Spiller’s Charge Looks Overpriced At Newmarket

Sahreej ran a cracking race for us earlier at the Curragh, staying on well for 2nd behind Enter The Red. The 14/1 shot was given a good ride by young Danny Sheehy, and he went on to ride the winner of the next race for Adrian Keatley. He is a claimer with a big future and he is well worth keeping an eye on going forward as plenty of trainers will be looking to utilise his claim, which probably won’t last very long.

Henry Spiller has his string in fine fettle.

Tomorrow is Derby Day at the Curragh and I think Wings Of Eagles is definitely the one to beat. The only worry would be an easy surface but the weather forecast is good and the ground is likely to dry out. He won at Epsom on merit and he can follow up and give Aidan O’Brien yet another Irish Derby win. I also think Champagne Champ has a good each way chance in the Pitmen’s Derby at Newcastle and at odds of 33/1 he should run his usual solid race.

Saturday’s blog selection goes in the 10f handicap at 16.55 at Newmarket and local trainer Henry Spiller fires three bullets at this race. Canterbury Quad and Broughtons Knight wouldn’t be without chances off marks of 77 and 69 respectively, but I think his 80 rated handicap debutant Staff College looks interesting with Jim Crowley booked. This son of Slickly was last sighted 3 months ago finishing down the field on soft ground in France, but his sole run on good to soft was a cracker.

That came in an 8f maiden at Maisons-Laffitte in France and he was beaten less than a length in 3rd. The form of that race has worked out well, and the winner went on to beat a subsequent Group 2 winner before finishing 8th behind Brametot in the French Guineas. The 2nd, just a short head in front of Staff College went close behind a subsequent Group 3 winner next time and the 5th home won next time and has since scored in Listed company.

All that evidence suggests that Staff College should be well capable of making his presence felt here off a mark of 80 and the good to soft ground will suit. His dam is related to quality dual purpose performer Sentry Duty so the step up to 10f is another potential positive. Staff College is the joint highest rated horse in the field, but with the 3yo allowance he gets to race off just 9st 4lbs. The booking of Jim Crowley catches the eye and he finished 4th on his only previous ride for Spiller. I think odds of 16/1 look too big and Staff College is Saturday’s e/w selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 16.55 NEWMARKET-STAFF COLLEGE E/W @ 16/1

Keatley Can Strike At The Curragh

Ballinrobe was a complete disaster from a punting perspective with not one of my selections hitting the frame, let alone winning. However, apart from doing my conkers I enjoyed the day and it is a racecourse that I highly recommend paying a visit to. The locals really support the track and it was packed to the rafters on Tuesday evening. I have been to other tracks in Ireland for midweek meetings and I have yet to see crowds like I witnessed at Ballinrobe on Tuesday night.

Adrian Keatley has his string in good nick.

The horse racing powers that be have decided to hold the Derby at The Curragh this weekend, despite the disaster that was the Guineas Festival. The course is in the midst of redevelopment and surely it would have made sense to run the race elsewhere this year with capacity limited to just over 6000. The HRI have stuck to their guns though, and the crowds will have to make do with marquees and mud.

One horse that won’t mind what the weather does this evening is Sahreej, a 4yo son of Zebedee who is trained by local handler Adrian Keatley. This fella loves to get his toe in and I can’t believe his price after a very encouraging run here on bad ground last time. He was staying on strongly at the finish of that 5f contest off a mark of 76 for Gary Carroll and on the evidence of that run the extra furlong tonight should be right up his street.

This horse has yet to win for Adrian Keatley, but he was a heavy ground winner off 83 for Charlie Hills at Newbury as a 2yo. He gets to race off a mark of 74 this evening and crack claimer Danny Sheehy takes off another 7lb so he is effectively racing off 9lb lower than last time when beaten just over 3L. Although the current ground description is yielding there is rain forecast so it could get softer, and at odds of 14/1 I think Sahreej will relish the underfoot conditions and he is a confident each way selection

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 18.45 CURRAGH-SAHREEJ E/W @ 14/1 

Ballinrobe Selections

I found things really tough at Royal Ascot this year and winners were few and far between. Thankfully Idaho got the job done for us in fine style on the last day, and only for falling out of the stalls I think Dragon Mall would have gone very close to giving Josephine Gordon that elusive Royal Ascot winner earlier on in the day. I am heading to Ballinrobe this evening where torrential rain for most of yesterday has softened the ground considerably. Below are my thoughts on a card that should see mud lovers coming to the fore.

 

Gary Halpin could go well on All For Nothing later.

RACE 1

Machine Head is the market leader for this 9.5f race and he was a massive eyecatcher last time at Roscommon (10f soft). He didn’t enjoy the clearest of passages but he stayed on really well to grab 2nd once he did find daylight. Declan McDonagh keeps the ride and hopefully he gets more luck than he did aboard Naughty Or Nice at Ascot!

The worry here for me has to be the slight drop in trip, as he gave the impression last time that a step up in distance would suit. However, this is a race that lacks strength in depth and once it isn’t run at a crawl then Machine Head should be good enough to get the job done for Charles O’Brien, a trainer who has had 3 winners and 7 places from 36 runners at Ballinrobe.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MACHINE HEAD @ 15/8

RACE 2

I tipped up Boom Or Bush the last day at Gowran and he just about managed to grab 4th after being slowly away and failing to take advantage of the plum draw. He is now 7lb lower then when narrowly beaten on handicap debut on soft at Down Royal, and he has to be considered a big danger here, though he hasn’t got the best of draws.

The one I will be backing at a half decent price is Silk King for Andy McNamara and Seamie Heffernan. Seamie gave Idaho a cracking ride to score for us at Ascot and hopefully he continues in the same vein on this 3yo son of Holy Roman Emperor. Silk King ran a lovely race last time to be 4th on bad ground at Gowran (8f hvy), staying on well late in the day. He will love the ground, he should appreciate the step up in trip and at odds of 12/1 he looks a solid each way bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SILK KING E/W @ 12/1

RACE 3

Try Again has been a super horse for connections and has hasn’t finished out of the first two on his last 7 starts. Four of those runs resulted in wins, and he showed he handled soft ground with a cracking effort behind Prove The Point at Leopardstown back in April. He ran well again last time behind Geological at Limerick but he is 6lb higher than for his last win and he has been on the go a long time this season.

At a huge price I think the Ian Madden trained Baby Bellini could run well off a feather weight with decent claimer Sean Davis taking off 4lb. This lightly raced 6yo son of Ivan Denisovich has run a couple of decent races on the flat, none more so than when beaten just over 4L at Leopardstown (10f soft) on his seasonal return off a mark of 64. He is now running off 60 and with Davis’ claim he is 8lb lower than for that encouraging Leopardstown effort. The slight drop back in trip to 9.5f could suit and the cheek pieces return for the first time since Leopardstown. Baby Bellini looks worth chancing each way for small stakes at 28/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BABY BELLINI E/W @ 28/1

 RACE 4

With only 6 going to post this is a race I will be just watching.

RACE 5

Light That and Prince Charmin are bound to be popular in this 13f handicap after encouraging efforts last time out. Light That ran a lovely race on heavy ground at Gowran but he didn’t give the impression that he was crying out for further. Prince Charmin is another danger and connections are hopeful of a good run this evening. They are both short enough at around 2/1 though, and at a bigger price perhaps All For Nothing can give each way backers a run for their money.

Kevin Prendergast’s son of Bushranger has had just six career starts and he has improved steadily since tackling handicaps. He ran a lovely race last time on good ground at Fairyhouse, staying on well for 6th behind Ben Rumson (12f), beaten a never nearer 5L for Gary Halpin. He races off the same mark of 56 here, and the extra furlong should suit. Soft ground is an unknown, but his dam is related to soft ground scorers and his sire Bushranger’s progeny usually handle cut well. At double figure odds he looks worth chancing each way in an open looking race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ALL FOR NOTHING E/W @ 12/1

RACE 6

I really fancied Chocolat Noir to run a big race at Navan (13f gd) last time but she wasn’t given much assistance from the saddle. She could only manage 6th, beaten just over 7.5L but she was never in the right position and I am sure Shane Foley would ride her differently on another day.

Colin Keane takes over in the plate and Murtagh has decided to reach for the cheek pieces. She should be fine on the soft ground judging by her 4L defeat at Leopardstown off 73 on handicap debut and she races off just a pound higher here. The daughter of Yeats looks worth giving another chance to and at odds of 4/1 she is the selection in a race where a case can be made for most.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CHOCOLAT NOIR @ 4/1

RACE 7

At a big price Nevsky could run well for in form duo Jessica Harrington and Colm O’Donoghue. This 4yo is out of a sire that I must admit I know little about, but this gelding has shown definite promise on his last two outings over shorter at Killarney (8f yld) and the Curragh (10f yld).

He looks sure to benefit from the extra couple of furlongs at Ballinrobe and he is a half-brother to a soft ground winner over jumps in France. High Haven and Powersbomb are both sure to be popular with punters, but I think Nevsky could outrun his odds of 20/1 and he is worth backing e/w for small stakes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: NEVSKY E/W @ 20/1

Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips

Day 3 was an unmitigated disaster for us, with not even one of our horses hitting the frame. Nine Below Zero could never land a blow, even after being drawn on the same side as the winner. Tamleek finished well down the field and to add insult to injury his stable mate Benbatl ran out an impressive winner. The saddle slipped on Naughty Or Nice and she trailed in last behind the brilliantly ridden Coronet.

John Gosden could have another good day at Ascot.

I thought Prince Of Arran ran a huge race in the Gold Cup and 2f out it looked as though he might even win before he faded late on. Keyser Soze ran an absolute stinker, while Twin Sail could never recover after getting a bump at the start. The highlight on Day 4 is the Commonwealth Cup and I think Harry Angel looks an absolute good thing. You can read my thoughts on him and on the Queen’s Vase and Albany Stakes by clicking here.

King Edward VII Stakes 

Benbatl franked the form of the Epsom Derby by hosing up yesterday, and perhaps Best Solution can further rubberstamp the form with a big run here. Plenty fancied him to run well at Epsom after a commanding win at Lingfield in the trial but he chased a searing pace set by Douglas McArthur and he simply didn’t get home. I don’t think this race will be run at such a fast pace and that could bring him right into the mix.

His form is amongst the best on offer in this contest and he was far too good for Sir John Lavery at Lingfield. Crystal Ocean stayed on well behind Permian in the Dante and those two are both shorter than Best Solution in the betting. They could still be improving, but I believe that Best Solution will be suited by this smaller field and if he gets his own way up top he could be a tough nut to crack. He is the each way selection at odds of 10/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.05-BEST SOLUTION E/W @ 10/1

Coronation Stakes

With only 7 going to post I won’t be having an interest in this race. The filly they all have to beat is dual Guineas winner Winter and favourite backers will be praying that she doesn’t do a Churchill. On all known form she wins this, but that is reflected in her price of 1/2. Hydrangea beat Winter earlier on this season but that filly has been firmly put in her place on the two occasions they have raced against each other since. The fly in the ointment could be John Gosden’s filly Dabyah, but this is a race I will just watch.

Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap

The last race on Friday is the Duke Of Edinburgh and it looks a typically competitive renewal with 19 horses going to post. The Queen’s horse Mainstream is the current favourite, but he has been frustrating to follow and his mark keeps rising without him actually getting his head in front. The one I like at a decent price is the John Gosden trained Cape Cova who comes here after a fine effort over 14f off a mark of 101 at Newmarket beaten 1.5L in 3rd by Jaameh.

He is a pound higher here off 102, but the drop back in trip to 12f and the first time visor could spark the bit of improvement needed for him to get his head back in front. This 4yo son of Cape Cross has had 4 starts at 12f and they have yielded form figures of 3131. His 3rd to Prize Money on his last start at this trip at Doncaster (gd/fm) reads particularly well now, as that horse went on to score in a Group 2 at Meydan. He will be ridden quietly and produced late by Tom Queally so he will need luck in running, but if he gets the rub of the green he should be there or thereabouts at odds of 16/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 17.35-CAPE COVA E/W @ 16/1 

Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips

We got our first winner of the meeting on the board today with Qemah winning impressively for France. She travelled like the best horse in the race and she held on well in the closing stages. Decorated Knight ran a cracking race to reward each way support in 2nd, chasing home Highland Reel. Nothing went right for Glastonbury Song in the prelims and he ran no sort of race.

Tamleek should be suited by the drop back to 10f.

Bossy Guest wasn’t given the best of rides by De Sousa in the Hunt Cup and I was gutted with that run as I really fancied him. Bean Feasa was drawn on the wrong side, and she looked like she might get involved at one point but she faded disappointingly in the end. Below are my thoughts on what should be another thrilling day of action on Day 3. You can see my selections for the other three races on Day 3 by clicking here. 

Hampton Court Stakes

I tipped up Mirage Dancer ante-post for the Derby and I really think he will be suited by 12f. He skipped Epsom to come here, and I think 10f around here might be a bit sharp for him. The one I like in this is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Tamleek, a horse who was 4th behind Venice Beach and Wings Of Eagles last time at Chester over 12f when he just didn’t seem to get home.

He had previously made a big impression when winning a 10f maiden as he liked at Newmarket, sauntering clear and beating a few next time out winners by 4L. The ground was quick that day and he will love the underfoot conditions at Ascot after a scorching day on Wednesday. His pedigree suggests this will be his optimum trip, as does his form, and at odds of 9/1 I think he looks a rock solid each way bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.05-TAMLEEK E/W @ 9/1 NAP

Gold Cup

The feature race on Day 3 is the Gold Cup, a 20f Group 1 that a horse needs serious stamina to win. Last year’s victor Order Of St George is a warm order to make it two in a row and he comes into the race in great form after a 14f Listed win at Leopardstown last month (gd/fm). He was beaten in a Group 3 by Torcedor at Navan on his seasonal comeback, again over 14f on good but he was likely to have needed that and it is hard to see Torcedor repeating the dose over this trip.

One horse that looks like he is crying out for a crack at this trip is the unexposed Charlie Fellowes horse Prince Of Arran, and it is hard to believe he is as big as 40/1 after a lovely run here behind Sweet Selection last time (16f gd/fm). This 4yo son of Shirocco has stayed on strongly over 2 miles on his last two starts and he looks well worth a shot at 20f. Order Of St George will be tough to beat, but for each way players I think Prince Of Arran could outrun his odds and sneak a place.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 16.20-Prince Of Arran e/w @ 40/1

Britannia Handicap

As the results in the two big field handicaps on the straight course on Wednesday demonstrated it has paid to be drawn high this week. Horses drawn low have struggled to land a blow and for this reason I am going to stick with a horse that is drawn high in the Britannia. Keyser Soze is a horse that has improved massively this season, and his trainer Richard Spencer had a brilliant 2yo win earlier this week.

Keyser Soze first caught my eye on his final two runs of last season in valuable 2yo races at Newmarket and especially Doncaster where he ran huge races to be beaten just over 4L in both contests over 6f, doing all his best work at the finish. He was put away after his Newmarket effort and he won a maiden easily at Thirsk upped to 7f on his first run back of the season. He followed that up with a smooth success on handicap debut at Kempton off 83 and he is now up to a mark of 93. There are milers in his pedigree so the new trip should hold no fears and at odds of 11/1 he is worth backing e/w from a good draw in stall 31.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: KEYSER SOZE E/W @ 11/1 

Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips

Well, we didn’t manage to find a winner on Day 1 but a couple of places with Profitable at 16s and Thunder Snow at 14s ensured it wasn’t a total write off. The undoubted star performer on the day was Lady Aurelia in the King’s Stand, and the filly took full advantage of all the allowances to score impressively.

The biggest flops were Churchill and Declarationofpeace, and Aidan O’Brien will be looking to hit back on Day 2. American Patriot ran no sort of race for us, but I thought the Ivan Furtado filly in the last showed a bit of promise and she will be of interest when upped in trip. I have already posted tips for three races which you can read by clicking here, and you can read my thoughts on the remaining races below.

Jim Bolger looks to have a good chance with Bean Feasa.

Queen Mary Stakes

As we saw with Lady Aurelia in the King’s Stand Wesley Ward knows how to train a sprinter and she won this race last season, Ward’s second Queen Mary win in a row. He has been waxing lyrical about his filly in this year’s renewal too, and Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride on 5/4 favourite Happy Like A Fool. This daughter of Distorted Humour hacked up over 4.5f on debut at Keeneland and she is difficult to oppose.

However, one that could give her a run for her money is the William Jarvis trained debut course and distance winner Mrs Gallagher. This Oasis Dream filly showed a good attitude to score on her first outing and the race has produced winners. The ground was quick too, so conditions hold no fears for her on Wednesday. Silvestre De Sousa has been booked and I think she is worth chancing each way at odds of 16/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.05-MRS GALLAGHER E/W @ 16/1

Prince Of Wales’s Stakes

Only 8 go to post in this high quality 10f Group 1 and Highland Reel is the current market leader at odds of 11/4. However, a case can be made for quite a few in this field and even the 40/1 rag Johannes Vermeer has won a Group 1 in the past. The one I like at a half decent price is the Roger Charlton trained colt Decorated Knight who comes here after an impressive win at the Curragh 10.5f yld).

This 5yo son of Galileo has improved markedly since moving from Roger Varian to Charlton and from an opening official rating of 85 he has improved over 30lbs and is now rated 118. That lofty rating is justified too, as he has won 4 of his last 5 starts including two at Group 1 level. He still has a bit to find with Jack Hobbs and Highland Reel, but I think he could well improve again and at odds of 8/1 he is the each way selection in a cracker of a race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 16.20-DECORATED KNIGHT E/W @ 8/1

Sandringham Handicap

This listed contest is for 3yo fillies only and 24 go to post in a wide open looking renewal. Master trainer Jim Bolger has decided to go down the handicap route with his Group 3 winning filly Bean Feasa, and we think that may well prove to be a wise decision. This filly was badly hampered in the Irish 1000 Guineas behind Winter and the fact that Bolger ran her in that race suggests that he thinks a lot of this daughter of Dubawi.

Her previous run when slamming Asking by over 2L at Leopardstown (8f gd/fm) in a Group 3 would put her right in the mix here, and I think the handicapper has given her a real chance off a mark of 102. That was her only run so far on proper good to firm ground, and she will relish conditions at Ascot tomorrow. It took her a while to get going at Leopardstown and I think a fast run race at Ascot could bring out the best in her. She can be backed at odds of 22/1 and she looks well worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BEAN FEASA E/W @ 22/1

Royal Ascot Day 1 Tips

The most important flat meeting of the season starts on Tuesday and it promises to be a cracking week of racing. With Group races galore over a variety of trips there is something for everyone, and there are a couple of high class handicaps thrown in for good measure too. A dry spell means that the ground will be quick so there will be no excuses on that front. Below are my thoughts on Day 1, with plenty of tasty prices to get stuck into. 

Ivan Furtado has a talented filly in the finale.

Race 1

I am usually reluctant to tip up odds on favourites for any race, but sometimes the most obvious answer is the correct one. Ribchester looks rock solid in this Group 1 contest, but the bookies haven’t missed him and he is a best price of around 5/6 with a couple of firms. He is the first leg of a shorty accumulator that the bookies flagged up last week, and he should get his backers off to a flying start. However, the only worry would be the quick ground as he was beaten his only start on good to firm at Goodwood.

For this reason, I think it is prudent to have an each way interest in something at a bigger price, and American Patriot fits the bill. American raider Tepin took this contest last season, and Todd Pletcher will be looking to repeat the dose with American Patriot. He comes here after an impressive Grade 1 victory at Keeneland last time out (8f gd/fm), his first win at the highest level. This son of War Front will love the ground at Ascot, he is unbeaten over a mile and the booking of Frankie Dettori catches the eye. American Patriot could run big and he is the each way suggestion at odds of 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: AMERICAN PATRIOT E/W @ 25/1

Race 2

I have covered this race for Mybettingbonus.co.uk and you can find out my fancy by clicking here.

Race 3

Some of the quickest horses on the planet will line up in the King’s Stand and it will be run at a furious pace. Last year’s spectacular Queen Mary winner Lady Aurelia is the market leader, and she will be bidding to become the first filly to triumph in this race since it was upgraded to Group 1 level. 3yos don’t have a great record in the race either, and I think Wesley Ward’s filly could be worth taking on with something at a bigger price.

I think last year’s winner Profitable looks a shade overpriced at 16/1 for Clive Cox and Godolphin. The ground was soft last season for his victory in this, but this fella has won on good to firm and he ran a blinder on quick ground behind some crack sprinters over 6f at Newmarket last season. He was beaten by Signs Of Blessing on his seasonal comeback but on quicker ground he could reverse that form. 5f is his trip, he is proven over c&d and he has likely been trained with this race in mind. At odds of 16/1 he represents each way value in an open looking renewal.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: PROFITABLE E/W @ 16/1

Race 4

I have tipped one up for this for Mybettingbonus.co.uk and you can check out what I fancy by clicking here.

Race 5

This is another race I have covered for Mybettingbonus and you can check out my selection here.

Race 6

The final race of the day sees a maximum field of 24 runners going to post and finding the winner is far from an easy task. Declarationofpeace is just shading favouritism at 4/1 after an impressive win at Dundalk last time. This race is a different kettle of fish though, and at much bigger odds I reckon that Marchingontogether is well worth an each way bet for Ivan Furtado and Martin Harley. This daughter of Havana Gold made a big impression on me when winning her maiden at Leicester (5f gd/fm).

She was sent off an unconsidered 14/1 shot, but she won in the manner of a very smart filly and the 3rd and 4th home in that race have won since. The runner up is also highly rated by Michael Bell, so to win going away by over 2L was some feat. She was pushed along early in that 5f contest but she wasn’t stopping at the finish so 6f should suit her well in time. Qatar Bloodstock bought her immediately after that impressive win, and she could prove to be a shrewd purchase. At odds of 25/1 she is the each way selection in a race that has produced plenty of surprises down through the years.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MARCHINGONTOGETHER E/W @ 25/1

Soph Could Surprise At Musselburgh

Bequia drifted like a barge before racing on Friday and, unfortunately, he ran accordingly. He raced close to the pace but when it lifted inside the final furlong he couldn’t go with the leaders. He did have a pretty rough race, and his jockey wasn’t overly hard on him once his chance had gone. Perhaps he will be better under more patient tactics and he isn’t one to write off yet.

Lil Sophella loves it at Musselburgh.

Today I like the look of one at a huge price at Musselburgh, and I think Lil Sophella could bounce back to form returned to quick ground at a track she likes. Patrick Holmes’ 8yo mare has been a grand servant to connections over the years, winning 6 of her 54 starts and placing on a further 20 occasions. She has been below par on both outings this season, but 7f on soft was never likely to suit the daughter of Indian Haven.

The handicapper has dropped her a couple of pounds in the weights for those two efforts and she gets to race off a mark of 76 today. That is 2lb below her last winning rating and if she is fully revved up for today’s race she is handicapped to run a big one. She was beaten just a length off 83 as recently as November at Newcastle, so if she can get anywhere near that level she has to go close.

She will be ridden by Neil Farley and he knows this mare inside out. He has ridden her on 8 occasions in the past and his form figures on her read 02731124. Another reason for optimism is Lil Sophella’s record over today’s course and distance. She has had six starts at Musselburgh and she has only finished out of the money once. She won here off 76 back in September 2015 and she was 3rd off 81 in this very race last season.

Her trainer Pat Holmes does well with limited ammunition and he has his string in tremendous shape right now, firing in 2 winners and a 2nd from his last 5 runners. I think Lil Sophella may have been trained with this race in mind, and those two runs on soft should have left her cherry ripe for today. She loves the track, she is well handicapped and trip and ground will suit. I think she looks a massive price at 33/1 and she could well sneak a place.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.35 MUSSELBURGH-LIL SOPHELLA E/W @ 33/1

Meade Could Strike At Sandown

Raven’s Lady ran a cracking race at Kempton, ridden with more restraint than usual but keeping on well and winning the battle for 3rd. There should be more to come from Marco Botti’s filly on the all weather and it will be interesting to see if she can eventually show a bit more on turf.

Martyn Meade is a shrewd operator.

Tomorrow I like the look of one at a nice price at Sandown, and I think Bequia could bounce back from a disappointing seasonal comeback upped in trip to 7f on handicap debut. This 3yo son of Helmet showed plenty on his debut in a 6f maiden at Newmarket last summer (gd/fm), staying on strongly for 2nd and shaping as though further would suit.

He didn’t produce his best next time kept to 6f at Yarmouth on his next start, finishing well beaten but the easy ground may have been to blame. It was surprising to see him dropped to 5f on his reappearance at Yarmouth (gd/fm) and he was tapped for toe over the minimum trip, staying on late in the day to finish 3rd.

He has been handed a mark of 75 for his handicap debut and Meade has booked a 7lb claimer to ease the burden. Joshua Bryan’s allowance could turn out to be crucial, and he has a win and a 4th from two rides for the yard. Trip and ground look sure to suit, and at odds of 16/1 Bequia looks well worth supporting each way in a wide open race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.10 SANDOWN-BEQUIA E/W @ 16/1

Lady Looks Overpriced At Kempton

Total Demolition demolished his chances at the start at the Curragh on Sunday, standing still as the gates opened and losing many lengths on his rivals. He was only beaten a length or so for a place, and I remain convinced he has the ability to win a handicap off his current mark, he just needs to get out of the stalls a bit quicker.

Botti thinks a lot of Raven's Lady

Tomorrow a filly at Kempton has caught my eye, and I think Raven’s Lady could go off a lot shorter than her current odds of 16/1. This 3yo daughter of Raven’s Pass comes here after a luckless run on the turf at Ascot last month off 86 (8f gd/fm) and she would have finished a lot closer than 5th, beaten just over 5L, only for being hampered more than once inside the final couple of furlongs.

Whether she would have won or not is debateable, as her effort did peter out once she did find daylight. I think it makes sense to drop her back to 7f, and the return to the all weather at Kempton has to count as another positive. She has yet to finish outside the top 2 in three runs at the track, and on the form of her maiden win there last September she has to have an excellent chance on Wednesday off a mark of 85.

Raven’s Lady seems to relish it around Kempton and she is definitely a better filly on the all weather than on turf. She has had three runs at Kempton, and a repeat of her seasonal reappearance in a class 2 3yo conditions stakes here (8f) would probably be enough for her to score here off her mark of 85. George Wood, a talented young claimer, takes off a further 5lb and he has been banging in the winners in recent weeks.

He has a stellar record when riding for Marco Botti, and he rode a nice winner for Don Cantillon at Windsor on Monday night. Cantillon’s money was down on Hollywood Road, and it demonstrates that he trusted Wood’s ability in the saddle. Wood has had 22 rides in total for Botti, winning on 4 and achieving top 4 finishes on another 6. Marco Botti and his team have always thought this filly was a pattern level performer, so hopefully she proves him right at Kempton. Odds of 16/1 look too big, and she looks well worth chancing each way on Wednesday night.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 20.10 KEMPTON-RAVEN’S LADY E/W @ 16/1

Don’t Discount A Demolition Job At The Curragh

Sir Ector ran a lovely race earlier for us, drifting out to 33s (150s on the machine) but belying his odds and running a lovely race, finishing 3rd and rewarding each way support. It was a massive upturn in form for the 10yo, and I reckon he has one more race in him. He seems to love Down Royal, so watch out for him if he turns up there.

Conor Hoban gets on well with Total Demolition

On Sunday I like the look of one at a big price at the Curragh, and I think Total Demolition is capable of outrunning his generous odds for Jimmy Larkin and Conor Hoban. This enigmatic son of Thewayyouare is an all or nothing character, but he showed definite signs of returning to form at Gowran last time out and he looks worth supporting each way here for small stakes at huge odds.

He was very slowly away at Gowran on his last outing (8f sft), as is often the case with this fella, and as they turned for home he was a lot nearer last than first. However, when Hoban asked him for an effort he started to make ground up quickly before he was badly hampered just over 2f out. Hoban had to stop riding for a few strides, and when he switched Total Demolition he was staying on again before getting squeezed up inside the final furlong.

Hoban let him come home in his own time after that mishap, and considering how troubled a passage he endured he did well to finish just over 7L behind the winner. With a clearer run he would have undoubtedly finished a lot closer and it was an encouraging effort. He races off the same mark of 78 tomorrow, and though he is 9lb above his last winning mark he was beaten less than 2L off this rating when runner up at Fairyhouse last September (12f sft/hvy).

He has won on ground ranging from good to firm to heavy, so he won’t mind if the ground dries out a bit. It is currently described as soft at the Curragh, and with a few showers forecast it is unlikely to change too much. His last three wins have come at around a mile, but his only start at tomorrow’s trip of 10f resulted in victory and he showed at Fairyhouse last year over 12f that stamina won’t be an issue.

Conor Hoban knows this horse inside out, and he was on board last time at Gowran. He has ridden Total Demolition seven times, winning once and finishing runner up twice. He clearly gets on well with this quirky customer, and hopefully he can get a good tune out of him tomorrow. If Total Demolition can get away reasonably well and gets a bit of luck in running he is not handicapped out of this, and at odds of 25/1 he looks well worth chancing each way in a wide open race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 17.00 CURRAGH-TOTAL DEMOLITION E/W @ 25/1

Sir Worth One More Chance At The Curragh

Joaldo ran a good race for us earlier this week, but unfortunately it wasn't good enough to reward each way support. Antony Brittain's charge was outpaced down the back and it took him a long time to find his stride. When he did, he stayed on strongly down the home straight, just failing to get up for 4th by a measly head. It was a frustrating result and perhaps he will be suited by stepping up slightly in trip next time out. 

 

Wayne Lordan does well when riding for Nicole McKenna.

Today I am going to chance one at a big price at the Curragh where the ground is going to be very testing. Sir Ector is a horse that hasn't won for a long time, but I think that it is telling that connections are persisting with the 10yo son of Dynaformer. He was well beaten on his return to the flat at Cork over an inadequate trip of 10f last time out (gd/yld), but he should be much better suited by the return to further and the softer ground at the Curragh this afternoon.

This fella was a very useful handicapper a couple of years back, and he defeated none other than Quick Jack at Leopardstown the last time he won (14f soft) off a mark of 100. That victory in November 2013 seems like an age ago now, and he has since left Jimmy Lambe and he is now trained by Nicole McKenna. He has looked badly out of sorts since moving yards, but he is starting to look well handicapped and McKenna’s horses are flying.

She has had two runners in the past fortnight, with Rattling Jewel winning here at 14/1 and Modern Tutor running a cracker to be placed at Carlisle yesterday. She has booked Wayne Lordan for the ride, and he has a good record when riding for the stable. He has a win and 7 top 4 finishes from just 20 rides for the yard, a frame hitting strike rate of 40%. Stakes should be kept small with this one, as this horse may well be just on the downgrade. However, he must be showing something at home to convince connections to persist, and at odds of 25/1 I can’t resist having a tiny each way bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 16.45 CURRAGH-SIR ECTOR E/W @ 25/1 

Joaldo A Lively Outsider At Wolves

I am not usually one to criticise jockeys as I have massive respect for the danger they put themselves in every time they get on a horse. However, Dusty Foley didn’t cover himself in glory on Chocolat Noir for us at the weekend at Navan and I believe the horse could have finished a lot closer if given a better ride. He got caught on the inner and he just couldn’t angle the horse out in the final couple of furlongs. Chocolat Noir didn’t have a hard race and he is a winner in waiting off his current mark.

Cam Hardie has a decent record when riding for Brittain.

Tomorrow I like the look of an 18/1 shot for each way purposes at Wolverhampton, and I think 6f could ultimately prove to be the optimum trip for Joaldo at this point in time. Antony Brittain’s 5yo son of Monsieur Bond is a very lightly raced horse for his age, but he has shown definite signs of ability around here and his last two runs of last season suggested to me that he is more than capable of winning a low grade handicap.

He first caught my eye on his handicap debut here over 5f last March when sent off at 10/1 off a basement mark of 45. He was slowly away and Paddy McDonald had to drop him in and then switch him wide as they turned for home. The horse still looked green and was looking around a bit when he came under pressure, and just as he was mounting his challenge he met trouble and had to switch even wider. When McDonald did give him the office the response was good and he ended up a fast finishing 5th beaten just over 2L, shaping as if further would suit.

He was stepped up to 7f on his next start, again at Wolves, and this time he was again slowly away. This time as they turned for home McDonald tried to go up the inner, and once again there was no room at the inn. He switched him towards the outside and Joaldo kept on pretty well in the final furlong between horses for 5th, this time beaten just over 3L. He didn’t finish as strongly as he had over 5F, and that leads me to believe 6f should be perfect for him.

He made a pleasing enough return to action at Southwell back in April, slowly away over 8f and making up ground late on to finish 5th off 45. He is likely to strip a lot fitter with that run under his belt and better can be expected now he is dropped to 6f and returned to Wolverhampton. His trainer Antony Brittain has his string in good order, and though he hasn’t had a winner since the 20th of May the form figures for his recent runners read 43233376234.

Cam Hardie retains the ride having been on board last time, and he has a good record when riding for Brittain. He has had 57 rides for the yard and they have yielded two winners and 21 top 4 finishes. Another reason for optimism is the fitting of first time cheek-pieces, as this should sharpen up Joaldo’s concentration and keep his mind on the job at hand. He is a pound out of the handicap, but that isn’t a big worry as this looks a desperately weak contest. He will be dropped in from his wide draw, and if he gets more luck in running he could go very close at odds of 18/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.50 WOLVERHAMPTON-JOALDO E/W @ 18/1

Get Into The Black With Chocolat At Navan

Likewise had very little luck for us earlier this week at Fairyhouse, badly hampered on the inside when still travelling well and losing all chance of hitting the frame. It is interesting that Adrian Murray turns her out again quickly at Navan tomorrow, and she wouldn’t be without a chance if those exertions haven’t left a mark. She was allowed to come home in her own time and didn’t have a hard race at Fairyhouse, so a big run would come as no surprise.

Johnny Murtagh's horses are running well.

However, though I was very tempted to put her up again (I will definitely be having a small e/w bet at 20s) I have decided to plump for another one in the 13f handicap at 15.00 instead. Chocolat Noir ran a cracker here over course and distance (gd) off a mark of 73 back in April on just her second handicap start, after running a lovely race at Leopardstown on her handicap debut off the same mark (10f soft).

Murtagh decided to have another crack at a maiden down in Roscommon last time (12f gd) and she found just one too good in the shape of Zamira. There was no disgrace in that reversal though, as the winner went on to score on her handicap debut at Tipperary next time out off 78. She was 2.5L too good for Chocolat Noir that day, so on a literal reading of that form she must have a good chance off her revised rating of 74.

The form of her 3rd placed finish here on her penultimate start has also been boosted since. She was only a length behind the winner Pirolo that day and she was conceding a whopping 19lb to the Bolger horse who won off a mark of 54. He scored again on his next turf start at Fairyhouse off 4lb higher, so the form looks solid in the context of Saturday’s race.

Johnny Murtagh has his string in fine fettle at the moment, and his form figures for his last 8 runners read 27732333. He has been knocking on the door in recent weeks, and it should be sooner rather than later that he gets back into the winner’s enclosure. Dusty Foley takes over in the saddle, and he will be eager to get his first winner on the board for Murtagh. Trip, ground and draw all look ideal for this 4yo daughter of Yeats, and at odds of 16/1 Chocolat Noir is well worth backing each way.

STEVOS SELECTION: 15.00 NAVAN-CHOCOLAT NOIR E/W @ 16/1