Moment Of Truth For Dare At Aintree

Exeter unfortunately fell foul to the freezing weather conditions, so we didn't get a run with Hija. Hopefully there will be no problems at Aintree tomorrow, where the Becher is the highlight. The Tingle Creek will be run at Sandown too on a bumper day of National Hunt action. Un De Sceaux is a warm order for that after a lorry load of cash was squandered on the withdrawn Douvan in the ante-post market (thanks to advice from Ruby...what a gent!).

Dare To Endeavour looks a big price at 18/1.

Last year I managed to find the winner of this race in Highland Lodge at 25/1 (read here) and I was sorely tempted to put him up again this year. He is only 5lb higher this time around, but the ground might be just a touch too lively for him. When you are looking for a winner over these formidable national fences it often pays to stick with horses that have completed the course, and last year's runner up Dare To Endeavour is my idea of a solid each way bet tomorrow. 

This 9yo gelding is by Alflora, and he ran an absolute cracker behind Highland Lodge here last year off a mark of 134. He hasn't pulled up any trees in 4 runs since, but three of those efforts came over unsuitably short trips. He ran poorly over 21f on bad ground on his final two starts of last season, and he produced another moderate run over 20f on yielding ground in a handicap hurdle at Listowel on his seasonal comeback. 

However, he showed definite signs of returning to form last time out in the Munster National at Limerick (24f yld), 5th beaten 20L off a mark of 134. He stayed on well behind the principals, and that outing should have put him right for this. He gets in off a mark of 135 tomorrow, just a pound higher than for last year's 2L 2nd. He had to give the winner 2lb, but he gets 2lb off him tomorrow, so that is a 4lb swing. 

His wins have all come on soft or heavy ground, but he produced his highest RPR on good ground at Sandown. It won't be rattling quick tomorrow at Aintree, and once there is even a small bit of an ease he should be fine. His trainer has targeted this race, he has shown he can be competitive off his current mark and he has experience over the fences. He gets in off a feather weight, and Harry Skelton is a good booking. I think he looks well overpriced at odds of 18/1 and he is the each way suggestion in an open looking race. 

STEVOS' SELECTION: DARE TO ENDEAVOUR E/W 18/1 PADDY POWER