Wish In A Well rewarded each way support for us at Warwick on New Year's Eve but in truth I was disappointed he couldn't finish closer. he jumped and travelled like the best horse in the race but just couldn't go with the front two. He is still a young horse though and he might just need more time before he shows his very best.
Tomorrow sees some seriously good action on both sides of the Irish Sea with quality cards at Fairyhouse and Cheltenham. One horse I am dying to see is Seeyouatmidnight for Sandy Thomson who goes in the Dipper Chase, a grade 2 contest at 1.10. The trip of 2m4f might be a bit sharp for the striking son of Midnight Legend and he is also stepping up in class. However conditions will be right up his street with the current ground described as heavy and hopefully that will bring his stamina into play. It would be great to see a smaller Northern yard win a graded race at jumps hq.
The horse I am putting up goes at Exeter for a trainer that regular readers of the blog will be very familiar with by now. Only Gorgeous went close for us over course and distance back in October off a mark of 100. The ground was good to firm that day and it is going to be very different here. It is currently described as heavy and that is a bit of an unknown with this 7yo son of Vertical Speed.
However, there is real hope that he will not only handle, but will actually relish the ground conditions at Exeter tomorrow. His sire, Vertical Speed, has had 59 runners on heavy ground. 10 have won and 21 have been placed which adds up to a 53% strike rate of his progeny hitting the frame on heavy. It gets better on the dam side of his pedigree as his dams only win came in a point to point on soft. Her dam is a half sister to Maid For Dancing who loved a slog, as did a couple of other siblings. Interestingly his full brother Mentor won a 19f maiden hurdle on yielding at Cork back in August and he is trained by Aidan O'Brien and owned by JP McManus.
Only Gorgeous proved he handled the track with his run here last time and the handicapper has generously dropped him 3lb to 103 after a moderate run when stepped up in trip at Taunton last time. The Gardener's love to have winners at Exeter and it would be no surprise to see a much improved performance with Lucy on board taking off a handy 3lb. He looks a big price at 18/1 and presumably the bookies reckon he won't handle the ground. As I have illustrated above there is a decent chance he will and at those sort of odds he looks well worth chancing each way.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.55 EXETER-ONLY GORGEOUS 18/1 E/W
Tipster that loves big prices. Racing/NFL/Soccer/Rugby Twitter: @davestevos Biggest Winners: Goliath 33/1 Rage Of Bamby 20/1 Party Rock 33/1 Don't Touch It 40/1 Burning Brightly 33/1 Back Before Dawn 25/1 Court Frontier 20/1 Bilbo Bagins 20/1 Pacha Du Polder 20/1 Champagne Classic 25/1 Whatareudoingtome 20/1 Talismanic 20/1 Tower Bridge 40/1 Kilfenora 25/1 Lalor 16/1 Paper Lantern 14/1 Examiner 20/1 Romanised 40/1 Masar 20/1 Accidental Agent 33/1 Harry The Viking 28/1 Dragon Houdini 50/1
Thursday, 31 December 2015
Wednesday, 30 December 2015
Wish Could Finally Deliver At Warwick
Master Rajeem failed to run to his best at Doncaster and he trailed in a well beaten fifth. It was a very disappointing effort. The handicapper will have to drop him another few pounds for that run and he is one to look out for when dropped back into class 4 company.
Tomorrow there are meetings scheduled on both sides of the Irish Sea and Punchestown hosts it's ususal New Year's Eve fixture. However, the horse I am interested goes in the class 4 handicap chase at 3.10 in Warwick and the forecast heavy ground should be right up the selection's street.
Wish In A Well is a horse I have been keeping an eye on for quite a while, the main reason being his pedigree. This 6yo son of Gamut is related to a host of winners,and the best of them include In Compliance and One Cool Cookie, two seriously classy chasers. Both of them are heavy ground winners and that is the current ground description at Warwick.
However, as his mark of 90 illustrates, Wish In A Well has yet to show he has even half the ability of his two half brothers, although he has shown definite promise on a couple of occasions and his best efforts have come on soft ground. He started off in handicaps off a rating of 113 and he is now rated 23lb lower at 90. He was sent off 7/2 fav for his last start off a mark of 93, his first run of the season, at Leicester (20f good) so he must have been showing plenty at home.
He should strip a lot fitter for that run and it should also be remembered that he has time on his side as he is still (just about!) a 6yo. He travelled well enough last time before blowing up in the closing stages and with his pedigree strongly suggesting that heavy ground will suit he is definitely worth a few quid each way at odds of 14/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.10 WARWICK-WISH IN A WELL 14/1 E/W
Tomorrow there are meetings scheduled on both sides of the Irish Sea and Punchestown hosts it's ususal New Year's Eve fixture. However, the horse I am interested goes in the class 4 handicap chase at 3.10 in Warwick and the forecast heavy ground should be right up the selection's street.
Wish In A Well is a horse I have been keeping an eye on for quite a while, the main reason being his pedigree. This 6yo son of Gamut is related to a host of winners,and the best of them include In Compliance and One Cool Cookie, two seriously classy chasers. Both of them are heavy ground winners and that is the current ground description at Warwick.
However, as his mark of 90 illustrates, Wish In A Well has yet to show he has even half the ability of his two half brothers, although he has shown definite promise on a couple of occasions and his best efforts have come on soft ground. He started off in handicaps off a rating of 113 and he is now rated 23lb lower at 90. He was sent off 7/2 fav for his last start off a mark of 93, his first run of the season, at Leicester (20f good) so he must have been showing plenty at home.
He should strip a lot fitter for that run and it should also be remembered that he has time on his side as he is still (just about!) a 6yo. He travelled well enough last time before blowing up in the closing stages and with his pedigree strongly suggesting that heavy ground will suit he is definitely worth a few quid each way at odds of 14/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.10 WARWICK-WISH IN A WELL 14/1 E/W
Tuesday, 29 December 2015
Rajeem Could Reign For King At Doncaster
My Murphy ran a stinker in the Paddy Power for the blog on Sunday, pulled up having jumped poorly throughout. He is usually raced prominently in his races to get a clear sight of the fences so the writing was on the wall from a long way out unfortunately. I still believe he has a good race in him and he could be one to keep onside for the Irish Grand National in the Spring, especially if the handicapper relents and drops him a few pounds.
There is more action at Leopardstown for the final day of their Xmas festival and in the Grade 1 Novice Chase only four go to post, with three of them owned by Gigginstown. Rule The World, trained by Mouse Morris and ridden by Davy Russell, should not be discounted here and looks a big price at 20/1 back up in trip. He has run some big races with little luck and is due a change of fortune.
However, the horse I really like the look of goes at Doncaster tomorrow and Master Rajeem looks to have a right shout off bottom weight in the concluding handicap chase at 3.25. This 6yo son of Street Cry is a former dual bumper winner who looked like he was returning to form last time after two poor runs since returning from his summer break.
He absolutely hosed up in a class 4 handicap chase at Sedgefield (26.5 soft) last January off a mark of 113 and he subsequently ran a couple of very decent races off his revised mark in class 3 company, including an 8l 2nd to Sir Mangan off 125 when conceding 8lb (Sir Mangan went on to win off 124 later in the year).
He ran a couple of shockers at Sedgefield (19.5f good to soft) and at Lingfield (23.5 heavy) in November, but every cloud has a silver lining and the handicapper relented and dropped him 8lbs, back down to 115. He showed definite signs of life last time here over 26f on good to soft, proving he handles the track and running a nice race in 3rd beaten 14l.
The handicapper has dropped him another pound to 114, just a pound higher than the mark he won so impressively off at Sedgefield. Neil King has 2 horses in the race and stable jockey Trevor Whelan has opted to ride his other one, Keltic Rhythm. Richie McLernon has been booked for Master Rajeem, and he was placed on his only other ride for King. Whelan didn't ride when Master Rajeem won at Sedgefield either so I am not overly concerned about the jockey booking. The ground is ideal, he gets the trip, handles the track and he is starting to look well treated again. At 20/1 Master Rajeem looks well worth supporting each way in an open looking race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.25 DONCASTER-MASTER RAJEEM E/W 20/1
There is more action at Leopardstown for the final day of their Xmas festival and in the Grade 1 Novice Chase only four go to post, with three of them owned by Gigginstown. Rule The World, trained by Mouse Morris and ridden by Davy Russell, should not be discounted here and looks a big price at 20/1 back up in trip. He has run some big races with little luck and is due a change of fortune.
However, the horse I really like the look of goes at Doncaster tomorrow and Master Rajeem looks to have a right shout off bottom weight in the concluding handicap chase at 3.25. This 6yo son of Street Cry is a former dual bumper winner who looked like he was returning to form last time after two poor runs since returning from his summer break.
He absolutely hosed up in a class 4 handicap chase at Sedgefield (26.5 soft) last January off a mark of 113 and he subsequently ran a couple of very decent races off his revised mark in class 3 company, including an 8l 2nd to Sir Mangan off 125 when conceding 8lb (Sir Mangan went on to win off 124 later in the year).
He ran a couple of shockers at Sedgefield (19.5f good to soft) and at Lingfield (23.5 heavy) in November, but every cloud has a silver lining and the handicapper relented and dropped him 8lbs, back down to 115. He showed definite signs of life last time here over 26f on good to soft, proving he handles the track and running a nice race in 3rd beaten 14l.
The handicapper has dropped him another pound to 114, just a pound higher than the mark he won so impressively off at Sedgefield. Neil King has 2 horses in the race and stable jockey Trevor Whelan has opted to ride his other one, Keltic Rhythm. Richie McLernon has been booked for Master Rajeem, and he was placed on his only other ride for King. Whelan didn't ride when Master Rajeem won at Sedgefield either so I am not overly concerned about the jockey booking. The ground is ideal, he gets the trip, handles the track and he is starting to look well treated again. At 20/1 Master Rajeem looks well worth supporting each way in an open looking race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.25 DONCASTER-MASTER RAJEEM E/W 20/1
Saturday, 26 December 2015
Sunday's Selection
A decent day for the blog on Saturday with both C'est Notre Gris and Court Jester just about hanging on for place money. Marey ran a shocker and was pulled up a long way from home. It was a chancy selection and at huge prices they can run like that sometimes. Onwards and upwards for tomorrow!
We are back at Kempton and Leopardstown on Sunday with more high class action in store. Sprinter Sacre will be out to prove he is really back to his best, though I am looking forward to seeing how Duke Of Medina gets on in the opener at Kempton as he was hugely impressive in winning his last start at Market Rasen. This is a big step up in class but any rain that falls will be in his favour and he could run well at a price if it is soft or worse.
However, the most valuable race of the day, and also probably the most competitive, is the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown where a bumper field of 28 go to post in the hope of capturing the 100k+ first prize. In such a big field there are a number of horses that a case can be made for, but the one I like is the Liam Burke trained My Murphy, who has run some very good races in valuable big field handicaps during the past year and he made a more than encouraging return to action over an inadequate 20f at Navan last time, staying on pleasingly late in the day.
He ran in this race last year, off a mark of 141, and he eventually finished a well beaten 9th. However, he started off his season in the Troytown last year and he had a very tough race over 3m in a bog at Navan. That must have left a mark on this son of Presenting who still ran well for a long way. Hopefully his much gentler return to action this season will allow him to put in a much better finishing effort this time around.
He was unfortunate to bump into Djakadam in the Thyestes at Gowran back in January on his next start and off 139 he was well beaten by the Mullins horse, but he was almost 20l in front of Goonyella in 3rd and Gallant Oscar in 4th, two very useful yardsticks. Burke also runs Sumos Novios, who is a lovely stamp of a horse no doubt, but he has to prove he belongs at this level and I believe that My Murphy has already proved he has a race of this standing in him. Hopefully that day is today and at 20/1 he looks well worthy of an each way interest.
STEVOS' SELECTION:2.55 LEOPARDSTOWN-MY MURPHY E/W 20/1
We are back at Kempton and Leopardstown on Sunday with more high class action in store. Sprinter Sacre will be out to prove he is really back to his best, though I am looking forward to seeing how Duke Of Medina gets on in the opener at Kempton as he was hugely impressive in winning his last start at Market Rasen. This is a big step up in class but any rain that falls will be in his favour and he could run well at a price if it is soft or worse.
However, the most valuable race of the day, and also probably the most competitive, is the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown where a bumper field of 28 go to post in the hope of capturing the 100k+ first prize. In such a big field there are a number of horses that a case can be made for, but the one I like is the Liam Burke trained My Murphy, who has run some very good races in valuable big field handicaps during the past year and he made a more than encouraging return to action over an inadequate 20f at Navan last time, staying on pleasingly late in the day.
He ran in this race last year, off a mark of 141, and he eventually finished a well beaten 9th. However, he started off his season in the Troytown last year and he had a very tough race over 3m in a bog at Navan. That must have left a mark on this son of Presenting who still ran well for a long way. Hopefully his much gentler return to action this season will allow him to put in a much better finishing effort this time around.
He was unfortunate to bump into Djakadam in the Thyestes at Gowran back in January on his next start and off 139 he was well beaten by the Mullins horse, but he was almost 20l in front of Goonyella in 3rd and Gallant Oscar in 4th, two very useful yardsticks. Burke also runs Sumos Novios, who is a lovely stamp of a horse no doubt, but he has to prove he belongs at this level and I believe that My Murphy has already proved he has a race of this standing in him. Hopefully that day is today and at 20/1 he looks well worthy of an each way interest.
STEVOS' SELECTION:2.55 LEOPARDSTOWN-MY MURPHY E/W 20/1
Friday, 25 December 2015
St Stephens' Day Selections
It is a bumper day of action, as usual, on the 26th of December with any amount of meetings and plenty of high class action to whet the appetite of racing fans on both sides of the Irish Sea. The King Gerorge is the highlight of the day at Kepmton and Don Cossack is the one they all have to beat. He is 9/4 which could look a big price if he produces his best on the day.
However, as regular readers will be well aware of I am not in the business of tipping up 9/4 favourites and thankfully there are a couple of much bigger priced horses that have caught my eye. I like the look of four horses at Down Royal, Huntingdon Wetherby and Leopardstown. You can read my thoughts and find out my selections below.
DOWN ROYAL
There is a quality card of action at Down Royal tomorrow and it is a meeting that Northern based trainers usually do well at. Court Jester is a 9yo son of Pushkin who has been lightly raced for his age. His trainer Mr Wilson is based but a stones throw from the track and this gelding has run well at this meeting in this race for the past three years.
He won it back in 2012 off 88, was 3rd in 2013 off 86 and was 3rd again last year off 97. He is back down to a mark of 89, Jody McGarvey overlooks Shabras Bertolini to take the ride (has rode Court Jester for both wins), and with track, trip and ground to suit he looks an absolutely massive price at 33/1 off a mark of 89. He looks well worth a small interest each way.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.00 DOWN ROYAL- COURT JESTER 33/1 E/W
LEOPARDSTOWN
There is another handicapper that has caught my eye at Leopardstown. C'est Notre Gris goes in the 1.50 and this 5yo son of Verglas looks primed for a big run with his stable hitting form and Jane Mangan taking off a handy 3lb. This handsome grey gelding was rated as high as 92 on the flat and he has had only 9 runs over timber, hitting the frame on 5 of those.
He made a very satisfying return from a break last time at Punchestown over 2m off 110, staying on well in the closing stages and shaping as if a couple of extra furlongs would be ideal. He steps up to 18f here and with the handicapper dropping him to 108 and Mangan taking off another 3lb he could be set for a big run. He looks well worthy of an each way interest at 20/1.
STEVOS SELECTION: 1.50 LEOPARDSTOWN- C'EST NOTRE GRIS 20/1 E/W
WETHERBY
There is no shortage of decent action across the water and there is a horse going in the opener at Wetherby that appeals for a number of reasons. Kalastar goes in the 12.35 and the first thing that caught my eye was the jockey booking. Hamilton is booked and takes off a handy 7lb. That doesn't look significant at first glance, but Alison Hamilton, who Kalastar's jockey is 5/27 for, has a runner, What A Night, and David Noonan has been booked for the hat trick attempt.
It seems to me that Kalastar's jockey would have had the pick of the two (he has ridden What A Night before) and he has plumped for the Katie Scott horse. He was sent off 6/4 fav for his last run and finished a well beaten 2nd but that was his first run back after a break and he will be a lot fitter tomorrow. He has been dropped 2lb to 93. Hamilton keeps the faith and if he handles the soft ground (his pedigree says he will) he looks to have a right chance at 10/1 and he is a confident each way selection.
STEVOS SELECTION-12.35 WETHERBY-KALASTAR E/W 10/1
HUNTINGDON
Of all my selections for Boxing day this is probably the most chancy one and that fact is reflected in this mare's price. Marey is 66/1 for the concluding bumper for Mrs Hugo and Irish jockey Robbie Dunne takes the ride. This 6yo mare is a daughter of the very useful national hunt sire Fruits Of Love, who is more than capable of producing bumper winners, but where it gets really interesting is when one delves into the dam side of his pedigree.
He is out of a dam called Mill Thyme, who was one of four siblings that all managed to win at least twice over hurdles. What sparked my interest is the fact that her half sister, Mill Emerald, has produced a couple of useful types, including Railway Zira who won a bumper on debut, as did her half brother Sir Vinski. Now there are a lot of dangers in this heat and stakes should be kept to a minimum. However, at her current odds of 66/1 surely she is worth a tiny interest each way in the hope that she is cut from the same cloth as Sir Vinski and Railway Zira.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.35 HUNTINGDON-MAREY E/W 66/1
However, as regular readers will be well aware of I am not in the business of tipping up 9/4 favourites and thankfully there are a couple of much bigger priced horses that have caught my eye. I like the look of four horses at Down Royal, Huntingdon Wetherby and Leopardstown. You can read my thoughts and find out my selections below.
DOWN ROYAL
There is a quality card of action at Down Royal tomorrow and it is a meeting that Northern based trainers usually do well at. Court Jester is a 9yo son of Pushkin who has been lightly raced for his age. His trainer Mr Wilson is based but a stones throw from the track and this gelding has run well at this meeting in this race for the past three years.
He won it back in 2012 off 88, was 3rd in 2013 off 86 and was 3rd again last year off 97. He is back down to a mark of 89, Jody McGarvey overlooks Shabras Bertolini to take the ride (has rode Court Jester for both wins), and with track, trip and ground to suit he looks an absolutely massive price at 33/1 off a mark of 89. He looks well worth a small interest each way.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.00 DOWN ROYAL- COURT JESTER 33/1 E/W
LEOPARDSTOWN
There is another handicapper that has caught my eye at Leopardstown. C'est Notre Gris goes in the 1.50 and this 5yo son of Verglas looks primed for a big run with his stable hitting form and Jane Mangan taking off a handy 3lb. This handsome grey gelding was rated as high as 92 on the flat and he has had only 9 runs over timber, hitting the frame on 5 of those.
He made a very satisfying return from a break last time at Punchestown over 2m off 110, staying on well in the closing stages and shaping as if a couple of extra furlongs would be ideal. He steps up to 18f here and with the handicapper dropping him to 108 and Mangan taking off another 3lb he could be set for a big run. He looks well worthy of an each way interest at 20/1.
STEVOS SELECTION: 1.50 LEOPARDSTOWN- C'EST NOTRE GRIS 20/1 E/W
WETHERBY
There is no shortage of decent action across the water and there is a horse going in the opener at Wetherby that appeals for a number of reasons. Kalastar goes in the 12.35 and the first thing that caught my eye was the jockey booking. Hamilton is booked and takes off a handy 7lb. That doesn't look significant at first glance, but Alison Hamilton, who Kalastar's jockey is 5/27 for, has a runner, What A Night, and David Noonan has been booked for the hat trick attempt.
It seems to me that Kalastar's jockey would have had the pick of the two (he has ridden What A Night before) and he has plumped for the Katie Scott horse. He was sent off 6/4 fav for his last run and finished a well beaten 2nd but that was his first run back after a break and he will be a lot fitter tomorrow. He has been dropped 2lb to 93. Hamilton keeps the faith and if he handles the soft ground (his pedigree says he will) he looks to have a right chance at 10/1 and he is a confident each way selection.
STEVOS SELECTION-12.35 WETHERBY-KALASTAR E/W 10/1
HUNTINGDON
Of all my selections for Boxing day this is probably the most chancy one and that fact is reflected in this mare's price. Marey is 66/1 for the concluding bumper for Mrs Hugo and Irish jockey Robbie Dunne takes the ride. This 6yo mare is a daughter of the very useful national hunt sire Fruits Of Love, who is more than capable of producing bumper winners, but where it gets really interesting is when one delves into the dam side of his pedigree.
He is out of a dam called Mill Thyme, who was one of four siblings that all managed to win at least twice over hurdles. What sparked my interest is the fact that her half sister, Mill Emerald, has produced a couple of useful types, including Railway Zira who won a bumper on debut, as did her half brother Sir Vinski. Now there are a lot of dangers in this heat and stakes should be kept to a minimum. However, at her current odds of 66/1 surely she is worth a tiny interest each way in the hope that she is cut from the same cloth as Sir Vinski and Railway Zira.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.35 HUNTINGDON-MAREY E/W 66/1
Sunday, 20 December 2015
Murray's Mare Worth Another Chance At Thurles
Rayvin Black ran a very flat race earlier on and it was a disappointing effort. He couldn't dominate the way he likes and the writing was on the wall a long way out. The handicapper should at least drop him a couple of pounds for that effort and he is not one to lose complete faith in yet.
Regular readers will be familiar with Princess Lir, who ran a cracker for the blog last time at Thurles when second to a Mullins hotpot that could turn out to be anything. She was available to back at 11/1 that day but she is a fair bit shorter for this contest.
She looks to have another short priced Mullins' horse to beat here. She gets over a stone in weight from Haymount though, and that could help swing the balance in her favour. She is nicely bred, out of Presenting and a half sister to the useful Master Neo and there is plenty of national hunt black type form on the dam side of her pedigree.
She is proven over course and distance, will relish the ground and Andrew Lynch keeps the faith. At 7/1 she looks a super each way bet and it is difficult to see her finishing out of the first three. Hopefully the weight makes all the difference and she can get a deserved win.
Across the water there is some low grade jumps action at Fakenham and the Sue Gardner yard has a couple of very interesting runners. They landed a lovely touch in a listed bumper at Ascot on Friday with the very useful looking Couer Blimey and I like her chances with Storm Alert in particular tomorrow. He ran an absolute cracker last time out behind Monbeg Gold and off the same mark of 95 he must have an excellent shout of a place at least at 13/2 if he takes to the track with his yard flying.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: 3.10 THURLES-PRINCESS LIR 7/1 E/W
12.50 FAKENHAM-STORM ALERT 13/2 E/W
Regular readers will be familiar with Princess Lir, who ran a cracker for the blog last time at Thurles when second to a Mullins hotpot that could turn out to be anything. She was available to back at 11/1 that day but she is a fair bit shorter for this contest.
She looks to have another short priced Mullins' horse to beat here. She gets over a stone in weight from Haymount though, and that could help swing the balance in her favour. She is nicely bred, out of Presenting and a half sister to the useful Master Neo and there is plenty of national hunt black type form on the dam side of her pedigree.
She is proven over course and distance, will relish the ground and Andrew Lynch keeps the faith. At 7/1 she looks a super each way bet and it is difficult to see her finishing out of the first three. Hopefully the weight makes all the difference and she can get a deserved win.
Across the water there is some low grade jumps action at Fakenham and the Sue Gardner yard has a couple of very interesting runners. They landed a lovely touch in a listed bumper at Ascot on Friday with the very useful looking Couer Blimey and I like her chances with Storm Alert in particular tomorrow. He ran an absolute cracker last time out behind Monbeg Gold and off the same mark of 95 he must have an excellent shout of a place at least at 13/2 if he takes to the track with his yard flying.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: 3.10 THURLES-PRINCESS LIR 7/1 E/W
12.50 FAKENHAM-STORM ALERT 13/2 E/W
Saturday, 19 December 2015
Saturday's Selection
Midnight Destiny was tardy at the start yesterday and that eventually cost her a place. She was bang there at the finish and it was a pity she didn't get a better start as I think she would have gone a lot closer with a decent start.
Reve De Sivola is the big story of the day as he tries to make history with a 4th win in the Long Walk Hurdle. It would be great to see the old boy do the business again but he won't have it easy with Saphir Du Rheu and Deputy Dan in opposition. It is a tough looking day for punters with most of the best horses waiting for the better prize money on offer over the Christmas period. However, there is one horse that I believe looks overpriced and he goes in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at 3.35.
Rayvin Black has been an admirably consistent performer for Oliver Sherwood and this 6yo son of Halling showed he belongs at this level with a superb effort behind Ebony Express in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last Spring. He was 2nd that day off a mark of 131 and when you add in the fact the ground was good to soft he deserves even more credit for that effort.
He returned to action this season with a decent effort in a listed hurdle when 10Lbehind The New One in receipt of 8lbs at Kempton on good ground. He followed that run with another admirable effort when conceding 8lb to Winner Massagot, who is among the market leaders for today's heat.
That effort came off a mark of 134 and the handicapper reacted by raising him 6lb to today's mark of 140. He is 3lb better off with the winner who was raised 12lb and on softer ground there is hope that he can turn the tables on that rival.
This 6yo son of Halling absolutely loves to get his toe in,and the conditions at Ascot will be right up his street. The verdict yesterday was that the ground was dead/gluey/hard work and that will be music to Oliver Sherwood's ears. This fella relishes a soft surface and has only failed to reach the frame on one occasion when it has been testing, and that was over 19.5f, a trip that stretches him. Now he has a couple of lengths to find with Winner Massagot but the weight difference should help in that regard. How Rayvin Black is 33/1 while the King horse is just 13/2 is beyond me and at that price he looks worthy of a little each way interest in what looks a wide open race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.35 ASCOT-RAYVIN BLACK 33/1 E/W
Reve De Sivola is the big story of the day as he tries to make history with a 4th win in the Long Walk Hurdle. It would be great to see the old boy do the business again but he won't have it easy with Saphir Du Rheu and Deputy Dan in opposition. It is a tough looking day for punters with most of the best horses waiting for the better prize money on offer over the Christmas period. However, there is one horse that I believe looks overpriced and he goes in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at 3.35.
Rayvin Black has been an admirably consistent performer for Oliver Sherwood and this 6yo son of Halling showed he belongs at this level with a superb effort behind Ebony Express in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last Spring. He was 2nd that day off a mark of 131 and when you add in the fact the ground was good to soft he deserves even more credit for that effort.
He returned to action this season with a decent effort in a listed hurdle when 10Lbehind The New One in receipt of 8lbs at Kempton on good ground. He followed that run with another admirable effort when conceding 8lb to Winner Massagot, who is among the market leaders for today's heat.
That effort came off a mark of 134 and the handicapper reacted by raising him 6lb to today's mark of 140. He is 3lb better off with the winner who was raised 12lb and on softer ground there is hope that he can turn the tables on that rival.
This 6yo son of Halling absolutely loves to get his toe in,and the conditions at Ascot will be right up his street. The verdict yesterday was that the ground was dead/gluey/hard work and that will be music to Oliver Sherwood's ears. This fella relishes a soft surface and has only failed to reach the frame on one occasion when it has been testing, and that was over 19.5f, a trip that stretches him. Now he has a couple of lengths to find with Winner Massagot but the weight difference should help in that regard. How Rayvin Black is 33/1 while the King horse is just 13/2 is beyond me and at that price he looks worthy of a little each way interest in what looks a wide open race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.35 ASCOT-RAYVIN BLACK 33/1 E/W
Friday, 18 December 2015
Destiny Could Await Shaw's Filly At Wolves
Nancy's Trix was outclassed at Ludlow for us earlier this week. She showed up well for quite a long way but when the race hotted up she just couldn't stay with the leaders, and trailed in 6th, beaten 18l. She is one to keep an eye on when sent handicapping, because she is certainly not devoid of ability and should be capable of winning a small race.
The national hunt action has been uninspiring this week as the majority of the best horses, from both big and small yards, have been put away for the festive period when the prize money is actually worth winning. King Kayf looks overpriced at 8/1 in the opener at Ascot and the form of his bumper 2nd at Newbury on heavy has worked out very well. He made a satisfactory reappearance when 2nd at Leicester and back on a softer surface he could go close.
However, at an even bigger price I like the look of a filly at Wolverhampton later on for the in form Derek Shaw yard. Midnight Destiny goes in the 6.40 and comes here on the back of a tame effort at Southwell last time when returning from a few weeks off. If she strips fitter for that effort she should have a right chance here off 51.
She is a 16 race maiden, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. However, she has had only 4 runs on an artificial surface and she has hit the frame on 3 of those. She is of definite interest on her only run over course and distance back in June, when she was beaten just over a length off a mark of 50. That was also a class 6 contest and the winner went on to win again off 6lb higher. She pulled very hard early on too, which makes the fact she got so close to the winner even more impressive.
Tony Hamilton is booked for the first time so a big run must be expected given that she has been mostly claimer ridden in the past. She has a good draw in stall 3 so hopefully something gives her a lead and Hamilton can get her settled early on and save a bit for the finish. There is no doubt that she has the ability to win a race, she just needs to put it all together on the day. At 16/1 she looks worthy of a small interest each way in the hope the return to Wolves and the booking of Hamilton works the oracle.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 6.40 WOLVES-MIDNIGHT DESTINY 16/1 E/W
The national hunt action has been uninspiring this week as the majority of the best horses, from both big and small yards, have been put away for the festive period when the prize money is actually worth winning. King Kayf looks overpriced at 8/1 in the opener at Ascot and the form of his bumper 2nd at Newbury on heavy has worked out very well. He made a satisfactory reappearance when 2nd at Leicester and back on a softer surface he could go close.
However, at an even bigger price I like the look of a filly at Wolverhampton later on for the in form Derek Shaw yard. Midnight Destiny goes in the 6.40 and comes here on the back of a tame effort at Southwell last time when returning from a few weeks off. If she strips fitter for that effort she should have a right chance here off 51.
She is a 16 race maiden, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. However, she has had only 4 runs on an artificial surface and she has hit the frame on 3 of those. She is of definite interest on her only run over course and distance back in June, when she was beaten just over a length off a mark of 50. That was also a class 6 contest and the winner went on to win again off 6lb higher. She pulled very hard early on too, which makes the fact she got so close to the winner even more impressive.
Tony Hamilton is booked for the first time so a big run must be expected given that she has been mostly claimer ridden in the past. She has a good draw in stall 3 so hopefully something gives her a lead and Hamilton can get her settled early on and save a bit for the finish. There is no doubt that she has the ability to win a race, she just needs to put it all together on the day. At 16/1 she looks worthy of a small interest each way in the hope the return to Wolves and the booking of Hamilton works the oracle.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 6.40 WOLVES-MIDNIGHT DESTINY 16/1 E/W
Tuesday, 15 December 2015
Don't Miss A Trick With Nancy At Ludlow
Going Concern went desperately close for the blog on Saturday and he likely traded very short in running given the way he travelled throughout the race. He flattered to deceive though, and once push came to shove he just didn't have enough left in the tank to go by the very gutsy winner. The handicapper will likely take a dim view of that excellent effort and another hike in the weights beckons.
The fare this week looks typically low on quality, though there are a couple of decent pots on offer at Ludlow tomorrow. The horse I am interested in goes in the novice hurdle at 3.10, and Nancy's Trix looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip and return to soft ground at Ludlow.
This 6yo daughter of Presenting has a lovely national hunt pedigree and her half brother Drumlister won his fair share of races for Arthur Moore back in the day. He was a point to point winner on soft and won on good ground under rules at trips ranging from 19f-22f. Her Old Vic dam is a half sister to listed and grade 3 winner Splendour, while their dam is a half sister to grade 1 hurdle winner Atone.
She is undoubtedly bred to be useful, and the manner of her point to point victory at The Pigeons suggests she has plenty of ability. The 2nd and 3rd home that day have both won points since, and she seemed to relish the soft underfoot conditions and the 24f trip, coasting home in dominant fashion 15l clear of the runner up.
She has had two starts under rules, both on good ground, and neither effort has been totally devoid of promise. She was sent off at just 7/1 in her only bumper run and faded into midfield after trying to make all. Her hurdle debut was a slightly better effort when she was upped to 19f at Doncaster, getting outpaced before staying on late for a well beaten 4th. That effort suggests the extra couple of furlongs will be a massive help.
She steps up to 21f tomorrow at Ludlow and she will be having her first rules run on soft ground. Now it is a very tricky looking race and a lot of the bigger yards are represented. The King horse in particular looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip too but she bombed out on her previous run on soft. The Skelton horse is also a short price but she has also yet to prove herself in testing conditions.
Her trainer, David Loder, isn't exactly a household name but he has trained a couple of winners from not many runners so he is capable of readying one. Useful claimer Ciaran Gethings also takes off a handy 5lb and at her current odds of 33/1 she looks well worth chancing each way for small stakes in the hope that the soft ground and step up in trip work the oracle.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.10 LUDLOW NANCY'S TRIX E/W 33/1
The fare this week looks typically low on quality, though there are a couple of decent pots on offer at Ludlow tomorrow. The horse I am interested in goes in the novice hurdle at 3.10, and Nancy's Trix looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip and return to soft ground at Ludlow.
This 6yo daughter of Presenting has a lovely national hunt pedigree and her half brother Drumlister won his fair share of races for Arthur Moore back in the day. He was a point to point winner on soft and won on good ground under rules at trips ranging from 19f-22f. Her Old Vic dam is a half sister to listed and grade 3 winner Splendour, while their dam is a half sister to grade 1 hurdle winner Atone.
She is undoubtedly bred to be useful, and the manner of her point to point victory at The Pigeons suggests she has plenty of ability. The 2nd and 3rd home that day have both won points since, and she seemed to relish the soft underfoot conditions and the 24f trip, coasting home in dominant fashion 15l clear of the runner up.
She has had two starts under rules, both on good ground, and neither effort has been totally devoid of promise. She was sent off at just 7/1 in her only bumper run and faded into midfield after trying to make all. Her hurdle debut was a slightly better effort when she was upped to 19f at Doncaster, getting outpaced before staying on late for a well beaten 4th. That effort suggests the extra couple of furlongs will be a massive help.
She steps up to 21f tomorrow at Ludlow and she will be having her first rules run on soft ground. Now it is a very tricky looking race and a lot of the bigger yards are represented. The King horse in particular looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip too but she bombed out on her previous run on soft. The Skelton horse is also a short price but she has also yet to prove herself in testing conditions.
Her trainer, David Loder, isn't exactly a household name but he has trained a couple of winners from not many runners so he is capable of readying one. Useful claimer Ciaran Gethings also takes off a handy 5lb and at her current odds of 33/1 she looks well worth chancing each way for small stakes in the hope that the soft ground and step up in trip work the oracle.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.10 LUDLOW NANCY'S TRIX E/W 33/1
Friday, 11 December 2015
Saturday's Selection
First of all, it was a decent effort from Buckled earlier to finish 3rd at Doncaster. He raced lazily at times and still looks to be learning the job somewhat. He seemed to tire in the closing stages and it will be interesting to see what trip Sandy Thomson tries with him next.
The run up to Christmas is a strange period in the racing calendar. The prize money at the weekends is decent but all the best horses have been put away for the big meetings over the Christmas. That being said there are a couple of half decent handicaps at Cheltenham tomorrow and I like one horse in particular at decent odds.
The 1.15 sees 13 go to post in a 2m class 3 chase with a nice prize of 18k for the winner. The one I like from an each way perspective is the Evan Williams trained Going Concern, who shaped very nicely on his last run here over course and distance. That was his second run of the season after a less than inspiring effort here back in October and he was raised a pound for finishing 3rd off a mark of 128. I think he will strip even fitter today and he could be set for a big run.
He has been raised back up to a career high mark of 129 after that last effort but this 8yo son of Overbury looks to be still on the improve and I think that mark is well within his reach. He travelled well the last day here when the ground was good but he just couldn't go the necessary pace to reel in the leaders. The softer forecast ground tomorrow should help slow the others down and this fella has already won on heavy ground so he won't mind it at all.
He is 3 from 9 over fences, will love the ground and proved he handled the Cheltenham hill last time. At his current odds of 14/1 he is a confident each way selection who will hopefully be placed at the very least.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.15 CHELTENHAM-GOING CONCERN 14/1 E/W
The run up to Christmas is a strange period in the racing calendar. The prize money at the weekends is decent but all the best horses have been put away for the big meetings over the Christmas. That being said there are a couple of half decent handicaps at Cheltenham tomorrow and I like one horse in particular at decent odds.
The 1.15 sees 13 go to post in a 2m class 3 chase with a nice prize of 18k for the winner. The one I like from an each way perspective is the Evan Williams trained Going Concern, who shaped very nicely on his last run here over course and distance. That was his second run of the season after a less than inspiring effort here back in October and he was raised a pound for finishing 3rd off a mark of 128. I think he will strip even fitter today and he could be set for a big run.
He has been raised back up to a career high mark of 129 after that last effort but this 8yo son of Overbury looks to be still on the improve and I think that mark is well within his reach. He travelled well the last day here when the ground was good but he just couldn't go the necessary pace to reel in the leaders. The softer forecast ground tomorrow should help slow the others down and this fella has already won on heavy ground so he won't mind it at all.
He is 3 from 9 over fences, will love the ground and proved he handled the Cheltenham hill last time. At his current odds of 14/1 he is a confident each way selection who will hopefully be placed at the very least.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.15 CHELTENHAM-GOING CONCERN 14/1 E/W
Thursday, 10 December 2015
Buckled The Bet At Doncaster
An awful effort from Our Brian earlier who was obviously just out for a trot judging by the wide course he took, and he didn't look too happy on the ground either. What a performance by Min though. It was hard not to be impressed and the way he jumped the last suggested there was a lot more in the tank. Hopefully some of you took the hint about Doctor Look Here who hosed up at 9/2 at Taunton. It is not my policy to put up short priced selections but I will mention the ones I fancy in my articles so make sure to pay close attention!
One of my favourite trainers had a nice winner today with Oscar Lateen and he is in superb form at the moment. Sandy Thomson is as shrewd an operator as they come and when I checked the prices for Friday I was gobsmacked to see Buckled priced up at 12/1 in the 1.20 at Doncaster.
This 5yo son of Midnight Legend has been brought along ever so slowly and showed bits and pieces of promise in his bumper runs. His failure to settle in his races has been holding him back as he has pulled very hard on occasion. However, last time out over 16.5f on soft ground at Newcastle he finally consented to race more evenly.He was held up out the back and given way too much to do, but he settled beautifully and stayed on very nicely when push came to shove in the closing stages into a never nearer 5th.
The manner of that run suggests that the step up to 2m3f should suit him well and Steven Fox, who rode last time, takes off a handy 7lb. His initial mark of 104 looks more than fair and he could well turn out to be a lot better than that now he has learned to settle. His dam is a half sister to the listed placed over hurdles Blaeberry who won over trips ranging from 16f to 24f. Good to soft ground should be ideal on pedigree but he probably wouldn't want to see too much rain. If Fox can repeat the rick and get him to settle again he could run a big race on his handicap debut at odds of 12/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.20 DONCASTER-BUCKLED 12/1 E/W
One of my favourite trainers had a nice winner today with Oscar Lateen and he is in superb form at the moment. Sandy Thomson is as shrewd an operator as they come and when I checked the prices for Friday I was gobsmacked to see Buckled priced up at 12/1 in the 1.20 at Doncaster.
This 5yo son of Midnight Legend has been brought along ever so slowly and showed bits and pieces of promise in his bumper runs. His failure to settle in his races has been holding him back as he has pulled very hard on occasion. However, last time out over 16.5f on soft ground at Newcastle he finally consented to race more evenly.He was held up out the back and given way too much to do, but he settled beautifully and stayed on very nicely when push came to shove in the closing stages into a never nearer 5th.
The manner of that run suggests that the step up to 2m3f should suit him well and Steven Fox, who rode last time, takes off a handy 7lb. His initial mark of 104 looks more than fair and he could well turn out to be a lot better than that now he has learned to settle. His dam is a half sister to the listed placed over hurdles Blaeberry who won over trips ranging from 16f to 24f. Good to soft ground should be ideal on pedigree but he probably wouldn't want to see too much rain. If Fox can repeat the rick and get him to settle again he could run a big race on his handicap debut at odds of 12/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.20 DONCASTER-BUCKLED 12/1 E/W
Wednesday, 9 December 2015
Brennan's Brian Looks A Big Price At Punchestown
A disappointing run by Tuesday's selection Rose Red, though it wasn't devoid of promise and I still believe there is a small race somewhere to be won with her. Thursday sees plenty of action on both sides of the Irish Sea and across the water Doctor Look Here should be there or thereabouts for the Gardners at Taunton. He is short enough in the betting though and I have my eye on a much bigger priced selection at Punchestown.
The 2m2f maiden hurdle at 2.25 is a foregone conclusion according to the bookies, and the Ricci/Mullins hotpot Min is a warm order at a best price of 4/7 at the time of writing. Chances are that this horse is a cut above his rivals here, but after a year off the track he is not one to be getting carried away with, especially in such a big field. The 2nd favourite, owned by Gigginstown, also has a long absence to overcome, even if he was impressive in winning his point.
However, at a much bigger price Our Brian looks a very interesting runner. He was campaigned only on quick ground in points, and he returned from a break in October to break his maiden at Tinahely in good style. He made his hurdling debut at Wexford over 16f a couple of weeks later, his first run on easy ground, and after getting outpaced he stayed on eyecatchingly in the last couple of furlongs to grab an unlikely looking 3rd. JJ Slevin rode that day and comes back across from England, where he is now based with the Twiston Davies' yard, to get the leg up on Our Brian again today. He also rode for his point to point win and he is a stylish pilot with lots of potential. He takes off a handy 7lb.
Now the worry with Our Brian is undoubtedly the soft ground, and by the time they line up for this race it is likely to be heavy. However, he didn't mind a slight ease last time at Wexford, and his sire Brian Boru's progeny generally relish a slog. He has an 11% strike rate on heavy and a 10% strike rate on soft, compared to just 6% on good to firm. If his influence wins out over the dam then Our Brian could be set to run a big race at very big odds for John Paul Brennan. Stakes should be kept low due to doubts about the ground, but at 33/1 he is surely worth chancing each way in the hope that he builds on the definite promise he showed last time.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.25 PUNCHESTOWN-OUR BRIAN E/W 33/1
The 2m2f maiden hurdle at 2.25 is a foregone conclusion according to the bookies, and the Ricci/Mullins hotpot Min is a warm order at a best price of 4/7 at the time of writing. Chances are that this horse is a cut above his rivals here, but after a year off the track he is not one to be getting carried away with, especially in such a big field. The 2nd favourite, owned by Gigginstown, also has a long absence to overcome, even if he was impressive in winning his point.
However, at a much bigger price Our Brian looks a very interesting runner. He was campaigned only on quick ground in points, and he returned from a break in October to break his maiden at Tinahely in good style. He made his hurdling debut at Wexford over 16f a couple of weeks later, his first run on easy ground, and after getting outpaced he stayed on eyecatchingly in the last couple of furlongs to grab an unlikely looking 3rd. JJ Slevin rode that day and comes back across from England, where he is now based with the Twiston Davies' yard, to get the leg up on Our Brian again today. He also rode for his point to point win and he is a stylish pilot with lots of potential. He takes off a handy 7lb.
Now the worry with Our Brian is undoubtedly the soft ground, and by the time they line up for this race it is likely to be heavy. However, he didn't mind a slight ease last time at Wexford, and his sire Brian Boru's progeny generally relish a slog. He has an 11% strike rate on heavy and a 10% strike rate on soft, compared to just 6% on good to firm. If his influence wins out over the dam then Our Brian could be set to run a big race at very big odds for John Paul Brennan. Stakes should be kept low due to doubts about the ground, but at 33/1 he is surely worth chancing each way in the hope that he builds on the definite promise he showed last time.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.25 PUNCHESTOWN-OUR BRIAN E/W 33/1
Tuesday, 8 December 2015
Rose Could Finally Bloom At Uttoxeter
Tomorrow's action is nothing to get overly excited about and it is the usual early week fare that I try to avoid. However, there is a horse that has caught my eye at Uttoxeter tomorrow and this 17 race maiden could be set for a big run. Rose Red, an 8yo mare by Weld, has gone close on a couple of occasions in her career and has shown that she definitely has the ability to win a race.
She went desperately close on quick ground over 2m here back in July, going down by a nose off a mark of 80 with jockey Jake Hodson taking off 5lb. She has been campaigned mostly on fast ground, which is understandable, as her half siblings were best on a decent surface and both won races for Rob Summers, who bred this mare himself.
However, she has had a few runs on an easy surface, and there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about her chances over 20f on soft ground. She had 4 runs in bumpers, all on soft, and she ran cracking races in the last two of them at Warwick, staying on very nicely and shaping as though an extra half mile would be ideal.
Her last run on heavy ground, at Sedgefield back in January 2014 over 17f off a mark of 86 (Best taking off another 3lb) was another encouraging effort. She was well beaten by the winner but stayed on very nicely again for 2nd, with a subsequent heavy ground winner (W Six Times) behind her in 3rd. She was a well backed 13/2 shot that day, which suggests that connections had an inkling that conditions were going to suit.
She races off a mark of 82 tomorrow, and her burden will be eased further by the claim of Charlie Hammond, who takes off another handy 7lb. Now often a young and inexperienced claimer on board would be a worry, but this young lad has ridden a 10/11 shot to victory for the good Dr Newland and if he is good enough for the Doc when the money is down, he is good enough for me. Rose Red will be effectively off a mark of just 75 and she is more than capable of scoring off that rating. If the step up in trip on soft ground suits she could definitely be in the shake up in what looks a very weak race. At odds of 20/1 she is worthy of a small and speculative each way punt.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.50 UTTOXETER- ROSE RED E/W 20/1
She went desperately close on quick ground over 2m here back in July, going down by a nose off a mark of 80 with jockey Jake Hodson taking off 5lb. She has been campaigned mostly on fast ground, which is understandable, as her half siblings were best on a decent surface and both won races for Rob Summers, who bred this mare himself.
However, she has had a few runs on an easy surface, and there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about her chances over 20f on soft ground. She had 4 runs in bumpers, all on soft, and she ran cracking races in the last two of them at Warwick, staying on very nicely and shaping as though an extra half mile would be ideal.
Her last run on heavy ground, at Sedgefield back in January 2014 over 17f off a mark of 86 (Best taking off another 3lb) was another encouraging effort. She was well beaten by the winner but stayed on very nicely again for 2nd, with a subsequent heavy ground winner (W Six Times) behind her in 3rd. She was a well backed 13/2 shot that day, which suggests that connections had an inkling that conditions were going to suit.
She races off a mark of 82 tomorrow, and her burden will be eased further by the claim of Charlie Hammond, who takes off another handy 7lb. Now often a young and inexperienced claimer on board would be a worry, but this young lad has ridden a 10/11 shot to victory for the good Dr Newland and if he is good enough for the Doc when the money is down, he is good enough for me. Rose Red will be effectively off a mark of just 75 and she is more than capable of scoring off that rating. If the step up in trip on soft ground suits she could definitely be in the shake up in what looks a very weak race. At odds of 20/1 she is worthy of a small and speculative each way punt.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.50 UTTOXETER- ROSE RED E/W 20/1
Saturday, 5 December 2015
Sandy Could Be Set For A Big Day At Kelso
What a run that was earlier from Highland Lodge. He did it the hard way from out in front and all the credit has to go to Jimmy Moffatt. It was a brilliant training performance to get this fella back to his best and he lead them on a merry dance throughout. His jumping was a joy to behold and he gave Henry Brooke a scintillating spin around Aintree. Hopefully you got on at 25/1 last night and earned a few quid to go into the Christmas slush fund.
There is some decent action on Sunday too, and one of my 'tricky trainers' could be set to have a red letter day at Kelso. Seeyouatmidnight has his second chase start and with his comeback run behind him he should strip a lot fitter. He gets 10lb from Silsol who beat him last time off level weights, and back up in trip he should be be able to reverse that form en route to bigger days in the Spring. Old boy Neptune Equester also has every chance in the 4 miler that he won last year, though it won't be easy off a 10lb higher mark.
The one I like though goes in the lucky last, a 2m6.5f handicap hurdle. Kilquiggan is having his 5th handicap start and he could be set to make an impact off his reduced mark of 93. This son of Vinnie Roe was sent off a well backed 4/1 on his handicap debut off 100, which would indicate he must have being showing a fair bit at home. That run came over 3m on good ground and it was a poor effort. He was well beaten in 5th but there was some encouragement to be gleaned from his next run here over 26f.
The ground was heavy that day and Kilquiggan ran a much better race to finish 2nd to Snuker, looking the likely winner a couple of furlongs out until he faded in the closing stages. The way he travelled and finished off his race that day would suggest that the drop back to today's trip will be ideal.
He made his seasonal reappearance on good ground over 3m at Ayr back in October and was never sighted. He would have needed that run though and hopefully it has blown the cobwebs away. The handicapper has dropped him to 93 and Steven Fox, who is a very capable claimer, takes off another 7lb. Off an effective mark of 86 with the ground and track in his favour Kilquiggan looks worthy of supporting each way at odds of 12/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.15 KELSO-KILQUIGGAN 12/1 E/W
There is some decent action on Sunday too, and one of my 'tricky trainers' could be set to have a red letter day at Kelso. Seeyouatmidnight has his second chase start and with his comeback run behind him he should strip a lot fitter. He gets 10lb from Silsol who beat him last time off level weights, and back up in trip he should be be able to reverse that form en route to bigger days in the Spring. Old boy Neptune Equester also has every chance in the 4 miler that he won last year, though it won't be easy off a 10lb higher mark.
The one I like though goes in the lucky last, a 2m6.5f handicap hurdle. Kilquiggan is having his 5th handicap start and he could be set to make an impact off his reduced mark of 93. This son of Vinnie Roe was sent off a well backed 4/1 on his handicap debut off 100, which would indicate he must have being showing a fair bit at home. That run came over 3m on good ground and it was a poor effort. He was well beaten in 5th but there was some encouragement to be gleaned from his next run here over 26f.
The ground was heavy that day and Kilquiggan ran a much better race to finish 2nd to Snuker, looking the likely winner a couple of furlongs out until he faded in the closing stages. The way he travelled and finished off his race that day would suggest that the drop back to today's trip will be ideal.
He made his seasonal reappearance on good ground over 3m at Ayr back in October and was never sighted. He would have needed that run though and hopefully it has blown the cobwebs away. The handicapper has dropped him to 93 and Steven Fox, who is a very capable claimer, takes off another 7lb. Off an effective mark of 86 with the ground and track in his favour Kilquiggan looks worthy of supporting each way at odds of 12/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.15 KELSO-KILQUIGGAN 12/1 E/W
Friday, 4 December 2015
Saturday's Selections
A gallant effort from Nail 'M today and at one stage I thought he was going to reel in the eventual winner. He stays all day and there will definitely be races to be won with him over extreme trips on bad ground. The quality rises up another notch tomorrow with top class action at Sandown and Aintree while there are some interesting sorts due to go to post at Navan too.
I like the look of Storm Alert at Chepstow in the 2.00, and he would be a fittingly named winner given the weather at the moment. He returned to something like his best last time out at Exeter when he bumped into handicap blot Monbeg Gold, who looks a very useful type. Storm Alert ran a gallant race and though he finished up being well beaten in 2nd he was almost 30L ahead of the 3rd horse home. That run came over 2m7f on soft ground and this fella loves to get his toe in.
He runs from a few pounds out of the handicap tomorrow but Lucy Gardner offsets some of the weight with her 3lb claim. However, his last win came off 110 so even though he is wrong at the weights in this race he is theoretically still well treated on his best form. He ran a good race on his first visit to Chepstow back in September on ground that was plenty quick for him, and that bodes well for his chance here. At 16/1 he looks well worth a small interest each way.
Aintree sees the return to action of Jer's Girl, who hacked up for the blog (adv 12/1 here) on her hurdling debut at Limerick. She steps up in class in the opener, a listed heat, but with Dicky Johnson booked it would be no surprise to see her get some black type. She is short in the betting though, and I am not in the business of tipping up 2/1 shots!
One horse that could run well at a price tomorrow is Highland Lodge, who has his first run for new trainer James Moffatt in the Beecher Chase at 1.40. He was rated as high as 143 over fences back in 2013 and his mark has slipped down to 125 after a poor season last year. He is another one that has to run from out of the handicap but there is no doubting that he has the ability to figure here off a feather weight.
He showed he can handle the Grand National fences when he got round in 8th in this race last year off a mark of 132, fading late on the good to soft ground. It will be properly soft for this years renewal and it would be no surprise if he has been trained with another crack at this race in mind. At odds of 25/1 it is worth chancing that Moffatt has sweetened this fella up. If he returns to anything like his best he is a potentially very well treated horse.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: 2.00 CHEPSTOW STORM ALERT 16/1 E/W
1.40 AINTREE HIGHLAND LODGE 25/1 E/W
I like the look of Storm Alert at Chepstow in the 2.00, and he would be a fittingly named winner given the weather at the moment. He returned to something like his best last time out at Exeter when he bumped into handicap blot Monbeg Gold, who looks a very useful type. Storm Alert ran a gallant race and though he finished up being well beaten in 2nd he was almost 30L ahead of the 3rd horse home. That run came over 2m7f on soft ground and this fella loves to get his toe in.
He runs from a few pounds out of the handicap tomorrow but Lucy Gardner offsets some of the weight with her 3lb claim. However, his last win came off 110 so even though he is wrong at the weights in this race he is theoretically still well treated on his best form. He ran a good race on his first visit to Chepstow back in September on ground that was plenty quick for him, and that bodes well for his chance here. At 16/1 he looks well worth a small interest each way.
Aintree sees the return to action of Jer's Girl, who hacked up for the blog (adv 12/1 here) on her hurdling debut at Limerick. She steps up in class in the opener, a listed heat, but with Dicky Johnson booked it would be no surprise to see her get some black type. She is short in the betting though, and I am not in the business of tipping up 2/1 shots!
One horse that could run well at a price tomorrow is Highland Lodge, who has his first run for new trainer James Moffatt in the Beecher Chase at 1.40. He was rated as high as 143 over fences back in 2013 and his mark has slipped down to 125 after a poor season last year. He is another one that has to run from out of the handicap but there is no doubting that he has the ability to figure here off a feather weight.
He showed he can handle the Grand National fences when he got round in 8th in this race last year off a mark of 132, fading late on the good to soft ground. It will be properly soft for this years renewal and it would be no surprise if he has been trained with another crack at this race in mind. At odds of 25/1 it is worth chancing that Moffatt has sweetened this fella up. If he returns to anything like his best he is a potentially very well treated horse.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: 2.00 CHEPSTOW STORM ALERT 16/1 E/W
1.40 AINTREE HIGHLAND LODGE 25/1 E/W
Thursday, 3 December 2015
Exeter Slog In The Mud Could Suit Nail 'M
This week has been a slow week on the racing front and the quality of the fare on offer hasn't been the best. Thankfully things are looking up tomorrow and there are some decent sorts in action at Sandown and Exeter. The horse that has caught my eye is Nail 'M, a 7yo son of Milan who showed last season that he is well suited by a slog. He goes in the 30.5F Marathon Chase at 1.40 at Exeter and the return to the forecast soft ground should suit this fella well.
He won back in March of 2014 over 26.5F at Sedgefield in a class 4 handicap chase off a mark of 110 and ran well on ground that was plenty quick enough over course and distance the following April of 2014 off 114. He was absent for over a year after that effort and made a pleasing return to action last month over 23.5f on heavy ground at Chepstow off 109.
He will surely strip much fitter after that encouraging effort and Nail 'M remains unexposed on bad ground over marathon trips. It wasn't stamina that beat him when he tried this trip previously here as he stayed on pleasingly into 4th place on good ground.
It is no surprise to see connections returning here again and they will be delighted that this time the ground is in his favour. It should slow the opposition down enough to allow him to get involved, and if he can minimise the jumping errors he must have a real chance of getting involved at the business end. At his current odds of 14/1 he looks worthy of a small interest each way back up in trip on ground he loves.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.40 EXETER-NAIL 'M @ 14/1 E/W
He won back in March of 2014 over 26.5F at Sedgefield in a class 4 handicap chase off a mark of 110 and ran well on ground that was plenty quick enough over course and distance the following April of 2014 off 114. He was absent for over a year after that effort and made a pleasing return to action last month over 23.5f on heavy ground at Chepstow off 109.
He will surely strip much fitter after that encouraging effort and Nail 'M remains unexposed on bad ground over marathon trips. It wasn't stamina that beat him when he tried this trip previously here as he stayed on pleasingly into 4th place on good ground.
It is no surprise to see connections returning here again and they will be delighted that this time the ground is in his favour. It should slow the opposition down enough to allow him to get involved, and if he can minimise the jumping errors he must have a real chance of getting involved at the business end. At his current odds of 14/1 he looks worthy of a small interest each way back up in trip on ground he loves.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.40 EXETER-NAIL 'M @ 14/1 E/W
Sunday, 29 November 2015
Sunday's Selections
After a disappointing effort from Houblon Des Obeaux it is back to the drawing board today. He never jumped or travelled and the writing was on the wall a long way from home. The best of today's action comes from Fairyhouse and there are a trio of Grade 1s at the county Meath course this afternoon.
I have written a detailed preview of the opening Juvenile Grade 3 which you can read here at the excellent Sportismadeforbetting blog.
The Royal Bond looks a tricky little heat and Willie Mullins holds a strong hand with the exciting Long Dog and the promising Bachasson locking horns and those two head the market. The Noel Meade trained Gunnery Sergeant looks like a viable alternative at 9/2 as he was in the process of running a big race before coming to grief at the 2nd last. If he can put in a clear round he could put it up to the Mullins pair at 9/2.
The Hatton's Grace looks a tricky heat from a betting perspective and again Mullins has the favourite with Arctic Fire. He also runs the unbeaten Clondaw Court who could represent a bit of value against the favourite at 15/2. However, at an even bigger price Snow Falcon is worth a second look. This 20/1 shot was only 5L behind Windsor Park in the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival and is guaranteed to get the trip on what will be dire ground at Fairyhouse. He showed he was in good heart with an easy win last time at Naas and could sneak into a place at 20/1.
The handicap at 2.10 looks a very tricky heat to decipher and I have had a speculative each way bet on Coolaghknock Glebe. Christy Roche has his string in fine form and if this fella puts in a clear round he shouldn't be too far away. Some bookies are paying 5 places in this race so at 12/1 he looks worthy of a small interest.
The final Grade 1 of the day is the Drinmore and there are some very promising types due to go to post in this one. No More Heroes looks short at 11/8 for Elliott and Cooper while there is a case to be made for Monksland at odds of 9/2. However, Shantou Flyer has done nothing wrong on his last few runs and looks a progressive type. He handled the step up to Grade 2 company with ease last time and showed he handled bad ground well. At 16/1 he looks overpriced and he could give the more fancied runners something to think about.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: 1.10 GUNNERY SERGEANT 9/2
1.40 SNOW FALCON 20/1 EW
2.10 COOLAGHKNOCK GLEBE 12/1 EW
2.40 SHANTOU FLYER 16/1 E/W
I have written a detailed preview of the opening Juvenile Grade 3 which you can read here at the excellent Sportismadeforbetting blog.
The Royal Bond looks a tricky little heat and Willie Mullins holds a strong hand with the exciting Long Dog and the promising Bachasson locking horns and those two head the market. The Noel Meade trained Gunnery Sergeant looks like a viable alternative at 9/2 as he was in the process of running a big race before coming to grief at the 2nd last. If he can put in a clear round he could put it up to the Mullins pair at 9/2.
The Hatton's Grace looks a tricky heat from a betting perspective and again Mullins has the favourite with Arctic Fire. He also runs the unbeaten Clondaw Court who could represent a bit of value against the favourite at 15/2. However, at an even bigger price Snow Falcon is worth a second look. This 20/1 shot was only 5L behind Windsor Park in the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival and is guaranteed to get the trip on what will be dire ground at Fairyhouse. He showed he was in good heart with an easy win last time at Naas and could sneak into a place at 20/1.
The handicap at 2.10 looks a very tricky heat to decipher and I have had a speculative each way bet on Coolaghknock Glebe. Christy Roche has his string in fine form and if this fella puts in a clear round he shouldn't be too far away. Some bookies are paying 5 places in this race so at 12/1 he looks worthy of a small interest.
The final Grade 1 of the day is the Drinmore and there are some very promising types due to go to post in this one. No More Heroes looks short at 11/8 for Elliott and Cooper while there is a case to be made for Monksland at odds of 9/2. However, Shantou Flyer has done nothing wrong on his last few runs and looks a progressive type. He handled the step up to Grade 2 company with ease last time and showed he handled bad ground well. At 16/1 he looks overpriced and he could give the more fancied runners something to think about.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: 1.10 GUNNERY SERGEANT 9/2
1.40 SNOW FALCON 20/1 EW
2.10 COOLAGHKNOCK GLEBE 12/1 EW
2.40 SHANTOU FLYER 16/1 E/W
Friday, 27 November 2015
Saturday's Selection
It is a Michelin Star quality menu of action on offer in the racing world tomorrow with a Grade 1 contest at Newcastle and the Hennessy at Newbury the main courses on what should be an exciting and informative day of action. The Fighting Fifth is the main attraction at Newcastle and you can read my in depth preview here at Bettingtools.co.uk.
The Hennessy is the big one though, and 17 are due to go to post in what looks a minefield for punters. The one I like at a decent price is Houblon Des Obeaux for Venetia Williams and Aidan Coleman. I backed him in it last year at 50/1 on his seasonal reappearance and he ran a blinder to be 2nd to Many Clouds off a mark of 157. He showed that effort was no fluke with decent efforts behind The Young Master and Coneygree on his next two starts but he faded badly on his last few appearances. He was well beaten in the Gold Cup and fell in the Scottish National.
However, every cloud has a silver lining and as a result of those poor efforts his mark has now dropped to a pound lower than he was last year. He has a run under his belt, an average effort behind Pendra at Ascot. One gets the impression that was just a pipe opener for this race, and surely this is the target after he ran such a big race in it last year. At odds of 14/1 this 8yo son of Panoramic should give each way backers a good run for their money at 14/1 with soft ground ideal.
STEVOS' SELECTION:3.00 NEWBURY HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 16/1 E/W (BETFAIR)
The Hennessy is the big one though, and 17 are due to go to post in what looks a minefield for punters. The one I like at a decent price is Houblon Des Obeaux for Venetia Williams and Aidan Coleman. I backed him in it last year at 50/1 on his seasonal reappearance and he ran a blinder to be 2nd to Many Clouds off a mark of 157. He showed that effort was no fluke with decent efforts behind The Young Master and Coneygree on his next two starts but he faded badly on his last few appearances. He was well beaten in the Gold Cup and fell in the Scottish National.
However, every cloud has a silver lining and as a result of those poor efforts his mark has now dropped to a pound lower than he was last year. He has a run under his belt, an average effort behind Pendra at Ascot. One gets the impression that was just a pipe opener for this race, and surely this is the target after he ran such a big race in it last year. At odds of 14/1 this 8yo son of Panoramic should give each way backers a good run for their money at 14/1 with soft ground ideal.
STEVOS' SELECTION:3.00 NEWBURY HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 16/1 E/W (BETFAIR)
Thursday, 26 November 2015
Siddall Could Strike For First Time With Never
An excellent run from Millanisi Boy earlier behind a horse that looks to be well above average. The front two pulled miles clear and hopefully the handicapper isn't too harsh on the Woollacott horse. There is decent action tomorrow as well, but the horse that interests me goes in a class 5 0-100 handicap hurdle over 19.5f at Doncaster and I think it is safe to say there are no potential superstars hidden in this field.
First of Never is a 9yo son of Systematic who remains a maiden after 22 starts under rules, not exactly a record that inspires confidence. However he has been placed in 5 of his handicap runs, and one of his better efforts came when he was a good 2nd in this race off a mark of 74, beaten just 2L on good to soft ground. His form dipped somewhat after that run though he did manage a remote 3rd here over 2m off 75.
He made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2m on heavy ground a couple of weeks ago and that should put him spot on for this. He is 3lb lower than last year's runner up effort and it would be no surprise if connections have laid him out to try and go one better this year. Kennedy rode him last year and takes the ride again. He will need to be at his best to get this fella home in front as he is a strong traveller that usually finds little off the bridle and his challenge will have to be timed to perfection.
As can be seen from the above there is a lot of things that will have to drop right for First of Never if he is to win, so stakes should be kept to a minimum. However, I am convinced this fella has a small race in him and tomorrow could be the day. At odds of 25/1 he looks worthy of a little support each way.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 12.45 DONCASTER FIRST OF NEVER 25/1 E/W
First of Never is a 9yo son of Systematic who remains a maiden after 22 starts under rules, not exactly a record that inspires confidence. However he has been placed in 5 of his handicap runs, and one of his better efforts came when he was a good 2nd in this race off a mark of 74, beaten just 2L on good to soft ground. His form dipped somewhat after that run though he did manage a remote 3rd here over 2m off 75.
He made his seasonal reappearance over an inadequate 2m on heavy ground a couple of weeks ago and that should put him spot on for this. He is 3lb lower than last year's runner up effort and it would be no surprise if connections have laid him out to try and go one better this year. Kennedy rode him last year and takes the ride again. He will need to be at his best to get this fella home in front as he is a strong traveller that usually finds little off the bridle and his challenge will have to be timed to perfection.
As can be seen from the above there is a lot of things that will have to drop right for First of Never if he is to win, so stakes should be kept to a minimum. However, I am convinced this fella has a small race in him and tomorrow could be the day. At odds of 25/1 he looks worthy of a little support each way.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 12.45 DONCASTER FIRST OF NEVER 25/1 E/W
Wednesday, 25 November 2015
Woollacott's Boy Could Build On Promise Of Last Run At Newbury
After a couple of poor day's of action earlier this week there is better fare on offer tomorrow. Some decent types will be on show on both sides of the Irish Sea and the horse that interests me goes at Newbury in the novice handicap at 1.35. This 20.5f contest will be run on testing ground and Richard Woollacott's Millanisi Boy will have no problem with the underfoot conditions.
This 6yo son of Kalanisi has been brought along ever so slowly and having shown definite promise in a couple of bumper runs he was campaigned exclusively in novice and maiden hurdles over the past year. He had 6 runs altogether and although he failed to get his head in front he showed enough ability to suggest he could win a race.
He made his handicap debut earlier this month over 23.5f at Exeter on heavy ground and travelled like the best horse in the race until the tank emptied in the closing stages. That trip maybe stretches him and the drop back to 20.5f looks sure to suit. His half brother Valoroso stayed 3m but he was by Laveron, and Kalanisi's progeny usually do better over a little bit shorter.
He was raised a couple of pounds for his last effort and races off a mark of 117. Daryl Jacob, who is 9/69 for the yard, keeps the faith and if Millanisi Boy strips fitter for his reappearance he is capable of hitting the frame at a rewarding price. Another one to keep a close eye on is the Sue Gardner trained Doctor Look Here who ran well for the blog last time. He could be worth a saver at 14/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.35 NEWBURY MILLANISI BOY E/W 18/1
This 6yo son of Kalanisi has been brought along ever so slowly and having shown definite promise in a couple of bumper runs he was campaigned exclusively in novice and maiden hurdles over the past year. He had 6 runs altogether and although he failed to get his head in front he showed enough ability to suggest he could win a race.
He made his handicap debut earlier this month over 23.5f at Exeter on heavy ground and travelled like the best horse in the race until the tank emptied in the closing stages. That trip maybe stretches him and the drop back to 20.5f looks sure to suit. His half brother Valoroso stayed 3m but he was by Laveron, and Kalanisi's progeny usually do better over a little bit shorter.
He was raised a couple of pounds for his last effort and races off a mark of 117. Daryl Jacob, who is 9/69 for the yard, keeps the faith and if Millanisi Boy strips fitter for his reappearance he is capable of hitting the frame at a rewarding price. Another one to keep a close eye on is the Sue Gardner trained Doctor Look Here who ran well for the blog last time. He could be worth a saver at 14/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.35 NEWBURY MILLANISI BOY E/W 18/1
Monday, 23 November 2015
Ship Could Sail Home At Sedgefield
Over the last couple of months I have been reluctant to tip up any horses running in the early part of the week. The quality is usually pretty low on Monday and Tuesday, though there were some decent types in action on the all weather at Cheltenham earlier today. However, there is a horse going at Sedgefeld tomorrow that may be overpriced and his Irish trainer, Paul Stafford, has a decent record with his British Raiders.
West Ship Master goes in the 2.50 at Sedgefield, a 3m2f handicap chase and the going is currently described as soft. This 11yo son of Oscar remains a maiden over fences after 24 starts but he showed on a couple of occasions last year that he has a small race in him. He was 2nd on no less than 5 occasions last season and those efforts came on ground ranging from heavy to good. His very best form has come with cut in the ground though, and he will have his ideal conditions on Tuesday.
He has had a couple of runs since his Winter break and his last run at Tramore on good ground over 22f was a step back in the right direction, even if he was well beaten in the end. His British mark is 12lb higher than his Irish one and he runs tomorrow off 95, with a very talented claimer taking off a handy 3lb. He was beaten just 1L off 92 (24f good) back in April so I believe this mark is not beyond him.
The extra couple of furlongs should be fine too, and indeed he was 4th off 101 over 25F on heavy at Fairyhouse back in 2011. His trainer was 4/21 with his British runners last year and he had a good winner at Fairyhouse when Lorna Brooke steered Moonlone Lane to victory in the Ladies Race. West Ship Master looks a big price at 20/1 and could be set to run a big race. He looks worthy of a small each way interest in what looks a pretty open race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.50 SEDGEFELD- WEST SHIP MASTER E/W 20/1
West Ship Master goes in the 2.50 at Sedgefield, a 3m2f handicap chase and the going is currently described as soft. This 11yo son of Oscar remains a maiden over fences after 24 starts but he showed on a couple of occasions last year that he has a small race in him. He was 2nd on no less than 5 occasions last season and those efforts came on ground ranging from heavy to good. His very best form has come with cut in the ground though, and he will have his ideal conditions on Tuesday.
He has had a couple of runs since his Winter break and his last run at Tramore on good ground over 22f was a step back in the right direction, even if he was well beaten in the end. His British mark is 12lb higher than his Irish one and he runs tomorrow off 95, with a very talented claimer taking off a handy 3lb. He was beaten just 1L off 92 (24f good) back in April so I believe this mark is not beyond him.
The extra couple of furlongs should be fine too, and indeed he was 4th off 101 over 25F on heavy at Fairyhouse back in 2011. His trainer was 4/21 with his British runners last year and he had a good winner at Fairyhouse when Lorna Brooke steered Moonlone Lane to victory in the Ladies Race. West Ship Master looks a big price at 20/1 and could be set to run a big race. He looks worthy of a small each way interest in what looks a pretty open race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.50 SEDGEFELD- WEST SHIP MASTER E/W 20/1
Saturday, 21 November 2015
Dromnea Can Take Troytown For Mouse
It was a poor run from Low Key at Haydock earlier and even though he was hampered he was weakening at the time and perhaps he was over the top after a long season. Tomorrow's selection goes in the Troytown at Navan and will appreciate the step back up in trip.
Dromnea is a horse I have been following ever since he lowered the colours of Champagne James at Fairyhouse back in January on bottomless ground (20f). That was the furthest this 8yo son of Presenting has won over but he has shaped on a couple of occasions that 3m would be well within his compass. There is hope in his pedigree too as his dam is a half sister to a 26f winner.
He stayed on well at the Cheltenham festival late on after being left with way too much to do (21.5f) and he again shaped as though he had plenty of stamina on his seasonal reappearance behind Rossvoss last week at Punchestown when beaten just 2L off a mark of 132.
He should strip lot fitter for that run and the fact he has had only 8 days to recover from that effort isn't too big a worry as he had only 13 days off between his two wins last season. His effort at Cheltenham came off 138 and I believe he has the necessary ability to win off his current mark of 132. At his current odds of 12/1 he looks a solid each way bet.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.40 NAVAN TROYTOWN CHASE-DROMNEA @ 12/1 E/W
Dromnea is a horse I have been following ever since he lowered the colours of Champagne James at Fairyhouse back in January on bottomless ground (20f). That was the furthest this 8yo son of Presenting has won over but he has shaped on a couple of occasions that 3m would be well within his compass. There is hope in his pedigree too as his dam is a half sister to a 26f winner.
He stayed on well at the Cheltenham festival late on after being left with way too much to do (21.5f) and he again shaped as though he had plenty of stamina on his seasonal reappearance behind Rossvoss last week at Punchestown when beaten just 2L off a mark of 132.
He should strip lot fitter for that run and the fact he has had only 8 days to recover from that effort isn't too big a worry as he had only 13 days off between his two wins last season. His effort at Cheltenham came off 138 and I believe he has the necessary ability to win off his current mark of 132. At his current odds of 12/1 he looks a solid each way bet.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.40 NAVAN TROYTOWN CHASE-DROMNEA @ 12/1 E/W
Saturday's Selection
Princess Lir ran a cracker on Thursday and it looks like she bumped into a pretty useful sort in Mystra. She travelled and jumped well and the front two pulled a mile clear of the remainder. There are races to be won with her though the handicapper could tale a dim view of her effort on Thursday.
Saturday sees some decent action on both sides of the Irish sea but it has to be said that some of the field sizes are a little disappointing. Vautour takes on just 4 rivals at Ascot and barring accidents he should be hard to beat, although it will be interesting to see how Ptit Zig gets on against the Mullins hotpot.
The one I like goes in the Betfair handicap hurdle at 2.25 and looks sure to be suited by the return to soft ground. Low Key represents the David Pipe yard who have won this race 3 times in the last 5 seasons. Tom Scudamore is booked to ride his other entry, but the booking of red hot 7lb claimer David Noonan catches the eye on Low key who has had only the 7 starts over hurdles.
He has won two of them, both during the summer and on good ground at Stratford (18.5f) and Fontwell (19f). The second win came off a mark of 129 by a short head and he was beaten less than 4l off his revised mark of 135 last time out at Kempton (21f good). In between those two runs he took a class 2 18f handicap on the level off 82 on good to soft at Newmarket and followed that up with an excellent effort in the Cesarewitch off 88 on good ground.
His previous flat win came on soft over 12f and he absolutely hosed up, never coming off the bridle. It seems he is at his very best with cut in the ground and conditions will be pretty testing at Haydock. His half brother Lightning Strike won a grade 2 on bottomless ground over 20f and with Noonan taking off 7lbs he has a light weight to carry. His 18f flat win shows that stamina won't be an issue and at odds of 25/1 he looks worthy of a little each way support off an effective mark of 128, 1lb lower than he was for his last win.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.25 HAYDOCK LOW KEY 25/1 E/W
Saturday sees some decent action on both sides of the Irish sea but it has to be said that some of the field sizes are a little disappointing. Vautour takes on just 4 rivals at Ascot and barring accidents he should be hard to beat, although it will be interesting to see how Ptit Zig gets on against the Mullins hotpot.
The one I like goes in the Betfair handicap hurdle at 2.25 and looks sure to be suited by the return to soft ground. Low Key represents the David Pipe yard who have won this race 3 times in the last 5 seasons. Tom Scudamore is booked to ride his other entry, but the booking of red hot 7lb claimer David Noonan catches the eye on Low key who has had only the 7 starts over hurdles.
He has won two of them, both during the summer and on good ground at Stratford (18.5f) and Fontwell (19f). The second win came off a mark of 129 by a short head and he was beaten less than 4l off his revised mark of 135 last time out at Kempton (21f good). In between those two runs he took a class 2 18f handicap on the level off 82 on good to soft at Newmarket and followed that up with an excellent effort in the Cesarewitch off 88 on good ground.
His previous flat win came on soft over 12f and he absolutely hosed up, never coming off the bridle. It seems he is at his very best with cut in the ground and conditions will be pretty testing at Haydock. His half brother Lightning Strike won a grade 2 on bottomless ground over 20f and with Noonan taking off 7lbs he has a light weight to carry. His 18f flat win shows that stamina won't be an issue and at odds of 25/1 he looks worthy of a little each way support off an effective mark of 128, 1lb lower than he was for his last win.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.25 HAYDOCK LOW KEY 25/1 E/W
Wednesday, 18 November 2015
Murray's Mare Could Go Well At Thurles
It is a pleasure to be writing this blog today after a superb win for Balnagon Boy at Fairyhouse earlier. When I awoke this morning and peeked out from behind the curtains you can imagine my excitement when I saw it was absolutely pissing it down outside. With bottomless ground a certainty my confidence in Balnagon Boy was enhanced, and I decided to head to the track to shout him home. He was sent off at 5/1, a more accurate price than the crazy 10/1 that was available last night, and he did it well, producing a fast jump at the last and putting the race to bed.
All the credit has to go to his trainer Tom Gibney, who is no stranger to success around Fairyhouse. This horse was out for almost 2 years having shown plenty of promise as a 5yo. To get him back to his best (if not even better) on just his second run back after such a long layoff was a marvellous training performance, and it was great to see his big white face coming home in front. Hopefully there is more to come from this handsome son of Hernando.
Tomorrow sees more decent national hunt action in Thurles, and the horse that catches my eye is the Adrian Murray trained mare Princess Lir. This daughter of Presenting has shaped with real promise on her last two runs, and her penultimate effort was particularly pleasing. It came over 20f at Ballinrobe on bad ground and she ran a cracker to be beaten less than 2L, herself and the winner finishing well clear of the 3rd. Ma Garrett was miles back and won her next two starts, although the ground was a likely factor in that one's performance.
Next time up over the same trip at Clonmel she was no match for the promising winner, but she was just 3L behind Blazing Tempo who she conceded 5lb to. That form was franked when Blazing Tempo won a maiden next time out, and what looked a pretty moderate effort at the time looks a lot better now. The Mullins horse will be a short priced fav, and he had a double at Fairyhouse earlier today. However, Princess Lir is fit, is guaranteed to like the ground and she is bred to get the trip (her half bro Master Neo won over 24f soft). I think 11/1 is a huge price and Murray had one placed at 100/1 in the opener at Fairyhouse earlier. She is a confident each way selection in what looks a pretty poor race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.55 THURLES-PRINCESS LIR 11/1
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| Balnagon Boy In The Parade Ring At Fairyhouse |
All the credit has to go to his trainer Tom Gibney, who is no stranger to success around Fairyhouse. This horse was out for almost 2 years having shown plenty of promise as a 5yo. To get him back to his best (if not even better) on just his second run back after such a long layoff was a marvellous training performance, and it was great to see his big white face coming home in front. Hopefully there is more to come from this handsome son of Hernando.
Tomorrow sees more decent national hunt action in Thurles, and the horse that catches my eye is the Adrian Murray trained mare Princess Lir. This daughter of Presenting has shaped with real promise on her last two runs, and her penultimate effort was particularly pleasing. It came over 20f at Ballinrobe on bad ground and she ran a cracker to be beaten less than 2L, herself and the winner finishing well clear of the 3rd. Ma Garrett was miles back and won her next two starts, although the ground was a likely factor in that one's performance.
Next time up over the same trip at Clonmel she was no match for the promising winner, but she was just 3L behind Blazing Tempo who she conceded 5lb to. That form was franked when Blazing Tempo won a maiden next time out, and what looked a pretty moderate effort at the time looks a lot better now. The Mullins horse will be a short priced fav, and he had a double at Fairyhouse earlier today. However, Princess Lir is fit, is guaranteed to like the ground and she is bred to get the trip (her half bro Master Neo won over 24f soft). I think 11/1 is a huge price and Murray had one placed at 100/1 in the opener at Fairyhouse earlier. She is a confident each way selection in what looks a pretty poor race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.55 THURLES-PRINCESS LIR 11/1
Tuesday, 17 November 2015
Balnagon Can Fire At Fairyhouse For Gibney
With the low quality of fare on offer early this week it has been difficult to find a horse worth backing. Thankfully things improve tomorrow, and there is a horse at Faryhouse that has caught my eye.
The Thomas Gibney trained Balnagon Boy goes in the Novice Chase at 2.45 and he looks to have a serious chance. He reappeared after a long injury layoff with an extremely promising run behind Arkle bound Sizing John at Punchestown. It was his first run in 22 months and he travelled supremely well for a long way.
He is a former point to point winner so chasing was always going to be the eventual plan, and he didn't disappoint with his jumping at Punchestown on his chase debut. He was low and quick over the majority of the fences, bar a couple on the far side when he missed a stride. He pinged the last two, which is always good to see, and with that experience under his belt he will hopefully jump even better on Wednesday.
He is a previous course and distance winner over the smaller obstacles and the recent heavy rain will be right up this son of Hernando's street. His best runs have come on a rain sodden surface and he will relish the conditions at Fairyhouse. The same can't be said for some of his more fancied rivals, most of whom have shown their best form on decent ground.
The trip is perfect, the ground will suit and he showed he retains plenty of ability with his comeback run. The only worry is the dreaded 'bounce' factor which can often occur when a horse is having its second run back after a long layoff. However at odds of 10/1 I am willing to take that chance and if he shows his best form it is difficult to see him finishing outside the first three. He looks well worth supporting each way in what looks a very winnable race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.45 FAIRYHOUSE-BALNAGON BOY 10/1 E/W
The Thomas Gibney trained Balnagon Boy goes in the Novice Chase at 2.45 and he looks to have a serious chance. He reappeared after a long injury layoff with an extremely promising run behind Arkle bound Sizing John at Punchestown. It was his first run in 22 months and he travelled supremely well for a long way.
He is a former point to point winner so chasing was always going to be the eventual plan, and he didn't disappoint with his jumping at Punchestown on his chase debut. He was low and quick over the majority of the fences, bar a couple on the far side when he missed a stride. He pinged the last two, which is always good to see, and with that experience under his belt he will hopefully jump even better on Wednesday.
He is a previous course and distance winner over the smaller obstacles and the recent heavy rain will be right up this son of Hernando's street. His best runs have come on a rain sodden surface and he will relish the conditions at Fairyhouse. The same can't be said for some of his more fancied rivals, most of whom have shown their best form on decent ground.
The trip is perfect, the ground will suit and he showed he retains plenty of ability with his comeback run. The only worry is the dreaded 'bounce' factor which can often occur when a horse is having its second run back after a long layoff. However at odds of 10/1 I am willing to take that chance and if he shows his best form it is difficult to see him finishing outside the first three. He looks well worth supporting each way in what looks a very winnable race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.45 FAIRYHOUSE-BALNAGON BOY 10/1 E/W
Saturday, 14 November 2015
Sunday's Selections
A decent day yesterday with Cogry running a cracker in 4th and Buywise just failing to get up in the big one. His usual couple of slow jumps cost him dearly and is testament to the huge engine he clearly has that he managed to get so close to Annacotty.
There is another quality day of action in store tomorrow with some quality horses to run on both sides of the Irish Sea. It is Morgiana day at Punchestown and Faugheen makes his eagerly awaited reappearance. Wiclow Brave, Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief also run, and it is a cracking little race. I won't be having a bet on it but I'll definitely be watching.
The Shloer Chase will get under way at 2.10 at Cheltenham and though the field is small it is stuffed with quality. Old boy Somersby is a fantastic horse and his form figures first time back read 131316 so he is capable of running well fresh. Sprinter Sacre just simply isn't the horse that he once was and I couldn't touch him at 3/1. Croco Bay has the benefit of a recent run and could run a huge race at big odds. Savello, the highly regarded Simply Ned and Mr. Mole complete the line up and if I had to give a selection I would take a chance on Croco Bay at a big price. He ran well here at the festival and loves soft ground.
The Greatwood looks as competitive as ever and looks to be a minefield for punters. The each way suggestion is Olofi, who won it back in 2012. He is a 9yo now and isn't getting any younger. However, he had been plying his trade at graded level in the main last season, and his run behind The New One here last December showed he still has a bit of ability. He ran poorly last time out off 134 but he would have needed it and the handicapper has dropped him to 132. He won the race off 136 so with his jockey Jamie Bargary taking off another handy 5lb he is effectively 9lb below that winning mark. He won't mind the ground and under more patient tactics he could run a big race at 33/1.
The 3.15 is another absolute minefield and any amount of them have chances. The horse I think could run well at huge odds is the Jeremy Scott trained Daveron, who will be partnered by talented 3lb claimer Matt Griffths. This 7yo son of Winged Love has won twice at Taunton and has yet to score anywhere else. However, he caught my eye in this race last year and he travelled well for a long way. The front four pulled well clear but Daveron stayed on nicely enough up the hill for 8th. If he can manage to stay a bit closer to the front rank in this years heat he could surprise a few people with a big run at 40/1.
STEVOS' SELECTONS: 2.10- CROCO BAY E/W 18/1.
2.40- OLOFI E/W 33/1
3.15- DAVERON E/W 40/1
There is another quality day of action in store tomorrow with some quality horses to run on both sides of the Irish Sea. It is Morgiana day at Punchestown and Faugheen makes his eagerly awaited reappearance. Wiclow Brave, Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief also run, and it is a cracking little race. I won't be having a bet on it but I'll definitely be watching.
The Shloer Chase will get under way at 2.10 at Cheltenham and though the field is small it is stuffed with quality. Old boy Somersby is a fantastic horse and his form figures first time back read 131316 so he is capable of running well fresh. Sprinter Sacre just simply isn't the horse that he once was and I couldn't touch him at 3/1. Croco Bay has the benefit of a recent run and could run a huge race at big odds. Savello, the highly regarded Simply Ned and Mr. Mole complete the line up and if I had to give a selection I would take a chance on Croco Bay at a big price. He ran well here at the festival and loves soft ground.
The Greatwood looks as competitive as ever and looks to be a minefield for punters. The each way suggestion is Olofi, who won it back in 2012. He is a 9yo now and isn't getting any younger. However, he had been plying his trade at graded level in the main last season, and his run behind The New One here last December showed he still has a bit of ability. He ran poorly last time out off 134 but he would have needed it and the handicapper has dropped him to 132. He won the race off 136 so with his jockey Jamie Bargary taking off another handy 5lb he is effectively 9lb below that winning mark. He won't mind the ground and under more patient tactics he could run a big race at 33/1.
The 3.15 is another absolute minefield and any amount of them have chances. The horse I think could run well at huge odds is the Jeremy Scott trained Daveron, who will be partnered by talented 3lb claimer Matt Griffths. This 7yo son of Winged Love has won twice at Taunton and has yet to score anywhere else. However, he caught my eye in this race last year and he travelled well for a long way. The front four pulled well clear but Daveron stayed on nicely enough up the hill for 8th. If he can manage to stay a bit closer to the front rank in this years heat he could surprise a few people with a big run at 40/1.
STEVOS' SELECTONS: 2.10- CROCO BAY E/W 18/1.
2.40- OLOFI E/W 33/1
3.15- DAVERON E/W 40/1
Friday, 13 November 2015
Saturday's Selection
Another cracking Saturday of racing in store this week as the action moves to Cheltenham for the Paddy Power Gold Cup. With plenty of other intriguing races to be held at the meeting too it promises to be a hugely informative meeting and no doubt there will be more than one festival winner in action on the day.
I have done an in depth analysis of the big race of the day and you can find it and my selection here at Bettingtools.co.uk. As regards the rest of the day it is a pretty difficult looking one from a punting perspective. The opener has some very interesting types with some powerful connections represented. I have no strong fancy but I was very impressed with Wolf Of Windlesham when he won on his hurdling debut and I will be eager to see how he gets on here.
The one I am backing tomorrow goes in the 1.50, a 27f handicap chase. Nigel Twiston Davies is a trainer that loves to have a winner around here, and he has a couple with live chances in the big one later on in the day. The one I like though is Cogry, who returns to action after his summer break off a mark of 136. This son of King's Theatre was highly tried when hurdling, running in Grade 1 heats at both Cheltenham and Aintree after winning two novices on heavy and soft ground.
The forecast rain will be right up Cogry's street, and his absence is no worry. Twiston Davies can get them fit first time up and indeed this gelding won on his first run of 2013 after a similar break. He won a handicap chase last year at Chepstow on desperate ground over 24f and he needed every inch of that trip. He ran with credit at the festival here in the 4 miler and was bang there until his stamina gave out in the last couple of furlongs.
Today's trip could well turn out to be perfect and there is a few hours of rain forecast before racing which will be in this fella's favour. His jockey, Ryan Hatch, is superb value for his 3lb claim so Cogry will be effectively only 4lb higher than he was for his last win. If he has strengthened up over the summer there could be a lot more to come from him, and if the rains arrive in time he will be there or thereabouts. At 14/1 he is a confident each way selection once the ground is at least soft.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.50 CHELTENHAM-COGRY E/W 14/1
I have done an in depth analysis of the big race of the day and you can find it and my selection here at Bettingtools.co.uk. As regards the rest of the day it is a pretty difficult looking one from a punting perspective. The opener has some very interesting types with some powerful connections represented. I have no strong fancy but I was very impressed with Wolf Of Windlesham when he won on his hurdling debut and I will be eager to see how he gets on here.
The one I am backing tomorrow goes in the 1.50, a 27f handicap chase. Nigel Twiston Davies is a trainer that loves to have a winner around here, and he has a couple with live chances in the big one later on in the day. The one I like though is Cogry, who returns to action after his summer break off a mark of 136. This son of King's Theatre was highly tried when hurdling, running in Grade 1 heats at both Cheltenham and Aintree after winning two novices on heavy and soft ground.
The forecast rain will be right up Cogry's street, and his absence is no worry. Twiston Davies can get them fit first time up and indeed this gelding won on his first run of 2013 after a similar break. He won a handicap chase last year at Chepstow on desperate ground over 24f and he needed every inch of that trip. He ran with credit at the festival here in the 4 miler and was bang there until his stamina gave out in the last couple of furlongs.
Today's trip could well turn out to be perfect and there is a few hours of rain forecast before racing which will be in this fella's favour. His jockey, Ryan Hatch, is superb value for his 3lb claim so Cogry will be effectively only 4lb higher than he was for his last win. If he has strengthened up over the summer there could be a lot more to come from him, and if the rains arrive in time he will be there or thereabouts. At 14/1 he is a confident each way selection once the ground is at least soft.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.50 CHELTENHAM-COGRY E/W 14/1
Tuesday, 10 November 2015
Another One To Keep An Eye On At Lingfield
Looking through the cards again tonight another interesting horse caught my eye. Kelsey is trained by Tom Lacey, whose horses have been running very well lately (at big prices too). This son of Robin Des Champs is out of a half sister to the super mare Mariah Rollins, whose son Pendra won a nice race at Ascot just a week or two ago.
Kelsey made his rules debut at Chepstow on good ground over a trip similar to today's and ran a poor enough race. It seemed he didn't really enjoy the good ground, and his action, as well as his pedigree, suggest he will relish plenty of give in the ground (as so many of Robin Des Champs progeny do). He was rather deliberate at some of the hurdles, but hopefully the first time cheekpieces can sharpen up his jumping. He was beaten a distance but was eased after a mistake two out once his chance had gone.
The ground will be heavy at Lingfield tomorrow, and it can get extremely testing at that particular track. Plenty of these are having their first outings after a summer break, and their fitness will be well and truly tested on the sodden turf. Kelsey has the benefit of a run under his belt and looks sure to improve for the different underfoot conditions. Interestingly enough he was entered at the sales last January and went unsold with an asking price of £50k. It suggests he must be pretty well thought of by his owners.
Now he is far from a confident selection, and stakes should be kept to a minimum for this bet. He is a massive price though, and Lacey's last 4 runners have form figures of 1263. The winner was a 14/1 shot and the 2nd and 3rd were 16s and 20s respectively. At 66/1 hopefully Kelsey can continue his excellent run tomorrow.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.00 LINGFIELD-KELSEY E/W 66/1
Kelsey made his rules debut at Chepstow on good ground over a trip similar to today's and ran a poor enough race. It seemed he didn't really enjoy the good ground, and his action, as well as his pedigree, suggest he will relish plenty of give in the ground (as so many of Robin Des Champs progeny do). He was rather deliberate at some of the hurdles, but hopefully the first time cheekpieces can sharpen up his jumping. He was beaten a distance but was eased after a mistake two out once his chance had gone.
The ground will be heavy at Lingfield tomorrow, and it can get extremely testing at that particular track. Plenty of these are having their first outings after a summer break, and their fitness will be well and truly tested on the sodden turf. Kelsey has the benefit of a run under his belt and looks sure to improve for the different underfoot conditions. Interestingly enough he was entered at the sales last January and went unsold with an asking price of £50k. It suggests he must be pretty well thought of by his owners.
Now he is far from a confident selection, and stakes should be kept to a minimum for this bet. He is a massive price though, and Lacey's last 4 runners have form figures of 1263. The winner was a 14/1 shot and the 2nd and 3rd were 16s and 20s respectively. At 66/1 hopefully Kelsey can continue his excellent run tomorrow.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.00 LINGFIELD-KELSEY E/W 66/1
Monday, 9 November 2015
Katie Worth A Punt On Pedigree
Jer's Girl did the business on Sunday with the minimum of fuss. While it was hard to believe she could be backed at 12/1 the night before the race, it was still a shock to wake up on Sunday morning and see her at 4/1. The yard obviously shared the same confidence as I did, and she was sent off a 5/2 favourite. She won in the manner of a useful type and connections should have plenty of fun with her this season. Gavin Cromwell is a brilliant trainer and any runner from his yard is worthy of respect.
Tomorrow's selection is not quite as confident a one as Jer's Girl, but at a huge price she looks worthy of a little support each way. Katabatik Katie goes in the 6.40 7f maiden at Wolverhampton for Ilka Gansera Leveque. Now while this trainer may not be well known to the casual racing fan she is well capable of readying one to win at a huge stats.; A pound on each of her runners in the past 5 seasons would see you with a healthy +£92 profit. When they win they win at big prices, and this vet turned trainer is yet to get a win this season.
Katabatik Katie has a really eye catching pedigree and her half brother Dasho won on debut over course and distance. She is a daughter of Sir Percy who has a 35% strike rate on the all weather and a 29% strike rate with 2yos. Her dam is a half sister to G3 7f winner Glowing and G2 placed Glaring, while their dam is a half sister to the brilliant Beat Hollow. It is a serious pedigree and at her current odds of 33/1 she looks worthy of a little each way support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 6.40 WOLVES-KATABATIK KATIE 33/1 E/W
Tomorrow's selection is not quite as confident a one as Jer's Girl, but at a huge price she looks worthy of a little support each way. Katabatik Katie goes in the 6.40 7f maiden at Wolverhampton for Ilka Gansera Leveque. Now while this trainer may not be well known to the casual racing fan she is well capable of readying one to win at a huge stats.; A pound on each of her runners in the past 5 seasons would see you with a healthy +£92 profit. When they win they win at big prices, and this vet turned trainer is yet to get a win this season.
Katabatik Katie has a really eye catching pedigree and her half brother Dasho won on debut over course and distance. She is a daughter of Sir Percy who has a 35% strike rate on the all weather and a 29% strike rate with 2yos. Her dam is a half sister to G3 7f winner Glowing and G2 placed Glaring, while their dam is a half sister to the brilliant Beat Hollow. It is a serious pedigree and at her current odds of 33/1 she looks worthy of a little each way support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 6.40 WOLVES-KATABATIK KATIE 33/1 E/W
Saturday, 7 November 2015
Cromwell's Filly Can Score At Limerick
Barwick never landed a blow in the big race yesterday, but it was nice to see old friend of the blog Litigant prove his Ebor win was no fluke. Tomorrow's fancy goes in the opening maiden at Limerick and looks to be way too big a price.
Jer's Girl is trained by Gavin Cromwell in Navan, County Meath and this 3yo daughter of Jeremy is of interest on the form she showed on her flat debut on heavy ground up in Sligo. She was sent off an unconsidered 33/1 shot that day, but she belied those odds with a cracking run in 2nd, less than 2l behind Xebec and closing all the way to the line.
Xebec has since gone on to score in a handicap off 84 and is now rated 87. Torcedor was a head behind her in 3rd and has gone on to win a handicap off 97 and was beaten a head in a listed heat at Leopardstown. He is now rated 101. The 4th home was subsequently 4l behind Curvy in a group 3 and is also rated 100.
Looking at that form it was disappointing that Jer's Girl couldn't make more of an impact on her next start at Navan, but the ground was good that day and she needs plenty of cut to be seen at her best. She gets that at Limerick tomorrow, and Cromwell looks to have found a very winnable race for her on her hurdling debut. She is highly thought of by connections, and at 12/1 looks well worth supporting in the hope that she can rediscover the form of her debut run back on a more suitable surface.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 12.20 LIMERICK-JER'S GIRL 12/1
Jer's Girl is trained by Gavin Cromwell in Navan, County Meath and this 3yo daughter of Jeremy is of interest on the form she showed on her flat debut on heavy ground up in Sligo. She was sent off an unconsidered 33/1 shot that day, but she belied those odds with a cracking run in 2nd, less than 2l behind Xebec and closing all the way to the line.
Xebec has since gone on to score in a handicap off 84 and is now rated 87. Torcedor was a head behind her in 3rd and has gone on to win a handicap off 97 and was beaten a head in a listed heat at Leopardstown. He is now rated 101. The 4th home was subsequently 4l behind Curvy in a group 3 and is also rated 100.
Looking at that form it was disappointing that Jer's Girl couldn't make more of an impact on her next start at Navan, but the ground was good that day and she needs plenty of cut to be seen at her best. She gets that at Limerick tomorrow, and Cromwell looks to have found a very winnable race for her on her hurdling debut. She is highly thought of by connections, and at 12/1 looks well worth supporting in the hope that she can rediscover the form of her debut run back on a more suitable surface.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 12.20 LIMERICK-JER'S GIRL 12/1
Friday, 6 November 2015
Barwick Can Bounce Back At Doncaster
A cracking effort from Empresario at Musselburgh on Friday. He was available to back at 28/1 with some firms during the day which was very surprising as I believed 14s was too big! He was eventually sent off at 20s and he was taken on for the lead by the eventual winner (he looks a serious horse by the way) after about a mile.
They went lickety split from the outset, and the front two had the vast majority of the field in trouble a fair way out. He was passed for 2nd in the final furlong but kept on well to hold 3rd. With an easier lead he can win off that mark, but the winner, Village Vic, looks a very exciting prospect.
Tomorrow sees some top class jumps action at Aintree but the horse that has caught my eye goes in the big flat race of the day, The November Handicap at Doncaster. Barwick gets in off a mark of 87 with talented claimer Tom Marquand taking off another handy 3lb. He went close off this mark on his penultimate run at Ascot over 12f. He ran arguably even better off 89 at Epsom back in June in a class 2 handicap when, with a clearer run, he would have surely finished closer than the 3L he was beaten by in the end.
Soft ground holds no fears, as his last win came at Epsom over 12f on heavy. He has been lightly enough campaigned this year, and looks as though he might have been laid out for this race. He was stepped up to 14f last time out but that trip is too far and a line needs to be put through that poor effort. He was put away after that and has been freshened up with a nice 85 day break. This will only be his 6th start of the season and at odds of 33/1 he looks worthy of a little each way support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.30 DONCASTER: BARWICK E/W 33/1
They went lickety split from the outset, and the front two had the vast majority of the field in trouble a fair way out. He was passed for 2nd in the final furlong but kept on well to hold 3rd. With an easier lead he can win off that mark, but the winner, Village Vic, looks a very exciting prospect.
Tomorrow sees some top class jumps action at Aintree but the horse that has caught my eye goes in the big flat race of the day, The November Handicap at Doncaster. Barwick gets in off a mark of 87 with talented claimer Tom Marquand taking off another handy 3lb. He went close off this mark on his penultimate run at Ascot over 12f. He ran arguably even better off 89 at Epsom back in June in a class 2 handicap when, with a clearer run, he would have surely finished closer than the 3L he was beaten by in the end.
Soft ground holds no fears, as his last win came at Epsom over 12f on heavy. He has been lightly enough campaigned this year, and looks as though he might have been laid out for this race. He was stepped up to 14f last time out but that trip is too far and a line needs to be put through that poor effort. He was put away after that and has been freshened up with a nice 85 day break. This will only be his 6th start of the season and at odds of 33/1 he looks worthy of a little each way support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.30 DONCASTER: BARWICK E/W 33/1
Thursday, 5 November 2015
Irish Raider Looks Interesting At Musselburgh
Barenice was supported in the market yesterday and was sent off at just 10/1, He didn't make the frame though and looked badly in need of the run. He travelled well for a long way and it certainly wasn't a run devoid of promise. One for the notebook and another day.
Tomorrow there is some decent national hunt action in the UK, and the horse that catches my eye is Empresario, a 6yo gelding I tipped up to win at the Galway festival (here) at a very nice price. That was a brilliant display, and the form stands up to scrutiny.
Guitar Pete was 2l behind in 2nd that day (in receipt of 4lb from Empresario), and he subsequently got to within a nose of Shadow Catcher, who ran well behind P'tit Zig last weekend in the Grade 2 Powers Chase at Down Royal. Hash Brown was a further 6l back (off level weights) and he won a handicap off 121 last week.
On a literal reading of the Guitar Pete form Empresario looks to be a few pounds well in (Shadow Catcher earned an Official Rating of 133 for that Down Royal Run) off his British mark of 128. Now admittedly he hasn't run well on his two runs since Galway, but the first run came on soft and he is much better on decent ground, which he gets today.
He is reunited with Mark Enright for the first time since that Galway win and Matthew Smith had a runner go close at Musselburgh on Thursday. He has been given a nice little 41 day break since his last poor run in Navan. He has won one and been placed on four of his eight chase starts, and as a 6yo he surely has scope for further progress over fences. If the rain stays away and the going remains good then Empresario looks sure to make a bold bid to give his young Co.Meath trainer his first overseas winner.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.30 MUSSELBURGH EMPRESARIO 14/1
Tomorrow there is some decent national hunt action in the UK, and the horse that catches my eye is Empresario, a 6yo gelding I tipped up to win at the Galway festival (here) at a very nice price. That was a brilliant display, and the form stands up to scrutiny.
Guitar Pete was 2l behind in 2nd that day (in receipt of 4lb from Empresario), and he subsequently got to within a nose of Shadow Catcher, who ran well behind P'tit Zig last weekend in the Grade 2 Powers Chase at Down Royal. Hash Brown was a further 6l back (off level weights) and he won a handicap off 121 last week.
On a literal reading of the Guitar Pete form Empresario looks to be a few pounds well in (Shadow Catcher earned an Official Rating of 133 for that Down Royal Run) off his British mark of 128. Now admittedly he hasn't run well on his two runs since Galway, but the first run came on soft and he is much better on decent ground, which he gets today.
He is reunited with Mark Enright for the first time since that Galway win and Matthew Smith had a runner go close at Musselburgh on Thursday. He has been given a nice little 41 day break since his last poor run in Navan. He has won one and been placed on four of his eight chase starts, and as a 6yo he surely has scope for further progress over fences. If the rain stays away and the going remains good then Empresario looks sure to make a bold bid to give his young Co.Meath trainer his first overseas winner.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.30 MUSSELBURGH EMPRESARIO 14/1
Hales Could Strike At Towcester
Well after the run from yesterday's selection surely things can't get any worse today. Shaft of Light ran a stinker, and my hopes that he would love the ground proved way off the mark. Let's hope today's selection puts up a better show.
The horse that has caught my eye is Barenice, trained by Alex Hales and ridden by Daryl Jacob. This French bred gelding is by Red Denham (sire of Ouzbeck among others) and is out of a half sister to the very useful but ill fated Pride of Dulcote. His half brother Sarenice has won a couple of hurdles on varying ground, while his sister won in France. There is plenty of hope in his pedigree and he has already shown he has ability in his point to point run (2nd sent off 7/4 fav).
He was bought by Tom Malone at the sales for £22k and he has an excellent eye for a horse. Alex Hales has been tasked with training the gelding for his new owners, and he is a trainer well capable of readying one first time out. Jacob was 2/6 for the yard last year and rode Gilzean to win on his seasonal reappearance last December for Hales. His fitness has to be taken on trust, but if Barenice is revved up and ready to go he could well run a big race at rewarding odds.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.20 TOWCESTER-BARENICE @ 20/1 E/W
The horse that has caught my eye is Barenice, trained by Alex Hales and ridden by Daryl Jacob. This French bred gelding is by Red Denham (sire of Ouzbeck among others) and is out of a half sister to the very useful but ill fated Pride of Dulcote. His half brother Sarenice has won a couple of hurdles on varying ground, while his sister won in France. There is plenty of hope in his pedigree and he has already shown he has ability in his point to point run (2nd sent off 7/4 fav).
He was bought by Tom Malone at the sales for £22k and he has an excellent eye for a horse. Alex Hales has been tasked with training the gelding for his new owners, and he is a trainer well capable of readying one first time out. Jacob was 2/6 for the yard last year and rode Gilzean to win on his seasonal reappearance last December for Hales. His fitness has to be taken on trust, but if Barenice is revved up and ready to go he could well run a big race at rewarding odds.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 1.20 TOWCESTER-BARENICE @ 20/1 E/W
Tuesday, 3 November 2015
Light Could Shine At Nottingham
A cracking run from yesterday's selection Doctor Look Here (adv 16/1) at Exeter to finish runner up. He perhaps got there a little bit too soon under Lucy Gardner, but he was travelling so well it is difficult to blame the jockey for making her move when she did. He loved the ground and he is well capable of winning off a mark in the low 100s.
Tomorrow sees national hunt racing action at Chepstow, Warwick and Fairyhouse, but the horse I like is going on the flat at Nottingham. Shaft Of Light is a 4yo gelding trained by Derek Shaw and he is a brother to stable star Top Boy.
He has only had the one win in 13 starts, on the all weather back in December of last year, and he looks pretty exposed on that surface. However, he has had only two starts on turf, which is rather puzzling given his brother's exploits on soft ground. He has had only one start on turf this year, all the way back in April on his penultimate run on good to soft over 5f at Catterick and he shaped with definite promise.
He was very slowly away and was a good 4 lengths behind the field coming into the final 2 furlongs. He stayed on strongly though and ended up 7th of 15, just 5L behind the winner. He was given a break after that run, and claimer ridden he was very slowly away and never counted on his return at Wolves. However, Tony Hamilton has been booked this time and his record of 5/24 (3/12 this season) for Shaw suggests a better run is expected at Nottingham on Shaft Of Light's first ever run on properly soft ground. If he is anything like his brother he'll love it and he is worth chancing e/w at odds of 22/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.30 NOTTINGHAM-SHAFT OF LIGHT E/W 22/1
Tomorrow sees national hunt racing action at Chepstow, Warwick and Fairyhouse, but the horse I like is going on the flat at Nottingham. Shaft Of Light is a 4yo gelding trained by Derek Shaw and he is a brother to stable star Top Boy.
He has only had the one win in 13 starts, on the all weather back in December of last year, and he looks pretty exposed on that surface. However, he has had only two starts on turf, which is rather puzzling given his brother's exploits on soft ground. He has had only one start on turf this year, all the way back in April on his penultimate run on good to soft over 5f at Catterick and he shaped with definite promise.
He was very slowly away and was a good 4 lengths behind the field coming into the final 2 furlongs. He stayed on strongly though and ended up 7th of 15, just 5L behind the winner. He was given a break after that run, and claimer ridden he was very slowly away and never counted on his return at Wolves. However, Tony Hamilton has been booked this time and his record of 5/24 (3/12 this season) for Shaw suggests a better run is expected at Nottingham on Shaft Of Light's first ever run on properly soft ground. If he is anything like his brother he'll love it and he is worth chancing e/w at odds of 22/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.30 NOTTINGHAM-SHAFT OF LIGHT E/W 22/1
Monday, 2 November 2015
Doctor Worth A Look On Handicap Debut At Exeter
There is some surprisingly decent fare on action for a Tuesday tomorrow, and the Haldon Cup at Exeter has been well supported by some powerful yards. Sire De Grugy makes his seasonal reappearance off top weight and it will be very interesting to see how he jumps. I don't see much value in the markets for the race and I am planning on just watching and enjoying.
One horse I do think looks a tad overpriced is Doctor Look Here in the concluding handicap. This son of Dr Massini is making his handicap debut having shown plenty of promise in his outings in bumpers and in maiden hurdles. He has stayed on well at the finish on a couple of those runs and the testing 2m2f at Exeter should suit him well.
His run in a Wincanton bumper last December was his best effort by far,and the subsequent efforts of horses he finished ahead of that day suggest he could be well treated off an initial mark of 100. He was a length ahead of Do We Like Him who has since won a handicap off 103, and Miss Serious was almost 4L behind the selection (in receipt of 2lbs) and she has won two novice hurdles and followed up in a handicap off 123.
He also has a bit of form at Exeter, and he showed he handled the track well behind Sternrubin back in May. That effort came on good ground, and pedigree suggests that Doctor Look Here will come into his own on a softer surface, which he gets today. Lucy Gardner takes off another handy 3lbs and if the horse is fit and ready to go it will be disappointing if he can't make an impact in a race that looks pretty low on quality. At 16/1 he is worthy of a little each way support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.20 EXETER-DOCTOR LOOK HERE E/W 16/1
One horse I do think looks a tad overpriced is Doctor Look Here in the concluding handicap. This son of Dr Massini is making his handicap debut having shown plenty of promise in his outings in bumpers and in maiden hurdles. He has stayed on well at the finish on a couple of those runs and the testing 2m2f at Exeter should suit him well.
His run in a Wincanton bumper last December was his best effort by far,and the subsequent efforts of horses he finished ahead of that day suggest he could be well treated off an initial mark of 100. He was a length ahead of Do We Like Him who has since won a handicap off 103, and Miss Serious was almost 4L behind the selection (in receipt of 2lbs) and she has won two novice hurdles and followed up in a handicap off 123.
He also has a bit of form at Exeter, and he showed he handled the track well behind Sternrubin back in May. That effort came on good ground, and pedigree suggests that Doctor Look Here will come into his own on a softer surface, which he gets today. Lucy Gardner takes off another handy 3lbs and if the horse is fit and ready to go it will be disappointing if he can't make an impact in a race that looks pretty low on quality. At 16/1 he is worthy of a little each way support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.20 EXETER-DOCTOR LOOK HERE E/W 16/1
Melbourne Cup Selections
In the early hours of Tuesday morning (4AM UK time) the race that stops a nation will be run at Flemington in Australia. The Melbourne Cup is a Grade 1 Handicap that trainers across the world dream of winning. Dermot Weld was the first European to make the trek down under with Vintage Crop back in 1993, and he repeated the trick with Media Puzzle nine years later. Weld was a trailblazer and now it is the rule rather than the exception for some of Europe's top stayers to take their chance in this hugely valuable race.
This year there are plenty of challengers from this side of the world, with Willie Mullins, Aidan O'Brien, Ed Dunlop, Michael Stoute and Saeed Bin Suroor all sending horses to take part. There has been a bit of rain around and the ground at Flemington is currently described as good to soft. One horse that will definitely appreciate a bit of cut in the ground is the Godolphin owned and Bin Suroor trained Sky Hunter.
This son of Motivator was last seen in a Group 3 at Newbury when he produced an excellent run over 11f to finish 2nd to The Corsican. He was beaten less than 2L but was giving his rival 8lb in weight so it is a run that deserves to be marked up. His previous run, in Meydan, saw him land a Group 2 over 12f, and previous to that he absolutely hacked up in a Group 3 on soft over the same trip at Newbury.
He has yet to score at further than 12f, but his only try over further came on really quick ground and the surface today will suit him a lot better. He carries just 8-7 for this race and will feel like he is running loose after carrying a stone more last time out. His dam was best over 12f, but her half brother won over 16f on the flat and his own half brother Highest was second in a St Leger. He should stay, the ground is perfect and he has an excellent draw in stall 7. At 40/1 he looks well worthy of a little each way support.
Another horse that has caught my eye at a huge price is the less fancied of the two Japanese runners. Hokko Brave has form in some of Japan's best staying races, and wasn't all that far behind likely favourite when they met in Kyoto back in May. Fame Game was runner up and Hokko Brave came sixth, just over a length behind Fame Game. That race was run off level weights though, and Hokko Brave gets 4lb from that rival today.
The worries are the ground as he is unproven with cut, and his draw could definitely been better than stall 20. However, top Aussie pilot Craig Williams has been booked and the forecast suggests that the ground might dry out a little bit before the race gets under way. His connections are bullish about his chances and seemingly he has been working very well at his Australian base. He will need a lot of luck in running from his wide draw, but if Williams can work his magic then Hokko Brave could run a big race at odds of 40/1.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: MELBOURNE CUP: SKY HUNTER E/W 40/1
HOKKO BRAVE E/W 40/1
Saturday, 31 October 2015
Tricky Trainer Could Score At Huntingdon
Sandy Thomson struck with Blue Kascade on Friday and is the first of the four tricky trainers to follow (see here) to get a win on the board. Tomorrow sees a big drop in the quality of fare on offer after the glitz and glamour of The Breeders Cup last night (what a run by Found!), but Ben Case has a couple of interesting runners at Huntingdon and one of them could run well at a very big price.
Petrou makes his hurdling debut in the class 4 2m 3f novice contest at 2.55. This 5yo son of Mountain High has only had two runs, coming in bumpers at the tail end of last season. He showed clear signs of promise on both occasions, particularly first time out when he finished 8L ahead of Towering, a subsequent novice hurdle winner who recently won a handicap off 120.
He is bred to appreciate this longer trip, his half brothers Shanpallas and Clash Duff both needed a trip to be seen to best effect. Daryl Jacob is booked (7/50 for Ben Case last season) and Case has an excellent strike rate with his hurdlers at Huntingdon (7/29). Now obviously plenty has to be taken on trust with this horse, but if Case has him fit and ready to rock for his hurdling debut he could well run a nice race at 25/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.55 HUNTINGDON-PETROU E/W 25/1
Petrou makes his hurdling debut in the class 4 2m 3f novice contest at 2.55. This 5yo son of Mountain High has only had two runs, coming in bumpers at the tail end of last season. He showed clear signs of promise on both occasions, particularly first time out when he finished 8L ahead of Towering, a subsequent novice hurdle winner who recently won a handicap off 120.
He is bred to appreciate this longer trip, his half brothers Shanpallas and Clash Duff both needed a trip to be seen to best effect. Daryl Jacob is booked (7/50 for Ben Case last season) and Case has an excellent strike rate with his hurdlers at Huntingdon (7/29). Now obviously plenty has to be taken on trust with this horse, but if Case has him fit and ready to rock for his hurdling debut he could well run a nice race at 25/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.55 HUNTINGDON-PETROU E/W 25/1
Friday, 30 October 2015
Hunter Could Strike Gold At Newmarket
A veritable feast of action in store this Saturday with a host of potential Cheltenham horses making their return to action. The Charlie Hall at Wetherby and The Champion Chase at Down Royal are the highlights in the afternoon, while the stars of the flat will be in action later on in America for the Breeders Cup. Racing fans are spoilt for choice, and there are lots of potential winners to be found.
I have written a detailed preview for the Charlie Hall and you can check my analysis and selection here at Bettingtools. I am also a tipster for Bettingtools, and while usually I post my fancies here and on Bettingtools, sometimes I haven't got time to write them up here on my blog. If you don't want to miss any of my selections you can check here.
I have also written a detailed preview for the Champion Chase at Down Royal for the brilliant blog Sportismadeforbetting and you can read it here.
One horse that I believe could run well at a nice price tomorrow goes on the flat at Newmarket in the concluding handicap at 4.30. Gold Hunter, trained by Steve Flook, is an ex Godolphin horse that used to mix it in much better company than this. He is now rated 77, and looks very well treated considering he went close off 93 back in 2013.
Since leaving Godolphin his form has nosedived, but he showed that some ability definitely remained with a close call at Ascot on his penultimate run. That effort came off a mark of 75 on soft over 7f, and he is effectively 1lb lower today if his talented and in form jockey's 3lb claim is considered. He was beaten less than half a length and it was a cracking effort. He was beaten just over 2L off 89 back in April at Wolverhampton, and a repeat of that run would be more than enough here. At odds of 16/1 he looks well worthy of a little e/w support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.20 NEWMARKET GOLD HUNTER 16/1 E/W
I have written a detailed preview for the Charlie Hall and you can check my analysis and selection here at Bettingtools. I am also a tipster for Bettingtools, and while usually I post my fancies here and on Bettingtools, sometimes I haven't got time to write them up here on my blog. If you don't want to miss any of my selections you can check here.
I have also written a detailed preview for the Champion Chase at Down Royal for the brilliant blog Sportismadeforbetting and you can read it here.
One horse that I believe could run well at a nice price tomorrow goes on the flat at Newmarket in the concluding handicap at 4.30. Gold Hunter, trained by Steve Flook, is an ex Godolphin horse that used to mix it in much better company than this. He is now rated 77, and looks very well treated considering he went close off 93 back in 2013.
Since leaving Godolphin his form has nosedived, but he showed that some ability definitely remained with a close call at Ascot on his penultimate run. That effort came off a mark of 75 on soft over 7f, and he is effectively 1lb lower today if his talented and in form jockey's 3lb claim is considered. He was beaten less than half a length and it was a cracking effort. He was beaten just over 2L off 89 back in April at Wolverhampton, and a repeat of that run would be more than enough here. At odds of 16/1 he looks well worthy of a little e/w support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.20 NEWMARKET GOLD HUNTER 16/1 E/W
Thursday, 29 October 2015
Oscar Could Spring A Surprise At Stratord
A frustrating run from yesterday's selection Wild Flower. She got boxed in rounding the home turn and ran on well once finding a clear path. The winner had flown though, and she just failed to reel him in. It was a place at least though and at the advised price of 20/1 it resulted in a bit of profit.
Today there is more all weather action in England, but the horse I am interested in goes over timber in the 3.10 at Stratford, a 2m6f maiden hurdle. The one I like is the Jeremy Scott '2nd string' I'm Oscar, who will be ridden by talented conditional jockey Matt Griffiths, who is excellent value for his 3lb claim. Scott also runs Master Benjamin, who will be ridden by stable jockey Nick Schofield, but the jockey bookings haven't put me off.
I'm Oscar has had two runs so far, and by far the best one came on his debut in a 16.5f bumper on soft ground at Taunton. he ran a lovely race to finish 4th, outpaced but keeping on nicely. The fact he was sent off at just 6/1 suggests he is well thought of. His next effort at Ffos Las wasn't nearly as promising, but there is hope that he can put in a better performance today.
He is related to a heap of winners, including the likes of Benefit Cut, I'moncloudnine, Imalegend and Ballyben. Almost all of that lot need a proper stamina test to be seen at their best, and the step up in trip looks sure to suit I'm Oscar. The fact that Griffiths rides could be seen as another positive, as he was on board for both his bumper runs so he knows the gelding well.
Now obviously an awful lot has to be taken on trust with this selection, and it is not one to be having the monthly mortgage payment on. He could be unfit and need the run badly, he might not have improved for the break etc. However, at odds of 40/1 I think it is worth chancing that Scott has him ready to go and is upping him in trip on his hurdle debut for a reason.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.10 STRATFORD: I'M OSCAR 40/1 E/W
Today there is more all weather action in England, but the horse I am interested in goes over timber in the 3.10 at Stratford, a 2m6f maiden hurdle. The one I like is the Jeremy Scott '2nd string' I'm Oscar, who will be ridden by talented conditional jockey Matt Griffiths, who is excellent value for his 3lb claim. Scott also runs Master Benjamin, who will be ridden by stable jockey Nick Schofield, but the jockey bookings haven't put me off.
I'm Oscar has had two runs so far, and by far the best one came on his debut in a 16.5f bumper on soft ground at Taunton. he ran a lovely race to finish 4th, outpaced but keeping on nicely. The fact he was sent off at just 6/1 suggests he is well thought of. His next effort at Ffos Las wasn't nearly as promising, but there is hope that he can put in a better performance today.
He is related to a heap of winners, including the likes of Benefit Cut, I'moncloudnine, Imalegend and Ballyben. Almost all of that lot need a proper stamina test to be seen at their best, and the step up in trip looks sure to suit I'm Oscar. The fact that Griffiths rides could be seen as another positive, as he was on board for both his bumper runs so he knows the gelding well.
Now obviously an awful lot has to be taken on trust with this selection, and it is not one to be having the monthly mortgage payment on. He could be unfit and need the run badly, he might not have improved for the break etc. However, at odds of 40/1 I think it is worth chancing that Scott has him ready to go and is upping him in trip on his hurdle debut for a reason.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.10 STRATFORD: I'M OSCAR 40/1 E/W
Tuesday, 27 October 2015
Four Tricky Trainers To Follow For The New Jumps Season
It is that time of year again when the rains arrive and the top national hunt horses start to reappear. All roads lead to Cheltenham for the likes of Nicholls, Henderson and O'Neill but there is usually very little value to be found in backing their horses throughout the season. There are plenty of smaller operations that are more than capable of readying one, and below are my four tricky trainers to follow for 2015/16.
SUE GARDNER
Sue Gardner will not be a name familiar to the vast majority of casual racing fans, but she is a trainer that does very well with a small string, and indeed one of her horses went close for this blog at 20/1 on Saturday at Cheltenham (Here's Herbie). She has a habit of popping up with massive priced winners, and is one to watch out for at her local track Exeter, where she loves to have a winner (16/107 +24.33).
Her daughter Lucy rides most of her horses, and is well capable of getting the job done. When Micheal Nolan is booked it pays to take note as he has ridden plenty of winners for Gardner and the same applies to Matt Griffiths. She has a couple of nice horses to work with this year (Here's Herbie, Only Gorgeous, Tea Time Fred among others) and if you like backing double figure priced winners Sue Gardner is a trainer well worth keeping an eye on.
BEN CASE
Edgcot handler Ben case is another trainer that overachieves given his limited resources. He hasn't had the best of times over the last couple of months, but when his horses do hit form watch out! The winners usually come thick and fast when Case gets going, and he is not afraid to take on the big boys when he has the ammunition.
He usually saves his best horses for the big Saturday meetings throughout the Winter, and he has had a couple of notable winners on big days, including Croco Bay last November who won by nearly 20L at Ascot and Deep Trouble who won a listed handicap at Sandown. His horses are usually overpriced and he is a dangerous man in handicaps as he knows how to get one well treated. He is another trainer worth watching this season.
THOMAS GIBNEY
Readers of the blog will be familiar by now with this Kells based handler who trains The Nutcracker, a mare I have tipped up a couple of times before. He has done extremely well with limited resources and won the Irish Grand National with Lion Na Bearnai just a few years ago. His stable star was sent off 33/1 that day, and he also won at an even bigger price on his previous start beating three Gigginstown horses at Navan. Orpheus Valley also won a big handicap at the Punchestown Festival at 28/1 so the proof is there that Gibney can get one ready for the big day.
Both his stable stars are getting on a bit now, but he has some new recruits to work with and one of his most promising horses, Balnagon Boy, made a very encouraging return to action today at Punchestown on his first run since 2013. The Nutcracker has scope to improve, while Stoughan Cross is well capable of winning a handicap of his current mark.To Choose will also be competitive in handicaps, both on the level and over timber, Balnagon Boy is the one to watch though, and his pedigree suggests he will be of interest when stepping up in trip. He could be the star for Gibney this season.
SANDY THOMSON
This Scottish trainer is as shrewd as they come and does exceptionally well with very limited resources. He first came to my attention back in 2013 at Kelso. Regal Encore was a horse I had followed from debut, and he had finished 3rd in the Champion Bumper. He was 1/4 to follow up his maiden hurdle win with a novice victory, but ran into a horse trained by Thomson who beat the Honeyball horse easily. Seeyouatmidnight was sent off at 66/1 and proved it was no fluke when following up at 22/1 in a novice next time (I backed him that day!) hacking up by 10L.
He subsequently was sent off at 6/1 for a Grade 2 at Haydock and again won. The bookies had no respect for Thomson, but unfortunately they are a bit more wary of him now, especially up North. His maiden/novice runners are always worth keeping an eye on though, especially any that have point to point experience. If you fancy one of his don't let the price put you off. As the exploits of Seeyouatmidnight showed Thomson is not averse to having a big priced winner. One to look out for in the coming weeks is Spirit Of Kayf, who ran a lovely race in a bumper at the weekend. He is well bred and should be well up to winning races in the future.
SUE GARDNER
Sue Gardner will not be a name familiar to the vast majority of casual racing fans, but she is a trainer that does very well with a small string, and indeed one of her horses went close for this blog at 20/1 on Saturday at Cheltenham (Here's Herbie). She has a habit of popping up with massive priced winners, and is one to watch out for at her local track Exeter, where she loves to have a winner (16/107 +24.33).
Her daughter Lucy rides most of her horses, and is well capable of getting the job done. When Micheal Nolan is booked it pays to take note as he has ridden plenty of winners for Gardner and the same applies to Matt Griffiths. She has a couple of nice horses to work with this year (Here's Herbie, Only Gorgeous, Tea Time Fred among others) and if you like backing double figure priced winners Sue Gardner is a trainer well worth keeping an eye on.
BEN CASE
Edgcot handler Ben case is another trainer that overachieves given his limited resources. He hasn't had the best of times over the last couple of months, but when his horses do hit form watch out! The winners usually come thick and fast when Case gets going, and he is not afraid to take on the big boys when he has the ammunition.
He usually saves his best horses for the big Saturday meetings throughout the Winter, and he has had a couple of notable winners on big days, including Croco Bay last November who won by nearly 20L at Ascot and Deep Trouble who won a listed handicap at Sandown. His horses are usually overpriced and he is a dangerous man in handicaps as he knows how to get one well treated. He is another trainer worth watching this season.
THOMAS GIBNEY
Readers of the blog will be familiar by now with this Kells based handler who trains The Nutcracker, a mare I have tipped up a couple of times before. He has done extremely well with limited resources and won the Irish Grand National with Lion Na Bearnai just a few years ago. His stable star was sent off 33/1 that day, and he also won at an even bigger price on his previous start beating three Gigginstown horses at Navan. Orpheus Valley also won a big handicap at the Punchestown Festival at 28/1 so the proof is there that Gibney can get one ready for the big day.
Both his stable stars are getting on a bit now, but he has some new recruits to work with and one of his most promising horses, Balnagon Boy, made a very encouraging return to action today at Punchestown on his first run since 2013. The Nutcracker has scope to improve, while Stoughan Cross is well capable of winning a handicap of his current mark.To Choose will also be competitive in handicaps, both on the level and over timber, Balnagon Boy is the one to watch though, and his pedigree suggests he will be of interest when stepping up in trip. He could be the star for Gibney this season.
SANDY THOMSON
This Scottish trainer is as shrewd as they come and does exceptionally well with very limited resources. He first came to my attention back in 2013 at Kelso. Regal Encore was a horse I had followed from debut, and he had finished 3rd in the Champion Bumper. He was 1/4 to follow up his maiden hurdle win with a novice victory, but ran into a horse trained by Thomson who beat the Honeyball horse easily. Seeyouatmidnight was sent off at 66/1 and proved it was no fluke when following up at 22/1 in a novice next time (I backed him that day!) hacking up by 10L.
He subsequently was sent off at 6/1 for a Grade 2 at Haydock and again won. The bookies had no respect for Thomson, but unfortunately they are a bit more wary of him now, especially up North. His maiden/novice runners are always worth keeping an eye on though, especially any that have point to point experience. If you fancy one of his don't let the price put you off. As the exploits of Seeyouatmidnight showed Thomson is not averse to having a big priced winner. One to look out for in the coming weeks is Spirit Of Kayf, who ran a lovely race in a bumper at the weekend. He is well bred and should be well up to winning races in the future.
Flower Could Flourish Dropped In Trip At Chelmsford
Tomorrow's selection goes at Chelmsford in the concluding 6f handicap. Irish trainer JJ Murphy sends a couple over across the Irish Sea, and the one that is of interest is Wild Flower in the 4.30. Murphy is 2/5 with his runners on the all weather in England (1/25 on turf).
This 3yo filly comes here after quite an encouraging effort when beaten just 2L at Dundalk last time out. That run came over a mile, and she showed plenty of speed before running out of puff in the final furlong. The way she travelled and finished that day suggested she is well worth another go over a sprint trip, and she gets her chance for the first time since her handicap debut back in September of last year.
She has been campaigned exclusively over 7-8f this season without much success, but that last run, as well as her pedigree suggests that 6f should be ideal. She is a daughter of Approve, and he has a 39% strike rate with his progeny over 5/6f compared to just 23% at 7/8f. Kieran O'Neill has been booked, and when trying he is an excellent jockey. She has a decent draw in stall 6, and showed she handles an artificial surface at Dundalk. At 20/1 she looks a big price, and is surely worthy of a little each way support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.30 CHELMSFORD-WILD FLOWER 20/1 E/W
This 3yo filly comes here after quite an encouraging effort when beaten just 2L at Dundalk last time out. That run came over a mile, and she showed plenty of speed before running out of puff in the final furlong. The way she travelled and finished that day suggested she is well worth another go over a sprint trip, and she gets her chance for the first time since her handicap debut back in September of last year.
She has been campaigned exclusively over 7-8f this season without much success, but that last run, as well as her pedigree suggests that 6f should be ideal. She is a daughter of Approve, and he has a 39% strike rate with his progeny over 5/6f compared to just 23% at 7/8f. Kieran O'Neill has been booked, and when trying he is an excellent jockey. She has a decent draw in stall 6, and showed she handles an artificial surface at Dundalk. At 20/1 she looks a big price, and is surely worthy of a little each way support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.30 CHELMSFORD-WILD FLOWER 20/1 E/W
Monday, 26 October 2015
Price Could Be Right At Leicester
The less said about Raajih the better. I thought he looked overpriced at 14/1, but his drift out to 40/1 suggested the run was badly needed. Such is life, and hopefully today's selection puts up a better show. The filly that catches my eye is Kingstreet Lady, trained by Richard Price, and she goes in the opening nursery at 12.50.
This filly is having her 3rd handicap run, and showed clear promise on her handicap debut off 63 over 6f on soft ground at Chepstow. She was denied a clear run just as the race was hotting up, but when she found daylight she showed quite a good attitude, staying on nicely in the closing stages and shaping as if a step up in trip would definitely suit.
She was sent off at 40/1 on her next run at Wolverhampton over 7f, but she showed the trip was no problem, staying on strongly in the home straight having been shuffled back coming around the bend. She was only beaten 2L in the end, and it was a very eye catching run. She didn't seem to handle the turns too well, and the straight 7F at Leicester should be ideal.
Soft ground is fine too, and off a mark of 60 with Muscutt taking off another 3lbs she is effectively 6lb lower than she was for her handicap debut. She looks too big a price at 12/1 and granted better luck in running she should go very close in what looks a pretty open race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 12.50 LEICESTER- KINGSTREET LADY 12/1
This filly is having her 3rd handicap run, and showed clear promise on her handicap debut off 63 over 6f on soft ground at Chepstow. She was denied a clear run just as the race was hotting up, but when she found daylight she showed quite a good attitude, staying on nicely in the closing stages and shaping as if a step up in trip would definitely suit.
She was sent off at 40/1 on her next run at Wolverhampton over 7f, but she showed the trip was no problem, staying on strongly in the home straight having been shuffled back coming around the bend. She was only beaten 2L in the end, and it was a very eye catching run. She didn't seem to handle the turns too well, and the straight 7F at Leicester should be ideal.
Soft ground is fine too, and off a mark of 60 with Muscutt taking off another 3lbs she is effectively 6lb lower than she was for her handicap debut. She looks too big a price at 12/1 and granted better luck in running she should go very close in what looks a pretty open race.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 12.50 LEICESTER- KINGSTREET LADY 12/1
Saturday, 24 October 2015
Raajih Can Rattle Home At Wincanton
A desperately close call for Here's Herbie at Cheltenham yesterday. He travelled well and Lucy Gardner looked to have timed her challenge perfectly as Herbie closed in on the leader after the final flight. He just couldn't get his head in front though, and claimed 3rd in an blanket finish, sent off at odds of just 15/2 (adv e/w 20/1). Hopefully the handicapper doesn't go too hard on him after such a good effort. It won't be long until he is back in the winner's enclosure and is one to watch out for later on in the season.
Today there is decent action at Aintree and Galway, and a good flat card at Leopardstown. However, the horse I like goes at Wincanton, and he looks sure to benefit from a return to 3m+. His last effort over this sort of trip came at Aintree back in April in the listed Betfred Handicap Chase, and he ran an absolute cracker in 4th, just 2L behind the winner. That effort came off a mark of 140, and he has been dropped to 137 after a couple of poor efforts over inadequate trips.
That Aintree run came on similar ground to today, and Woollacott has booked a decent 7lb claimer to ease the burden of top weight. Matthew Hampton has ridden 7 winners before and is well worth his claim, so effectively Raajih runs off a mark of 130. His last chase win, at Perth for former trainer Gordon Elliott, came last September and he hacked up by 8L off a mark of 135. He is on a mark he should be well capable of exploiting, especially considering his effort off 140 at Cheltenham, and he is definitely worth an each way interest at 14/1 returned to his optimum trip.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.45 WINCANTON RAAJIH 14/1 E/W
Herbie Could Make Hay For Gardner At Cheltenham
A couple of national hunt trainers look to have hit the ground running and the likes of Nigel Twiston Davies and especially Dan Skelton are two that have been amongst the winners. Skelton has three at Cheltenham today, and it is difficult to see him finishing without a winner. For me Fou Et Sage looks a very interesting runner at odds of 7/1. He is already a listed winner/grade 3 placed and is a fascinating contender for his in form yard.
However, my selection for the meeting goes in the 2m5f handicap at 5.05 and I reckon Here's Herbie could be set for a big run off a feather weight. Sue Gardner does exceptionally well with her small string, especially at her home track Exeter. Sea Saffron was a standing dish around there before his well earned retirement, winning numerous races for talented conditional jockey Matt Griffiths and running a number of crackers in defeat too.
Here's Herbie represents the same connections, and will be ridden by Lucy Gardner, who steered him to victory twice at Exeter (both 18f) back in Spring 2014. He found things difficult off his revised mark after the handicapper took action, raising him to 122. However, he ran a very encouraging race off his new mark at Cheltenham after his 2nd win. That effort came over 3m and he was beaten just over 8L, holding every chance at the last and fading only in the closing stages.
He made his reappearance last year over course and distance, again off 122, and ran another big race, finishing 5th. He again travelled well and looked to just run out of steam in the closing stages. This year he has had a prep run over an inadequate 2m at Warwick, and after a couple of disappointing efforts at the tail end of last season he has been dropped to what looks a very reasonable mark of 115, just 1lb higher than he was for the 2nd of his Exeter wins. He will be fit, his yard had one go close during the week, and at odds of 20/1 he looks well worthy of a little each way support.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 5.05 CHELTENHAM: HERE'S HERBIE 20/1 E/W
Friday, 23 October 2015
Twiston Davies Could Strike At Cheltenham And A Couple From Newbury
Nigel Twiston Davies has been in excellent form in the last week or so and he has been firing in the winners. He has a couple at Cheltenham tomorrow, and the one that catches my eye is Five Star Wilsham in the Amateur riders 3m 1f chase at 5.05. This gelding isn't getting any younger at 11 years of age, but I think there could be life in the old dog yet, and there are a number of reasons to be hopeful about his chances tomorrow.
He was a close 2nd at silly odds in this race back in 2013, an effort that came off a mark of 117. He went for a repeat bid on his first run back last season, but that came off 123, and he was probably badly in need of the run and was eventually pulled up.
He is back for another crack this year, and Twiston Davies has decided to give him a prep run on this occasion. He didn't pull up any trees on that run a month ago in Perth, but it will have blown away the cobwebs, and he will surely come on heaps for that outing. His mark looks a lot better this year too, and the handicapper generously dropped him a couple for his comeback effort to a more than manageable 118, 1lb higher than the mark he was 2nd off.
A very decent claimer has been booked in JJ Slevin, and his claim means that Five Star Wilsham will be effectively running off a mark of 111. His last win, only back in January, came off 116 and he hosed up by 10 lengths. He looks well treated, has form at the track and his stable are in cracking form. All things considered he looks well overpriced at 14/1 and should give each way players a good run for their money.
Another couple have caught my eye on the flat at Newbury. Balding's filly Make Music in the 1.50 at 16/1, and Ngorongoro, a 2yo colt trained by Joe Tuite that goes in the 4.45 at 14/1. Both nicely bred and both should come on massively from their debuts. They are worth a couple of pennies each way at decent odds. Apologies for the lack of an in-depth explanation on why I fancy these two, but unfortunately time is at a premium. I have done the research though and think they are both overpriced, especially the Tuite colt.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: 5.05 CHE FIVE STAR WILSHAM (14/1) E/W
4.45 NEW NGORONGORO (14/1) E/W
1.50 NEW MAKE MUSIC (16/1) E/W
He was a close 2nd at silly odds in this race back in 2013, an effort that came off a mark of 117. He went for a repeat bid on his first run back last season, but that came off 123, and he was probably badly in need of the run and was eventually pulled up.
He is back for another crack this year, and Twiston Davies has decided to give him a prep run on this occasion. He didn't pull up any trees on that run a month ago in Perth, but it will have blown away the cobwebs, and he will surely come on heaps for that outing. His mark looks a lot better this year too, and the handicapper generously dropped him a couple for his comeback effort to a more than manageable 118, 1lb higher than the mark he was 2nd off.
A very decent claimer has been booked in JJ Slevin, and his claim means that Five Star Wilsham will be effectively running off a mark of 111. His last win, only back in January, came off 116 and he hosed up by 10 lengths. He looks well treated, has form at the track and his stable are in cracking form. All things considered he looks well overpriced at 14/1 and should give each way players a good run for their money.
Another couple have caught my eye on the flat at Newbury. Balding's filly Make Music in the 1.50 at 16/1, and Ngorongoro, a 2yo colt trained by Joe Tuite that goes in the 4.45 at 14/1. Both nicely bred and both should come on massively from their debuts. They are worth a couple of pennies each way at decent odds. Apologies for the lack of an in-depth explanation on why I fancy these two, but unfortunately time is at a premium. I have done the research though and think they are both overpriced, especially the Tuite colt.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: 5.05 CHE FIVE STAR WILSHAM (14/1) E/W
4.45 NEW NGORONGORO (14/1) E/W
1.50 NEW MAKE MUSIC (16/1) E/W
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