Houblon Can Outrun Odds In Hennessy

Quintus Cerialias drifted like the proverbial barge earlier this week, and he was just out for a spin by the looks of things. Maybe connections wanted to make sure the tongue tie worked and, on the evidence of how he finished under hands and heels after being posted wide, I think it is safe to say it did. He is definitely one to keep onside in the coming months as he is sure to pop up at a massive price.

Venetia could be smiling at Newbury.

Tomorrow is a cracking day of action, with the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and the Hennessy at Newbury. I have no strong fancy for the Newcastle race, and my only bet tomorrow goes in the big Newbury handicap. Houblon Des Obeaux goes well fresh, looks fairly treated and he will be ridden by a bang in form jockey, who takes off a very useful 5lbs.

I backed Venetia Williams' charge for this race at 50s two years ago, in the renewal won by Many Clouds, and he ran an absolutely huge race to finish 2nd off 157, just over 3L behind the subsequent Grand National winner. He obviously has an affinity for Newbury, as he was beaten just 7L by Gold Cup winner Coneygree here afterwards over 23.5f.

He came into the race last year with a prep run under his belt and off a mark of 156. Williams really fancied him beforehand, but he ran flat and finished a well beaten 9th behind Smad Place. He bounced back to form in a big way here on his penultimate run last season, smashing the Giant Bolster off level weights by 28L. He was pulled up on his final outing at Aintree, where the lively ground didn't suit.

He comes into the race this year off a mark of 153, just 1lb above his last winning mark and 4lb below the mark off which he was 2nd to Many Clouds. His lack of a prep run is more of a positive than a negative in my opinion, as until last season he had a superb record first time back. He won by 11L in 2012, 6L in 2013 and he was 2nd in this race in 2014. Charlie Deutsch is riding out of his skin right now, and the form figures for his last 6 rides for Williams read 521222.

His 5lb claim means that the 9yo son of Panoramic gets to race off an effective mark of just 148, and he is more than capable of making an impact off that rating. He loves Newbury, there is plenty of cut in the ground and Williams has had plenty of her horses run well first time up in the last month or so. This is likely the target for Houblon Des Obeaux this year, and I think he looks well overpriced at odds of 25/1. He is the each way suggestion in what should be a cracking renewal.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.10 NEWBURY: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX E/W 25/1