Mac Can Bounce Back In The Thyestes

The Galmoy Hurdle and, more importantly, the Thyestes Handicap Chase are the feature races at Gowran Park on Thursday. It is a race that I have a mixed record in over the years. The first ever tip I put up for it was My Murphy, who won in 2016 at 20/1, we landed a place with Wounded Warrior who finished second in 2018 and in 2023 Espanito Bello ran into fifth.

Other years have not proved as fruitful but I reckon Macs Charm can give each way players a decent run for their money in the 2025 renewal. Trained by Colm Murphy, this 10yo son of Le Fou looks like he has been trained for this race. He has had two runs so far this season, one over hurdles and one chase over an inadequate trip and the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 135.

Well Handicapped

A year ago he ran into fifth in this race off a mark of 141. He was only beaten 8l for the win and a short head for fourth, so he is certainly handicapped to finish closer off a 6lb lower rating. The ground was heavy that day but he acts on soft and his last win came on that sort of ground off this mark at Fairyhouse back in April 2023.

Not only is he on a competitive looking mark, he also loves Gowran Park. He has run there four times in the past, once over hurdles and in three chases, and he has form figures of 1225 at the track. He’s guaranteed to get a run, he should get his ground so hopefully, he’ll be declared in the morning. At odds of 50/1, Macs Charm is worth backing each way.

2025 Thyestes Chase Tip: Macs Charm e/w @ 50/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

-DaveStevos

2025 Triumph Hurdle Cheltenham Ante-Post Tip

After his impressive win at Ascot, Nicky Henderson’s French recruit Lulamba has been cut to 6/4 for the Triumph and is now the clear market leader. He showed a neat turn of foot to put the race to bed after the final hurdle and he’s undoubtedly a smart horse but I thought there was an awful lot to like about the effort of the runner up Mondo Man on his hurdling debut. If he can settle better at Cheltenham, I think he can narrow the 3.5l margin of defeat substantially, and perhaps even turn it around.

This is a horse that regular readers of my previews will be familiar with. We backed him in the G1 French Derby, where he finished fifth and also in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he finished fourth. His last run on the flat was poor but he ended up with a rating of 111 in that sphere and he was picked up by current connections for a cool 520k in October at the Arqana Arc Sale.

Pulled Like A Dog

To say he did a lot wrong at Ascot would be a massive understatement. He pulled like an absolute dog for at least three quarters of the race, yet he still kept on well for second and while he had no answers when Lulamba turned the screw inside the final 150 yards, that was understandable given how he had behaved throughout the race.

He often raced keenly on the flat too, particularly when he was running on home turf in France where they usually go a crawl early before the race turns into a sprint at the finish. I think he will be seen to much better effect when he encounters a proper end to end gallop, which he will hopefully get in the Triumph.

Ground Versatile

Mondo Man jumped pretty well at Ascot so he should be fine in that department. He seems to act on all sorts of ground, which is always a big plus for any ante-post bet, and unless something emerges from the Dublin Racing Festival in a couple of weeks, there doesn’t look to be any superstars lurking in the shadows in Ireland.

Even though he’ll be worse off at the weights with Lulamba in March, I still think he can run to a much higher level if they go a proper gallop and he settles so at odds of 25/1, Mondo Man is worth backing each way.

2025 Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle Ante-Post Tip: Mondo Man e/w @ 25/1

-DaveStevos

2025 Windsor & Market Rasen Friday Preview

The Moscow Flyer meeting at Punchestown didn’t go as I hoped. Enjoy d’Allen did what he usually does and that’s the last time I’ll be tipping him (I swear!). Artic Lane was outclassed and unfortunately, Chosen Diamond needed the run badly. We have three days of quality action to get stuck into this weekend, I’ll be previewing the Berkshire Million meeting on my own blog and Saturday’s action will be covered on the TXMarkets blog. My 2025 Windsor & Market Rasen Friday tips are below.

2.35 Market Rasen – Veterans’ Handicap Chase Final (Class 2)

This race has fallen foul of the weather a couple of times already. I put Smarty Wild up when it was scheduled to be run at Sandown earlier this month and my main angle for fancying him was his liking for right-handed tracks. Pulled up on his return from a year off at Haydock in December, his form figures going left handed read 455P, going the other way they read 3313332F232.

He gets in here off a mark of 127. He is actually rated 125 but even though he is 2lb wrong at the weights, he was placed on his last three starts of 2022/2023 off 133 so I am not too worried about him being out of the handicap. I am hoping he needed his comeback run and that he'll improve plenty for it.

Philip Hobbs and Johnson White have had five winners from their last nine runners, hopefully Smarty Wild gives them another winner on Friday at odds of 10/1.

2025 Windsor & Market Rasen Friday Tip: Smarty Wild e/w @ 10/1

3.35 Windsor – Sovereign Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

There’s a big pot up for grabs here. The total purse is £110k with £57k going to the winner. We have backed Cracking Rhapsody a couple of times, including at a lovely price when he won the Morebattle at Kelso last season. We also backed him at Cheltenham on his penultimate outing, where he ran poorly, but he bounced straight back from that effort on his next start at Kelso, where he hosed up in a mickey mouse class 3 handicap off 127.

That win came on soft, it was also soft when he was beaten a length in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr last year and overall, his form figures in soft ground handicaps read 2131. His Morebattle win came on good to soft so he won't mind once there is a bit of juice in the ground. 

The ground was good when he flopped at Cheltenham so I am willing to forgive him that run and I think he might still have a bit more wriggle room off his revised mark of 133. 20/1 about Cracking Rhapsody looks a shade too big to my eyes and at those odds, he has to be worth chancing each way.

2025 Windsor & Market Rasen Friday Tip: Cracking Rhapsody e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

2025 Punchestown Moscow Flyer Meeting Preview

Our solid start to 2025 continued on Saturday. Jukebox Joker just about got the place at 12/1 and Up For Parol won easily enough at the same odds. Captains Nephew went too hard in the middle part of his race and didn’t get home and Riot’s run was a non-event. On Sunday we have the 2025 Punchestown Moscow Flyer meeting, hopefully we can land another winner. Preview and tips are below.

12.25 – Beginners’ Chase (5yo+)

Just like at Fairyhouse on Saturday, the recently thawed ground is going to be taxing at Punchestown. Gavin Cromwell is flying at the moment and he has the fav here with Shantou Princess. The ground is going to be very different than when she won here over hurdles in December but she won her P2P on heavy and she’s related to winning chasers so it would be no surprise were she to win.

The much more experienced Brucejack looks a danger. He has already had ten starts over fences, finishing second twice, and he was a very creditable fifth in the Porterstown at Fairyhouse against seasoned handicappers on his last start. This drop in trip will suit him and if I was backing one at the head of the betting, I’d take a chance on him.

It is hard to make a case for anything at a price here as the majority of the outsiders look like they will be aimed at handicaps in the future. No bet.

2025 Punchestown Moscow Flyer Meeting Tip: No Bet

12.55 – Skybet Novice Chase (Grade 3)

If the ground was nicer I’d be taking a chance on Ifiwerearichman here. He did win his maiden hurdle on soft but his two best efforts have come on good over hurdles and on yielding here over fences when he slammed Jasko Des Dames by 6.5l.

Lecky Watson won nicely on his chasing debut at Naas last month and he has plenty of form in the mud, unlike Down Memory Lane, who floundered on testing ground at Sandown last month. However, I'm not sure this slight drop in trip is ideal for the Mullins’ horse and he ran poorly over hurdles here last season so it might be worth having a small go at the Elliott reverse forecast.

Farren Glory got off the mark at the second attempt over fences on good ground at Naas last November. He ran another sound race when beaten 6l into second by Touch Me Not in a Grade 2 here last time out, shaping as though a step up in trip might suit. Two of his four career wins have come on heavy ground.

His stablemate Search For Glory ran really well at this trip behind Impaire Et Passe in a Grade 1 at Limerick last month. Beaten a head here over 3m by Stellar Story in a Grade 2 on his penultimate start, we know he handles the track and ground and he’ll likely be ridden positively. Given the negatives regarding the other three, a reverse forecast on Farren Glory and Search For Glory is advised.

2025 Punchestown Moscow Flyer Meeting Tip: Farren Glory/Search For Glory reverse forecast

1.25 – Adare Manor Handicap Chase (0-100)

An unappealing heat. Papa Barns deserves to get his head in front but I am not certain he’ll enjoy the ground. Mahlers Cove could go well but he ran poorly over C&D last season. An easy race to swerve. No bet.

2025 Punchestown Moscow Flyer Meeting Tip: No bet

1.55 – Amateur National Handicap Chase (130 = 12st 4lbs)

Enjoy d’Allen has been an exceedingly frustrating horse for us. We have backed him on more than one occasion and he always just seems to miss out on a place. However, he hasn’t had that many chances on ground with heavy in the description throughout his career so I am going to charge headlong over the cliff one last time.

Ciaran Murphy’s charge has produced some of his better recent efforts at this venue on the banks course. He was a 13l fourth in the Risk Of Thunder here in November, finishing just over a length behind the 142 rated Stealthy Tom and a short head in front of the 157 rated Coko Beach.

His career form figures on ground with heavy in the description read 21216 and while it would be foolish to take the form of his Risk Of Thunder run literally, it’s hard not to be tempted by him off a mark of 122, especially with his rider taking off 7lb. At odds of 12/1, Enjoy d’Allen is the each way selection.

2025 Punchestown Moscow Flyer Meeting Tip: Enjoy d’Allen e/w @ 12/1 (4 places)

2.25 – Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)

There’s been quite a few half-decent winners of this Grade 2 over the years. Vautour, Douvan, Impaire Et Passe and my personal favourite, Dreal Deal. Willie Mullins has won the last three and he holds a strong hand again with the two market leaders, Salvator Mundi and Kel Histoire. The former horse won by half the track at Tipperary last time on good ground but he was just behind Sir Gino on bad ground on his debut in France and he does look like the one they have to beat.

Kel Histoire didn’t put in the best round of jumping when winning at Cork last month but he has to be respected given who trains him. Sky Lord won’t mind the heavy ground but the form of Henry De Bromhead has to be a worry for his supporters. Relieved Of Duties would be tempting on better ground but these conditions are an unknown for him.

Artic Lane beat Relieved Of Duties in a 2m maiden hurdle at Limerick in November but was beaten when unseating in a 2m4f handicap at Leopardstown over the Xmas period. He’s probably a bit overpriced given he’ll handle the ground and the drop back in trip is probably in his favour too.

Declan Queally’s horses are flying, he landed a cracking place for us with Rocky’s Diamond at huge odds at Leopardstown and even with just two places on offer, Artic Lane's price is big enough to warrant a small e/w bet. Hopefully the first-time blinkers sharpen him up and he makes a bold bid from the front.

2025 Punchestown Moscow Flyer Meeting Tip: 0.5pt Artic Lane e/w @ 80/1

3.25 – Handicap Hurdle (120 = 11st 12lbs)

A nice and easy get out of jail stakes. The one I’ll take a chance on is Chosen Diamond. Trained by the King of Fairyhouse, Eddie Cawley, this horse was last sighted running a nice race at that venue on heavy ground last March (20f). That was a stronger race than this one and he was only 3l behind The Other Mozzie, who is now rated 138 over fences.

This horse lacks a recent run but he won on his seasonal reappearance last year in a handicap chase at Naas so he is capable of going well when fresh. He has run poorly on both previous visits to Punchestown, which is a negative, but those efforts came over 3 miles and this trip is a lot more suitable.

Sean O’Keefe was placed on him at Navan last March (2m4f, hvy) and he held every chance of winning on him when falling at the last at Navan in January 2024. Again, this isn’t one for maximum stakes as he may need the run but at odds of 20/1, a small e/w interest on Chosen Diamond is advised.

2025 Punchestown Moscow Flyer Meeting Tip: Chosen Diamond e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos 

Titan Could Ascend In Lanzarote

This weekend Kempton hosts the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle. Dan Skelton has won the last two renewals and he has five entered this year so he is clearly determined to complete the hat-trick. In those last two renewals, we have backed Up For Parol. He got the place for us at 25s in 2023 but last year he ran a stinker. I was obviously tempted to go in on him again (so he’ll probably hack up) but this year, I am going to take a chance on the Welsh raider, Titan Discovery.

Trained by Robbie Llewellyn, this 7yo son of Pether’s Moon is lurking on a winnable mark, in my opinion. A winner by a head on his handicap debut off 104 in December 2023 at Ascot (15.5f, gd/sft), he added to that tally off 11lb higher In February at Sandown (20f, sft) two runs later.

On his next start, Titan Discovery stepped up in grade and contested a class 2 handicap hurdle over this C&D. Still travelling sweetly as they turned for home, he got stuck in a bit of a pocket on the inside and when the eventual winner Boombawn made his race winning move, Liam Harrison had to switch out wide to follow him and the Skelton horse just got first run.

Titan did jump the last two hurdles perhaps a tiny bit steeply, which cost him momentum, but once Harrison gave him the office after the last he picked up strongly, and the winner was clinging on for dear life at the line.

Solid Form

Boombawn, then racing off 130, has since won a Grade 2 over fences and is rated 141 in that sphere. Irish Hill was a couple of lengths off them in third running off 124 and he has won off that mark since and is now rated 131. Kateira was back in fourth off 136 and she won a grade 3 handicap at Aintree afterwards (and a Listed here) and is now rated 145.

Robbie Llewellyn’ charge will be racing off 123 here, just 2lb higher than he was in that C&D contest. He shaped as though needing the run when a respectable seventh on his seasonal return in the 19.5f Silver Trophy at Chepstow three months ago and he’ll be better suited by the right handed track at Kempton. His form figures over hurdles going left handed read 67, going the other way they read 421212.

Soft or good to soft ground is perfectly fine for him, my only concern is that he’s been absent for three months since that Chepstow return. Looking back at the stats, Robbie Llewellyn didn’t have a winner or a second from twenty four runners between September and November so perhaps some of his horses weren’t fully healthy and he didn’t want to run this lad until his string had turned the corner.

He went 2/11 in December and this month he’s had a second from his three runners so far, so it looks like he has his string in fine fettle now. I’m convinced this horse has a big pot in him on a right-handed track and I’m hoping this has been the long-term target since his excellent run over C&D last year. So, at odds of 25/1, Titan Discovery is the e/w selection.

2025 Lanzarote Hurdle Kempton Ante-Post: Titan Discovery e/w @ 25/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

-DaveStevos

2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting Preview

Unfortunately Saturday’s racing fell foul of the freezing weather. Amazingly, the BHA didn’t have an alternative all-weather meeting scheduled that could be broadcast free to air instead so ITV had no racing to show. The forecast wasn’t great for Naas on Saturday night into Sunday but thankfully, the card goes ahead. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting preview and tips below.

1.25 – Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 2)

Nothing really leapt out in the first two races. I was half-tempted by Miss Pronunciation in the opener because of her record on testing ground but all her best form is on right-handed tracks and she’ll likely be out for a spin to get a mark to qualify her for handicap chases. There’s only two places on offer in the second race, a handicap chase, so we’ll start off with this Grade 2 Novices’ Chase.

Only five run in this contest and Inthepocket is even money to follow up his easy win at Wexford in November (2m, sft). A Grade 1 winner over timber at Aintree in 2023, he won as he liked on his first chase start and it would be no surprise were he to follow up.

Ile Atlantique was also impressive on his chasing debut at Navan last month, making all to beat Waterford Whispers by 9l over 20.5f on soft ground. He’ll be suited by a strongly run race at this trip and he should get that, but he wasn’t as talented over timber as his main market rival.

Firefox is the only other one in here with a realistic chance on all known form. His fans would have been very disappointed by his defeat in the Drinmore but in hindsight, it looks like ok form after seeing what the winner Croke Park and Heart Wood (fourth in the Savills) have done since. He probably represents a bit of value against the top two in the market at 3/1 but he’s too short for the blog. No bet.

2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting Tip: No Bet

1.55 – Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

Last year’s Champion Bumper winner, Jasmin De Vaux, is a warm order in this 2m4f Grade 1 novice. His jumping wasn’t great on his hurdling debut at Navan but the second and third have won since and the fifth, beaten 24l, ran a blinder in a maiden at Fairyhouse for Eddie Cawley on New Year’s Day.

The Yellow Clay is 3/3 over hurdles, including wins at Grade 3 and Grade 2 level. He finished 12l behind the fav at Cheltenham but reversed the form at Punchestown and I’m not sure he should be 11/4 if Jasmin De Vaux is priced up at 13/8. In fact, given his experience advantage over hurdles, I’d probably make the Elliott horse favourite.

The plunge horse is Supersundae, who opened up at 25s with one firm last night. He’s been backed all the way into just 7/1 but whether this tacky ground will be up his alley, I’m not too sure.

Bigger Odds

Is there anything capable of spoiling the party at bigger odds? Spasiba won his maiden here back in November but that was on much better ground than he’ll encounter here. Plontier also has ground concerns so that leaves us with Wingmen.

A two-time bumper winner last year on soft and yielding (including a race here), he got off the mark at the first attempt over hurdles at Navan in November (20f, gd/yld). However, he failed to follow up dropped back in trip at Cheltenham to 2m1f on good to soft ground and the horse that beat him there has since come up short in Grade 1 company.

That being said, the step back up to 2m4f is in this son of Kayf Tara’s favour and the ground could be a plus for him too. He is unraced on  ground with heavy in the description under rules but it was soft to heavy for his sole start in points and he hacked up at Ballycrystal that day by 12 lengths.

At odds of 40/1, Wingmen is a speculative each way selection. He’ll probably need one or two to misfire to sneak a place though, so keep stakes small.

2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting Tip: Wingmen e/w @ 40/1

3.05 – Adare Handicap Hurdle (110 = 11st 12lbs)

Giant Haystacks looks too short here given that he has been well beaten both starts on soft ground and his win last time came on yielding. This is admittedly a weaker race but given that he has to prove he handles these testing conditions, he could be worth taking on.

At massive odds, maybe Cornmarket can challenge for a place if he comes on for his seasonal reappearance at here last month. The 2m trip and good to yielding ground were not in his favour that day and he was beaten a long way, but there is cause for optimism now that he steps up to 2m3f and returns to heavy ground.

His best efforts last season came on heavy ground. He stayed on for a remote fourth of 10 off 86 at Clonmel in October 2023 and then on his next start over hurdles upped to 2m4f on heavy, he finished an 8.75l fourth of 10 behind Kiln Time at Wexford off 84. He was again fourth at Cork in March, beaten 9l on soft to heavy and not quite getting home over the 2m4f trip.

This 2m3f trip could be ideal for him and while he is racing from 4lb out of the handicap, his rider’s 4lb claim negates that. If he can repeat those Cork or Wexford efforts in this weak race he might be able to sneak into the frame and with five places on offer, Cornmarket is worth chancing each way for small stakes at odds of 33/1.

2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting Tip: Cornmarket e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

2025 Leopardstown Saturday Preview

We missed the target with our Friday selections. Fortuna Ligna could only manage sixth and unfortunately, Lucid Dreams was pulled up sharply after suffering a bad injury, thoughts go to his connections. I was delighted to see Soul Icon win, hopefully some of you backed him. It can sometimes be worth reading the preview, even if it’s a no bet race. There’s another top quality day of racing ahead of us tomorrow (or today depending on when you read this), check out my 2025 Leopardstown Saturday preview below.

12.50 Leopardstown – South Dubin Handicap (80-116)

We have had a couple of near misses in this race in years gone by with Youngnedofthehill finishing second at massive odds and Music Of Tara really should have won for us in 2022. This year, I am going to take a chance on Jolie Jewel for Galway trainer Brian McMahon with Jake Coen taking off 3lb.

This 5yo daughter of Spider Flight has been learning her trade in handicaps since winning a 19f Cork maiden hurdle in May. Handed a mark of 111 for that shock win, she ran ok in her first two handicaps, finishing fifth at Galway over 16.5f and Ballinrobe over 22f, both on nice ground.

There was a blip when she struggled at Gowran in October but she ran a very nice race on her latest start in this sphere at Navan. She ran on really well for third behind the runaway winner Slane Hill and she had Big Chou (hacked up in a novice next start), In For The Night (second at Fairyhouse next time), One Night Standard (second at Down Royal on Thursday) and Slim Marvel (second at Fairyhouse next start) well behind her.

That form looks alright to me, she has picked up experience in big, competitive fields and she will be suited by a strongly run race, which this will hopefully be. At odds of 40/1, Jolie Jewel is the each way selection.

2025 Leopardstown Saturday Tip: Jolie Jewel e/w @ 40/1 (6 places) NB

2.00 Leopardstown – Savills Hurdle (Grade 1)

Hewick runs here instead of the King George, a baffling decision in my opinion. Why you wouldn’t try to defend your title, especially when the conditions were perfect, is beyond me. If he goes and wins this the decision will probably be seen as being vindicated but at the end of the day, the King George is the race I’d rather win.

Home By The Lee won this in 2022 and heads the betting. He’s a horse I like but he is no banker to back that last win at Navan up. Bob Olinger often flatters to deceive and he didn’t get home when running in this race in 2022. Asterion Forlonge is Asterion Forlonge and Noble Yeats will surely need this run.

Can Rocky Land A Blow?

Sandor Clegane is a very frustrating horse who hasn’t won as many races as his ability deserves. Beacon Edge is nearly an 11yo and that leaves us with Rocky’s Diamond. Trained by Declan Queally, this horse is rated 130 so theoretically, he has no chance. However, he has only run four times, winning twice, and the 4yo showed a good attitude to score on his handicap debut at Gowran (3m, good) in October.

Shane Fitzgerald rides and he was on board for his maiden hurdle win at Limerick in April and he also rode Mozzies Sister to finish second for the yard in a Grade 2 at Limerick on Thursday. This is a very speculative bet, so don’t have the house on, but given the opposition, Rocky’s Diamond is worth chancing each way for small stakes at odds of 33/1.

2025 Leopardstown Saturday Tip: Rocky’s Diamond e/w @ 33/1

2.35 Leopardstown – Savills Chase (Grade 1)

The big one. Galopin Des Champs is the defending champion and he’s favourite to win it again. However, Willie Mullins has had something like two winners from 47 runners so far this weekend so that has to rate as a massive concern for those considering backing this fella at short odds. The same sentiment applies to the second fav, the John Durkan winner Fact To File.

That could leave the door open for Inothewayurthinkin but he ran an extremely poor race behind the aforementioned horses at Punchestown. The one I am taking a chance on is the Mouse Morris trained Gentlemansgame.

I obviously rate this horse as I put him up for the Gold Cup last year and we also backed him at Aintree. He failed to deliver but he then ran a cracker in the Punchestown Gold Cup where he finished just over 3l behind Galopin Des Champs.

My main angle with this horse is the fact he beat I Am Maximus, another friend of the blog, by 8l on his seasonal reappearance at this meeting back in 2022. His crowning moment came last year when he won the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, beating Bravemansgame by almost 2l. Given the form of the Mullins’ yard, I think he is worth chancing each way at odds of 33/1.

2025 Leopardstown Saturday Tip: Gentlemansgame e/w @ 33/1

3.05 Leopardstown – Pertemps Qualifier Handicap Hurdle (145 = 11st 12)

I’m starting to hate these races but the thoughts of a big priced winner keep me coming back for more. The top four finishers qualify for the final at Cheltenham in March (changed from the top six), so those horses that are usually ridden to finish sixth, have to try just a little bit harder.

Usually, when analysing these races I look at the bigger picture. Who wants to qualify but needs to protect their mark? Who needs a win and a rise in the weights to get a run? That approach hasn’t been working so this time, I’m going to just look at the race as I would a normal handicap.

Luckily, I don’t have to look too far for a bet in this race. We backed Toor Khov at big odds when he finished in midfield at Cork in December. I thought he was well treated and he proved me right by running a huge race on his next start upped to 3m1f at Navan a week later, again at big odds.

The bookies have dismissed his chances but with Ethan O’Sullivan’s claim he is effectively 4lb lower than he was at Navan and I think this slightly sounder surface is going to suit him better. When he won his maiden at Tipperary, beating the now 134 rated Grade 3 winner Pray Tell, it was good to yielding. Off an effective mark of 110, Toor Khov is the e/w selection.

2025 Leopardstown Saturday Tip: Toor Khov e/w @ 22/1 (6 places) NAP

-DaveStevos

2024 Kempton, Leopardstown & Chepstow Friday Preview

It was a mixed bag for us on Boxing Day. Our four e/w lucky 15 tips failed to fire, though I thought Depalma shaped ok despite being given far too much to do. We did better in the UK with Good And Clever placing at 33s and our 16/1 NAP Kinondo Kwetu finishing like a train for second. The Welsh National is one of a few cracking races on ITV on Friday, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday preview below.

1.20 Kempton – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

A trappy enough race and perhaps last year’s fourth Fortuna Ligna can go well. Trained by Anthony Honeyball, this consistent mare has to run from 6lb out of the weights here today. However, she will be ridden by a 10lb claimer who is 2/15 with nine top four finishes when riding for this yard.

With Chad Bement’s claim she’ll be effectively running off 105 and she was running off 110 when beaten 5l in this race last season. Her last win came off 105 at Perth back in April and she shaped pleasingly enough when staying on for third at Ascot on her latest start at the end of last month.

Good ground is fine for her and given how well she ran last year, I am hoping she has been targeted at this contest again. At odds of 20/1, Fortuna Ligna is the each way selection.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: Fortuna Ligna e/w @ 20/1

1.40 Chepstow – Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)

The French raider Nietzsche Has is a warm order for this Grade 2 hurdle for the 3yos. It is never easy to weight up French form vs UK form but he has won a Grade 3, he’s been placed in a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 and he does look a nice prospect.

Opec will head the home challenge for James Owen and The Gredley Family. The daughter of Sea The Moon is unbeaten when completing over hurdles (3/3), her sole defeat coming when she fell with the race at her mercy on her hurdling debut at Market Rasen in June. Today will tell us a lot more about her credentials.

It’s hard to believe Hot Fuss is already running over timber after finishing a close fifth in the Windsor Castle at Ascot last year. He’s a talented horse though and it would be no surprise were he to go well. To be honest, this looks like a race that will probably be dominated by the horses at the head of the market so we’ll swerve it. No bet.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: No bet

1.55 Kempton – Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

Constitution Hill put Lossiemouth in her place here on Thursday, can the unbeaten Sir Gino give Nicky Henderson more to shout about as he takes on the Mullins’ winning machine, Ballyburn. The Henderson horse is making his chasing debut, whereas Ballyburn has already had a sighter over the bigger obstacles, winning in facile fashion at Punchestown.

Clearly, both horses are extremely talented hurdlers, it’ll just depend who takes better to this game. Given that Sir Gino has yet to jump a fence in public, you’d probably just favour the Irish raider but as the betting indicates, it is essentially a coin toss. Another race to just watch and enjoy. No bet.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: No bet

2.30 Kempton – Desert Orchid Handicap Chase (Grade 2)

Frustratingly, Calico has been taken out of this race so only seven run. If there were three places on offer I’d be backing Soul Icon e/w at 18s with Harry Cobden on board but unfortunately, most firms are paying just two. Unfortunately, this is a no bet race.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: No Bet

2.50 Chepstow – Welsh Grand National (Premier)

Finally, a decent betting heat, though I must admit I haven’t backed a Welsh National winner since Notre Pere won it for Jim Dreaper all the way back in 2008. A shocking record, but hopefully this is the year that changes.

So who is going to have to carry the weight of the Stevos’ shillings this year?  Apologies in advance to connections, but I think this stamina test will be right up Stuzzikini’s street. I put this horse up for the Racing Post when he won a 3m2f heat at Sligo back in October. My main angle was that all he does is stay, and he proved me right on that occasion, hacking up by 14 lengths.

Since then, he has run three times, twice in valuable staying handicaps. He ran on well for fifth behind Real Steel in the Munster National in October and then last time out, he finished off strongly again to land the Grade 3 Troytown Chase at Navan in mid-November. He won that off 131 and he is 9lb higher here but he is unexposed at marathon trips over fences and I think he can still be competitive off his UK mark of 140.

Soft ground is absolutely fine for this 6yo son of Champs Elysees and 3m6f around Chepstow could really suit him. He’ll have the assistance of the talented Jordan Gainford in the plate and he’s been given plenty of time to get over his Navan exertions. He’s usually held up, so a degree of luck will be required, but if he gets a clear passage, hopefully Stuzzikini will stay on strongly in the closing stages for a place at the very least.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: Stuzzikini e/w @ 14/1 (5 places) NAP

3.00 Leopardstown – Paddy Power Handicap Chase (listed)

A nice and easy finish to the day for us with a 28 runner handicap at Leopardstown. Three Card Brag heads the market at 17/2 but I wouldn’t be rushing to back him given his lack of experience in big field handicaps. The first-time blinkers are an unknown too. The 12/1 second fav Pinkerton, on the other hand, won the 22 runner Galway Plate earlier this year so I’d rather be on him than on the Elliott horse. 

Is there anything at a huge price worth backing? Well given that I fancy Stuzzikini to go well in the Welsh National, I can’t ignore the claims of the horse that chased him home in the Troytown, the John Ryan trained Lucid Dreams.

This horse has form figures of 23 in Grade 3 handicap chases at 3 miles. He was obviously second in the Troytown off 142, and he was third in the Kerry National at Listowel off the same mark. He races off 3lb higher here, so he may be on a tough mark as far as winning is concerned, but if he reproduces his Troytown effort, it should be good enough to get the place money.

The son of Arcadio is a prominent racer, so he should be able to stay out of trouble and that is a plus in a field of this size. He acts on left handed tracks, Daniel King had a sighter on him at Navan over an inadequate trip last month and yielding ground is fine for him. Given the nature of the race, he isn’t one for max stakes but at 40/1, Lucid Dreams is the e/w selection.

2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: Lucid Dreams e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Cork Hilly Way Chase Meeting Preview

It was a frustrating day for us on Saturday. My two biggest fancies were at Aintree and that meeting fell by the wayside. Touch Me Not ran well to finish second but was a loser for us. Non-runners meant that Zambezi Mix’s third was no use to us either and Solness found the going too tough. Conkwell Legend at least managed to get the place, but only for a late mistake, it could have been even better. Sunday sees the flagship Hilly Way Chase meeting take place at Cork, preview and tips are below.

13.40 – Mares’ Novice Chase (Grade 2)

The top three in the betting set a decent standard here but I’m not sure the soft ground will suit Nara and Zenta jumped poorly last time. With that in mind, I think A Law Of Her Own could be worth taking a chance on here.

Trained by Peter Fahey, this daughter of Lawman has had three starts over fences. She finished a close third in a beginners’ at Galway on her chase debut and she then chased San Salvador home in a Grade 3 novice at Roscommon on her next start.

On her third start she ran with credit in a Listed Mares’ chase at Clonmel over 21f on good ground and while that trip probably stretched her, she still ran well enough to finish third behind Pink In The Park. She split the 132 rated Must Be Obeyed and the 151 rated Allegorie De Vassy in that race so her rating of 123 may slightly underestimate her ability.

Is this a better race than the Grade 3 she contested at Roscommon on her last start at 16f? I don’t think so and if she can repeat that level of form, she is well capable of making an impact here. At odds of 16/1, A Law Of Her Own is the each way selection.

Stevos’ Selection: A Law Of Her Own e/w @ 16/1

2.15 – Hilly Way Chase (Grade 2)

The returning Energumene is short odds to make a winning return in a race he landed in 2021 and 2022. Off for the guts of 600 days, he will surely be a touch rusty on his return and while he is the class horse in this race, it might be worth taking him on. On the figures, Blue Lord, Dinoblue and the fragile Ferny Hollow look the chief dangers but I am going to take a chance on another Mullins’ inmate, Appreciate It.

This 10yo hasn’t won since he landed a Naas novice chase back in January 2023. However, he has run plenty of excellent races in defeat, including a 0.5l second behind Fastorslow in the John Durkan on his seasonal reappearance last November (Galopin Des Champs and Blue Lord behind). He won on his seasonal return in 2022 and overall, his form figures when returning from his summer holidays read 1612 (the sixth coming in the 2022 Champion Hurdle).

The first of those wins came in a maiden hurdle at this venue, when he beat the very useful Master McShee. He has won seven of his ten career starts at 16f-16.5f and finished out of the first three just once (in that Champion Hurdle in 2022). Jockey bookings suggest he is down the Mullins’ pecking order but I think there are more than enough positives to warrant an e/w interest at odds of 16/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Appreciate It e/w @ 16/1

2.50 – Bar One Handicap Hurdle (80-116)

The one I’ll take a chance on in this competitive looking 20f handicap hurdle is Toor Khov. Trained in Stradbally, Waterford by Margaret Flynn, this son of Sholokhov is one of the less exposed runners in this race. He ran very well in his first three maiden hurdles at 16f-20f on varying ground and he got off the mark at the fourth attempt, landing a 24f maiden hurdle at Tipperary back in May.

He beat Pray Tell by 1.25l in that heat, and he was conceding 2lb to that rival. That horse is now rated 127 and is just 8/1 for the Grade 3 Novice Stayers’ hurdle earlier on this card. Toor Khov gets in here off 116 and with Liam Quinlan’s claim, he is effectively running off just 113.

This lad admittedly ran poorly on his return to action on his handicap debut at Gowran two months ago. However, he had excuses (lost a shoe and cut his leg) and in any case, he probably needed the run after a six month break. He placed in a 2m3f (yielding to soft) bumper here on his second start under rules so he handles the track and if he strips fitter for that comeback run, hopefully he can outrun his odds of 25/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Toor Khov e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

3.25 – Novice Handicap Hurdle (80-102)

A nice and easy twenty five runner get out of jail stakes. As you would imagine, this is wide open and the last five winners have been priced up at 10/1, 33/1, 25/1, 33/1 and 11/1. Knowing my luck, the fav will probably piss home this year but in the hope of another turn up, I am going to take a chance on the Galway raider, Island McCoo.

Now trained by Darren Collins, this horse showed ability in three of his four maiden hurdle starts at Kilbeggan and Roscommon at 16f to 20f for his former yard. He failed to fire when last seen on his handicap debut at Ballinrobe back in July but I am always willing to forgive a horse a poor effort on their handicap bow.

Since that run he has left Barry Murphy and the fact that Collins has travelled down to this venue could be significant. Four of his nine previous runners at this track have finished in the first four and the booking of Cian Quirke is another good sign. He has had four previous rides for the yard and he has finished in the first four on three of them.

Is this horse one for maximum stakes? Most certainly not, but he definitely has some level of ability and if he could repeat the form of his Kilbeggan maiden hurdle fourth over this trip in June, Island McCoo might outrun his odds of 40/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Island McCoo e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)

-Dave Stevos

2024 Becher Chase Ante-Post Tip

Tounsivator got the job done for us at Fairyhouse on Sunday. He was our only winner, but I think we got a half-decent run for our money with all four of our bets. Three of them returned as losers, but an 18/1 winner ensured we didn’t go home empty handed.

Next weekend, the main handicap attraction is the Becher Chase at Aintree. This is one of my favourite races on the calendar. Okay, the Grand National fences aren’t as fearsome as they once were but even so, I still think they take a bit of jumping and when a horse takes to the fences, like Highland Lodge and Vieux Lion Rouge a few years ago, it can pay to back them.

Back in 2022, I put Percussion up for this race at odds of 20/1. He was running off a mark of 130 that day and he finished third, 5.5l behind the winner Ashtown Lad. Laura Morgan’s charge has also run well over these fences over shorter trips and overall, his form figures over the National Fences read 32237. That seventh came in the Topham last month, but I am hoping that was a pipe opener for the main event.

Ideally, I’d like to see some good in the ground description for this lad, especially over this trip, but he does handle testing conditions. His owner’s record suggests he targets races at this track (25% win/60% place) and he also has Fantastic Lady entered, so I’ll probably have a small interest on her too. 

However, we know for a fact that Percussion enjoys jumping these fences and that he stays this far. As I mentioned earlier, I am hoping his last run was a prep for this and while it’s looking like he might have to run from a few pounds out of the handicap if Coko Beach or Chianti Classico take their chance, he is more than capable of being competitive off 130 or lower. At odds of 20/1, Percussion is well worth backing each way.

2024 Becher Chase Ante-Post Tip: Percussion e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP

-DaveStevos