Aintree Fancies

The Grand National Festival at Aintree is one of my favourite meetings. I was lucky enough to have attended the 2007 edition, when my cousins horse, Dun Doire, was among the ante-post favourites. However on the day the ground was quick, and this put paid to his chance and he was pulled up. The experience was still brilliant though, and the atmosphere was something else. I would strongly recommend it to any racing fan who hasn't managed to get there yet.
From a punting point of view this is a meeting where you usually need a horse that likes it quick underfoot. Also, it usually pays to avoid horses that have had hard races at Cheltenham, and whilst there are exceptions to this rule it is usually worth opposing them, as they are invariably very short prices and as a result there can be value found elsewhere. Below is my take on the first days action.

Race 1-Grade 1 Novice Chase

This race is more or less a rerun of the Arkle, minus Un De Sceaux and over four furlongs further, and the betting more or less reflects the positions they filled behind the ultra impressive winner, with the third home Josses Hill currently edging out  the fourth Vibrato Valtat for favouritism. Clarcam and Three Kingdoms are next in the market, and of the four I would see Clarcam as the value at a current price of 13/2. He was not given a hard time once the game was up in the Arkle, and he has the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the saddle. His defeat of Plinth proves he handles fast ground and gets the trip and he is a confident selection to bring the prize back to Ireland.

Selection: Clarcam  13/2

Race 2 -Juvenile Hurdle

Hargam looks the obvious one in this. However, while he is the most likely winner one at a price that might put it up to him is Intense Tango from the Karl Burke yard. Burke is in scintillating form at the moment, and this horse skipped Cheltenham in order to be in prime condition for this event. Ground conditions are perfect for him, and he is currently available at 14/1 with Paddy Power. If Hargam doesn't show up in peak condition I think Intense Tango has an excellent chance of capitalising and is worth supporting each way.

Selection: Intense Tango e/w 14/1

Race 3- Betfred Bowl Chase

A tricky puzzle to solve, with a case to be made for many of the participants. From a value perspective though the 8/1 currently available about Menorah looks too good to turn down. Silvinaco Conti had a hard race at Cheltenham and while he should be winning this on the figures, it doesn't always work out that way. Menorah proved he retained all of his old ability with a superb win in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, before chasing home Silvinaco Conti on his next outing in the Betfair at Haydock. Crucially though Menorah has been freshened up for this having skipped Cheltenham, and I believe he can reverse that form and go one better than his 2nd place to First Lieutenant in 2013.

Selection: Menorah  8/1

Race 4- Aintree Hurdle

An intriguing renewal, with some class acts taking their chances. Jezki and Arctic Fire renew their rivalry after facing each other in the Champion Hurdle. The horse I like in this however is another one that skipped the festival, Blue Heron for the Skeltons. This horse has shaped as if 2m 4f would be ideal on a number of occasions this season, and this will be his first go at the trip this year. I think it will bring the best out of him, and at a price of 14/1 I think he can run into a place at least.

Selection: Blue Heron e/w 14/1

Race 5- Foxhunter Chase

An absolute minefield of a race and probably one to watch and enjoy rather than having a bet. If pushed my advice would be to have a small few quid each way on Neverownup for last years Grand National hero the good Dr. Richard Newland. Priced up at 33/1 this horse was less than 2l behind Big Fella Thanks (priced up at 7/1) when they met earlier this season on ground that would have been a lot softer than ideal for the Newland horse. Neverownup flopped on his next outing, but that was over 2 miles, and back up in trip and on decent ground he can make his presence felt.

Selection: Neverownup e/w 33/1

Race 6- Red Rum Chase

Ned Buntline is the one for me in this race. Very lightly raced, arguably unlucky in the finale at Cheltenham and has the assistance of the champ again in the saddle. He gets to race off the same mark again here, and I believe the easier track and better ground will suit him down to the ground. Ted Veale is one to watch in the betting. Back into a handicap and back on better ground he could be the biggest danger and is worth a saver at 12/1.

Selections: Ned Buntline 7/1, Ted Veale 12/1 e/w.

Race 7- Injured Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

Marinero is the one that looks way overpriced in this race. I fancied him to run well at Cheltenham but he was badly hampered and had no chance after. He is by Presenting and his dam is by Oscar so good ground should hold no fears. He shaped well stepped up to 18f at Fairyhouse and was dropped in trip on his next two runs. He had a valid excuse at Cheltenham and it would be no surprise to me to see him running a big race at odds of 20/1.

Selection: Marinero e/w 20/1.