Back Mak In The Nunthorpe

Unfortunately, Maljoom could never land a blow in the Juddmonte. He settled well and travelled ok but the 3yos were simply too good. The debate continues to rage about City Of Troy and he undoubtedly benefitted from being allowed a soft lead. However, he is building quite a CV and while he is no Frankel or Sea The Stars, he is a very, very good horse.

On Friday, the feature race at York is the Nunthorpe. This Group 1 sprint is always extremely competitive and this year is no different. Last year’s winner, Live In The Dream, has been targeted at this again and he is likely to be trained to the minute. His odds of 12/1 look far too big and he has a handy draw in stall 5.

Capable Of Winning A G1

Asfoora and Big Evs are others with obvious claims but last year’s fourth, Makarova, is the one I have come down on at odds of 25/1. I believe this mare has a G1 win in her and so does her trainer Ed Walker. I was convinced that her first win at the top table would come at Royal Ascot but the decision to put blinkers on backfired and while she wasn’t disgraced, she ended up seventh of 17, 4L behind Asfoora.

The blinkers lit her up that day and she raced far closer to the pace than usual. Those early exertions took their toll and she faded out of it in the final furlong. With the blinkers taken off, she returned to her best on her next two starts.

Blinkers Off

Firstly, she landed the G3 Coral Charge at Sandown (5f, sft) (Live In The Dream 3L back in third). Then, she lost very little in defeat behind Believing at the Curragh in the Sapphire Stakes, third beaten 2.25L after meeting traffic problems. I think with a clearer run she can get much closer to that rival (8/1 here).

She was beaten the same distance in this last year at huge odds behind Live In The Dream. She was only 0.5L behind Bradsell (6/1 here) and she is 2lb better off with him. She should get the strong pace she craves here, Hector Crouch knows her well and she isn’t too badly drawn in stall 9. At odds of 25/1, Makarova is worth backing e/w.

2024 Nunthorpe Stakes Tip: Makarova e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

An Each Way Fancy For The Juddmonte

The plan this week was to get away, do a bit of fishing, recharge the batteries and watch no racing. However, a thirteen runner Group 1 is such a rarity these days it would be rude not to have a go at something in tomorrow’s Juddmonte International Stakes at York. Holiday over in less than 24 hours!

The 16.1hh City Of Troy has been uneasy at the head of the market this week. Not many would have predicted the Second Coming would be odds against for this but he could be backed at as big as 6/4 with one firm this evening.

Will we see the City Of Troy that flopped in the Guineas, will we see the City Of Troy that won so well in the Derby or will we see the workmanlike City Of Troy that won the Coral Eclipse? It is this uncertainty that probably convinced so many trainers and owners have a go in this year’s Juddmonte and there are plenty of e/w alternatives if you fancy taking on the jolly.

Course Specialist

As regular readers will be well aware of, I am a sucker for a horse with lots of course form in the book. The horse I fancy here has never won at York, but his trainer is a proper course specialist and I think Maljoom can outrun his odds of 25/1 now upped to 10f for the first time by William Haggas.

By Caravaggio, if you just looked at Maljoom’s pedigree you would not think this trip would suit. He’s related to a 7f winner, his dam is related to 5f and 6f winners but sometimes, pedigrees can go out the window. On his last two starts at the top table over 8f this season, Maljoom has shaped like he wants further.

Slow Starter

In the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, he was slow away, he got outpaced at the 3f pole before staying on for third behind Charyn. Then, in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood in first time blinkers, he was again a step slow away. However, this time he travelled into the race much better and didn’t come off the bridle until the 2f pole. He finished off really strongly for second, finishing just 1.5L behind crack miler Notable Speech (G1 winners Facteur Cheval and Henry Longfellow behind).

The blinkers are unsurprisingly retained today and over this extra 2f, he may be able to travel better for even longer. As I mentioned earlier, William Haggas usually does well at York and he won this a couple of years ago with the mighty Baaeed. Is Maljoom as good as him? Probably not, but this looks a pretty open renewal of the Juddmonte and at odds of 25/1, hopefully he stays the trip and hits the frame for e/w players.

2024 Juddmonte International Tip: Maljoom e/w @ 25/1

-DaveStevos

Estepona Worth A Look In The Morny

It was great to get a winner on the board today with Faustus but it was a pity we got nothing to go with him. It is Prix Morny day at Deauville tomorrow and after having a good look at the race, I can’t let the unbeaten Estepona go unbacked for modest stakes at odds of 28/1.

As you would expect for a Group 1, this looks a competitive race. We have the G2 Norfolk Stakes winner Shareholder, the G2 July Stakes winner Whistlejacket, the G2 Robert Papin winner Arabie, the Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar and the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes winner Arabian Dusk.

The bookies rate Daylight as the best of the French contenders and that is understandable because she won a G3 over C&D. However, the unbeaten Mehmas colt Estepona is the one that caught my eye and while he needs to step up massively on what he has achieved to date, I don’t think he should be written off.

Well Bred

First of all, this lad has a couple of Group 1 winners in his pedigree. His dam, Cigalera, was a smart 3yo, placing in Listed and G3 company and her half-sister placed in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Estepona’s great grand-dam, is a half-sister to Group 1 winners Satwa Queen and Spadoun so while you do have to go back a couple of generations, he is from a good family. His sire Mehmas isn’t half bad either and he has already sired a few G1 2yo winners.

Estepona has raced twice over this C&D (both last month) and narrowly prevailed in both. In the first race he was forced to lead, they went a bit of a crawl before quickening 2f out and he just came out on top, beating an Andre Fabre Godolphin hotpot by a short head.

His next start, when he beat today’s rival Epson Blue Cen, was a bit of a farcical affair. None of the five runners wanted to lead and they absolutely dawdled through the first couple of furlongs. Again, they quickened around 400m out and Epson Blue Cen got first run, but Estepona reeled her in close to home and his jockey never had to resort to the persuader.

Proper Gallop

In all likelihood, it is going to be a truly run race in the Morny. It is impossible to know how Estepona will cope when they go a proper gallop from the outset and the recent record of French horses in this race suggests that he may be up against it.

However, I think he might be even better in a strongly run affair. He is a powerful looking colt who seems to be built like a proper sprinter and he only did enough, and no more, when winning his first two races. They haven’t looked under the bonnet properly yet and there’s no doubt that they will in this Group 1.

Maybe he won’t have the engine to compete with these proven Group performers, but I think he might and at the prices, he is worth throwing some loose change at.

2024 Prix Morny Tip: Estepona e/w @ 28/1

-DaveStevos