Thursday, 12 May 2016

York Day 2

RACE 1

A tricky looking 5f class 2 handicap gets us under way on Day 2 and the ground is almost certain to dry out even more with a sunny day forecast. One horse that will definitely appreciate the quicker going is Meadway for Bryan Smart. The Smart yard had a couple run very well at big prices yesterday and Red Pike was placed for us at 50/1. Meadway is having his first run after a bit of a break but that is not too much of a worry as he went agonisingly close on his seasonal comeback last year.

That run came at Musselburgh in a class 2 handicap off 88 (5f good to firm) and he was only a head behind the winner Pearl Acclaim. He wasn't beaten all that far at Royal Ascot on his next start off 92 (beaten 3L in 9th) and you can put a line through his next handicap run which came over today's course and distance as the ground was good to soft. He won a handicap at Southwell in December off 86 and was beaten only a length off today's mark of 92 on his next start.

He has won over course and distance in the past, on good to firm ground, so his ability to handle the track is not in doubt. Just like Red Pike yesterday he likes to get on with things so a good fast start is important. If he gets away quickly he could be hard to peg back if he gets an easy lead. He looks a big price at 28/1 and he is the each way selection in a wide open handicap.

STEVOS' SELECTION: MEADWAY E/W 28/1

RACE 2

The first of the pattern races on Day 2 is the Middleton Stakes. Only 7 go to post but it looks a very tricky puzzle to solve. Most of the field are making their seasonal comebacks so fitness has to be taken on trust. With only 2 places for each way money I am going to sit this one out as I have no strong fancy and nothing looks overpriced.

RACE 3

The big one on Day 2 is the Dante and there are 12 runners in this competitive Group 2 contest. Unbeaten Galileo colt Midterm is the 6/4 favourite for Michael Stoute and he looks to be a worthy favourite. The only worry would be the quick ground as both his previous wins have come on good to soft. However, his dam Midday was right at home on a fast surface and he really should be fine on this different ground.

The one I think that could well at a decent price is Victory Bond, a son of Medicean who is trained by William Haggas. He went close on his only run at the tail end of last season when he was a close 2nd to Algometer. The winner got to within 2L of Midterm at Sandown last month so it was a good run, and Algometer also had the benefit of a previous run when he beat Victory Bond.

He made his seasonal reappearance in a maiden at Ripon (10f good to soft) last month and Victory Bond absolutely hosed up by 7L. He showed a nice turn of foot to put the race to bed and he won in the manner of a quality horse. He is bred to be useful, his Grand Dam was listed placed herself and her half brother Aquarelliste won a Group 1 Prix Ganay (10.5f) at Longchamp. Another half brother also won at Group 1 level so he has a pedigree that suggests he belongs at this level. He looks a big price at 14/1 and he is the each way selection in what should be a cracking race.

STEVOS' SELECTION: VICTORY BOND E/W 14/1

RACE 4

The next race on the card is the Hambleton, a listed handicap that will be run over 8f. This is as open a race as you will get and it is 8/1 the field, with Express Himself and Always Smile vying for favouritism at the head of the market. The one I like though is the Tim Easterby trained One Word More, a 6yo son of Thousand Words who has won just 3 of his 26 starts. That is not the most inspiring of strike rates but he has run very well on his 3 previous visits to York and the handicapper has dropped him to a mark he can be competitive off.

He didn't manage to win a race last season but he ran a couple of big races in defeat. He was beaten just 2L in a 7f handicap (good) at this meeting last year off 98 and he was beaten by a head here over the same trip off 99. That was followed with another smart effort off 102 at Ascot (7f soft) when he was beaten only a length by Rene Mathis. His next run, over today's course and distance off 103 was another sound effort and he stayed on really well late in the day for 5th, beaten just over 4L.

After a couple of moderate efforts at the tail end of last season and on his seasonal comeback he has been dropped a few pounds and he will run off 98 today. He showed last season that he is capable of a good run off this mark, and indeed he was a pound higher when beaten a just a head over 7f. He looks sure to come on a huge amount for his outing at Haydock last month and from a decent draw in stall 5 he can run a big race at odds of 14/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: ONE WORD MORE E/W 14/1

RACE 5

I have no strong fancy for this Listed race and it is one to just watch and enjoy.


RACE 6

Again this maiden does not appeal as a betting proposition. The ones with form in the book dominate the market and the newcomers are hard to weigh up. Another one to just watch.

RACE 7

It is the turn of the staying handicappers in the finale, a 16f class 3 event. 16 runners will go to post and it looks a very difficult puzzle to solve. The two Fitri Hay horses are battling it out for favouritism but the Cashel Man is having his first run of the year so if I had to pick one of those two it would be the top one Cardinal Walter as he will be fit from the jumps.

However, his odds of 4/1 look much too short in a race as competitive as this and at a much bigger price I think Wind Place And Sho could run well for James Eustace and Graham Lee. He had an excellent season last year, winning his maiden at Ponte (10f) before going on to win a 14f handicap at Sandown (good) off 80 and running a cracker when upped to 16f for the first time on his final run of the season at Newmarket (soft). He was beaten less than a length that day off a mark of 84 and he proved that he has the stamina for the trip.

He was poor on his seasonal comeback last month at Epsom but the trip of 12f was never likely to be ideal for this 4yo son of Shirocco. He was beaten out of sight by Barwick but the step up in trip he gets today will suit him a lot better. He should also strip much fitter for that effort and the return to better ground shouldn't be an issue. He is still only a 4yo so there could still be improvement to come from him over this trip and at odds of 25/1 he is worth chancing each way in an ultra competitive handicap.

STEVOS' SELECTION: WIND PLACE AND SHO E/W 25/1





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