Saturday, 8 February 2025

2025 Navan Boyne Hurdle Meeting Preview

Beat The Bat landed the place for us at 25s on Saturday at Newbury but our other two selections bombed out. I was fuming when Royale Margaux went and won, I talked myself out of tipping her on account of there being only two places on offer. A 25/1 winner slipped through our fingers, extremely frustrating. I am going to throw a couple of e/w darts on Sunday, check out my 2025 Navan Boyne Hurdle meeting preview & tips below.

2.10 – Apple’s Jade Mares’ Novice Hurdle (Listed)

She is shorter than the horses I usually put up but odds of 17/2 about Grainne A Chroi are too tempting to turn down. This is a horse that first came to my attention when I was doing the spotlights for the Racing Post for the maiden hurdle she ran in at Tramore.

She ran a cracker that day behind Karniquet and Downmexicoway and the way she was ridden suggested that connections were aiming for a place rather than a win. She finished 12l behind the winner but only 0.5l behind Downmexicoway and if she was ridden like she was when winning last time out at Clonmel, I think she could have got a lot closer to the Mullins’ horse.

Downmexicoway has since franked that form, beating Scalpnagoon by 10l in a maiden at Downpatrick and he further boosted the form by winning on Saturday at Naas. Karniquet finished runner-up behind the mightily impressive Kopek Des Bordes in a Grade 1 at the DRF and he was 9l clear of the third so that Tramore form doesn’t look too shabby now.

The heavier the ground, the better for this daughter of Mount Nelson and she has placed form over 19f in bumpers so I am not too concerned about her getting the trip today. My biggest worry is that she might be ridden to get some black type in third but I don’t think she has much to fear from any of today’s rivals so at odds of 17/2, back Grainne A Chroi e/w.

Navan Sunday Tip: Grainne A Chroi e/w @ 17/2 NAP

2.40 – Boyne Hurdle (Grade 2)

This is certainly not a vintage renewal. The 2022 winner Thedevilscoachman bounced back to form in a big way behind Rocky’s Diamond at Gowran Park 17 days ago and if he can back that up, he should win. However, if you look at his overall profile that is far from guaranteed.

Maxxum, one of three for Gordon Elliott, was back in sixth at Gowran, over 8l behind the Meade horse, and he has won over this C&D too. However, he may not relish the forecast soft to heavy ground at Navan so he doesn’t make much appeal at just 9/2.

Former Gold Cup here Minella Indo hasn’t run over hurdles since 2019. He has won both his previous starts here over the bigger obstacles but he’s a 12yo now and this is surely just a stepping stone for him as he will likely be heading back to Aintree for the Grand National in the spring after his fine run in the race last season.

Meet And Greet finished second in this race in 2023. I thought he might go on and win a Grade 1 at some point but he lost his way somewhat. He did bounce back to form with a nice win at Limerick over Christmas but as is the case with Maxxum, this ground might be soft enough for him.

Farren Glory will go on the ground but he is burdened with a 9lb penalty for his Grade 1 win last season and he might need to get his eye in back over hurdles after four chase starts this season.

Riviere d’Etel likes it here and will handle the testing conditions. She gets a weight allowance too and given that there are more holes in her rivals than there is in a jumbo packet of polo mints, she may be the safest bet. At 9/1, she is worth chancing each way.

Navan Sunday Tip: Riviere d’Etel e/w @ 9/1

3.12 – Gibney’s Handicap Hurdle (110 = 11st 12lbs)

The one I am tempted by at a nice price here is the mare, Cooltubrid Eva. Trained in Waterford by Diarmuid Ryan, this horse was mugged on debut in a Limerick maiden hurdle on dire ground by the now 130+ rated Judiceuse Allen. 

It is fair to say that things haven’t exactly gone to plan since but she showed a tiny bit more on her second handicap start at Cork last month and if she can build on that, she might be able to sneak into the money here.

She was beaten 15.5l for the win that day but she got 4lbs back from the assessor and with Philip Donovan claiming 5lb, she is effectively 9lbs lower today. By Champs Elysees, her dam’s best effort on the track came over today’s trip of 2m6f and her grand dam is a half to Cornish Sett, the runner up in the 2008 Welsh National. Her pedigree suggests she’ll appreciate this step up in trip and her run style gives similar vibes.

This is a weaker contest than her last race and if she doesn’t get too far back early, hopefully Cooltubrid Eva can stay on late up the Navan hill and hit the frame here at odds of 25/1.

Navan Sunday Tip: Cooltubrid Eva e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

Tuesday, 4 February 2025

Spirits Could Go Well At Newbury

The Betfair Hurdle, now known as the William Hill Hurdle, is the feature race at Newbury on Saturday. I put Glory And Fortune up for this race a couple of years ago after he ran a cracker in a Grade 2 behind Epatante and after Spirits Bay ran so well in the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham, I am hoping he can follow in his hoofsteps.

Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, who won this a few years ago with Ballyandy, we backed him e/w at 100/1 for the International. My hope was that Brentford Hope and Fils d’Oudairies might falter and he would sneak second but unfortunately, he could only manage third.

However, it was still a cracking effort. He finished 2.25l behind Brentford Hope off level weights and that horse is rated 146. He was getting 4lb from Fils d’Oudairies, who is also rated 146, and he finished 3l in front of him. Constitution Hill won the race, finishing 5.25l in front of the Twiston-Davies horse giving him 6lb and he is rated 175.

Now, it would be foolish to take the proximity of Spirits Bay to Constitution Hill literally but I think the fact he split two 146 horses (and had the 132 rated Joyeux Machin 5l behind in third) suggests that he might be pretty well treated for this race off a mark of 126.

Yes, he had been beaten off that sort of rating in handicaps on his first two starts of this season but he may have needed his return when fifth at Cheltenham and I’m not sure he was suited by being ridden prominently when he was third at Haydock in January.

He ran poorly on his sole previous visit to this track in March of last year but the 2m3f trip was probably against him. On the evidence of his last run, 2m on a flat left-handed track in a strongly run race might really suit him and he’ll be fine once there is soft in the ground description (though ideally I’d like to see it soft or heavy).

Maybe he was flattered by that last run but maybe he wasn’t so at odds of 33/1, it is worth backing Spirits Bay e/w.

Newbury William Hill Hurdle Tip: Spirits Bay e/w @ 33/1 (1/4 odds 4 places)

-DaveStevos

Sunday, 2 February 2025

2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday Tips

An average start to the weekend for us. Our NAP Mozzies Sister hung on for third and Galileo Dame surely would have won but for a slow leap at the last. It was downhill from there on in. Hosaamm refused to race, Glen Kiln didn’t see out the trip and Rewired, Flight Deck and The Big Chap all ran stinkers. Hopefully we can do better today, check out Dave’s 2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday preview below.

12.40 Leopardstown – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

We have already backed Brucio at 25s for this race but unfortunately, she has been taken out of the race this morning. I’m not going in again. No bet.

2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday Tip: No Bet

1.10 Leopardstown – Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1)

Ballyburn’s jumping limitations were exposed behind Sir Gino at Sandown but he might find things happening a bit more slowly over this longer trip. There’s no doubting his engine but given how he has jumped on his first two starts over fences, you’d have to be a bit wary of steaming in on him at skinny odds.

Impaire Et Passe is another horse with heaps of ability and he has jumped pretty well in both starts to date. Now, it is a slight concern that both his chase starts have come on right handed tracks and he is also 0-2 at Leopardstown, albeit over hurdles. Maybe he’ll be fine but with those slight doubts, I am tempted to take both the market principals on.

Written Off

Croke Park has been written off by the oddsmakers. He beat Better Days Ahead over three miles here in December, and previously, he lowered the colours of Firefox and Heart Wood in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse and the latter horse did the form no harm when running a fine race in fourth in the Savills Chase.

A confirmed front runner, hopefully Sam Ewing goes hard from the outset, gets into a good rhythm and puts the jumping of Ballyburn and Impaire Et Passe under pressure. Maybe they’ll be too good for him but odds of 16/1 look ok to me about Gordon Elliott’s charge, hopefully he’ll make a bold bid.

2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday Tip: Croke Park e/w @ 12/1

1.40 Leopardstown – Tattersalls Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

We have already backed the English raider Good and Clever for this. I was hoping for a bit more rain for him but there should be sufficient juice in the ground for him. Fingers crossed they go hard early and he comes home fast and late.

2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday Tip: Good And Clever already advised e/w @ 16/1

2.10 Leopardstown – Dublin Chase (Grade 1)

This looks an open renewal. Gaelic Warrior has unseated and finished second in his two previous chase starts here. He has won one of his last four so he’s hardly bulletproof. El Fabiolo is a poor jumper. The money has come for him but if they go a decent clip, it will be interesting to see if his jumping stands up to the test.

The visibility was poor for the Grade 1 chase here over Xmas but even so, it was plain to see that Solness beat Gaelic Warrior and Marine Nationale comfortably. He went from the front, jumped well (from what we could see) and in the end he won by over 3l.

The son of Konig Turf is only a 7yo so there could easily be more improvement to come from him and he’ll be happy that Leopardstown seems to have avoided the worst of the rain. 10/1 looks far too big a price to me and at those odds, he has to be worth backing e/w.

2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday Tip: Solness e/w @ 10/1 NAP

2.25 Musselburgh – Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Lord Accord is a horse I have long fancied to win a big pot. I strongly fancied him for the Kim Muir in 2022 and 2023 but he was a non-runner the first time and he didn’t get his favoured ground on the second occasion.

Decent ground is vital for this son of Yeats and he should get that at Musselburgh. He has tried this sort of marathon trip once before in the Scottish National and was beaten 20l into ninth but he was running off 135 that day. He’s 7lb lower here in a lesser race and he’s been in excellent form so far this season.

Inis Orr stays longer than the mother in law and he rates as a big threat but at odds of 16/1, I’ll take a chance on Lord Accord.

2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday Tip: Lord Accord e/w @ 16/1

2.45 Leopardstown – Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Adamantly Chosen is a horse we have backed a couple of times before here. We landed a lovely place with him at 40s in the Grade 1 novice chase at this meeting in 2023 and I am hoping he can bounce back to that sort of form today in the first time cheekpieces.

In December 2023 Paul Townend chose to ride him for the Paddy Power here and he finished a poor tenth off 148. He ran a bit better in this race last year, finishing seventh, well beaten for the win. He again ran in the Paddy Power here over Xmas and never figured, so why am I backing him I hear you ask…

Grade 1 Form

Well, I think this horse has a lot of ability, as he showed when placing in successive Grade 1 novices in 2023. He is not quite at Grade 1 level but I think he is capable of running to maybe 150-155 at his best. Now, he has burst before so that could be holding him back but that was over 4m2f in the Aintree National and it hasn’t happened before over this shorter trip (well it hasn’t been reported).

I think the drying ground will suit him, he’s dropped to a mark of 143 and he should be nearing peak fitness after two runs this season. Given his profile, he certainly isn’t one to be having the house on but I think he’s going to pop up in one of these big handicaps one day and at 33/1, it’s worth chancing that today is the day.

2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday Tip: Adamantly Chosen e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

3.20 Leopardstown – Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

Lossiemouth takes on State Man and the bookies are finding it hard to split them. Paul Townend has kept the faith with State Man but loyalty isn’t always rewarded in life. Both horses are short enough and with just two places on offer, we’ll sit this out.

2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday Tip: No Bet

3.50 Leopardstown – Timeless Window Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

We have already backed Irish Panther for this race at 25/1 and the money has come. Hopefully it is from connections.

2025 Leopardstown & Musselburgh Sunday Tip: Irish Panther already advised e/w @ 25/1

-DaveStevos

Wednesday, 29 January 2025

2025 Grand National Ante-Post Tip

Last year we managed to nail the winner of the Aintree Grand National I Am Maximus ante-post at 25/1. It was the first time I managed to find the winner since One For Arthur in 2017 so it was quite a long time between drinks. I Am Maximus has an obvious chance of following up but it won’t be easy off a much higher mark than last year and I am going to take him on with Beauport.

We backed this horse last year for the Midlands National at 16/1 and he absolutely hosed up. That win came off 140 and he pulled up off his revised mark of 145 in the Scottish National on his next start but that run may have come too soon. Nigel Twiston-Davies left him off for his summer break after that run and he returned to action with a bang in the Berkshire National at Ascot (29.5f, good) in November.

Running off 144, he jumped like a buck, bar an iffy leap at the last, and he absolutely dotted up by over 30 lengths. It was a seriously impressive performance and connections immediately nominated Aintree as the ultimate aim after the race.

To keep him ticking over, Twiston-Davies decided to give him a spin in the Long Walk Hurdle back at Ascot in December. He ran a blinding race again to finish third, just 1.5l behind Crambo and with the likes of The Wallpark and Kateira a couple of lengths behind him.

That run came on good to soft, it was good when he won there in November and it was heavy when he won at Uttoxeter so it seems all ground comes alike to him, a big plus when backing a horse ante-post for any race.

I Am Maximus was an exception last year but usually, I like backing horses that race prominently in the Grand National as it means they are less likely to encounter trouble in running. Beauport ticks that box, he has won over 4m2f so his stamina is assured and if he doesn’t run between now and the race that will be another positive given his solid record when fresh. I think he should be half his current odds of 33/1, so back Beauport e/w for the 2025 Grand National.

2025 Grand National Ante-Post Tip: Beauport e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

Tuesday, 28 January 2025

2025 DRF Leopardstown E/W Lucky 15

First off all, a recap on our three runners at Naas on Sunday. American Money jumped very well, the trip may just have been a furlong too far for him. He should be up to winning a chase at some point. Good Land was given a pretty tender ride but he wasn’t far off a place and he could be well treated if he heads handicapping. Answering was ridden from the front and didn’t get home.

A bad day at the office but there’s plenty of opportunities for redemption this weekend. I have found four horses for a 2025 DRF Leopardstown E/W lucky 15 (e/w singles also recommended), find out who I am backing below.

Juvenile Hurdle – Saturday @ 1.50pm (Grade 1)

The one that stands out at a decent price in this Juvenile Grade 1 is the Joseph O’Brien trained Galileo Dame. This daughter of Galileo Gold was a classy operator on the flat. A winner of a 10f maiden here on her second start (her first as a 3yo), she progressed well through the season and on her last two starts on the level in 2024 she got to within 4l of the 104 rated Caught U Looking and within 3l of the top class stayer Hamish, in 12f Listed races at Naas and the Curragh.

She ended up with a flat rating of 96 and she started out over hurdles in a maiden here over Christmas. Wendrock beat her by 2l but given her lack of experience in this sphere, it was a more than pleasing debut effort. I can see her getting much closer to that rival here, and it would be no surprise were she to turn the form around.

The likes of Sainte Lucie, Hello Neighbour and Lady Vega Allen have achieved more over hurdles but Galileo Dame should have lots of improvement to come given the level of ability she showed on the level and hopefully she can get into the money at odds of 16/1.

2025 Dublin Racing Festival Tip: Galileo Dame e/w @ 16/1

Mares’ Handicap Hurdle – Sunday @ 12.40 (Listed)

It would be fair to say that things haven’t really gone to plan for Brucio since she won this race easily off 116 last year. However, this will be the first time she will be running over the same trip on soft ground since and it wouldn’t be the biggest of surprises were she to bounce back to form here.

She has had two runs this season. At Down Royal in November (17f, good to yielding) she was beaten out of sight but she ran a better race on her latest start at Doncaster over 2m on good to soft 50 days ago, beaten 13.5l into fifth of 8 behind Jungle Jack.

Steven Crawford’s daughter of Authorized was hiked up 16lb to 132 for her 6l win in this last year but she has slipped back down to a mark of 124 now. If Crawford decides to use a 7lb claimer, she’ll effectively be running off 117, just a pound higher than she was for her win last season. Hopefully, a repeat bid in this contest has been the long term plan and if it has, she can outrun her generous looking odds of 25/1.

2025 Dublin Racing Festival Tip: Brucio e/w @ 25/1

Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle – Sunday @ 1.40 (Grade 1)

In the hope that they go a proper end to end gallop, Good And Clever gets the nod in this 2m Grade 1. The English raider landed a nice place for us at Aintree on his first go in Grade 1 company on just his second start over hurdles and while he was 7l behind the winner Potters Charm, he was ridden to come home late and pick up the pieces. I think they might ride him a bit closer to the pace here, now that they know he is capable of mixing it at this level.

The two market leaders, Kopek Des Bordes and Kaid D’Authie, are taking a big step up in grade here. Bleu De Vassy has won a Grade 3 and been placed behind Romeo Coolio in a Grade 1, both at this venue, and you could argue that he is overpriced too.

However, so is Good And Clever and his trainer Warren Greatrex won at this meeting with La Bague Au Roi in 2019, maybe he can repeat the trick this year. At odds of 16/1, Good And Clever will hopefully give us a decent run for our e/w money.

2025 Dublin Racing Festival Tip: Good And Clever e/w @ 16/1

Handicap Hurdle – Sunday @ 3.50pm (Listed)

Irish Panther ran a cracking race to finish third on his handicap debut at this track on St Stephen’s Day and with that experience under his belt, he can go well again upped to this higher level. This son of Lucarno must have been fragile as a younger horse as he was raced very sparingly since his excellent rules’ debut here when he finished 2l behind Fact To File in a bumper in 2022.

He then got to within 4.5l of Ballyburn at Punchestown in another bumper a couple of months later so there is no doubt that he has plenty of ability. After a 195 day break he ran well to be placed in a couple of maiden hurdles in November 2023 but he was off the track for another 164 days after those two runs.

After another three month break he made his handicap debut over this C&D off 118 in December and he finished a 5.5l third behind the winner Shraheen. In second, 3.5l ahead of Irish Panther, was Cloonainra, since narrowly denied in a Haydock Grade 2, and Harty’s charge was conceding 11lb to that rival who is now rated 124.

Irish Panther could be well handicapped off 119 on that evidence and he has placed on both previous runs at this venue so at odds of 25/1, he is the each way selection.

2025 Dublin Racing Festival Tip: Irish Panther e/w @ 25/1  

-DaveStevos

Saturday, 25 January 2025

2025 Naas Limestone Lad Meeting Preview

After Believitanducan’s effort in the opener at Cheltenham I feared the worst. The ground wasn’t as soft as I hoped and he was simply too slow. Thankfully, Yellow Car gave us a nice winner in the River Don at 16s. Spirits Bay ran an absolute cracker for us in the Unibet Hurdle but it was only good enough for third. Transmission was unfortunately only out for a Saturday stroll in the Cleeve. I like a trio of bets for Sunday, my 2025 Naas Limestone Lad Meeting preview is below.

1.00 – Novice Handicap Chase (130 = 11st12)

Petit King would be tempting on a right handed track but going this way round, I’ll be leaving him alone. The one that appeals most at a half-decent price in this 2m4f handicap is the dual course winner, American Money. He took a 2m3f handicap hurdle off 104 at this meeting last year and he then followed up a month and a half later off 7lb higher over 15.5f.

He ended up with a rating of 121 over the smaller obstacles and after a summer break, he has returned with two below par runs in beginners chases. The handicapper certainly wasn’t impressed by those efforts at Navan and Fairyhouse and has rewarded him with an opening chase mark of 113, just 2lb higher than he was when beating Lazer Wolf over timber here last February (and he won a novice handicap chase last month off 116).

Kieran Buckley was on board for his last win and he’s ridden him in both chases so he knows the horse well. Given his course record, you’d imagine he’ll be doing his best so at odds of 16/1, American Money is worth chancing each way.

2025 Naas Limestone Lad Meeting Tip: American Money e/w @ 16/1 NAP

2.00 – Limestone Lad Hurdle (Grade 3)

A pitiful turnout for the feature with just three runners declared. The great Limestone Lad would not be impressed. Anzadam is prohibitive odds to maintain his unblemished record and given the manner of his Fairyhouse win, the Champion Hurdle hopeful will likely be hard to beat.

The form of Laafi’s Limerick maiden win has since taken a couple of knocks but he might make a race of it. The veteran Beacon Edge has a big experience edge but two miles is not his thing and a clear round and a nice bit of prize money for third will be on his agenda. No bet.

2025 Naas Limestone Lad Meeting Tip: No Bet

2.30 – Novice Chase (Grade 3)

Dancing City is short odds to complete a rapid fire Donnelly double in this race. However, I am going to take him on with Good Land. Trained and owned by Barry Connell, this son of Blue Bresil managed to win a Grade 1 over hurdles at Leopardstown in February 2023. He followed that with a creditable fourth in the Ballymore at Cheltenham, finishing 11.5l behind Impaire Et Passe.

This horse missed the whole of last season with a tendon injury. He has gone straight over fences since returning to action and he wasn’t disgraced on either start. Last time out he finished fourth in the Grade 1 Faugheen Chase at Limerick, 14 odd lengths behind Impaire Et Passe. He got badly outpaced on the turn for home before running on again after the last and on that evidence, this longer trip looks well worth a try.

Given his achievements over hurdles, and that last chase run, I’m not sure he should be fourth best in the betting here. He has plenty of class and if he stays, he could be a danger to all. At odds of 9/1, Good Land is the each way selection.

2025 Naas Limestone Lad Meeting Tip: Good Land e/w @ 9/1

3.30 – Punchestown Festival Qualifier Handicap Hurdle (120 = 11st12)

I tipped up Must Go Now for the Racing Post on New Year’s Day and he hacked up. Unfortunately, he’s too short for the blog today. We had our fingers burnt by That’s All at the Thyestes Meeting on Thursday but hopefully we can gain some compensation with her stable companion Answering here.

A maiden winner at Thurles last March on heavy (2m), a month later he pitched up at this venue for his handicap debut off 116 (2m, soft). Outpaced at the top of the straight, he ran on very nicely after jumping the last, staying on into fourth, beaten just 3.5l for the win.

He hasn’t had soft ground for his three runs since then so I am willing to forgive those tame efforts. The return to Naas is a plus, it looked like this trip would be right up his alley here last season and he’s now 4lb lower than he was for that run. He had a pipe opener at Thurles last month, hopefully that has left him spot on fitness wise and if it has, Answering is capable of outrunning his odds of 25/1.

2025 Naas Limestone Lad Meeting Tip: Answering e/w @ 25/1 (5 places) NB

-DaveStevos

Wednesday, 22 January 2025

2025 Gowran Park Thyestes Meeting

We have already backed Macs Charm for the race that stops a county, you can read why here. Given the day that’s in it, we may as well try to find some e/w bets at nice prices in some of the other races, my 2025 Gowran Park Thyestes meeting tips are below.


1.38 – Langtons Kilkenny Handicap Hurdle (0-100)

We backed the winner of this race at 33/1 in 2023 so hopefully it is kind to us again. Timothy Doyle is a trainer who has had plenty of success at this venue, particularly on the flat, and he is represented by That’s All. This 8yo daughter of Morpheus remains a maiden after 21 starts (9 over hurdles) but she has ability and I think she might be capable of hitting the frame here off a mark of 86.

She only made her handicap debut in November and she ran poorly that day at Fairyhouse but she showed more on her next start, here over 2m4f on yielding ground. She managed to finish sixth of 15 off a mark of 90, beaten 15l for the win and 10.5l for the place. Dropped out in rear, she travelled into the race really nicely but her stamina ran out between the last two flights.

She filled the same position in her next two starts, both on good ground, but last time out she managed to get third at Punchestown (16.5f hvy), beaten 6l for the win by Falcon Park, who reopposes here. Doyle’s mare was conceding 6lb to that rival at Punchestown, with jockey’s claims taken into account she’ll be getting 11lbs from him here, a hefty 17lb swing.

Ar Nos Na Gaoithe was 4l back in fourth that day and she is 12/1 here, That’s All is 20s. I don’t see any reasons why Doyle’s mare can’t uphold that form and I think she has every chance of getting a whole lot closer to Falcon Park on these terms. So, at odds of 20/1, That’s All is the each way selection.

2025 Gowran Park Thyestes Meeting Tip: That’s All e/w @ 20/1 NAP (5 places)

2.13 – Galmoy Hurdle (Grade 2)

Unfortunately, the cat is out of the bag regarding Rocky's Diamond. He landed a smashing place for us at Leopardstown last month but he isn’t going to be 66/1 this time around. 8/1 can still be got at the time of writing, too short for the blog but still a half-decent price. He’s won here before and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won this weak looking Grade 2.

You can pick holes in lots of his rivals. The 11yo Asterion Forlonge, who has won two races since April 2021, is 4/1. That’s right, 4/1. Buddy One is a horse I like but he’s been chasing and he may need to get his eye back in over the smaller obstacles. Sandor Clegane usually travels well but finds little.

It looks to me like Rocky’s Diamond has Hiddenvalley Lake to beat. He’s a Grade 2 winner and has placed in Grade 1s on his last two starts. Apart from him, Franciscan Rock is the only one that makes much appeal and his odds of 14/1 are tempting. However, I am going to take a chance on the Rocky’s Diamond/Hiddenvalley Lake reverse forecast. They are by far the two most solid looking options, hopefully they can fight out the finish.

2025 Gowran Park Thyestes Meeting Tip: Rocky’s Diamond/Hiddenvalley Lake reverse forecast

2.48 – Thyestes Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

We’ve already backed Macs Charm for this at 50/1 and I am happy with my lot. Stormy Judge could be worth a few pennies e/w if he gets a run but hopefully we can land the e/w money with Macs.

2025 Gowran Park Thyestes Meeting Tip: Macs Charm already advised e/w @ 50/1

-DaveStevos

Monday, 20 January 2025

Mac Can Bounce Back In The Thyestes

The Galmoy Hurdle and, more importantly, the Thyestes Handicap Chase are the feature races at Gowran Park on Thursday. It is a race that I have a mixed record in over the years. The first ever tip I put up for it was My Murphy, who won in 2016 at 20/1, we landed a place with Wounded Warrior who finished second in 2018 and in 2023 Espanito Bello ran into fifth.

Other years have not proved as fruitful but I reckon Macs Charm can give each way players a decent run for their money in the 2025 renewal. Trained by Colm Murphy, this 10yo son of Le Fou looks like he has been trained for this race. He has had two runs so far this season, one over hurdles and one chase over an inadequate trip and the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 135.

Well Handicapped

A year ago he ran into fifth in this race off a mark of 141. He was only beaten 8l for the win and a short head for fourth, so he is certainly handicapped to finish closer off a 6lb lower rating. The ground was heavy that day but he acts on soft and his last win came on that sort of ground off this mark at Fairyhouse back in April 2023.

Not only is he on a competitive looking mark, he also loves Gowran Park. He has run there four times in the past, once over hurdles and in three chases, and he has form figures of 1225 at the track. He’s guaranteed to get a run, he should get his ground so hopefully, he’ll be declared in the morning. At odds of 50/1, Macs Charm is worth backing each way.

2025 Thyestes Chase Tip: Macs Charm e/w @ 50/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

-DaveStevos

2025 Triumph Hurdle Cheltenham Ante-Post Tip

After his impressive win at Ascot, Nicky Henderson’s French recruit Lulamba has been cut to 6/4 for the Triumph and is now the clear market leader. He showed a neat turn of foot to put the race to bed after the final hurdle and he’s undoubtedly a smart horse but I thought there was an awful lot to like about the effort of the runner up Mondo Man on his hurdling debut. If he can settle better at Cheltenham, I think he can narrow the 3.5l margin of defeat substantially, and perhaps even turn it around.

This is a horse that regular readers of my previews will be familiar with. We backed him in the G1 French Derby, where he finished fifth and also in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he finished fourth. His last run on the flat was poor but he ended up with a rating of 111 in that sphere and he was picked up by current connections for a cool 520k in October at the Arqana Arc Sale.

Pulled Like A Dog

To say he did a lot wrong at Ascot would be a massive understatement. He pulled like an absolute dog for at least three quarters of the race, yet he still kept on well for second and while he had no answers when Lulamba turned the screw inside the final 150 yards, that was understandable given how he had behaved throughout the race.

He often raced keenly on the flat too, particularly when he was running on home turf in France where they usually go a crawl early before the race turns into a sprint at the finish. I think he will be seen to much better effect when he encounters a proper end to end gallop, which he will hopefully get in the Triumph.

Ground Versatile

Mondo Man jumped pretty well at Ascot so he should be fine in that department. He seems to act on all sorts of ground, which is always a big plus for any ante-post bet, and unless something emerges from the Dublin Racing Festival in a couple of weeks, there doesn’t look to be any superstars lurking in the shadows in Ireland.

Even though he’ll be worse off at the weights with Lulamba in March, I still think he can run to a much higher level if they go a proper gallop and he settles so at odds of 25/1, Mondo Man is worth backing each way.

2025 Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle Ante-Post Tip: Mondo Man e/w @ 25/1

-DaveStevos


Thursday, 16 January 2025

2025 Windsor & Market Rasen Friday Preview

The Moscow Flyer meeting at Punchestown didn’t go as I hoped. Enjoy d’Allen did what he usually does and that’s the last time I’ll be tipping him (I swear!). Artic Lane was outclassed and unfortunately, Chosen Diamond needed the run badly. We have three days of quality action to get stuck into this weekend, I’ll be previewing the Berkshire Million meeting on my own blog and Saturday’s action will be covered on the TXMarkets blog. My 2025 Windsor & Market Rasen Friday tips are below.

2.35 Market Rasen – Veterans’ Handicap Chase Final (Class 2)

This race has fallen foul of the weather a couple of times already. I put Smarty Wild up when it was scheduled to be run at Sandown earlier this month and my main angle for fancying him was his liking for right-handed tracks. Pulled up on his return from a year off at Haydock in December, his form figures going left handed read 455P, going the other way they read 3313332F232.

He gets in here off a mark of 127. He is actually rated 125 but even though he is 2lb wrong at the weights, he was placed on his last three starts of 2022/2023 off 133 so I am not too worried about him being out of the handicap. I am hoping he needed his comeback run and that he'll improve plenty for it.

Philip Hobbs and Johnson White have had five winners from their last nine runners, hopefully Smarty Wild gives them another winner on Friday at odds of 10/1.

2025 Windsor & Market Rasen Friday Tip: Smarty Wild e/w @ 10/1

3.35 Windsor – Sovereign Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

There’s a big pot up for grabs here. The total purse is £110k with £57k going to the winner. We have backed Cracking Rhapsody a couple of times, including at a lovely price when he won the Morebattle at Kelso last season. We also backed him at Cheltenham on his penultimate outing, where he ran poorly, but he bounced straight back from that effort on his next start at Kelso, where he hosed up in a mickey mouse class 3 handicap off 127.

That win came on soft, it was also soft when he was beaten a length in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr last year and overall, his form figures in soft ground handicaps read 2131. His Morebattle win came on good to soft so he won't mind once there is a bit of juice in the ground. 

The ground was good when he flopped at Cheltenham so I am willing to forgive him that run and I think he might still have a bit more wriggle room off his revised mark of 133. 20/1 about Cracking Rhapsody looks a shade too big to my eyes and at those odds, he has to be worth chancing each way.

2025 Windsor & Market Rasen Friday Tip: Cracking Rhapsody e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos