Thursday, 13 October 2016

Fox Could Be A Cute Bet At Haydock

Best Solution was one of the most confident selections I have put up in a while, and I was delighted to see William Carson boot him home. He got him into a good position early, and he made sure that misfortune didn't have an impact on the result. Best Solution showed a good turn of foot to put the daylight between himself and the rest as they entered the final furlong, and the result was never in doubt. I couldn't believe he opened at 14s, never mind being 16s the day before, and even his sp of 12/1 was a mad price given his previous run.

The rest of my selections on Cesarewitch day didn't hit the frame, but the nap delivered at 16s and that is the main thing! Tomorrow I like the look of a couple at Haydock, and two small e/w singles and an e/w double could be just what the doctor ordered. The first one I am interested in is Fox Trotter in the 3.10, and this 4yo son of Bushranger looks well worth another crack over a mile on the evidence of two of his last three runs.

This fella has been very hard to win with, as his record of 1/15 neatly illustrates. However, he has been campaigned at a high level, and his form as a 2yo includes a G3 staying on 2nd (7f soft). He found life tough starting off in handicaps off a mark of 101 last season, though he did run well off the rating at Goodwood (7f gd/fm), when he was a never nearer 4th, beaten just 2L. He didn't make an impact out in Dubai when tried over a mile for the first time, but perhaps he didn't travel well.

He has had just four runs back in the UK this year, and two of those have been full of promise. He can be excused his reappearance of 97 at Goodwood, and he is better judged on his unlucky 4th at Doncaster when he stayed on really well to be beaten 1.75L off 94 on his first try in class 3 hcap company. He was poor next time over the same trip at Newmarket (gd/sft) and he was dropped to 6.5f last time out. He again did all his best work in the closing stages after blowing the start, and he shaped as if he is well worth another crack at a mile.

He drops back into class 3 company today, he has a decent draw in stall 2 and he gets to run off a career low mark of 92. James Doyle has been booked, and he has been riding like a man possessed since news of his Godolphin demotion emerged. Meehan has his string in decent shape, and he had a couple of nice winners last week. He has an excellent record at Kempton in the last 5 seasons (10/69) and Doyle is 1/3 for the yard. Fox Trotter still has to prove he stays a mile, but the visual evidence suggests he will, and at 12/1 he is worth backing each way.

The other one I fancy goes in the 8f 2yo maiden at 3.45, and no it isn't the supremely well bred son of Frankel who makes his debut for John Gosden. That colt is priced up at just 11/8, and I would never be afraid of taking a debutant on with one that has already had a run. Now I am not saying that Gosden can't ready one, and he could come out and slaughter the field, but at the current odds I would much rather be with Andrew Balding's son of Teofilo, High Commander.

This fella hasn't got a bad pedigree himself, and he showed plenty on his debut when 3rd at Windsor (8.5f gd/sft), beaten only a length despite being sent off at odds of 25/1, and blowing the start. That was an excellent run for a first time out runner from the Balding yard, as they usually improve massively for their first outing. Horseplay is a very recent example of that, hacking up by 13L on his second start after finishing 4th on his debut.

His dam is exceedingly well bred, and she is a full sister to none other than 2000 Guineas hero Footstepsinthesand. Pedro The Great, another G1 winner is her half brother, and there is no shortage of black type in his pedigree. Teofilo is an excellent sire, and a mile should be perfect at  this stage of High Commander's career. I think he is criminally overpriced, and at odds of 10/1 he should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the race.

STEVOS' SELECTIONS: FOX TROTTER E/W 12/1/HIGH COMMANDER E/W 10/1

ADVISED BET: TWO E/W SINGLES AND AN E/W DOUBLE



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