Kingdom Could Finally Come Good At Down Royal

Mountain Kingdom is a horse that the term 'expensive to follow' was coined for. The frustrating 4yo remains a maiden after 19 starts, and what makes it worse is that he clearly has the ability necessary to win a race.

He went close on his second handicap run when he was in the care of Mark Prescott off a mark of 71, but that was as good as it got for Mountain Kingdom in the UK. He went up to mark of 75 on the back of that effort, and despite being well backed on a couple of occasions he proved to be very disappointing.

He was given tally ho from the Prescott stable, and was picked up for a cut price 11.500gns at the sales. He was initially bought for 95,000gns, so as you can imagine he is rather well bred. He just hasn't lived up to his pedigree as of yet.

However, he couldn't be with a better trainer to sweeten him up, and he has been falling in the handicap despite showing clear signs that some ability remained in recent runs. His effort behind Bog War when returning from a mini break at Galway off a mark of 62, when finishing 5th beaten less than 4 lengths was a huge step forward.

He couldn't follow it up when upped to 14f on his next run at the same track, but on his penultimate run at Roscommon he again ran well dropped back to 12f. That came off 61, and the pattern of a good run followed by a bad one continued over 16f at Dundalk last time out, when he was beaten out of sight.

At least that effort has resulted in him being dropped another pound by the handicapper, and the return to 12f on easyish ground will hopefully spark this inconsistent gelding back into life. Down Royal is a similar sort of track to Galway and a reproduction of Mountain Kingdom's run there behind Bog War would be sufficient to see him in the shake up here. He looks worth a small each way interest at 16/1 and his pilot Ross Coakley, is riding out of his skin at the moment.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 6.35 DOWN ROYAL: MOUNTAIN KINGDOM 16/1 (E/W)

All Ireland Final Preview-Dublin vs Kerry

Tens of thousands will descend on Jones' Road on the third Sunday of September, and they will all be there to witness two age old rivals go head to head for the right to raise the fabled Sam Maguire Cup. The frenzy for tickets has already begun, and every aul wan and young fella are on the lookout for a stray Hill, or Hogan, or bleedin' anywhere ticket.

The match itself promises to be a classic, because when the Dubs and the Kingdom collide it is always a match that remains etched in the memory. Cluxton's free and McManamon's goal back in 2011. Sheehy's exquisite lob in '78. Kevin Moran's barnstorming runs in '76 and '77. It is a fixture where legends are born, and this year's edition has the potential to produce yet more heroes that will forever be adored.

It is a final that is befitting of it's status as an 'All Ireland' as the two teams involved are without doubt the best the country has to offer. Both have extremely strong squads. Dublin will have the likes of Alan Brogan, Dennis Bastick and  Kevin McManamon  to choose from should things go awry for the starting fifteen, but the options possessed by the Kingdom look even stronger.

Against Mayo their bench included Paul Galvin, Bryan Sheehan, Darran O'Sullivan, Fionn Fitzgerald, Aidan O'Mahony and most worryingly of all for Dublin supporters Tommy Walsh. He has had just a brief outing in the championship so far this year, but what a weapon he is to have in reserve.Not to mention Barry John Keane.

Fitzmaurice looks to be a top class manager, as not only has he kept his squad of superstars happy, he has also developed a Kerry team that can change their style of play with ease. Tyrone looked to have them rattled in the semi final, but Kerry knew they couldn't maintain the intensity they showed early on, and even when the Ulstermen drew level in the 2nd half the result was never really in doubt. The Kerry supremo knew Tyrone would tire, and they tagged on a couple of insurance points in the closing stages to ensure the job was completed.

Kerry look to have more strings to their bow than Dublin, and the Dubs will be relying on their exciting forward line to deliver the goods. Bernard Brogan has adapted well to the inevitable loss of a yard of pace, and has countered it with a huge increase in accuracy. Diarmuid Connolly, despite a poor showing against Mayo, is probably the most naturally talented footballer bar Gooch in the country, and Kerry will need to nullify his threat.

McManamon, the ghost of All Irelands past for Kerry, is not even guaranteed a starting spot for the Dubs, but his effectiveness as an impact sub cannot be questioned. He is an admirable player. Never complains, and when he gets his chance he gives it 110%. The sort of individual a manager prays for. And his knack for scoring crucial goals is an added bonus. He is Dublin's Solskjaer.

However, even with all this explosive forward talent at their disposal Dublin look short at the back. A more clinical Mayo team would have won by 4 points in the first game. They had a succession of easy wides (Andy Moran, among others, had a couple of brutal efforts before redeeming himself) and they created plenty at times in the replay too. Cian O'Sullivan has been playing centre half back, and while there is no doubting his ability as a footballer, his suitability for the pivotal centre half back role is still in question.

In essence O'Sullivan is a midfielder, and one with natural attacking instincts too. He has done a decent job at centre half back, but it is obvious it is not his natural position.His tendency to attack leaves Dublin exposed sometimes (just ask Donegal last year), and they have missed Ger Brennan so much in that position. The St Vincents man's positional sense is second to none, and he is a huge loss for this Dublin team.

So now the vital question comes. Who is going to win? From a personal perspective I only want to see one winner. I am a Dub at the end of the day, so I would love to see them do it.

There is very little between these teams according to the bookies, and as usual they are probably right. I just hope that some of you took the 4/1 about Kerry for the All Ireland when I tipped them up earlier in the year.

At 6/5 Kerry are probably a bit skinny now, but if there are any Dubs on at 4/1 there is nothing like the consolation of a few bob when you suffer the blow of a crushing defeat!

STEVOS' SELECTION: C'MON THE DUBS!!!

All Star Could Return To Form At Laytown

Red All Star is a horse I tipped up earlier in the year when he ran at Naas back in June over 7f on quick ground. He ended up in 2nd that day off a mark of 67. He has been expensive to follow since, and his last couple of runs have been particularly disappointing. However, I don't think this son of Haatef should be written off just yet.

Pat Martin has been running him on soft ground recently, and he was never going to show up well on that sort of a surface. He has also been running him over 5f and 7f, which is puzzling given that 6f is the trip he won over last year. His only start over that distance this year was at Naas and he was drawn out in the car park in a field of 20, so his poor effort on that occasion is excused.

 Martin is based not too far from Laytown, and he enjoys having a winner there (2/4 last season  at the meeting).Red All Star's sire Haatef has a 33% strike rate on an artificial surface, so there is every chance he will enjoy the sand at the track. Shane Foley is a positive jockey booking, and he is 3/11 for Martin over the past 5 seasons.

If running Red All Star on the wrong ground and over unsuitable trips was a ploy to get his handicap mark down, it has worked a treat. A reproduction of his run at Naas back in June would suffice here, and at 16/1 he looks worth taking a chance on off a mark of just 57.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.10 LAYTOWN:  RED ALL STAR 16/1 

Hot Rod Could Strike Again At Leicester

El Beau did the business for us on Sunday at York, and at 20/1(adv) it was a sweet victory indeed. With two winners at 10/1 and 20/1, along with a place at 14/1 it was a good weekend for the blog, and there is an interesting horse at Leicester tomorrow that might be worth investing a little bit of the winnings on.

Sir Roderic, a 2yo gelded son of first season sire  Roderic O'Connor trained by Rod Millman, goes in the opening maiden at Leicester. He was sent off at fancy odds on debut at Wndsor, and ran a decent enough race despite obvious greenness to finish 10th. That race has produced a few winners since so the form doesn't look too bad.

 His next run also came at Windsor, and it was a huge improvement on his first run. He came home in fourth, beaten less than two lengths for the win, and kept on very well in the final furlong, shaping as if a step up in trip would suit. His pedigree suggests it will suit too (loads of stamina on dam side).

He gets that step up in trip today, and with Freddy Tylicki taking the ride he won't lack for assistance from the saddle. Of Millman's last four runners two have won, and another finished a close 3rd. He is clearly in form at the moment, and Sir Roderic looks way too big a price at 25/1 in what seems to be a very winnable maiden.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.00 LEICESTER: SIR RODERIC (25/1) E/W.

A Couple From The Knavesmire On Sunday

A good day for the blog yesterday, but it could have been even better if Duretto would have just bloody gone by Wonder Laish like he was supposed to! At least it wasn't another loser though, and Hassle also ran a cracker to finish 3rd at Haydock. He is one to keep an eye on for his next couple of starts.

There are two horses that catch my eye today, and they both go at York. In the 2.30, a 10f handicap, El Beau is the horse that is of interest. This 4yo gelded son of Camacho returned from a break after a successful spell hurdling with a fine effort over 9f at Hamilton. That came off a mark of 76, the same as he has today, and he ran a lovely race, staying on nicely for 5th in the final furlong.

He will strip fitter for that effort, his first run since March, and he will also appreciate the extra furlong. He went close last season off this mark over 10f at Chester, and he followed that up with a cracking effort in 6th over today's course and distance in a stronger race than today's. Both those efforts came off 76, and with useful young claimer Joe Doyle taking off a handy 3lb he should run a big race today. His trainer has been amongst the winners in recent weeks too, another positive, and he looks too big a price at 20/1.

The other horse that I fancy today is a beautifully bred Yeats filly trained by George Moore, and she goes in the 2m handicap at 4.05. Lady Yeats has been ultra consistent this season, except on her seasonal return, and she went mightily close last time at Chester, an all the more impressive run when you consider she lost ground at the start having been hampered.

Connections reach for the visor today, and hopefully that will sharpen her up in the stalls and she breaks on terms. She has been raised 2lbs for that effort at Chester to a career high mark of 75, but she is only a 4yo and lightly raced so she could well be capable of defying it. She loves the trip, is in excellent form, and granted a better start she should go very close. She looks well worth an each way interest at 14/1.

STEVOS' SELECTIONS:    
 2.30 YORK-                  EL BEAU (20/1) E/W
                                               
 4.05 YORK-                  LADY YEATS (14/1) NAP E/W

Connolly Farce A Dark Day For Gaa

Dublin supporters woke up this morning to the news that Diarmuid Connolly has had his suspension for striking Lee Keegan overturned. Having had two appeals turned down during the week he took his case to a higher authority, the DRA, and they ruled in the mercurial centre forward's favour. He will be lining out for the Dubs in their eagerly anticipated replay with Mayo at Croke Park this evening, and no doubt he will be one of the main contribtors to the spectacle.

However, this decision raises serious questions about the future of the disciplinary procedures of the GAA, and how they must regret setting a precedent when they overturned Lee Keegan's red card for throwing a boot into Kerry's Johnny Buckley last year. It seems now that striking will no longer result in a suspension, and the only punishment the guilty player will face is missing the remainder of the game if the referee sends him off. It is a truly farcical situation, but the GAA have nobody but themselves to blame.

A solution will not be easy to find either. Any player sent off for striking will know that if they keep appealing, and take it to the courts, the judge will rule in their favour. No matter how obvious, or violent, the offence is the GAA will not be able to enforce a suspension once the player involved decides to appeal. Their hands are tied now, and it will be interesting to see how they try to wriggle out of this one. Joe Brolly's view on the matter should be fascinating later given his legal background, and the GAA may well need the services of a crack lawyer if they are going to clean up this mess that is all of their own making.

Saturday's Selections

Yourholidayisover was backed off the boards throughout the day yesterday, but even so he still couldn't manage a place, missing out on third in the final strides. To say it was a sickener is an understatement. Saturday is a day stuffed with decent quality action, and there are a couple of tastily priced horses that have caught my eye.

Duretto has crept in near the bottom of the handicap in the 3.25 at Ascot, a Class 2 Heritage handicap run over 1m 4f. The ground is currently good to soft, and with showers forecast overnight there should be an ease. This will be music to the ears of Andrew Balding, as Duretto has shown a clear preference for soft ground during his short five race career. He has two wins in those starts, with his most recent one coming last time out over course and distance on soft, when he routed a small field.

Jim Crowley rode him with supreme confidence that day, and he waited with him in rear, making his move as they turned into the home straight. He travelled powerfully up on the outside, and a furlong from home Crowley got to work and administered a couple of smacks. The response was immediate, and he pulled away for an impressive 3 length victory, after which his trainer suggested he could 'go on now' and suggested this race as a possible target.

He is bred to be useful, a half brother to Nabatean, who ran Clever Cookie close in a Listed race earlier this year and his dam is a Listed winner out of a half sister to a dual Group 1 winner. His sire Manduro is not half bad either, and at odds of 10/1 he could prove better than his current rating of 85.

Another one that looks overpriced goes in the 2.35 at Haydock in another Class 2 Handicap. Hassle, trained by Clive Cox and with Dane O'Neill booked for the ride, can currently be backed at odds of 14/1 for this 1m 6f contest.

This horse had a spell hurdling in the Spring with Nicky Henderson, but he didn't show an aptitude for the jumping game, and that experiment was quickly aborted and he returned for a flat campaign with Clive Cox. He has had a couple of runs back from a post hurdling career break, both over 16f, and he showed that all his old flat ability remained. He shaped as if that trip just stretched his stamina, and the drop back to today's trip, which he is 3/4 over, will suit him in a big way.

His only defeat over this trip came in this race last year, by just 3 lengths, but he will be a much fresher animal this time around and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that this race is the plan. He races off the same mark that he had last year,and his last two runs should have him cherry ripe for today. Soft ground holds no fears, and Hassle looks well worth an each way interest at his current odds of 14/1, even if the draw could have been kinder.

STEVOS' SATURDAY SELECTIONS: 

2.35 HAYDOCK: HASSLE (14/1) E/W

3.25 ASCOT:     DURETTO (10/1) NAP.

Costello Could Clean Up At Newcastle

Day Star Lad disappointed at Chelmsford last night, although he had an excuse, clipping heels at a vital time and almost coming down. By the time Swift got him back on track the race was gone, and he was very easy on him in the home straight. It won't be long until he wins again. Stick him in your horsetracker for his next three runs.

Today's fancy comes from Newcastle, and he goes in the 4.00. Yourholidayisover has been a frustrating horse to follow recently, and I know better than most having backed him on his last few runs. I firmly believe he is ready and weighted to win, and the booking of Dougie Costello tomorrow really catches the eye.

He ran here back in June, with young Russell Harris (a talented young claimer) on board, and he found only a well treated Card High too good. It was an excellent run though, and he bettered it when facing soft ground over today's trip at Beverley when beaten just two lengths off 49, a pound higher than his mark today.

He ran a screamer last time from out of the weights in a stronger race than this one, finishing fourth and beaten less than four lengths off an effective mark of 54. He is off 48 today, Pat Holmes has had a couple go very close in the past few days, as well as having a winner for these connections. At his current odds of 14/1 Yourholidayisover looks worthy of a little bit of each way support in what looks a pretty poor race.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.00 NEWCASTLE-YOURHOLIDAYISOVER 14/1 (E/W)

Lad Can Star For Shaw At Chelmsford

Day Star Lad goes this evening in the 8.45 at Chelmsford, and whilst he may be priced up at 12/1, I believe he has a far better chance than those odds suggest.

He has won twice in his career, both times on Southwell's fibresand, but he showed a liking for this course and distance last time out, his second run back from a break, and he was unlucky not to be placed having been denied a clear run at a crucial time.

He is sure to strip fitter this evening after that outing, and from a handicapping perspective he is looking exceedingly well treated. His last win (a 7 length demolition job) came off a mark of 58, and he races off a 10lb lower rating tonight.

 If Swift can keep him close enough going into the last couple of furlongs, and the gaps appear at the right time, Day Star Lad must have a great chance of getting his head back in front tonight. At 12/1 he looks worth supporting each way in a race that won't take much winning.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 8.45 CHELMSFORD-DAY STAR LAD 12/1.

Williams' Charge Reddy To Win At Bath

Lady Nayef was a non runner today, which at least halted our run of losers! Today's selection, All Reddy, goes at Bath in the 4.20, and it is the jockey booking and projected ground that drew my attention to this horse.
This 4yo is a gelded son of Compton Place, and his dam was a winner over 11.5f. She has produced a few winners, including Mr Gotham, a 10.5f Listed winner on heavy ground. He has been campaigned mainly on the all weather during his 13 race career, and has a couple of runner up placings on that surface, including a close call on his penultimate run at Wolverhampton (8.5f ) where he shaped as if a step up in trip was badly needed when finishing with a wet sail.
However, of his four runs on turf his third effort, in a maiden at Ripon on good to soft ground (10f), was by far his most encouraging. He still looked green as grass that day, and he kept on nicely enough for 4th and the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th have all won races since.
Back on a similar surface today with the champion jockey elect Silvestre De Sousa booked (9/56 past 5 seasons) and off a mark of just 53 surely All Reddy can make the frame in this low grade handicap. 9/1 about his chances look huge and he is a confident selection in what looks a pretty poor race.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.20 BATH- ALL REDDY 9/1.