It was great to get a winner on the board today with Faustus but it was a pity we got nothing to go with him. It is Prix Morny day at Deauville tomorrow and after having a good look at the race, I can’t let the unbeaten Estepona go unbacked for modest stakes at odds of 28/1.
As you would expect for a Group 1, this looks a competitive race. We have the G2 Norfolk Stakes winner Shareholder, the G2 July Stakes winner Whistlejacket, the G2 Robert Papin winner Arabie, the Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar and the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes winner Arabian Dusk.
The bookies rate Daylight as the best of the French contenders
and that is understandable because she won a G3 over C&D. However, the
unbeaten Mehmas colt Estepona is the one that caught my eye and while he needs
to step up massively on what he has achieved to date, I don’t think he should
be written off.
Well Bred
First of all, this lad has a couple of Group 1 winners in
his pedigree. His dam, Cigalera, was a smart 3yo, placing in Listed and G3 company
and her half-sister placed in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Estepona’s great
grand-dam, is a half-sister to Group 1 winners Satwa Queen and Spadoun so while
you do have to go back a couple of generations, he is from a good family. His sire
Mehmas isn’t half bad either and he has already sired a few G1 2yo winners.
Estepona has raced twice over this C&D (both last month)
and narrowly prevailed in both. In the first race he was forced to lead, they
went a bit of a crawl before quickening 2f out and he just came out on top,
beating an Andre Fabre Godolphin hotpot by a short head.
His next start, when he beat today’s rival Epson Blue Cen,
was a bit of a farcical affair. None of the five runners wanted to lead and they
absolutely dawdled through the first couple of furlongs. Again, they quickened around 400m out and Epson Blue Cen got first run, but Estepona reeled her in close to home and his
jockey never had to resort to the persuader.
Proper Gallop
In all likelihood, it is going to be a truly run race in the
Morny. It is impossible to know how Estepona will cope when they go a proper gallop
from the outset and the recent record of French horses in this race suggests
that he may be up against it.
However, I think he might be even better in a strongly run
affair. He is a powerful looking colt who seems to be built like a proper sprinter
and he only did enough, and no more, when winning his first two races. They
haven’t looked under the bonnet properly yet and there’s no doubt that they will
in this Group 1.
Maybe he won’t have the engine to compete with these proven
Group performers, but I think he might and at the prices, he is worth throwing
some loose change at.
2024 Prix Morny Tip: Estepona e/w @ 28/1
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