Tomorrow's action is nothing to get overly excited about and it is the usual early week fare that I try to avoid. However, there is a horse that has caught my eye at Uttoxeter tomorrow and this 17 race maiden could be set for a big run. Rose Red, an 8yo mare by Weld, has gone close on a couple of occasions in her career and has shown that she definitely has the ability to win a race.
She went desperately close on quick ground over 2m here back in July, going down by a nose off a mark of 80 with jockey Jake Hodson taking off 5lb. She has been campaigned mostly on fast ground, which is understandable, as her half siblings were best on a decent surface and both won races for Rob Summers, who bred this mare himself.
However, she has had a few runs on an easy surface, and there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about her chances over 20f on soft ground. She had 4 runs in bumpers, all on soft, and she ran cracking races in the last two of them at Warwick, staying on very nicely and shaping as though an extra half mile would be ideal.
Her last run on heavy ground, at Sedgefield back in January 2014 over 17f off a mark of 86 (Best taking off another 3lb) was another encouraging effort. She was well beaten by the winner but stayed on very nicely again for 2nd, with a subsequent heavy ground winner (W Six Times) behind her in 3rd. She was a well backed 13/2 shot that day, which suggests that connections had an inkling that conditions were going to suit.
She races off a mark of 82 tomorrow, and her burden will be eased further by the claim of Charlie Hammond, who takes off another handy 7lb. Now often a young and inexperienced claimer on board would be a worry, but this young lad has ridden a 10/11 shot to victory for the good Dr Newland and if he is good enough for the Doc when the money is down, he is good enough for me. Rose Red will be effectively off a mark of just 75 and she is more than capable of scoring off that rating. If the step up in trip on soft ground suits she could definitely be in the shake up in what looks a very weak race. At odds of 20/1 she is worthy of a small and speculative each way punt.
STEVOS' SELECTION: 2.50 UTTOXETER- ROSE RED E/W 20/1
I've only just found you but I don't think I'll be leaving in a hurry. Very thorough analysis!
ReplyDeleteGreat tipping as always
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