Baz Worth Backing Down In Trip At Cork

Tsarina Sophia was actually jumping much better than she had previously at Fairyhouse earlier this week, but she dived at the 6th and her race was over. Thankfully horse and jockey both got up straight away, and while I think Tsarina Sophia is a horse with definite ability she will need to jump better if she is ever going to get her head in front.

Ricky Doyle is riding with confidence at the moment.

I tipped up a horse called Shimmer and Shine recently in a 20f handicap hurdle at Cork and today’s selection caught my eye in that race. Bazarov had shown one or two glimmers of ability over hurdles last season, and indeed his best run came when 6th of 14 here in a maiden over 16f on heavy back in January.

He ran another relatively decent race over 16f at Thurles on heavy when 5th of 16, but he was beaten nearly 40L and his next four runs, including his handicap debut at Wexford, were awful. He ran here earlier this month in the 20f race Shimmer and Shine finished 4th in, ridden under exaggerated waiting tactics in first time cheekpieces to finish 5th, only 1L or so behind Shimmer and Shine.

Bazarov came from an awfully long way back, and I think dropping back to 2 miles could suit if he is ridden a bit more aggressively. It was good to yielding the last day so he won’t mind if the ground dries out a bit, but I think the yielding to soft ground at Cork on Sunday will be fine. The cheekpieces are retained, Ricky Doyle looks a good booking and off a mark of 84 I think Bazarov could go well for John Clifford at odds of 33/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 1.20 CORK-BAZAROV E/W @ 33/1

Sophia Could Star With Hood Removed At Fairyhouse

Boris Boru was in the process of running a big race for us at Navan and he was bang in contention when taking a heavy fall at the fourth last. Olive D’haguenet was alongside him at the time and ended up in 2nd with very few of the hold up horses getting involved. It is impossible to know for sure, but I think Boris Boru would have placed at least if he had stayed on his feet. He is one to watch out for at Down Royal or Downpatrick this Winter.
 

Jack Kennedy is back on board Tsarina Sophia.

There still hasn’t been enough rain in these parts to change the underfoot conditions and the ground looks likely be good at Fairyhouse on Wednesday, though there is some rain forecast. I like one at a huge price in the closing 20f handicap at 3.35 and I reckon Tsarina Sophia could surprise with a big run with Jack Kennedy booked and the hood removed for the first time.

This 6yo daughter of Soviet Star has yet to trouble the judge after seven starts under rules, but she definitely showed a modicum of ability on two of her last three starts for Diarmuid Ryan. Interestingly, her best effort came on the only occasion she was ridden by Jack Kennedy at Tramore and she shaped well enough to finish 7th of 13, her effort petering out in the final furlong.

Kennedy was struggling to hold her up at the back of the field in the early stages and she looked keen to get on with things. He was determined to keep her out the back though, and as they came to the third last hurdle she wasn’t far off the leaders at all. Her early exertions took their toll late on, and while she was 23L behind the winner at the finish, it was a much better run than it looked.

The same applies to her penultimate start at Wexford when Darragh O’Keefe was on board for her handicap debut. She was dropped back to 2 miles and finished 8th beaten 20L off her opening mark of 85, but again she ran better than her finishing position and distance beaten suggests. It looked to me like she wasn’t in love with the hood, and it was the same story at Clonmel last time when she almost refused to race before being brought down early.

This mare is bred to be a whole lot better than her current rating of just 83. She has had four siblings make the track and three have won, including Joanne One who was a Listed bumper and dual hurdle winner that achieved an official rating of 123. Her half bother Kylestyle was a useful performer on his day and her dam is a half-sister to Snap Tie and also a half-sister to the dam of promising sorts Spider Web and Runfordave.

I think the removal of the hood for the first time could help to improve Tsarina Sophia’s jumping and the return of Jack Kennedy to the saddle looks significant. Good or yielding ground should be just fine for this mare, as should the trip, and if her mishap last time at Clonmel (no fault of her own) hasn’t knocked her confidence I think Tsarina Sophia is worth chancing for small stakes each way at odds of 33/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.35 FAIRYHOUSE- TSARINA SOPHIA E/W @ 33/1 5 PLACES

Boris Could Go Well At A Huge Price Back At Navan

Unfortunately, Doncaster got lots of rain before racing yesterday and the ground turned against my selection Sokudo. He was never happy on the soft ground and he faded in the closing stages after racing prominently. I think he will be much better on a sounder surface and once he gets a mark he is one to keep an eye out for in handicaps.

 

Boris Boru could run big for Sarah Dawson.

Today I am taking a chance on one at a monster price at Navan and I think Boris Boru could outrun his huge odds for Sarah Dawson and Conor Maxwell. This 7yo son of Brian Boru has returned from a lay-off with two runs this season, and he showed that he still had a bit of ability when running a nice race from the front over 3 miles last time.

He faded late on that day and shaped as though a drop in trip would suit. He gets that in this 22f handicap hurdle and encouragingly, he has run well over this course and distance before when 5th off 86, beaten just over 3L on yielding/soft ground. He won’t mind the good ground at Navan today either as his best run so far came when he was 2nd on good ground at Down Royal over 22f.

He races from 5lb out of the handicap today (rated 81 runs off 86) but as he has shown in the past he is well capable of getting involved off 86. He should be a lot fitter with his two comeback runs behind him and he went well for a long way last time. If he is trying today I think he could run a big race and at odds of 40/1 I think Boris Boru is well worth chancing each way for small stakes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 12.35 NAVAN- BORIS BORU E/W @ 40/1 5 PLACES

Sokudo Could Spring A Surprise At Doncaster

Nakeeta may well have finished well beaten in the Melbourne Cup, but turning in I thought he had a massive chance and at least he got our pulses racing for a few moments! He travelled very well into the race from a much better position than last year but he just couldn’t sustain his effort.
 

Madeleine Tylicki has just one runner at Doncaster.

On Saturday the last main UK flat meeting of the year takes place at Doncaster and the ground is good. Very interestingly, Kildare based trainer Madeleine Tylicki sends Sokudo over for the 6f 2yo maiden at 12.20 and I think he could surprise with a big run at monster odds. This colt has run better than his form figures of 09 suggest on his two starts so far and he improved big time on his second outing at Naas.

He was clueless for Colin Keane at Cork on his debut in what has turned out to be a decent maiden, but he was given a good educational ride by Keane. Sokudo was slow from the gates and was detached 2nd last early on. When Keane went for him at around the 3f pole he was green as grass, but he did keep on to pass a couple of horses in the closing stages under hands and heels.

He ran again at Naas six days ago (6.5f yld), this time sporting blinkers with Leigh Roche on board. He was much more professional, breaking a lot better and though he faded late on, he showed up well for a long way and I think the return to better ground will suit this nicely bred son of  Bungle Inthejungle.

His Distorted Humour dam is a half sister to Outstrip, a son of Exceed And Excel who was a 2yo Breeders’ Cup Turf winner on firm as well as a winner of the Champagne Stakes here at Doncaster. Bungle Inthejungle is also a son of Exceed and Excel, so Sokudo is bred along very similar lines to Outstrip.

If his pedigree is anything to go by this fella will be at his best on good ground or quicker and with no rain forecast, he should get his ideal conditions at Doncaster. Tony Hamilton has been booked, the blinkers are removed and Sokudo has been handed a decent draw in stall 6. At odds of 66/1 I think he is well worth chancing each way for small stakes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 12.20 DONCASTER-SOKUDO E/W @ 66/1

Nakeeta The Each Way Value In Melbourne Cup

I was very happy with how Shimmer And Shine ran yesterday at Cork but I think the slow ground was against her. She kept on really bravely to hold off the chasing pack in 4th because after the 3rd last I was convinced she would be swallowed up. She has a win in her and she is one to keep onside when the ground is properly good.

The race that stops a nation is run at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne at 4am Tuesday morning UK and Irish time. I really liked Red Verdon for this contest but unfortunately he picked up a knock and can’t run. Instead, I am keeping the faith with the horse I tipped up last year as I cannot believe he can be backed at triple figure odds in some places.

Nakeeta ran a huge race from a poor draw last year.

Nakeeta ran a cracker off the same weight to fly home for 5th from stall 19 in the 2017 Melbourne Cup but this year he has been handed a far better draw in stall 3. He is available at odds of 100/1 with a couple of firms at the moment but I have backed him at 66/1 for 6 places each way.

The only reason this son of Sixties Icon is such a massive price is because his last couple of runs have been far from inspiring. However, the trip of 12f was never going to suit him for his prep run and his jockey was very easy on him once his chance was gone. He was in the process of running well on his last UK start too but he was hampered at a crucial time.

His sole run on turf at 2 miles this season was his best one and it came when he finished well off a strong pace at Newbury back in July. He was only beaten 3.75L by Stratum, to whom he was conceding 9lb, off a mark of 106.  He had Cleonte in behind (conceding a stone) and that horse went on to win next time and go close in the Cesarewitch.

I think Nakeeta has been trained all year for a repeat bid in the Melbourne Cup and his trainer Iain Jardine is well capable of readying one. The step back up in trip will suit, he handles the track, he has a great draw in stall 3 and his young jockey, Melbourne Cup debutant Regan Bayliss, knows the track well. I think 66/1 for 6 places about Nakeeta is a monster price, and he is a pretty confident each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MELBOURNE CUP-NAKEETA E/W @ 66/1 6 PLACES

Shimmer Can Shine Back On Better Ground At Cork

The jumps action in Ireland comes from Cork today and the Cork National is the feature race on a good card. I think Nobody Home represents a bit of each way value in that race, but my main fancy goes in the 20f handicap hurdle later on in the day at 3.50.
 

Nobody Home could go well at a price in the Cork National.

Shimmer And Shine went into my notebook when she was a massive eye catcher at a monster price in a 20f good ground maiden hurdle at Roscommon earlier this season for Peter Croke and Dylan Robinson, finishing 4th behind Gaillimh Abu despite being given an extremely tender ride.

I was shocked to see her dropped back in trip on her handicap debut at Clonmel (16.5f) after her run at Roscommon and I wasn't surprised that it proved too sharp for her. She was far from disgraced though, beaten 3.5L, and judging by the money that arrived for the daughter of Gold Well last time at Downpatrick, connections must have expected the step up to 22.5f to suit.

She was sent off at just 6/1 but the rain before the race scuppered her chance as she simply isn’t at her best on truly soft ground. It is good to yielding at Cork this afternoon and that will suit her a lot better. She had a 114 rated hurdler half a length behind on her last start at 20f so off a mark of 95 I think she is capable of getting involved at the business end. At odds of 25/1 she is well worth chancing e/w with an extra place available from plenty of bookies.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.50 CORK-SHIMMER AND SHINE E/W @ 25/1

Breeders’ Cup Friday- Previews And Tips For All Turf Races

Queen Of Bermuda will love the ground at Churchill Downs.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Listed)

When I first sat down to study this race the ground was firm, but a deluge means conditions will be soft at the very least come Friday night. I fancied Strike Silver in a big way before the rain came as I think this race will be run to suit his fast finishing style. The ground is a complete unknown for him though, and for that reason I have decided to side with Queen Of Bermuda.

Unlike a lot of her rivals this daughter of Exceed And Excel is proven on soft/heavy and a wide draw shouldn’t hinder the chances of this hold up type. Her form figures on ground with soft or heavy in the description read 2121, with the two wins coming at Listed and Group 3 level. She only has a length to find with Soldier’s Call on their meeting at Deauville and at odds of 14/1 she looks the each way value of the race for Mr Haggas and Flavian Prat.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: QUEEN OF BERMUDA E/W @ 14/1 NB

Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)

The first Group 1 on Breeders’ Cup weekend is the Juvenile Fillies Turf and fourteen will go to post for this 8f contest. Unbeaten daughter of Lope De Vega, Newspaperofrecord is the 13/8 favourite and given both her wins came on yielding ground this special looking filly is a worthy favourite. Her two wins were by over 6L, including in a Group 2 last time at Belmont where she made all and never looked in danger for Irad Ortiz Jr.
 

My Gal Betty hosed up on yielding ground at Woodbine.

The one that I think looks overpriced is My Gal Betty for Roger Attfield and Javier Castellano. This filly hacked up on her only start on easy ground so far and she ran a cracker on firm behind La Pelosa at Woodbine last time. Her sire won two Group 1s on easy ground, she is bred to get a mile at the very least and if she gets a strong pace to aim at I think she could stay on late for a place at least at odds of 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MY GAL BETTY E/W @ 25/1 NAP

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)

There is plenty of British and Irish interest in the 8f Juvenile Turf race and the two market leaders are Anthony Van Dyck for Aidan O’Brien and Line of Duty for Charlie Appleby. Both have winning form on softish ground but the draw has been a lot kinder to the Godolphin horse. He starts from stall 5 while Anthony Van Dyck is out in stall 14, so at the prices I would prefer Line Of Duty at 7/2.
 

Black Album could go well for Mickael Barzalona.

However, at a nice each way price I think The Black Album could go well up in trip. This son of Wootton Bassett has won three of his last four, including a Group 3 on good to soft last time. The 4th home that day won a Group 1 next time so the form looks strong and if Mickael Barzalona can get across early from stall 9 I think this fella could go well for each way players at odds of 16/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: THE BLACK ALBUM E/W @ 16/1