Festival Fancies

Wednesday

Neptune Hurdle

An open heat, with the market headed by Willie Mullins'  Nichols Canyon, a horse I had the pleasure of seeing in action when he won easily at Fairyhouse in November. He also has a recent win over market rival Windsor Park in the book, but I think the Weld horse can reverse the form back on a better surface. He looks to have a serious chance at 6/1 and looks the best of the Irish challengers.
The home challenge is strong in this race, and the pick of their team looks to be the ex Godolphin inmate Parlour Games who won over course and distance back in November. However, there was a distinct lack of pace in that race and it remains to be seen if this flat bred gelding will relish the hill after a furiously run race. The previous ten winners have been national hunt bred horses. A more likely challenger, in my opinion, is Alan King's Ordo Ab Chao. He also won here in gutsy fashion back in January, and it looked a more honest pace than Parlour Games encountered. He seems to also enjoy decent ground, which he will get here, and at 16/1 this son of Heron Island looks a great each way bet in a wide open race.

Picks: Windsor Park 6/1(win), Ordo Ab Chao 16/1 e/w. (small reverse forecast)

RSA Chase

Don Poli is the hype horse in this race. Numerous experts have put him forward as their best bet of the week. A winner at the festival last year, storming up the hill in impressive fashion, it is hard to pick holes in his form. He looks to relish three miles, and has proven himself on decent ground. However, he looks to be facing a formidable foe in the shape of the Bradstock's stable star Coneygree. Still to be confirmed for this race, this exciting eight year old has electrified on his last few starts, dishing out an unmerciful beating to Houblon Des Obeaux last time out. The general consensus seems to be that he will take his chance here rather than in the Gold Cup, and if he does Don Poli will have to be at the top of his game to come out on top.
The Pipe's Kings Palace, Paul Nicholls' Southfield Theatre  and Neil Mullholland's gutsy chaser The Young Master  complete the list of horses at the head of the market, but will be battling it out for minor money unless the top two capitulate.
In conclusion, I can see Coneygree setting off in front and jumping like a stag as he always does, but he won't last home up the hill and Don Poli will pick up the pieces, swoop late and bring home the bacon for the Irish.

Pick: Don Poli (nap) 5/2

Coral Cup

If he runs, Arbre De Vie looks interesting. Been a lot of hot air from the Mullins camp all week at various preview events about most of their runners, but one horse they have never mentioned is this one. Could be well treated. I will return to this race in greater detail once the final line up is certain.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

An intriguing race, and for many the most fascinating race of the festival. Sprinter Sacre, the returning legend is currently favourite, with Barry Geraghty telling everyone he 'feels' back to his best. Too many doubts for me however, and I'll be laying this one heavily.
Old rival Sire De Grugy impressed under a heavy weight, jumping like his old self,  after making a complete horlicks of his comeback run and  he deserves his place near the top of the market. Dodging Bullets is another near the head of the market but his festival record leaves a lot to be desired.
Champagne Fever looks to be the pick of the Irish in this race, and can't be discounted given his brilliant Cheltenham record. He looks a fair price at 6/1 as he seems sure to go close with a clear round of jumping.
One horse that looks a huge price is Mick Channon's Somersby, who can still be backed at 40/1. This horse is a standing dish at the festival, and is still seeking his first win after a number of near misses, including a 4l 2nd to Sire De Grugy last year. Now 11 years old, he has run to an RPRs of 164, 165 and 166 in his last three appearances this season, which suggests he still retains a lot of his ability. Add this to the fact that those three runs were on softer ground than ideal and it becomes an even more impressive feat. I think he is well worth a small each way interest with a fighting chance of being in the first three.

Pick: Somersby each way 40/1

Cross Country

No opinion on this. One to simply watch and enjoy.


Fred Winter

The last three winners have been sent off at odds of 33/1, 25/1 and 40/1. Although he hasn't won it since 2010 Paul Nicholls has supplied two of the first four home in the last two renewals. He has three entries this year and the market would suggest that Bouveril is his main hope. However his form leaves a lot to be desired and his pedigree doesn't exactly set the pulse racing either. Money has also come for All Yours, as short as 10/1 in some places now.  He also has Old Guard, a flat bred horse who turned over Karezak earlier this season, He hasn't been seen since disappointing behind Pain Au Chocolat at Sandown, but his flat form and pedigree suggest he will be a different proposition on a quicker surface. At 20/1 he is the one for me out of Nicholls three.
Gordon Elliott won this two years ago with Flaxen Flare, and is out to repeat the trick with Hostile Fire, who has been well backed and is currently a best priced 8/1fav. Thunder Zone and Chatam House Rule complete his raiding party, with the former the pick of Gigginstown jockey Bryan Cooper.
The one I like at 16/1 is Starchitect for Donald McCain. Finished a creditable 2nd to Hargam in a listed hurdle at Musselburgh on his last run,on ground softer than ideal, and has been allocated a mark of 133. This could turn out to be lenient, and back on decent ground this could be Sea The Stars first winner at Cheltenham.

Picks: Starchitect 16/1 e/w Old Guard 20/1 e/w

Champion Bumper

A notoriously difficult race for punters. Mullins has won 4 of the last 10 editions so obviously his entrants have to be respected. However, his last three winners have all returned at double figure odds so it as not as simple as backing the one that is the shortest price. At the time of writing he still has eight entries, of which Bordoni is the lowest price at 7/1. For me the most interesting one is Turcagua who can be backed at 28/1. A son of Turgoen, he showed a liking for a sound surface when he won his bumper at Navan. He really only got going once he hit the hill, and that bodes well for the conditions he will face in this race.
There have been good vibes from the Elliott yard for Jetstream Jack, who runs in the colours made famous by the likes of  Menorah and Wishful Thinking. His win was given a boost last week when the horse he beat won easily at Navan and any entry from those quarters has to be respected.
The one that interests me most from the home team is a horse that was amongst the favourites for last years renewal, Modus, trained by little known Robert Stephens. He ran a good race last year, paying the price for running wide and fading in the last furlong. A year older, wiser and stronger this year it would be no surprise to see him making the frame.

Picks: Modus e/w 25/1, Jetstream Jack (nb) e/w 25/1. Turcagua e/w 25/1.


Daithi MacStiofain