, and Salavator Mundi, who was 11l behind that rival back in fifth are 11/8 and 6/1 respectively. At 3/1 is Fergal O’Brien’s Tripoli Flyer, who swerved the Supreme on account of the easy ground. He ran a cracker in a Grade 2 bumper at this meeting last year and this test could be ideal for him. For me, he’s probably the one to beat.

The interesting one at bigger odds is the rapid improver, Jet To Vegas. Trained by Lucinda Russell, who traditionally does well at this festival, this son of Jetaway comes here on the back of a maiden hurdle win at Ayr (16f, soft) and a Grade 2 win at Kelso, where he lowered the colours of a well-backed Willie Mullins horse.

Now, this horse does have a tendency to jump a bit right handed but it hasn’t stopped him from winning on left-handed tracks the last twice. The handicapper gave him a rating of 137 for that Kelso victory, so he needs to improve again on paper, but he’s done nothing but improve on his last couple of starts so the trend could continue. At odds of 16/1, Jet To Vegas is the e/w selection.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 2 Tip: Jet To Vegas e/w @ 16/1

3.30 – Melling Chase (grade 1)

Just four runners and a race I will not be getting involved in. No strong opinion and no bet.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 2 Tip: No bet

4.05 – Topham Handicap Chase (Premier)

The one I’ve had my eye on for some time for this race is Fantastic Lady. Trained by Nicky Henderson, this 10yo daughter of Network has a fine record over the National fences. She was a touch unlucky to unseat at the first in this race in 2022 but since then, she has finished second and sixth in this in 2023 and 2024, and she’s just 1lb higher than when beaten 1.75l in that 2023 renewal.

All of her previous completed runs over these fences have come on soft or heavy ground. This will be the first time she gets ground with good in the description and four of her five career wins have come on that sort of a surface. James Bowen has won on her before, her owner is 5/20 with seven top 4 finishes at Aintree and if this mare gets a clear passage, she can hit the frame at odds of 25/1.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 2 Tip: Fantastic Lady e/w @ 25/1 (6 places) NAP

4.40 – Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

A very hard race to assess. Mister Meggitt hosed up in a 2m4f novice here on good ground in November on his seasonal reappearance and he has been freshened up for a tilt at this. However, he’s no banker to stay 3m on breeding and the fact that connections have decided to stick a tongue strap on is another cause for concern for his backers.

A lot of runners here are stepping up to 3m for the first time which further muddies the water. Julius Des Pictons is one of those but he has run blinders on both starts at 2m4f and while he was beaten in a listed hurdle at Exeter on his last start, that was over 2m.

He is by Cokoriko, a big stamina influence. His dam is unraced and there is scant information about her lineage online but she is by the same sire as Houblon Des Obeaux, a strong stayer. Julius Des Pictons finished just 0.75l behind Western Knight on his UK debut in an Uttoxeter maiden back in November on good ground over 2m4f yet his is over twice the odds of that rival on identical terms.

This isn’t one for maximum stakes but at 40/1, a small e/w interest is advised.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 2 Tip: Julius Des Pictons e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

2025 Aintree Grand National Meeting Day 1

We almost made an incredible start to the flat season on Saturday. Our 50/1 Brocklesby fancy Son Of Sarabi was beat a nose into second. However, our luck changed with our 33/1 NB Pearl Eye who was awarded the Spring Mile by the stewards (SP 50/1). On Sunday at Leopardstown Cercene ensured we didn’t go home empty handed, placing at 40s. I look forward to seeing how she'll be priced up for the Irish 1000 Guineas. Now it is time for our 2025 Aintree Grand National meeting day 1 tips, see who Dave fancies below.

1.45 – Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Jango Baie had a hard race at Cheltenham and while Impaire Et Passe is fresh, his jumping makes him hard to trust implicitly. I am a big fan of Croke Park and Gordon Elliott’s decision to swerve the festival and come here instead might pay handsome dividends.

In the hope that a couple of the market leaders misfire, I’m going to take a chance on The Kalooki Kid here for Nicky Richards and Danny McMenamin. A mid-120s hurdler, this grey son of Gentlewave has proved to be a much better chaser and he has won both of his last starts at around this trip.

He got off the mark over 19f at Doncaster in his second chase start in a novice handicap, winning easily by 5.5l off 124. A 7lb rise wasn’t enough to stop him following up at Musselburgh where he beat a decent handicapper in Saint Segal and he now comes into this race rated 138.

Clearly, he needs to improve again to trouble the best of these but he’s fresh, he’s still relatively young and there could easily be more to come. At odds of 25/1, The Kalooki Kid is the each way selection.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 1 Tip: The Kalooki Kid e/w @ 25/1

2.20 – Boodles 4yo Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)

He isn’t a massive price but if Wendrock can reproduce the form of his Leopardstown maiden win when he beat subsequent Grade 1 runner up Galileo Dame, I think he can go very close here at odds of 11/1.

Yes, he finished 7.5l behind Putyourhandstogether in the juvenile handicap at Cheltenham but he’s now 6lb better off with that rival and Gordon Elliott’s horses are in better form now. Wendrock was 10 horses wide coming into the final turn and ended up making his challenge up the inner. It wasn’t Jack Kennedy’s finest hour and I suspect he may have still been feeling the effects of the injury that almost ruled him out of the festival.

When he won at Leopardstown Sam Ewing always had him close to the pace and I am hoping that similar tactics are employed here. If they are, hopefully Wendrock will hit the frame on ground he should enjoy at odds of 11/1.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 1 Tip: Wendrock e/w @ 11/1

2.55 – Golden Miller Bowl Chase (Grade 1)

It is hard to make a case for anything at a big price here. We backed The Real Whacker in the Gold Cup but he weakened at almost the exact same point as he did when running in the race a year previously. He might have a better chance of staying this less taxing test but I am happy to let him run without the weight of my money this time.

Djelo won a class 3 handicap chase here over 2m back in 2023 but he never figured here last year over the same trip. He may do better over this longer distance but he ran a stinker at Cheltenham and it is hard to be confident in him after that tame effort.

The rest of the field are priced up at 10/1 or shorter and I wouldn’t be taking those sort of odds about the likes of Ahoy Senor or Gaelic Warrior. Embassy Gardens would be of interest on testing ground but on good to soft, he has it to prove. I am happy to leave this race alone. No bet.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 1 Tip: No bet

3.30 – Aintree Hurdle (grade 1)

Just seven run here and I am afraid this is another race I’ll just be watching. If the old Constitution Hill turns up, he’ll be hard to beat but he’s starting to remind me of Buveur d’Air. Like Constitution Hill, he fell when fancied to make it three in a row in the Champion Hurdle and he also made a couple of similar mistakes in two of his prep runs for that race. He went on to get beaten at Aintree and I fear it could be a similar story for Constitution Hill.

Lossiemouth was impressive against the mares at Cheltenham and she looks well placed to take advantage if Constitution does make more mistakes. The fly in the ointment could be Wodhooh but you’d have to think that her stylish win at Cheltenham took a bit out of her and this is a quick enough turnaround. However, she looks a Grade 1 horse all over and if it doesn’t happen here, she will be dining at the top table next season.

If there were three places on offer, I would probably back Take No Chances again. She landed the place money for us at tasty odds at Cheltenham but it is hard to see her turning the 9.25l deficit to Lossiemouth around. Hopefully the big dogs all turn up in top form and put in a clear round. If they do, it should be a cracking race to watch.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 1 Tip: No bet

4.40 – Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier)

I mentioned on X that my best bet of the week was running on Day 1 and if you haven’t guessed who it is by now, you must be a relatively new follower. It is the one, the only, the inimitable, Tommy’s Oscar. Long time followers will know how much I rate this horse and it looks like the Hamiltons, who love Aintree and who have had winners at this meeting before, have laid him out for this big pot.

It has been a quiet campaign for Tommy but Ann Hamilton’s horses weren’t running well in the early part of the season. On his last two outings he’s been ridden by Sean Quinlan and the 3lb claimer Peter Kavanagh but today he is reunited with the jockey who has been on board for nine of his twelve career wins, Danny McMenamin.

The upside of his three moderate runs this season is that his mark has fallen from 157 to 152. The last time he was rated 152 was last April at Ayr’s Scottish National meeting and he hosed up in a G3 handicap chase over 16.5f. He has run once at this track before, in the Old Roan Grade 2 Handicap Chase off 157, and travelled very well but didn’t quite see his race out over that 2m4f trip.

This is a much more suitable distance for him and the Hamiltons are 3/13 with two seconds and a fourth at this venue (+29.50 to a 1 unit stake), a remarkable record for such a small operation. Tommy’s Oscar is a 160 horse on his day and if he is in peak form on Thursday, he is capable of going very close here at odds of 16/1 off 152. Hopefully he does the business.

2025 Aintree Grand National meeting Day 1 Tip: Tommy’s Oscar e/w @ 18/1 NAP (4 places)

-DaveStevos

2025 Leopardstown Classic Trials Meeting Preview

Whip Cracker got badly hampered, as did Rose Prick, and Chic Colombine was simply out for a Saturday stroll. It wasn’t all bad news though. Son Of Sarabi did everything but win the Brocklesby for us at 50/1 and it looked like Pearl Eye did the same but our 33/1 NB got the race in the stewards’ room. Now, the focus switches to the Emerald Isle for the Derby and Guineas’ trials, check out my 2025 Leopardstown Classic Trials meeting preview below.

2.35 – Red Rocks Stakes (Group 3)

Frustratingly two of the three Group 3s at Leopardstown today have just seven runners, a pain for e/w players like ourselves. However, even with just the two places available, I am going to take a chance on Tribal Nation here.

A son of Wootton Bassett, he got off the mark at the third attempt in a Galway maiden last year. That came over 7f on very testing ground but he ran well enough in his first two races on good, so the yielding ground at Leopardstown should be fine for him.

On ratings, with a mark of 90 this horse has to improve plenty on paper to trouble the top two in the betting. Henri Matisse is rated 116 and Arizona Blaze 110, but I suspect those horses would prefer the ground to be closer to good to firm.

Tribal Nation’s dam Indian Blessing won at listed level on good to soft and a G3 on good, which augurs well, as does the fact that Joseph and McMonagle fired in a double at the Curragh on Saturday. At odds of 14/1, Tribal Nation is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.

Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Tribal Nation e/w @ 14/1

3.10 – Priory Belle Stakes (Group 3)

The one that looks well overpriced here, once the ground dries out to good to yielding, is Joe Murphy’s filly Cercene. A big eyecatcher on her Gowran debut (7f, good) she made no mistake second time up at Naas (7f, good). Two furlongs out she still had plenty to do but once the penny dropped she quickened up smartly down the outside and won more comfortably than the winning distance of 2.25l suggests.

That form has been boosted big time in the last week or so. The runner up, Rowdy Yeats, came out and hosed up in a maiden on his seasonal reappearance back at Naas last weekend, after which he was given a rating of 94. Noel Meade said post-race he hoped he was a stakes horse. In third was Bodhi Bear who beat Mathan on his next start, and Mathan won a 7f maiden at the Curragh yesterday by over 3l.

Cercene has been dismissed by the bookmakers because she ran poorly when stepped into G3 company on her final start of last season. However, she hated the soft ground that day and I firmly believe she is a lot better than the rating of 87 she has been handed by the handicapper.

Murphy won’t run her if the ground is too soft, which is a bit of insurance for us, but if the ground is quick enough and she does take her chance, Cercene is well capable of outrunning her dismissive odds of 40/1.

Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Cercene e/w @ 40/1

3.45 – Ballysax Stakes (Group 3)

Adrian Murray pulled off a monumental shock in this race last year with Dallas Star at 50/1. This year, he runs two and I think Tiberius Thunder is worth a second look at odds of 14/1. Yes, it probably wasn’t the strongest of maidens he won at Dundalk over a mile on debut but he ran green and that trip is probably his absolute minimum. He should be well suited by the step up to 1m2f and a slight ease in the ground.

He’s by a top sire in Night Of Thunder who has a 35% winner to runner strike rate with his progeny at 10f-11f (including Economics who won the Champion Stakes in September over this C&D). His dam, Ellthea, won a Group 3 over 7f on soft and her dam, Tropical Lady, won two Group 3s at Leopardstown for Jim Bolger over 7f and 1m2f so there are encouraging signs in his pedigree regarding his aptitude for this test.

The top four in the market here all lack a run so Tiberius Thunder will have a fitness edge, another plus. Murray is presumably running Spicy Margarita to make the pace and set it up for her stablemate. Will he be good enough? That remains to be seen but with odds of 14/1 available, it’s worth taking the chance that he is.

Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Tiberius Thunder e/w @ 14/1

4.20 – 1888 Restaurant Handicap (90 = 9st 12lb)

Since 2011, only two horses drawn higher than 8 have won this race. It can be really tricky from a high draw in handicaps at Leopardstown and this is a race Aidan O’Brien has done well in recently, winning three of the last five renewals. He is triple handed this year and his runners have been drawn 2, 4 and 9. Moore prefers Serious Contender, who starts from stall 2 and unsurprisingly, he’s been made the 9/4 fav.

The one I will take a punt on is a Magnier owned horse but he isn’t trained by Aidan. Wille Browne trains Just Before, who will start from stall 3, and she is bred to be better than an 84 horse. It took her four goes to get off the mark in maidens and her breakthrough win came here over 7f in October. She was 1.5l in front of the now 88 rated Queens Fury, to whom she was conceding 3lb.

On her previous start at Cork she finished third, 4.75l behind the now 102 rated Wemightakedlongway (who runs in the Ballysax) and 2l behind Minnie Hauk, now rated 88. I don’t think Just Before’s comeback run in a rated race at Dundalk, her first try at this sort of trip, was too bad and given how weak she was in the market, she likely needed the run badly and Seamie wasn’t that hard on her at all.

She now returns to the scene of her maiden win, she should strip much fitter for her comeback run and she has a nice draw in stall 3. I usually avoid handicap debutants but she has experience in big field maidens so I am making an exception. At odds of 20/1, Just Before is the each way selection.

Leopardstown Sunday Tip: Just Before e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

2025 Lincoln Handicap Stats That Matter

The flat is back this weekend and the big race at Doncaster on Saturday is The Lincoln Handicap. I had a couple of hours to spare this evening so I have decided to use stats and trends to narrow the field and maybe find some e/w value. Check out my 2025 Lincoln Handicap Stats That Matter preview below.

Official Rating

Usually we use age to begin with in these stats based previews but this race is different. With 69 runners remaining, it makes sense to use ratings first as it will enable us to get rid of horses that have no chance of getting into the race. The past 11 winners have been rated between 90 and 102, bar Migration in 2023 who won off 107. This year, horses rated 90 are going to be right on the cusp of getting in so we’ll discount horses rated below 90 and over 102.

At the top of the weights, the 109 rated Witch Hunter and the 108 rated Cicero’s Gift both get the chop. 33 horses remain that are rated 90 or lower and most of them are outsiders. The highest profile casualty here is the hat-trick seeker Naepoint who is as short as 20/1. In total, we lose 35 horses here, leaving us with 34 potential winners.

Cut: Witch Hunter; Cicero’s Gift; Debora’s Dream; Farasi Lane; Limarty Dreams; Naepoint; Our Havana; Arthur’s Realm; Rhythm Master; Surrey Shadow; all the rest rated 86 or less are discounted.

Age

Since the year 2000 this race has mostly been won by younger horses. In the 24 years since the turn of the century 4yos (11) and 5yos (7) have won 18 of the 24 renewals and 8 of the last 9. So, we’ll be focusing on horses that fall into that age bracket.

Quite a few older horses are counted out here, including the 7yo Irish Lincolnshire winner Orandi, who is as short as 12/1. He is one of five 7yos to miss out, as do Sean (8yo) and Beringer (10yo). There are six 6yos that come a cropper here too, including the well fancied Lattam and last year’s winner Mr Professor. We are really making inroads now, the question is what trend will we use next?

Cut: Lattam; Mr Professor; Thunder Roar; Toimy Son; Tolstoy; Two Tempting; Dual Identity; Empirestateofmind; Fantastic Fox; Isla Kai; Orandi; Sean; Beringer.

Weight*

History suggests that you need a horse that isn’t carrying a welter burden, but also one that isn’t carrying a feather weight. Now, it must be said that Mr Professor (8-08) and Migration (9-09) have busted this trend in the last two renewals but usually, you don’t want to be carrying more than 9-04 or less than 8-12. Since 2000, the only exceptions were the two aforementioned horses, Babodana in 2004 and Levitate in 2013.

So, this means that the 25/1 shot Galeron falls at this hurdle. Two of three market leaders just sneak through but Native Warrior, who is due to carry 8-10, is eliminated. He is joined the likes of Arisaig, Myal, Ocean Of Dreams and Tribal Chief.

*If Witch Hunter doesn’t run the weights will be adjusted but we can only go on the assumption he will take his chance.

Cut: Myal; Ocean Of Dreams; Padishakh; Spirit Genie; Tribal Chief; Old Cock; Dashing Darcey; Alpha Crucis; Native Warrior; Arisaig; Godwinson

Recent Form

A recurring theme in the last few years has been the success of horses having their first outing of the season. All but two of the last eleven winners have lacked a recent run and this enables us to narrow the field even further. Our Spring Double bet Whip Cracker does not tick this box so I am hoping it does not hold true this year!

Others that remain who have run in the past month or so are Magnum Opus, Oliver Show, Apiarist, Flying Finn and Talis Evolvere. That leaves us with four final contenders, we’ll try to sort them out next.

Cut: Magnum Opus; Oliver Show; Apiarist; Flying Finn; Talis Evolvere; Whip Cracker

The Final Four

So, four horses remain and two of them are single figure odds. Karl Burke’s Thunder Run and Hamad El Jehani’s Midnight Gun have cleared every hurdle so far so anyone who has backed them ante-post can rest easy.

The other two that survived are bigger prices. Galeron, trained by Charlie Hills, is 25/1 and Orne, who is trained by the Gosdens, is 33s. The former horse spent last season in Australia where he went close a couple of times but failed to win. He could be potentially well handicapped on his 2023 form but if I had to back either him or Orne e/w, I would have to favour the Gosden horse.

Lost Form

He lost his form in the second half of last season but he was running over six furlongs. He stays a mile, as he showed in the Al Rayyan Mile in Doha last March and also when placed in listed heats at Newcastle and Chelmsford.

This horse split the 116 rated Inisherin and the 119 rated Vandeek at Haydock over 6f last May. He gets in here off a mark of 97 and with Luke Catton due to take off 3lb, he is potentially very well handicapped.

Catton is 1/6 for the Gosdens with a further three top 4 finishes and when riding for Al Shaqab he is 1/4 with another two top three finishes. At odds of 33/1, the stats suggest that Orne is worth chancing e/w.

1 Thunder Run 6/1

2 Midnight Gun 7/1

3 Galeron 25/1

4 Orne 33/1 (back e/w)

-DaveStevos

2025 Spring E/W Double

As we head into the warmth of spring, it’s time to have a look at one of the traditional bets that punters love to have a go at. The Spring Double, which concerns the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster and the Grand National at Aintree, has proved to be a tough nut to crack for us in recent years but Dave is going to give it another go in 2025. Small e/w singles and an e/w double recommended.

2025 Lincoln Handicap – Doncaster

The one I have my eye on for this race is the Richard Hughes trained Whip Cracker. Regular readers might remember us backing this horse on his seasonal reappearance in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket (1m1f, good) last April. He ran a blinder to finish a 3.25l behind poor old Jayarebe off level weights and that horse ended up being rated 117 before tragically suffering a heart attack at the Breeders’ Cup.

Ambiente Friendly was almost 3l behind Whip Cracker back in fourth and he is now rated 115. Now, Whip Cracker didn’t go on to reach the same heights as those horses last season but he has demonstrated more than once that he is capable of winning a nice handicap pot and hopefully, it’s this one.

The 4yo son of Cracksman was gelded after a below par, but not terrible, effort in the Britannia at Ascot. After that he raced twice on heavy ground in valuable handicaps at Newbury (1m2f) and Goodwood (1m), finishing third and fourth respectively.

Ground Will Suit

I think he ran well in those two races in spite of the heavy ground rather than because of it and the likely good ground at Doncaster should be more up his street. He had a prep run in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton, for which he was sent off the 9/4 fav. He finished a closing fourth and I believe connections would have been delighted that he ran so well and didn’t win, avoiding a 5lb penalty for this race.

This horse should be well suited by a strongly run race over the mile at Doncaster and on his effort in the Feilden Stakes, he is capable of running to 105+ at least. He gets in off a mark of 97, Finley Marsh is jocked up so hopefully the plan is to run and if he does, Whip Cracker looks well worth backing each way at odds of 20/1.

2025 Spring E/W Double Lincoln Handicap Tip: Whip Cracker e/w @ 20/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

2025 Grand National – Aintree

I have already put Beauport up for the Grand National at 40/1 and you can read why here. He has become something of a forgotten horse due to punters focusing on horses with more recent form but if he turns up in the same fettle as when routing the field on his last chase start at Ascot, surely he is going to run a massive race. He won’t mind what the weather does either, unlike the well-backed and heavily hyped Hewick who probably won’t even run if the ground turns soft.

We backed I Am Maximus ante-post for the race last season at 25/1 and he hosed up. He has failed to fire so far this year but you can be sure he’s been trained to the minute for this race and he looked like he could have gone around again he won that easily in 2024. I think he could go off favourite and win again but unfortunately, he isn’t 25/1 this year.

Chief Appeals

The one that makes most appeal at a working man’s price is Senior Chief. Henry De Bromhead knows what it takes to win this race and he mentioned the National as a possible target for this 8yo after his October win at Cheltenham (3m1f, good). That win came off 142 and he then headed to the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury for his next run off a 9lb higher mark.

He was ridden prominently when winning at Cheltenham but at Newbury he was ridden a bit more patiently. He got outpaced and looked like he might tail off at one point but he stayed on very well in the final couple of furlongs to get up for sixth so hopefully, this marathon trip will suit.

Best Left Handed

De Bromhead’s horse was sent off at just 10/1 for the Irish Grand National last season but he may not have appreciated going right handed and the bottomless ground probably wasn’t ideal either. It must be said, he has won a couple of poor races going right handed at Punchestown but his standout efforts, by some distance, have come going left handed on his last two chase starts.

He seems to be versatile regarding ground conditions (though good to soft or soft ground would be ideal) and he had a spin over hurdles at Naas last month, which should have blown away any cobwebs.

Even though the Grand National trip is 4 miles plus, the start will be key. Senior Chief is best when racing close to the front so it will be vital that he gets a fair shake when the flag drops. If he does, hopefully he will run a massive race at odds of 33/1.

2025 Spring E/W Double Grand National Tip: Senior Chief e/w @ 33/1 (5 places 1/5 odds)

-DaveStevos

2025 Curragh Lincoln Meeting Preview

Cheltenham went by without us backing a winner. However, we managed to land at least one place on all four days so it could have been much worse. The flat is back in Ireland tomorrow and the feature is the Irish Lincoln. We’ve landed a few nice places in this race in the past, hopefully we can do the same again on Sunday.

2yo Race

Just a quick word on the 2yo race. I won’t be having a bet but I think Adrian Murray will win it with one of his. His Space Blues colt Power Blue has already been backed into favouritism and David Egan rides, so jockey bookings suggest he’s the main hope. However, Lee and Lordan ride plenty of winners for Murray too so if I was having a bet, I’d probably go with Leblon Beach, the longest priced of his three runners. There’s too many unknowns to have a proper bet though, so we’ll stick to the handicaps for today.

2.10 – Nua Healthcare Handicap (80 = 10st)

The ground is drying slowly at the Curragh. It has been dry but cold so there will definitely be cut in the ground and it will probably be tacky. It certainly won’t suit horses that want it rattling quick. Never Shout Never has been running great at Dundalk this year so he’ll be fit and he has form on soft ground. It is no surprise that he is the fav here, especially with his yard in such good form.

One that could go well at a bigger price is Rathbranchurch. Mick Mulvany’s horses often run well on the opening day and this son of Buratino has plenty of course form in the book. He was beaten 0.75l over 5f here last October off 68 and he was beaten 0.5l over 6.5f here off 71 in June.

Rathbranchurch runs off 70 today and Wesley Joyce takes off 5lb. He is versatile regarding ground and he has run well on his seasonal reappearances in the last two years. At odds of 14/1, he is the e/w selection.

2025 Curragh Lincoln Meeting Tip: Rathbranchurch e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)

2.40 – Nua Healthcare Handicap (100 = 10st)

The legend Big Gossey carries top weight here and he can never be discounted at this venue. However, I think Staysound Susie is worth a second look for the Slatterys. First of all, this filly has a decent record when fresh. She was fourth on her debut at Cork in 2023 and she was beaten 2l in a maiden at Dundalk on her return to action in 2024.

The daughter of US Navy Flag has a good record on softer than good too. She won her maiden at Tipperary over 5f on soft ground and overall, her form figures on soft/heavy read 3351. Her last win came in a small field at Cork last October off 76 and while she was well beaten off 7lb higher on her next start, that run may have come too soon.

She was beaten just 1.25l on her only previous C&D run so we know she handles the track and while this is a harder race, she could have more improvement in her being just 4yo. At odds of 16/1, a small e/w interest on Staysound Susie is advised.

2025 Curragh Lincoln Meeting Tip: Staysound Susie e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)

3.45 – Irish Lincolnshire Handicap (Premier)

The one that looks massively overpriced here is the UK raider Flying Finn. Trained by former Curragh based handler Adrian Keatley, this 4yo daughter of Phoenix Of Spain had a fine campaign last year. She started off the season with a second in a heavy ground Catterick maiden and after that, she was given a mark of 66.

Two weeks later she made a mockery of that mark with a 6.5l win at Ripon (8f, soft). A six pound rise wasn’t enough to halt her progress at Doncaster (1m, soft) eight days later and she won again, this time by almost 4l. The assessor took a particularly dim view after that run and Flying Finn was hit with a 14lb rise to 86.

Listed Form

She struggled off her revised mark at Ascot but the ground was good. It was much more like it back on softer ground at Longchamp in May and she picked up some black type in third in that 1m1f Listed race. After a mid-season break she returned to action at Haydock (1m, soft) and won again off 93, beating Earls and Raadobarg by over 5l. Her two subsequent starts weren’t as good but she was possibly feeling the effects of a long season.

The fact she started last season in such good form bodes well for her chances here and while a high draw is usually a plus over this C&D, plenty of horses have won from single figure draws in the not too distant past. I think she looks well worth a try in a race of this nature so at odds of 40/1, Flying Finn is the e/w selection.

2025 Curragh Lincoln Meeting Tip: Flying Finn e/w @ 40/1 (6 places) NAP

-DaveStevos