Hill Has Form To Figure In Dovecote

After Honest Vic placed at 33s on Saturday, and with Coole Cody and Ivanovich Gorbatov both placing at 50/1 the previous week, we finally got the break we deserved at Navan on Sunday. Dragon Houdini was backed all the way into 10/1 from 50s, and bar a hairy jump at the last the result was never in doubt. She can progress upped further in trip and Shane Crawley should have plenty of fun with her.

 

Brecon Hill's form looks solid. 

I have put up an old friend of the blog for the Eider Chase at Newcastle for TXODDS and you can check it out by clicking here. The Dovecote Hurdle is one of the big races of the day at Kempton and I like one each way at a massive price. Sarah Humphrey is far from a household name, and the majority of racing fans probably have never heard of her. Toby Jug is probably the best she has trained, but Brecon Hill could turn out to be the horse that puts her on the map.

This son of Arcano has improved rapidly on his last three hurdle starts, and his second behind Brewinupastorm is one of the best pieces of form in the race. He was only 4L behind him when runner up at Huntingdon (16f gd/sft) on ground soft enough for him, and his conqueror was beaten just 4L by Champ in a Grade 1 next time and fell at the last when leading in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham on his last start.

Brecon Hill proved that effort was no fluke when winning decisively at Leicester over 15.5f on his next outing. I liked how he stuck on under pressure, and he pinged the last in the manner of a good horse. I thought he showed a nice enough turn of foot too after jumping the final hurdle and it was overall a very impressive performance.

Connections have wasted no time in stepping him up in grade, and this is undoubtedly a tough race. However, if this horse was trained by one of the bigger yards, there is no way he would be as big as 40/1. Going right handed suits this fella, as do flat tracks, so he has plenty in his favour. The booking of Daryl Jacob suggests that connections mean business and at monster odds Brecon Hill is worth chancing each way for small stakes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.00 KEMPTON – BRECON HILL E/W @ 40/1

Dragon Could Fire Now Upped In Trip At Navan

To say I was gutted after Honest Vic was beaten earlier is an understatement. The visor worked a treat, and as he jumped the last I was sure he was going to win. In my mind, there is no doubt he was interfered with on the run in and given that he was only beaten a head, I was shocked the places weren’t reversed. Still, we got our each way money at odds of 33/1 and I am reinvesting some of those winnings (wisely!) on a 50/1 poke at Navan on Sunday.

Shane Crawley and Donagh Meyler with Sassy Diva at Leopardstown.

Shane Crawley is a young trainer fast building a reputation for himself. He had a big handicap winner at the Dublin Racing Festival with Sassy Diva, and there is little doubt he is well able to train. He has had seven different horses run in Ireland this season, and four of them have won. Every single one of them has earned some prize money too, including my selection Dragon Houdini.

This daughter of Yeats, a top class sire, has shown bits and pieces of promise in her first four starts over hurdles. She has shaped as though 16f was too sharp for her in all her maiden hurdle runs, including when 4th in a maiden here at Navan (16f gd). Her handicap debut wasn’t a great effort at Fairyhouse last time, but that was again over 2 miles and today’s new 20f distance could really suit.

It isn’t just her run style that has suggested she wants further, her pedigree is all about staying power too. Her sire is an obvious stamina influence, while her half siblings Steps and Stairs and The Birdie Crowe have won seven races between them at up to 3 miles. Her dam is a half sister to 20f/24f winner Badgerlaw, so it all points towards Dragon Houdini needing a step up in distance to show her best.

Donagh Meyler has been on board for all of her runs so far and he rode Sassy Diva to victory for Crawley at Leopardstown. Dragon Houdini has already shown a glimmer of ability at Navan, while the forecast good ground shouldn’t inconvenience her either. This looks a pretty weak race, and off a mark of just 94 Dragon Houdini is worth a small each way interest at odds of 50/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 4.30 NAVAN – DRAGON HOUDINI E/W @ 50/1

Visor Could Do The Trick For Vic At Ascot

It has been a while since my last blog post, so hopefully my selection for Saturday is worth the wait. The one I like goes at Ascot in the handicap hurdle at 1pm and in a first time visor, Honest Vic looks  a massive price. Henry Daly’s son of Kalanisi has been sent off favourite on his last two starts and has failed to deliver. However, neither run was devoid of promise and if the first time visor has the effect that is hoped, he could outrun his odds of 33/1.

Richard Patrick winning on Happy Diva at Ascot.

This 6yo is still lightly raced over hurdles and he has had just 10 runs during his career so far (2 in bumpers). He got off the mark over timber on his second try when hacking up in a 16f good ground Novice at Stratford in November 2017. He was beaten under a penalty next time in another Novice Hurdle at Ludlow, but he was a lot better next time on his handicap debut in a class 2 heat at Cheltenham.

Honest Vic ran an absolute cracker off a mark off 122, beaten less than 2L for the win finishing 5th of 22 over 20.5f on good ground. He had plenty of subsequent winners in behind, including the likes of Brelan D’As, Mahlervous, Carlos Du Fruitier and Verni. He may well have been over the top for his final run of the 2017/18 season, and he was entitled to need his comeback run in October.

He was well beaten on both those occasions, but he did run well on his penultimate start at Ludlow (21f sft). Off a mark of 120 he was only 4L behind Burrows Park (conceding 10lb) and that horse won off 7lb higher by 9L next time before going on to be beaten 4L by Ballyandy off an 17lb higher mark than when he beat Honest Vic. He is also the 7/2 favourite for the Pertemps Qualifier at Haydock today, so in hindsight it was a super run by Honest Vic.

He raced lazily at times in that race and his jumping was a bit sketchy too, and that was also the case last time at Wincanton (21f gd). The application of a first time visor could really help Honest Vic brush up in both departments and he will be ridden by a talented jockey in Richard Patrick, whose 3lb claim negates the fact that Honest Vic is 1lb out of the handicap.

Interestingly, Patrick has done well on his rare forays to Ascot, with two winners and three top four finishes from just 9 rides. Henry Daly has a fine record there too, 15 winners and 29 top 4 finishes from 98 runners. Taking everything into account, Honest Vic looks a huge price at odds of 33/1 and if he can get back to the form of his handicap debut he could give each way backers a good run for their money.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 1.00 ASCOT – HONEST VIC E/W @ 33/1

Leopardstown Dublin Racing Festival Day 1 Tips

Race 1

The opening race on a card dripping with quality on Saturday at Leopardstown is a 22f Grade 1 Novice Hurdle. 16 will line up at the start and the ground is forecast to be good to yielding on the hurdle course. At a nice each way price Defi Bleu looks interesting for Elliott, Russell and Gigginstown.

Defi Bleu scoring in good style at Navan.

This 6yo son of Saddler Maker ran a cracker in defeat behind Derrinross at Limerick last time on ground softer than ideal. I think the return to better ground will suit him at Leopardstown, as will the slight drop back in trip. Four of the horses behind him at Navan (20f gd) when he won his maiden have won since. 16/1 looks a nice price and Defi Bleu is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DEFI BLEU E/W @ 16/1 NB

Race 2

Apple’s Jade is all the rage for the Irish Champion Hurdle after her exhilarating performance here last time out. However, that was over 3 miles and she may not get such an easy lead today. The drop back in trip has to rate as a huge worry and her last run over 16f in 2016 saw her beaten by Rashaan. At odds of 11/10 she looks too short.

I think that Apple’s Jade is worth taking on with last year’s Champion Hurdle runner up, Melon. He has yet to reproduce the form of that run at Cheltenham since, but he didn’t shape badly here over Xmas. That was his first run back so he should be a lot fitter now and this is his optimum trip. At odds of 11/4 Melon could upset the applecart and he is the pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MELON WIN @ 11/4

Race 3

A big field of 19 horses will go to post for this ultra competitive 16f handicap hurdle. Charles’ Byrnes progressive 7yo Wonder Laish is the current market leader at odds of just 9/2. He has won his last two, but he is up to a mark of 144 now and if connections are planning a trip to Cheltenham they won’t want his handicap mark getting another bump. One horse who could do with going up a couple of pounds to guarantee a run at Cheltenham is Ivanovich Gorbatov.

Ivanovich Gorbatov is extremely well handicapped.

This 7yo has failed to fire so far this winter but he has become a dangerously well handicapped horse. Now rated 134, he is 4lb lower than when beaten a neck at Killarney back in August. He was only beaten 3L off 150 at Cheltenham in 2017 and soft ground was against him there in 2018. Surely all roads lead back there for this former Triumph winner but he could struggle to get in off 134. A hike of 5 or 6lb would nearly guarantee a run, so I reckon he will try his best and at odds of 50/1 (6 places) he is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: IVANOVICH GORBATOV E/W @ 50/1

Race 4

No opinion on this bumper. No bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: NO BET

Race 5

The unseasonal good weather and quick ground means that only six will line up for the 17f Grade 1 Dublin Chase. It is a stacked field though, and a case can be made for most of them. Min is the hot favourite at 4/7 and he should win. However, he isn’t always the most reliable and I wouldn’t be steaming in at such a skinny price.

Min and Simply Ned lock horns again.

Yet again the bookies have underestimated Simply Ned. He edged out Footpad in a thriller here over Xmas and that was arguably a career best. He loves Leopardstown and has never run a poor race here. It is a pity it is only two places for each way bets, but at 15/2 Simply Ned is without a doubt the value in the race and he has to be chanced each way at those odds.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SIMPLY NED E/W @ 15/2 NAP

Race 6

The Irish Arkle Novice Chase over 17f is the penultimate race on the card at Leopardstown. This has attracted a field of 8 runners so at least this one will be three places each way. Le Richebourg impressed a lot of shrewd judges with the manner of his win here last time and he is a worthy looking favourite at 15/8. English raider Knocknauss chased home the mightily impressive Master Dinos last time and he could be a danger at odds of 11/4.

However, I am keen on the chances of a 16/1 shot for each way purposes and Articulum could go well for Terence O’Brien and David Mullins. This relatively lightly raced 9yo has taken a while to show his best, but he was very impressive when beating Campeador easily last time. He will enjoy the ground and though he is a 9yo there could be more to come now his trainer has found the key to him. At odds of 16/1 Articulum is the each way pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ARTICULUM E/W @ 16/1

Race 7

The closing race on the card is a 17f handicap chase with a field of 15. The one I like in this is R’evelyn Pleasure for Sean O’Brien and Donagh Meyler. This fella has been transformed since going chasing and he has won two of his last three over fences. He lowered the colours of Agent Boru last time and he beat Monatomic by 3L two starts back.

Chasing has been the making of R'evelyn Pleasure.

A mark of 127 looks more than fair to me and both Monatomic and Poker Party (9L behind) have won since. Poker Party’s win came in a handicap off a mark of 119 and he won by nearly 6L. That says to me that there could be some wriggle room in R’evelyn Leasure’s opening chase mark and he could go well for each way players at 14/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: R’EVELYN PLEASURE  E/W @ 14/1