Bank On Baileys At Doncaster

Monyjean ran an absolute stinker at the weekend and when I awoke to see him priced up at 28/1 in some places on Sunday morning, after tipping him up at 10s, I feared the worst. And in the end it was the worst that transpired as he ran no sort of race, tailing off as soon as things hotted up. Maybe he has had problems at home because his French form suggests he should be capable of a lot better.

Tomorrow at Doncaster the ground is currently described as good, and with no rain forecast hopefully it stays that way. One horse that looks certain to relish the return to a sound surface is Baileys Concerto, who runs in the 3m Veterans Handicap Chase at 3.30. This 10yo son of Bach has been a fine servant to Dianne Sayer, and his golden spell in 2014, when he won 7 from 8 and saw his mark go from 96 to 134, still remains fresh in the memory.

Another couple of fine placed efforts saw his mark go up to 139, and that seemed to be the limit of his ability as he has failed to make an impact over fences since. Of his 7 wins 6 have come on a sound surface (from 20f to 21.5f), but perhaps his best run of all came in January of last year, when he ran an absolute blinder in the valuable listed Skybet Chase over course and distance off 134. He was just over 3l behind the winner If In Doubt and 6l ahead of Night in Milan in 3rd, and that rival is just 3lb better off with Baileys Concerto here.

He has been mixing the flat with hurdling and chasing since that excellent run, and he has had only five chase outings in the mean time. He ran poorly on easy ground when 5th of 6 on his next run at Kelso off 139 and he was pulled up in the Scottish National off the same mark next time when the 32f trip would have been much too far for him. He was only beaten 6l over 25.5f on good ground off 135 at Cartmel back in August and he ran his best race for quite a while on his penultimate run at Aintree when 15L behind Pepite Rose on ground plenty soft enough  in November (20f).

His last run, over course and distance off 131 was a poor effort and he was pulled up. However, the ground was soft again that day and that is enough for me to put a line through that run. The handicapper has dropped him back down to 128, just 2lb above his last winning mark, and Brian Hughes, who rode him for 5 of his 7 wins, takes the ride. It would be no surprise if connections have targeted this race, as it is quite a valuable pot of 18k and they don't have to worry about any young unexposed types due to it being a veterans race. I think he could be set for a big run tomorrow off 6lb lower than his superb effort in the Skybet Chase, and at odds of 20/1 he looks well worth supporting each way in an open looking heat.

STEVOS' SELECTION:3.30 DONCASTER-BAILEYS CONCERTO E/W 20/1