2024 Cheltenham Sunday Preview

We have already backed Churchstonewarrior for the Troytown, read why here. I also have one for the Greatwood tomorrow. Each way singles and an e/w double advised.

3.30 Cheltenham – Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

All the talk in the lead up to this race has been about Dysart Enos. I have heard some pundits say she is the best handicapped horse in training, which might well be true, but as regular readers of the blog will know, I am not a fan of backing horses on their handicap debuts.

This mare has had just three starts over hurdles and they came in novice hurdles. In those races, probably at least 75% of her rivals were only out for a spin to get a mark, whereas in this ultra-competitive sixteen runner handicap, a lot more horses will be there to do their best.

Her lack of experience in races like this has to rate as a big negative and she also lacks a run. Now, on  a literal reading of her bumper win when beating Golden Ace would suggest a mark of 131 is generous, but whether she will be able to exploit it today is another question altogether.

Battle Hardened

The one I am going to back has already won a similarly competitive, big field handicap and we were on him at a nice price when he won it. Cracking Rhapsody, trained up in Scotland by Ewan Whillans, landed the Morebattle at Kelso in March off a mark of 119. He absolutely hosed up and he then followed that up with a sterling effort in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr, beat a length off 128.

He made his return to action at Hexham in a Mickey Mouse handicap early last month and he shaped well in a race that wasn’t run to suit. He is suited by big fields and a proper gallop, and he should get both of those things today. Craig Nichol knows him well, he has already placed in a hot handicap off just 1lb lower than he is here and the ground should be fine for him. At odds of 22/1, back Cracking Rhapsody e/w.

2024 Cheltenham & Navan Sunday Tip: Cracking Rhapsody e/w @ 22/1 (5 places) NB

Also: Cracking Rhapsody 22s & Churchstonewarrior 14s e/w double (both 5 places)

Warrior Can Strike In The Troytown

This Sunday at Navan we have one of the first major staying handicap chases of the season. The Troytown Chase is a race that Gordon Elliott likes to target and he has won it six times since 2014. Last year he had four of the first five finishers, including the 20/1 winner, Coko Beach.

This year, Elliott is responsible for twelve of the remaining 25 entries and all the talk has been about American Mike, who has been put in as the 5/1 ante-post favourite. A Grade 2 novice chase winner over C&D on heavy in February, his best form is on testing ground and he won’t be getting those conditions on Sunday, if the weather forecast is correct.

The one I have come down on is another C&D winner but unlike the fav, his peak efforts have come on ground with good in the description. Churchstonewarrior will be having his third start for Cian Collins on Sunday. He shaped ok on his stable debut at Tramore after a break and he then ran a lovely race on soft ground when fourth behind Flooring Porter in the Kerry National at Listowel in September.

Yes, he was beaten 20l behind the runaway winner but he got hampered at the tenth fence and he finished well ahead of the likes of Zanahiyr and Perceval Legallois, both of whom could re-oppose here. I thought it was a very pleasing effort considering the underfoot conditions and he’ll be much better suited by the sounder surface on Sunday.

When he won his Grade 2 novice here in 2023 it was on good to yielding ground, the same type of ground on which he won his novice hurdle. In that Grade 2 Chase he beat Mahler Mission by 0.75l off level weights and he is now rated 155, Churchstonewarrior runs off 146 here. Since then, he hasn’t hit the same heights but in his defence, he’s only had his favoured ground once and that was for his Kerry National prep run.

I am hoping that returning to the scene of his career best performance and the prospect of nice ground will enable this son of Mahler to get his head back in front. He should be fully fit now after two runs for Cian Collins and given that he has won here before, this may have always been the aim. Once the rain stays away, Churchstonewarrior is capable of running a massive race and he is worth backing e/w at odds of 16/1.

2024 Troytown Chase Tip: Churchstonewarrior e/w @ 16/1 NAP (1/4 odds, 4 places)

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip

The race that stops a nation and also the race I can never seem to get right. I think I have managed one place in the last five years but God loves a trier, as the saying goes, se we’ll do just that and try again.

The one that will have to carry the double penalty of the Stevos’ shilling this year is the former Andrew Balding inmate, Saint George. Now trained Down Under by Ciaron Maher, this 4yo grey son of Roaring Lion was good enough to place second in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase last year when trained by Balding. He found just Gregory too good by 0.5l and that horse hasn’t been beaten far in some top staying races this season.

He got to within 4.25l of Kyprios when third in the Goodwood Cup (a head behind Sweet William). At York in the G2 Lonsdale Cup he was 3l behind the fav for this race, Vauban, off level weights. So, on a line through Gregory, Saint George looks weighted to beat that rival getting 12lbs from him.

Two Fine Efforts

This lad has had three runs since moving to Australia and two of them have been fine efforts. On his Aussie debut he was beaten just half a length in a G3 handicap at Caulfield over 10f. He just lacked the pace to get up in the final furlong but he kept on well and it was a very encouraging effort considering it was his first run for over a year.

Two weeks later he didn’t run to his best at Flemington upped to 12f but the ground was good to soft and this horse is best on good or quicker. Even so, he seemed to handle the track well and despite finishing ninth, he was beaten just over 4l for the win.

Last time out in the Moonee Valley Cup it was much more like it. Dropped out early, his jockey was in no hurry to put him into the race. With just 200m to go he was still last and seemingly going nowhere but once his rider got stuck into him, with less than 100m to go, he picked up really well and finished off very strongly for fifth.

He finished just 3l behind Okita Sushi and he is 2lb better off with that rival now. He was 0.5l behind Sharp And Smart and I think he can turn that form around over this longer trip. Going up to two miles should really suit this fella and his dam is by Galileo, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue.

I am not too familiar with his jockey, Tyler Schiller, but he has ridden three winners in the last fortnight so he won’t be lacking in confidence. With no rain forecast, Saint George should get his favoured underfoot conditions and with five places on offer, he is worth chancing each way at odds of 25/1.

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip: Saint George e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

One For Friday At Cheltenham

After a torrid couple of weeks on the flat, I am glad to have some jumping action to get stuck into this weekend. First of all, Famed Again was far too keen early on at the Curragh on Tuesday. My hope was that she might settle better in the hood but she didn’t and there’s also a chance that the run may have come to soon after her big run at Naas. I still think she’ll win plenty of races.

The one I am interested in at Cheltenham on Friday goes in the amateur riders’ handicap at 3.35. I am hoping that Wick Green, trained by Ben Pauling, has been aimed this race. The 11yo son of Sagamix was a fine third in this last year, beaten just 1.5L off a mark of 121. A month later, he was fourth over 3m1f back here, beaten 5.75l off 122.

He then came back for a X-Country handicap chase in December and while he only finished eighth, he was running from 12lb out of the handicap so to be beaten 13 odd lengths wasn’t a bad effort. Subsequent to that run the 11yo ran below par races at Wincanton and Southwell in February and March and he was poor again in two runs after a 143 day break at Worcester in July/August.

However, the old boy shaped much better after another short break three weeks ago. He finished third of six, 6.5L behind Musical Slave at Fontwell (26f, gd/sft). That came off 117 and the handicapper has dropped him another 2lb to 115.

That means he is now 8lb lower than when beaten 1.5l in this last year and 2lb below his last winning mark. His rider has yet to win a race under rules but after doing some digging he has ridden winners in point to points so he isn’t totally inexperienced. Good ground will suit, he has run two of the best races of his life at this venue and the first time visor might bring back some spark so at odds of 33/1, an each way bet is advised.

Cheltenham Friday Tip: 3.35 – Wick Green e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

Famed Too Big At The Curragh

It was a bad day for us on Saturday at Ascot. Sweet William landed the e/w NB place money but apart from that, it was a day to forget. It is rare that I tip up horses in midweek on this blog but I am making an exception this week. There is a Group 3 race for 2yo fillies at the Curragh tomorrow and a couple look a touch overpriced to my eye.

First of all, Tamam Desert looks big at 22/1. After shaping with huge potential on her debut at Leopardstown, she confirmed that promise by winning at the Galway Festival. She still looked pretty green that day but she ran on well to just get up in that 7f heat and on that evidence, and on her breeding, this step up to a mile looks certain to suit.

She should go well but at an even bigger price, Famed Again is very interesting. Trained by Tom Cooper, who is better known for his exploits in the National Hunt sphere, this filly finished third behind Tamam Desert in that Galway maiden. She was only 1.75l behind that rival and she didn’t get as clear a run so she is more than capable of closing that gap.

However, the run that really caught my eye was her effort in the valuable 7f Auction race at Naas won by another of today’s rivals, Fiona Maccoul. Draw in stall 2, Ronan Whelan bustled her up the inside to get a decent early position. However, once she got into that position she began to race extremely keenly, fighting her jockey for the guts of a furlong and a half.

Despite those early antics, she kept on really well late on and she just failed to get third. At the line she was just over a length behind the winner, to whom she was conceding 4lbs, and a half a length behind her in fifth was Sigh No More, a Group 3 winner at Leopardstown on her next start. She was getting 6lbs from that rival but even so, it was an excellent effort.

On pedigree there’s a good chance a mile will suit and her effort at Galway suggested it would pose no problems too. Cooper now applies the hood, which will hopefully help her to settle better, and the quiet hands of Colin Keane could be a big help in that department too.

The assessor has rated her 78 and I think he could be wrong. I think she deserves to be rated at least in the mid-80s on the back of her last two runs and the fact that Cooper is running here instead of going for a nursery suggests that he might think the same. 

Keane is 1/9 with another five top four finishes when riding for the yard (66% frame hitting strike rate) so at odds of 66/1, surely Famed Again is worth throwing a few pennies at each way. Hopefully she can nick some precious black type. 

Stevos’ Selection: Famed Again e/w @ 66/1

2024 Champions Day – Soft Ground E/W Lucky 15

At the time of writing, it looks like soft ground is a certainty for Champions Day on Saturday. We have already backed Moss Tucker e/w at 66/1 for the Sprint, you can read why here. Obviously, he’ll be one of the selections for our soft ground e/w lucky 15, find out who else is getting the nod below.

2.35 – Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes

The one that interests me at a big price here is the exceptionally well bred filly Doha. Trained by Ralph Beckett, whose horses are in red hot form, this 4yo daughter of Sea The Stars is out of Treve, a two time Arc winner that handled soft ground. She has yet to hit the heights of her extremely talented mum but she is an improving filly and she is unexposed at this 1m4f trip on testing ground.

She has managed to win three of her eight turf starts, including the Kensington Palace here at the Royal Meeting over 1m on fast ground. Yes, that was only a handicap but she has run very well in three of her four starts in stakes company, culminating in a comfortable Listed win at Saint-Cloud on her latest start earlier this month.

She ran through the line strong in that 10f contest on very soft ground and on that evidence, this 1m4f trip looks well worth a try. On her penultimate start, over 8f on good ground in a Sandown G3 she found only Tamfana too good by 2.75l and she was conceding 6lb to the subsequent Sun Chariot winner who is now rated 118. That form looks alright to me, she has form figures of 1122 on soft ground and if this trip ekes out a bit more improvement, she could sneak into the frame here at odds of 33/1.

2024 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes Tip: Doha e/w @ 33/1

3.15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Charyn is a really likeable colt and he is going to be hard to beat here. However, like Tamfana, he’ll be having his seventh run of the season so there is a chance that they might be vulnerable to a fresher horse.

The one that looks most overpriced to me back on soft ground is the Roger Teal trained Dancing Gemini. He’s had just four runs this season and his best run, by far, came in the French 2000 Guineas on his first run back. He finished off his race powerfully for second, half a length behind Metropolitan who is an 8/1 shot here.

Since then, Metropolitan has run crackers in a pair of 8f G1s here and at Deauville, whereas things have not gone as smoothly for Dancing Gemini. Teal was convinced he’d stay further than a mile, but he doesn’t. He ran a creditable race in the Epsom Derby to finish sixth, but he faded late on. Even 10f proved too much of a stretch on his penultimate start at Sandown.

Last time out, Dancing Gemini ran in a Goodwood G3 back at a mile but I don’t think he was in love with the good to firm ground. He’s been given a 78 day break since, so he should be nice and fresh for this first run at a mile on soft ground since the French Guineas. He is 5x the price of Metropolitan, with whom he has just half a length to find on that Longchamp form. If he can repeat that run, Dancing Gemini can outrun his odds of 40/1.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Tip: Dancing Gemini e/w @ 40/1

4.35 – Balmoral Handicap

The final leg of our soft ground e/w lucky 15 is going to be Star Of Orion. Trained by the in form Eve Johnson Houghton, this son of Footstepsinthesand is a very consistent animal. Yes, he has only won three of his thirty two starts but he has finished second or third on thirteen occasions and since 2023, he has finished out of the first four just three times in fourteen starts.

His last win came off 91 on good to soft ground at Newmarket in July 2023. Since then he has hit the frame off 97 here over 7f, twice at Sandown off 96 and he was far from disgraced finishing seventh off that mark over 7f back here again earlier this month.

The 6yo has some solid form at this track. He has been beaten less than a length twice in big field 7f handicaps off 94 and 95 and he was beaten a short head off 97 here over 7f back in 2021. Is he well handicapped off 96? Probably not, but he has shown on multiple occasions he can be competitive off this kind of mark and at the prices we are playing at, a place will do.

He has yet to win over a mile or on soft ground but he has run some huge races in defeat. A year ago at York he was beaten 1.25L off 95 on soft ground over 1m at York and at Newmarket earlier this season, he was beaten 0.5l on good ground at 8f off 94. If he can finish as close to the winner here, it’ll hopefully be enough to get the place so at 33/1, Star Of Orion is the e/w selection.

2024 Balmoral Handicap Selection: Star Of Orion e/w @ 33/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

So, these are our four legs for our Champions Day Soft Ground e/w Lucky 15:

Champions Sprint: Moss Tucker @ 50/1

Champions Fillies And Mares: Doha @ 33/1

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes: Dancing Gemini @ 40/1

Balmoral Handicap: Star Of Orion @ 33/1

-DaveStevos

Mossy Can Prosper In The Muck At Ascot

Last weekend, most of my selections got stuck in the mud at Newmarket and York. Conditions look like being equally as gruelling at Ascot for Champions Day and if it comes up soft or heavy, Moss Tucker can make his presence felt in the Sprint.

We have done well in this race in the past. Donjuan Triumphant won for us at 33s, Brando was beaten a nose at 80s and we also had Run To Freedom in 2022 when he finished second at 150/1. Moss Tucker is currently chalked up at 66/1 but he is capable of making a mockery of those odds if he gets his favoured underhoof conditions.

It looks like this son of Excelebration has been trained for a backend soft ground campaign. After looking better than ever on his seasonal return in April at Naas (5f, yielding), he then disappointed on good ground at the Curragh in May. He was left off for over three months after that run and he made his return in the Sprint Cup at Haydock.

Unfortunately, the ground was good that day, just as it was when he ran down the field in the Flying Five at the Currah. Two weeks ago he did get soft ground in the L’Abbaye at Longchamp but unfortunately, the draw gods conspired against him and he never figured.

He didn’t have a hard race that day and I believe 6f on testing ground on a track like Ascot should really suit him. His career form figure on soft to heavy/heavy read 1151 with the fifth coming when he probably needed the run on his seasonal comeback last year. One of the wins came over 6f at the Curragh, where he beat Big Gossey by almost 4l.

Moss Tucker is already a Group 1 winner over 5f, he’s won a Group 3 over 6f and he’s a triple Listed winner at 5f/6f. He’s been totally written off for this by the bookies and to be honest, that is understandable on the back of his last four runs.

However, as I pointed out earlier, he has had excuses for all of those efforts and I think we’ll see a much better version of Mossy at Ascot on Saturday. At odds of 66/1, he is worth backing each way. Fingers crossed for lots of rain!

2024 Champions Sprint Stakes Tip: Moss Tucker e/w @ 66/1

-DaveStevos

Sun Could Shine At Longchamp

Unfortunately, Navagio decided to go to Haydock instead of the Cambridgeshire. I would imagine connections might regret the decision because looking at how powerfully he travelled, I think a fast run 9f on soft ground at Newmarket would have elicited a massive run and as it turned out, stall 13 would have been a great draw. However, the bottom line is that we did our money, but at least we managed to back the horse that beat him at Haydock.

This weekend it is all about one race. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. It is hard to believe it’ll be five years since we backed Waldgeist to win this race. We have managed to land a couple of nice places in more recent renewals, including Gold Trip at 50s in 2020 and Sealiway at 40s in 2021.

This year, I am backing a horse that I have had in mind for this race ever since he finished a staying on seventh in the Prix De Jockey Club back in June. Sunway, trained by David Menuisier, may have failed to get his head in front this season but he has a couple of pieces of form that suggest his odds of 66/1 are far too big.

We have already backed him this season, in the Irish Derby at 20s. He ran a massive race to finish second, staying on strongly in the last furlong to finish just 0.75l behind Los Angeles, who is as short as 6/1 for the Arc. Should Sunway be over 10x his price? On his next start in the King George he got hampered at a crucial moment but still ran with credit behind the easy winner Goliath.

Three weeks ago Sunway turned up in the St Leger. Yet again, he was a bit short of room but he ran on well to finish fourth, just 1.75l behind Jan Brueghel, a horse that is now one of the ante-post favourites for the Melbourne Cup.

The way this horse has been running this season reminds me a bit of Waldgeist the year he won this. He has been mostly thereabouts in all the right races and I think if things fall right for him, he is capable of going very close. Ballydoyle are likely to run at least one pacemaker so Sunway should get a solid pace to aim at and he goes on any ground, so it won’t really matter what the weather does.

His brother Sealiway stayed on well for fifth in this race in 2021 and I am hoping Sunway can go a couple of places better at least at odds of 66s. At the prices, he has to be worth a couple of quid e/w.

2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tip: Sunway e/w @ 66/1

-DaveStevos

Shark Attack At The Curragh

Flying Finn was our only winner on Saturday but she was a nice price at 20/1. Santa Savana really should have placed but got hampered at an inopportune moment. However, it was downhill after that. Unfortunately, Paddy The Squire ended up drawn on the wrong side. It would have been interesting to see how Navagio fared from stall 13, I’d imagine connections regret the decision to go to Haydock. I like one at the Curragh tomorrow at decent odds, you can see who I fancy below.

4.25 – Irish Cesarewitch Handicap (Premier)

With rain forecast tomorrow, the ground could be pretty testing by the time of this race. If it is, I think Enfranchise is capable of outrunning her odds of 33/1 for Shark Hanlon and Gavin Ryan.

This mare is very talented when she gets her optimum conditions. She likes a cut in the ground and she likes a trip and she should hopefully get both of those tomorrow (once the weather forecast is correct). Her form figures on the flat on soft/heavy ground read 221.

The last time this daughter of Invincible Spirit raced on properly testing ground was in a 14f listed heat at Gowran. Gavin Ryan, who is in the plate today, rode and she dotted up by 2l, beating Countess Of Tyrone. They meet again here and Enfranchise is 1lb better off so I’m not sure why she is 33/1 and the Twomey horse is only 20s.

In July this mare ran a blinder to finish fifth off 97 in the QR handicap at Galway on ground that was probably just on the lively side for her. She stayed on nicely and was 7l behind the winner at the line and she races off the same mark today.

I’d imagine her next two starts, over hurdles two days later at Galway and in a Listed heat there over 12f 19 days ago, were runs designed to keep her ticking over ahead of a shot at this race. I’m sure the Shark will be keen to go out with a bang with a big win before his ban kicks in, hopefully Enfranchise can deliver the goods for him at odds of 33/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Enfranchise e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) NAP

2024 Cambridgeshire Handicap Ante-Post Tip

Thank god for good old Commanche Falls. To be fair, Seven Questions ran a cracking race, as did Star Anthem. However, Li Ban wasn’t held up as I hoped and unsurprisingly faded late. It was a tough weekend of punting but at least we managed to avoid the dreaded blank with the NAP.

This weekend there is a quality Saturday card at Newmarket. The race I have my eye on for a little ante-post flutter is the Cambridgeshire Handicap and in the hope that the rain forecast for later this week materialises, I am throwing a few quid e/w at a 100/1 poke.

Back in March, Navagio had his first start for James Horton in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster (8f, sft). It was a UK baptism of fire for the son of Footstepsinthesand but he ran a massive race on the rain softened ground off a mark of 96.

Not once, not twice but three times he encountered traffic problems, so he did well to stay on for third, beaten 3.5l for the win by Mr Professor. Since then, however, he has failed to hit the same heights. He finished down the field at Newbury on his next start, he was then beaten 6l at Sandown in a mickey mouse handicap and after another nondescript effort at Newcastle, he was given a couple of months off.

On his return from that 71 day break he ran at Ascot (8f) and it looked like a sharpener for a bigger day. He was fresh early but he did run on well near the finish and I think the 9f at Newmarket will be right up his street. His last win, for Ray Cody in Ireland, came over that trip on soft at Gowran last year and he was giving 12lb to the 96 rated runner up.

After his last few runs, the handicapper has given Navagio a real chance. He is now down to a mark of 91, 5lb lower than he was for his fine run in the Lincoln. James Horton has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight, which is a plus, and though Navagio is also entered at Haydock this weekend, I am hoping Horton has been campaigning him with this race in mind.

His odds of 100/1 are more than big enough to warrant a small e/w interest, hopefully the rain arrives.

2024 Cambridgeshire Handicap Ante-Post Tip: Navagio e/w @ 100/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos