Champion Hurdle Cheltenham 2018: The Stats That Matter

Last year for Cheltenham I wrote stats based articles for the Champion Hurdle and The Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and they worked out rather well. I managed to find both Sizing John and Buveur D’Air, so hopefully I can repeat the trick again in 2018. I will try to narrow the field using age, sex and price and hopefully that will reveal the most likely winner. First up is the Champion Hurdle, and to find out who the stats suggest is the most likely winner just keep on reading.

Age: More Than Just A Number


One of the most crucial factors to consider when looking for the winner of the Champion Hurdle is age. Speed is obviously an important quality to have for any horse with ambitions of landing this race, but experience is vital too too. I have looked at race results going back to 1995 and noticed that the optimum age for a potential Champion Hurdle winner is either 6 or 7 years old. 

At 11yo My Tent Or Yours' time may have passed. 

Of the 22 races run since 1995 (no race in 2001 due to foot and mouth disease outbreak) only four 8yos and two 9yos have won. Only one 5yo has won (Katchit in 2008) and a total of fifteen horses aged either 6yo or 7yo have won in that period. That means a line can be put through a host of horses, including some well fancied ones like Yorkhill (8yo), Wicklow Brave (9yo), My Tent Or Yours (11yo) and second favourite Faugheen (10yo).

Girls Up Against It

I know it might not be wise to suggest a bias regarding gender in these hyper sensitive times, but this is a trend that is near impossible to ignore when looking at previous Champion Hurdle winners. Only four mares have won it since it was first run in 1927, but there is nothing of the calibre of Dawn Run or Annie Power in this renewal.

Apple's Jade will most likely run in the Mares' Race.

Apple’s Jade and Verdana Blue are the only two girls left in the race, and with the former a very short price for the Mares’ Hurdle later on in the day she looks an unlikely runner. Verdana Blue, on all known form, looks to be punching well above her weight in this contest so I think she can be safely discounted too.

Market Signals

As anyone who follows my tips will know, I usually don’t get out of bed for anything less than a 16/1 shot. However, in the biggest races when almost every horse is guaranteed to be trying it often pays to back horses near the head of the market. The Champion Hurdle is no exception, with 15 of the last 22 winners scoring at single figure odds.

The last two stats that mattered reduced the field from 19 to 6, and this stat has a dramatic impact. Of all the horses left only one is a single figure price, and that is last year’s winner Buveur D’Air. It says a lot that of those remaining the next best in the market is Melon at 16/1, and just like the stats (and best available odds of 4/7) suggest, I think Buveur D’Air is going to be extremely hard to beat.

Champion Hurdle 2018 Verdict


It really pains me to put up an odds on shot for any race, but I was bullish about Buveur D’Air last year and not much has happened since to reduce my confidence in this horse. I love how he jumps his hurdles low and fast and the quicker they go the better he will travel. Barring accidents this lad wins on the bridle, and he could be another Istabraq in the making. 
 

Buveur D'Air looks impossible to oppose.

Apart from Buveur D’Air, I think this race looks wide open as regards place money. The next best in the market is Faugheen, a 10yo who has looked a shadow of the horse he once was on his last two starts. My Tent Or Yours is a talented individual and not many would begrudge him a win in a race in which he has run so well in before. However, he is an 11yo now and it would be a massive surprise were he fast enough to win, or even place in this contest.

At 33/1 Mick Jazz has big each way claims on good ground.

One horse who I think looks criminally overpriced is Mick Jazz. Gordon Elliott has not been over enthusiastic about this horse, but he won a Grade 1 fair and square when Faugheen was pulled up at Leopardstown’s Xmas meeting and he travelled well for a long way when 7L behind Supasundae and Faugheen at the Dublin Racing Festival. I think there could be more to come from him in a truly run 2 mile race on good ground and at 33/1 he is the pick to chase the favourite home. Melon can prove to be best of the rest in third.


STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: 1. BUVEUR D’AIR 4/7 2. MICK JAZZ 33/1 3. MELON 16/1