Son Worth A Look On Handicap Debut

What a day it was for us on Saturday. We failed to hit the target with our first three bets but I thought Julia Augusta ran with great credit in the Valiant. Rage Of Bamby got us off the mark in fine style by winning at York, advised at 20/1. However, the best was yet to come.

Goliath, our 33/1 e/w NAP, finally got the end to end gallop he craved and he absolutely demolished Auguste Rodin and co in the King George. As I hoped, he settled beautifully in behind the front runners and from at least five furlongs out you could see there was only going to be one winner.

The son of Adlerflug is now the top rated turf horse in the world at 125, all he needed was a truly run race to show how good he actually is.

Goodwood Thursday Fancy

My e/w fancy for Thursday goes in the opener at Glorious Goodwood. Son, making his handicap debut off 101, is a horse we have backed before, this season and last. He was my 20/1 e/w NAP when he ran in the Greenham in April and he was beaten just 1.5L into fourth after being backed down to 9/2. We were also on at 40s when he finished a 2.5L 5th behind Ghostwriter in the Royal Lodge last September.

Now, it must be said, that Greenham form has been let down since, including by Son. He nearly ran off the track on his next start at Sandown (8f sft) and finished stone last. On paper, his last run at Ascot (7f) in the G3 Jersey Stakes looked another poor effort but I don’t think it was quite as bad as his finishing position suggests.

Worth A Try Up In Trip

The records will show he finished 13th of 19, beaten 9L. However, he was drawn low, he took a while to settle and as the race developed, he was caught behind a wall of horses. In the end, he finished his race off rather nicely and given his pedigree, he looks well worth trying at this sort of trip.

The son of Too Darn Hot usually raced prominently previous to that Royal Ascot run. The new, more patient tactics seemed to suit him and he was just 1.5L behind Ziggy’s Dream at the finish, 3rd here in Wednesday’s Oak Tree Stakes. There’s loads of potential pace in this race and I am hoping that they go hard early and he can settle in behind the leaders in a decent position on the inner and hopefully, come with a late challenge.

Now, there is a chance that Son might need to be gelded before he shows what he is fully capable of. However, he ran well here on his only previous visit as a 2yo and I saw enough promise in his run at Ascot to justify a small e/w interest on him today on his first handicap start, especially at odds of 40/1.

1.50 Goodwood Selection: Son e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

Goliath A Huge Price For King George

Our long wait for a winner finally ended on Saturday. Our 16/1 NAP Castel Gandolfo made it third time lucky in the Summer Hurdle and on another day, our NB Torivega might have won too. This weekend, the feature race is the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and at 33/1, Goliath looks far too big.

This French raider is trained by Francis Graffard and news broke this afternoon that not only would his charge definitely be running, he has also booked the brilliant Belgian Christophe Soumillon for the ride.

This fella was last sighted running in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal Meeting over this C&D. He is a free going sort who often struggles to settle so Graffard was hoping that he would get a strongly run race, which would enable Goliath to travel a bit more evenly.

Plan Out The Window

However, that plan went out the window after a furlong. Nobody wanted to set the fractions in front and the race descended into a bit of a dawdle. Goliath started pulling the arms off Maxime Guyon after a furlong and he failed to settle for well over a mile.

As they turned for home Guyon was waiting for room, his mount still seemingly on the bridle, when Ise Of Jura swept down the outside and scooted clear. Goliath eventually ran on for second and when you consider how the race unfolded, it was a fine effort by the son of Adlerflug. He had Middle Earth 0.75L behind in third and Continuous even further back in fifth and they are 14/1 and 10/1 respectively here. Goliath is 33s.

Best Yet To Come

Like Graffard, I believe that we won’t see the best of this horse until he gets a proper end to end gallop. Thankfully, that is what Auguste Rodin needs too and O’Brien is likely to run at least one pacemaker for him. This could be the first time that Goliath gets a race run to suit and it’ll be fascinating to see how he fares if he settles and gets a strong pace to aim at.

We know he handles the track and while he might prefer a slight bit of juice in the ground, we know he ran well on fast ground at the Royal Meeting. He’s already beaten Middle Earth and Continuous in similar conditions, yet he is over 3x the price of the O’Brien horse and 2x the price of Middle Earth.

If Auguste Rodin pitches up in peak condition, he’s the one to beat but he can throw in the occasional stinker. Even if he does win, there’s still three places on offer and at 33/1, it is worth taking a chance on Goliath each way.

2024 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes Tip: Goliath e/w @ 33/1 (3 places) NAP

-DaveStevos

Wet Weather July Meeting E/W Double

My dreams for heavy rain came true at HQ today. They got 20mm in the space of just an hour and it is now officially soft. Our 100/1 July Cup bet on Vadream looks decent value now as she has shortened into 33s/25s in most places. Hopefully she brings her A-Game on Saturday.

Now that we know the ground will definitely be soft, I have found a couple of horses whose chances will be enhanced by the unseasonally wet weather. The first one I am interested in is Palmar Bay in the heritage handicap at 3pm on Thursday.

Ralph Beckett trains this son of Exceed and Excel and he is proven in testing ground. He has had just one start this term and it was a modest effort at Sandown 26 days ago. However, it was over a trip of 7f and he looked far too fresh.

That was his second try at 7f. Last season, he had a go in a handicap at Donny on heavy ground and he was again keen, ending up third beat 3L off 88. Previous to that, he had been campaigned solely over 5f and 6f. He was beat at odds of 5/4 on debut at Windsor (5f sft) but he made amends at Salisbury second time up, beating Jasour over 5f on good.

That form looks more than decent now and he followed it up with a 0.75L defeat of Solar Aclaim in a class 2 conditions race on soft at Salisbury. I think the drop back to 6f is a big plus today. They’ll go quicker, which should help him to settle and we know he handles testing ground. At odds of 25/1, he can hopefully hit the frame.

Global Can Outrun Odds

So, who else will appreciate a bit of cut this weekend? On Saturday, there’s a mile handicap for the 3yos at 2.50 and with the Brookhouse yard in good form, Global Skies might be worth a second glance. Like our old friend Mondo Man, this horse is by Mondialiste. His Sea The Stars dam won on soft, his full brother Balboa has won on heavy and Global Skies has already shown a liking for easy ground.

Ok, he admittedly didn’t run well on heavy at Doncaster on his last run of 2023 but that was a listed heat and it may have come too soon after his good second at Nottingham 17 days earlier. He had previously got off the mark on his first try on soft in a Haydock maiden and his best form this year has come on soft ground too.

Back in April he ran a fine race to finish third at Beverley (7.5f sft), beat 1.5L off 86. Good ground and 10f/9f can be blamed for his two runs since but every cloud has a silver lining. He’s been dropped to a mark of 83 and now that he’s back at a mile on soft ground, he could resume his progress.

Jack Gilligan is 6/36 with 16 top 4 finishes for Brookhouse, hopefully he can improve on that excellent frame hitting strike rate. At odds of 25/1, Global Skies is the e/w selection. Back him and Palmar Bay in singles and a cheeky little e/w double.

Newmarket Selections: 3pm Thursday: Palmar Bay e/w @ 25/1 (5 places); 2.50pm Saturday: Global Skies e/w @ 25/1 (4 places). 2x e/w singles and an e/w double recommended.

Let It Rain At Newmarket

Saturday was a bit of a disaster. Unbreak My Heart came up short at Sandown and Magic Memories was pipped for a place. At Haydock, the rain never came and that put paid to the chances of both our bets there. You’d think I’d have learned my lesson regarding trusting weather forecasts but there’s a deluge forecast for Newmarket this week and if the rain arrives, there’s a 100/1 shot who will relish the muck.

We latched onto Vadream at decent odds when there was rain forecast on Lincoln Day at Donny (6f hvy) last year. She duly went on to win easily and she won again on soft a few weeks later on the Rowley course at Newmarket over the minimum trip, beating Live In The Dream by half a length.

She has failed to get her head in front in ten runs since but to be fair to her, only two of those runs came on soft ground. In October she was arguably a shade unlucky in an Ascot G3 on good ground, short of room and finishing just 1.75l behind the now 110 rated Annaf.

This season, her best run came when beat a head behind Seven Questions over 5f, again on good ground at Newmarket. She simply didn’t show up on her sole soft ground start this term at Haydock but there was a lot more to like about her excellent fifth in the Jubilee at Royal Ascot.

Charlie Fellowes’ daughter of Brazen Beau was 4.75L behind the winner Khaadem but she was only a couple of lengths behind Mill Stream (14/1) and if the rain comes and it turns bottomless, I reckon she could turn the tables on both of those rivals.

Jasour (10/1/), River Tiber (6/1) and Regional (9/1) won’t appreciate testing ground. Inisherin is a horse I rate highly and he has won on soft and good to firm. He looks a bit of a monster but apart from him, this looks a pretty open race to me. Vadream is capable of running to 110+ on bottomless ground, if the rain comes and she runs to that level, hopefully it’ll be good enough for a place.

July Cup Ante-Post Selection: Vadream e/w @ 100/1