We didn’t manage to land a winner at Aintree but we landed place money with Jordans, and Take No Chances on Saturday and with Ike Sport (NB), Solness, and Mahons Glory (NAP) on Friday so overall, it wasn’t a complete disaster. We are back on the Flat tomorrow, my 2026 Newmarket Craven meeting Thursday tips are below.
1.50 – Betway Handicap (Class 2)
As is always the case in this early part of the season, many
of these sprinters are lacking a recent run so fitness and well-being has to be
taken on trust. Richard Hughes has started the season well and the booking of
Ryan Moore for Sayidah Hard Spun catches the eye but I am going to take a chance
on one at a far bigger price.
Sir Alfie has been installed as the rank outsider of the field
at 40/1 but based on his win at the Curragh over this trip on good ground for
Ger Lyons last August, he might be a touch overpriced here for Charlie Pike and
Tom Greatrex.
After a moderate debut in the Navan maiden won by Charles
Darwin, Sir Alfie was pretty consistent on good ground for Lyons. He got off
the mark second time out at Down Royal
(5f, good) when seemingly the stable’s second string, giving 7lbs and a 1l
beating to his now 92 rated stable companion.
On his next start at Cork, again over 5f, he finished a respectable
third in a rated race, finishing 2.25l behind the runner up Kansas, who is now
rated 101. Six lengths behind him in fifth was Oh Cecilia, already a two-time
winner this season in Ireland who is now rated 89.
On his last start at 6f on good ground, Sir Alfie scored on
his handicap debut at the Curragh off a mark of 85. He left Ger Lyons shortly
after that win and his next two starts for Charles Byrnes came in listed races over
6f on yielding ground at Fairyhouse and on the AW over 5f at Dundalk.
He has been gelded in the off-season and he will have his optimum
conditions of 6f on good ground for his first UK run for Charlie Pike. The
market will probably indicate how he is expected to run but if he’s fit and ready
I think he’s more than capable of being competitive off a mark of 90 so at 40/1,
I’ll have a small each way bet.
2026 Newmarket Craven meeting Thursday Tip: Sir Alfie e/w
@ 40/1 (5 places)
2.25 – Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 2)
One of the most prestigious British 3yo maidens which is
often won by a useful animal. You’d think the market would be informative for a
race like this but only two favourites have obliged since 2016 and there’s been
three double figure priced winners in that period so we might as well have a go
at finding one at rewarding odds.
The one I’ll take a swing at is Bemersyde for Jane
Chapple-Hyam and Rossa Ryan. By Ghaiyyath, this colt is a half-brother to the
very useful Warnie, a Group 2 winner in Australia. His dam won over an extended
mile so this looks the right trip for him on debut and the booking of Ryan for
the ride is a plus too (2/15 with three top 4s for this owner).
Chapple-Hyam ran two in this last season in these silks and
they finished third and fourth at 11/4 and 33/1. The yard can ready
one and hopefully, Bemersyde shows up well. Given the circumstances he isn’t one to be lumping on but at 16/1, a small e/w
interest is advised.
2026 Newmarket Craven meeting Thursday Tip: Bemersyde e/w
@ 16/1
3.00 – Abernant Stakes (Group 3)
A quality race with some top sprinters making their seasonal
reappearances. Last year’s Commonwealth Cup winner Time For Sandals is surprisingly
big at 4/1, especially with Ryan Moore booked for the ride.
Both Aramram and Jasour (who we have backed plenty of times
before) have had the benefit of a recent run, finishing 1-2 in that order in
the Cammidge at Doncaster. However, I can’t let Run To Freedom go unbacked,
even at the ripe old age of eight.
He’s never won when we’ve backed him but he’s placed at monstrous
odds on multiple occasions and overall, he owes us nothing. To be honest, I thought
he would have been retired at the end of last season but the fact Henry Candy
is bringing him back for another season suggests he still thinks he has a big
one in him.
It is encouraging that one of his best runs last year came
on his seasonal reappearance in this very race when he was beaten just 1.5l
into fourth behind the subsequent G1 winner Sajir. He pulled hard that day so
it was a fine effort in the circumstances and hopefully he will settle better this time in this much
bigger field.
He still hasn’t been gelded so a career at stud is clearly
still on the cards for the son of Muhaarar and if he were to repeat the form he
showed when a fine third in the July Cup here last year, he won’t be far away.
At odds of 33/1, back Run To Freedom e/w.
2026 Newmarket Craven meeting Thursday Tip: Run To
Freedom e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)
3.35 – Craven Stakes (Group 3)
The main event on Thursday at HQ is the Craven Stakes. Some very
classy horses have won this in recent years, including the likes of Field Of
Gold, Haatem (who we backed at 16s), Native Trail, Masar and Eminent.
This year, Coolmore are represented by the Futurity Stakes
winner Hawk Mountain, but the fact that Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
has to rate as a worry for his backers. Godolphin have a fine record in this
race and they are double handed. Both their runners are 2/2, with Buick on the
Frankel colt Hidden Force for Charlie Appleby and Ray Dawson on Avicenna for Roger
Varian.
All three of those aforementioned horses are single figure prices, which is
no use to us, but a few firms are paying three places e/w so at 25/1, I’ll take
a chance on the George Scott trained Victor Ludorum colt, Commander’s Intent.
This horse had a fine 2yo campaign after a moderate run on
debut at Newbury. He subsequently won a York maiden and a Doncaster handicap off
87 and his last three starts of 2025 came in stakes races.
At Baden Baden in September he was beaten just 2l into second
in a Group 3 by Gostam (who won his next start in a G3 by 5l). He then finished
second again in the G3 Sommerville Stakes over this C&D (good), beaten 4l
by the subsequent Dewhurst third Distant Storm, currently an 8/1 poke for the
2000 Guineas.
On his final start of last season he ran second in a 7f (soft)
listed contest at Chantilly. I believe this horse will eventually prove most
effective over 1m but given his record over 7f, it makes sense to keep him at
the distance for now and depending on how Thursday goes, maybe step him up in
trip next time.
With an official rating of 100 he hasn’t got a lot to find
with the two Godolphin runners on paper and with odds of 25/1 on offer, a small
each way interest on Commander’s Intent is advised.
2026 Newmarket Craven meeting Thursday Tip: Commander’s
Intent e/w @ 25/1 (3 places)
