The Strensall Stakes kicks off the action on the final day of the Ebor Festival at York and nine horses have been declared for this 9f Group 3. Lord Glitters is the favourite dropping in class after some excellent efforts in Group 1 and Group 2 company, but he keeps on finding one or two too good and I think he would prefer a bit of cut in the ground. I would have fancied Morando on easy ground too, but underfoot conditions look a bit too quick for him.
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| Chief Ironside hosed up in a decent Chester maiden. |
STEVOS’ SELECTION: CHIEF IRONSIDE E/W @ 20/1 NAP
Race 2
The Melrose Handicap sees a field of 16 horses go to post and this 14f contest looks a tricky puzzle to solve. It is 7/1 the field, which shows the bookies are struggling to work it out too, but I really fancy the chances of Midnight Wilde at a tasty price. John Ryan’s son of Poet’s Voice ran a massive race in the Ulster Derby behind Change of Velocity, staying on strongly for 3rd over the 12f trip and shaping as though further would suit.
He proved that to be the case last time out at Chester on his first try at 14f, staying on well to score by just under 2L off a mark of 80. The handicapper has only put him up 2lb for that win and I think he is well capable of making his presence felt off 82. He has a nice enough draw in stall 6, he will love the fast ground and the 14f trip looks ideal. At odds of 25/1 I think Midnight Wilde could go well for each way players and he is the pick.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: MIDNIGHT WILDE E/W @ 25/1
Race 3
The Group 3 City of York Stakes is run over 7f and I fancy an old boy to go well. Gordon Lord Byron has to be one of the most likeable horses in training and he is still going strong for Tom Hogan after 88 starts. He has won 16 times and placed on a further 25 occasions, and he showed there was still life in the old dog yet with a smashing run over 6f in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time.
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| Gordon Lord Byron has been a star for connections. |
He has won three Group 1s during his stellar career and though he isn’t quite the force of old I think he still has enough in the tank to go well here. His last win came on easy ground, but he showed last season that he could cope well on good to firm with a super effort behind Washington DC at the Curragh (6f). Expert Eye is the current market leader and he could be hard to beat, but I think there is place money up for grabs and at odds of 22/1 Gordon Lord Byron is worth chancing each way over a course and distance that he really likes.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: GORDON LORD BYRON E/W @ 22/1
Race 4
The feature race of the entire meeting is the Ebor and this famous heritage handicap has attracted a maximum field of 20 horses. A high draw has been an advantage in recent renewals, with only one of the last 10 winners being drawn lower than stall 10 (Litigant stall 6 2015). That is not good news for those who have participated in the plunge on Stratum as the Willie Mullins trained gamble will start from stall 4. I am not sure about the drop back in trip for him either, and at just 7/2 he looks too short.
The draw has been kinder to last year’s hero Nakeeta (stall 15) and the apple of Iain Jardine’s eye showed clear signs of returning to form last time out. However, I think his main aim might be the Melbourne Cup later this season after his superb effort in it last term and he is also 3lb higher than he was last year after being put up a pound for his run behind Stratum at Newbury.
Andrew Balding has sent out 16 winners in the last two weeks, including one at York on Thursday. He runs two here, and on jockey bookings I think Scotland could be the number one. Crack claimer Jason Watson gets the leg up on the 7yo son of Monsun who makes his belated handicap debut off a mark of 108. Watson takes off another 3lb and he has been handed a decent starting position in stall 10.
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| Scotland is 5lb better off with Dylan Mouth with Jason Watson's claim. |
This fella has failed to win since scoring at Epsom on his second career start, all the way back in 2013. He has run some very good races in defeat at higher levels than this in the past, and he was far from disgraced in the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup (20f gd/fm) when 5th behind Stradivarius. That proved that the old ability still remained after a near 2 year absence, and he ran another stormer when beaten a length by Dylan Mouth over this c&d on his next start.
He is 2lb better off with that rival (5lb with Watson's claim) for a length defeat and given that Dylan Mouth was all out at the finish, I think Scotland’s proven stamina reserves can help him turn the form around in what is likely to be a strongly run race. Jason Watson’s claim means that Scotland effectively runs off 105 and Watson is worth every ounce of his allowance. His record when riding for Mr. Balding speaks for itself, 14 wins and 31 top 4 finishes from just 77 rides.
Scotland has to be forgiven a poor run last time when well beaten in a 12f Group 2 at Goodwood by Mirage Dancer, but the drop back in trip was never likely to suit and I reckon that might have been an outing to sharpen him up for a crack at this contest after his fine effort here behind Dylan Mouth. Given that Dylan Mouth is priced up at 18/1, I think Scotland is a crazy price at 50s, and hopefully his owner’s patience is rewarded with a massive run.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: SCOTLAND E/W @ 50/1 NB
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