Give The Bookies The Blues With Napoleon At Thurles

It has been a while since my last blog post here, but I have been busy with the TXODDS blog. I have already posted a fancy there for tomorrow, check it out by clicking here. My other fancy on Saturday runs in Ireland, and I think the step up in trip could be just what the doctor ordered for Napoleon Blue. This 6yo is trained by Adrian Murray and regular readers should know how much I respect his abilities as a handler.

 

Sean Flanagan winning on Bilbo Bagins.

Still only a 6yo, Napoleon Blue’s sole victory came in a soft ground point to point over 3 miles in October 2017. He has been brought along slowly under rules, but he was a massive eyecatcher on his fourth maiden hurdle run on his first try at beyond two miles. He stayed on really well from an unpromising position in that 19f contest, flying home for 4th, 11L behind the winner Heroesandvillains.

Plan Of Attack finished 3rd that day and he has since won a novice and a handicap and is now rated 122. Isle of Destiny was behind Napoleon Blue in 5th and he has since won a handicap off 107 in England. So, now off a mark of just 92, Napoleon Blue looks very dangerously handicapped on the form of that effort.

He started off this season at Galway back in October off a mark of 102 over an inadequate trip of 18f and was well beaten. He didn’t run too badly next time when beaten 11L at Fairyhouse over 20f on ground plenty quick enough off a mark of 100. He was sent off at just 7/1 when upped to 21f next time at Limerick, but he ran an absolute stinker. However, it makes sense to put a line through his last few runs as Adrian Murray’s horses were badly out of form.

He went a long time without a winner, but Sean Flanagan ended the drought on the well backed Bilbo Bagins at Navan on Monday. He is owned by the same connections as Napoleon Blue and Flanagan’s strike rate when riding in those colours is 50% (2/4). He is 3/11 overall when riding for Murray. His booking suggests that connections mean business on Saturday, and the cheekpieces are applied for the first time too. Off a reduced mark of just 92, Napoleon Blue is worth chancing each way at odds of 22/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 3.30 THURLES – NAPOLEON BLUE E/W @ 22/1

Step Up In Trip Could Spark Affaire Back To Life

Brecon Hill was well beaten for us last weekend, but in hindsight I think it wasn’t as poor a run as it looked. He rallied well in the home straight to get back up for 4th and I think he might finished closer if he had been ridden a lot more aggressively from the start. He was bang there three out, but he was badly outpaced around the home turn. Maybe a step up in trip will suit and I think he could still have a bit of progression left in him.  

Affair D'Honneur looks very well handicapped.

There is a half decent card at Newbury on Friday and I can’t resist having a small each way flutter on Affaire D’Honneur. This 8yo son of Shirocco was promising in his younger days, but he must have been hard to keep right. He has had just 19 starts under rules, and he spent a long time in the wilderness since his fine 4th here in the Betfair Hurdle off 132 for Harry Whittington in 2016.  

He won his next start by 8L at Fontwell in a poor Novice Hurdle (19f soft) but afterwards his form tailed off. Affair D’Honneur ran only nine times between then and his next good run, a 2nd in a selling hurdle at Stratford (19f gd) when trained by Kevin Frost. He got 6lb and was beaten 11L by Vive Le Roi who was racing off a mark of 100. Two starts later, Vive La Roi won a valuable Class 2 hurdle at Newbury off a mark of 128.

He stayed on well to grab 2nd that day, and shaped as though stepping up in trip might suit. It surely did, and Affaire D’Honneur finally got his head back in front at Worcester (23f gd). That was another seller, but again the form looks rock solid as the 2nd and 3rd both won their next two starts. He has since moved to the Tony Carroll yard and the tongue tie on for his last two runs was discarded on his stable debut at Leicester over an inadequate 15.5f.

Harry Bannister rides and his record for Carroll is excellent. He has had 23 rides for the trainer with 7 wins and 6 places for a level stakes profit of +£28.00 to a £1 stake. The drop in trip was never likely to suit last time, and with the tongue tie restored and the step back up in trip sure to suit, Affaire D’Honneur looks well worth chancing each way at 50/1 (888sport) off bottom weight and a mark of just 102.

STEVOS SELECTION: 3.55 NEWBURY AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR E/W @ 50/1