One For Friday At Cheltenham

After a torrid couple of weeks on the flat, I am glad to have some jumping action to get stuck into this weekend. First of all, Famed Again was far too keen early on at the Curragh on Tuesday. My hope was that she might settle better in the hood but she didn’t and there’s also a chance that the run may have come to soon after her big run at Naas. I still think she’ll win plenty of races.

The one I am interested in at Cheltenham on Friday goes in the amateur riders’ handicap at 3.35. I am hoping that Wick Green, trained by Ben Pauling, has been aimed this race. The 11yo son of Sagamix was a fine third in this last year, beaten just 1.5L off a mark of 121. A month later, he was fourth over 3m1f back here, beaten 5.75l off 122.

He then came back for a X-Country handicap chase in December and while he only finished eighth, he was running from 12lb out of the handicap so to be beaten 13 odd lengths wasn’t a bad effort. Subsequent to that run the 11yo ran below par races at Wincanton and Southwell in February and March and he was poor again in two runs after a 143 day break at Worcester in July/August.

However, the old boy shaped much better after another short break three weeks ago. He finished third of six, 6.5L behind Musical Slave at Fontwell (26f, gd/sft). That came off 117 and the handicapper has dropped him another 2lb to 115.

That means he is now 8lb lower than when beaten 1.5l in this last year and 2lb below his last winning mark. His rider has yet to win a race under rules but after doing some digging he has ridden winners in point to points so he isn’t totally inexperienced. Good ground will suit, he has run two of the best races of his life at this venue and the first time visor might bring back some spark so at odds of 33/1, an each way bet is advised.

Cheltenham Friday Tip: 3.35 – Wick Green e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

Famed Too Big At The Curragh

It was a bad day for us on Saturday at Ascot. Sweet William landed the e/w NB place money but apart from that, it was a day to forget. It is rare that I tip up horses in midweek on this blog but I am making an exception this week. There is a Group 3 race for 2yo fillies at the Curragh tomorrow and a couple look a touch overpriced to my eye.

First of all, Tamam Desert looks big at 22/1. After shaping with huge potential on her debut at Leopardstown, she confirmed that promise by winning at the Galway Festival. She still looked pretty green that day but she ran on well to just get up in that 7f heat and on that evidence, and on her breeding, this step up to a mile looks certain to suit.

She should go well but at an even bigger price, Famed Again is very interesting. Trained by Tom Cooper, who is better known for his exploits in the National Hunt sphere, this filly finished third behind Tamam Desert in that Galway maiden. She was only 1.75l behind that rival and she didn’t get as clear a run so she is more than capable of closing that gap.

However, the run that really caught my eye was her effort in the valuable 7f Auction race at Naas won by another of today’s rivals, Fiona Maccoul. Draw in stall 2, Ronan Whelan bustled her up the inside to get a decent early position. However, once she got into that position she began to race extremely keenly, fighting her jockey for the guts of a furlong and a half.

Despite those early antics, she kept on really well late on and she just failed to get third. At the line she was just over a length behind the winner, to whom she was conceding 4lbs, and a half a length behind her in fifth was Sigh No More, a Group 3 winner at Leopardstown on her next start. She was getting 6lbs from that rival but even so, it was an excellent effort.

On pedigree there’s a good chance a mile will suit and her effort at Galway suggested it would pose no problems too. Cooper now applies the hood, which will hopefully help her to settle better, and the quiet hands of Colin Keane could be a big help in that department too.

The assessor has rated her 78 and I think he could be wrong. I think she deserves to be rated at least in the mid-80s on the back of her last two runs and the fact that Cooper is running here instead of going for a nursery suggests that he might think the same. 

Keane is 1/9 with another five top four finishes when riding for the yard (66% frame hitting strike rate) so at odds of 66/1, surely Famed Again is worth throwing a few pennies at each way. Hopefully she can nick some precious black type. 

Stevos’ Selection: Famed Again e/w @ 66/1

2024 Champions Day – Soft Ground E/W Lucky 15

At the time of writing, it looks like soft ground is a certainty for Champions Day on Saturday. We have already backed Moss Tucker e/w at 66/1 for the Sprint, you can read why here. Obviously, he’ll be one of the selections for our soft ground e/w lucky 15, find out who else is getting the nod below.

2.35 – Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes

The one that interests me at a big price here is the exceptionally well bred filly Doha. Trained by Ralph Beckett, whose horses are in red hot form, this 4yo daughter of Sea The Stars is out of Treve, a two time Arc winner that handled soft ground. She has yet to hit the heights of her extremely talented mum but she is an improving filly and she is unexposed at this 1m4f trip on testing ground.

She has managed to win three of her eight turf starts, including the Kensington Palace here at the Royal Meeting over 1m on fast ground. Yes, that was only a handicap but she has run very well in three of her four starts in stakes company, culminating in a comfortable Listed win at Saint-Cloud on her latest start earlier this month.

She ran through the line strong in that 10f contest on very soft ground and on that evidence, this 1m4f trip looks well worth a try. On her penultimate start, over 8f on good ground in a Sandown G3 she found only Tamfana too good by 2.75l and she was conceding 6lb to the subsequent Sun Chariot winner who is now rated 118. That form looks alright to me, she has form figures of 1122 on soft ground and if this trip ekes out a bit more improvement, she could sneak into the frame here at odds of 33/1.

2024 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes Tip: Doha e/w @ 33/1

3.15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Charyn is a really likeable colt and he is going to be hard to beat here. However, like Tamfana, he’ll be having his seventh run of the season so there is a chance that they might be vulnerable to a fresher horse.

The one that looks most overpriced to me back on soft ground is the Roger Teal trained Dancing Gemini. He’s had just four runs this season and his best run, by far, came in the French 2000 Guineas on his first run back. He finished off his race powerfully for second, half a length behind Metropolitan who is an 8/1 shot here.

Since then, Metropolitan has run crackers in a pair of 8f G1s here and at Deauville, whereas things have not gone as smoothly for Dancing Gemini. Teal was convinced he’d stay further than a mile, but he doesn’t. He ran a creditable race in the Epsom Derby to finish sixth, but he faded late on. Even 10f proved too much of a stretch on his penultimate start at Sandown.

Last time out, Dancing Gemini ran in a Goodwood G3 back at a mile but I don’t think he was in love with the good to firm ground. He’s been given a 78 day break since, so he should be nice and fresh for this first run at a mile on soft ground since the French Guineas. He is 5x the price of Metropolitan, with whom he has just half a length to find on that Longchamp form. If he can repeat that run, Dancing Gemini can outrun his odds of 40/1.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Tip: Dancing Gemini e/w @ 40/1

4.35 – Balmoral Handicap

The final leg of our soft ground e/w lucky 15 is going to be Star Of Orion. Trained by the in form Eve Johnson Houghton, this son of Footstepsinthesand is a very consistent animal. Yes, he has only won three of his thirty two starts but he has finished second or third on thirteen occasions and since 2023, he has finished out of the first four just three times in fourteen starts.

His last win came off 91 on good to soft ground at Newmarket in July 2023. Since then he has hit the frame off 97 here over 7f, twice at Sandown off 96 and he was far from disgraced finishing seventh off that mark over 7f back here again earlier this month.

The 6yo has some solid form at this track. He has been beaten less than a length twice in big field 7f handicaps off 94 and 95 and he was beaten a short head off 97 here over 7f back in 2021. Is he well handicapped off 96? Probably not, but he has shown on multiple occasions he can be competitive off this kind of mark and at the prices we are playing at, a place will do.

He has yet to win over a mile or on soft ground but he has run some huge races in defeat. A year ago at York he was beaten 1.25L off 95 on soft ground over 1m at York and at Newmarket earlier this season, he was beaten 0.5l on good ground at 8f off 94. If he can finish as close to the winner here, it’ll hopefully be enough to get the place so at 33/1, Star Of Orion is the e/w selection.

2024 Balmoral Handicap Selection: Star Of Orion e/w @ 33/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

So, these are our four legs for our Champions Day Soft Ground e/w Lucky 15:

Champions Sprint: Moss Tucker @ 50/1

Champions Fillies And Mares: Doha @ 33/1

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes: Dancing Gemini @ 40/1

Balmoral Handicap: Star Of Orion @ 33/1

-DaveStevos

Mossy Can Prosper In The Muck At Ascot

Last weekend, most of my selections got stuck in the mud at Newmarket and York. Conditions look like being equally as gruelling at Ascot for Champions Day and if it comes up soft or heavy, Moss Tucker can make his presence felt in the Sprint.

We have done well in this race in the past. Donjuan Triumphant won for us at 33s, Brando was beaten a nose at 80s and we also had Run To Freedom in 2022 when he finished second at 150/1. Moss Tucker is currently chalked up at 66/1 but he is capable of making a mockery of those odds if he gets his favoured underhoof conditions.

It looks like this son of Excelebration has been trained for a backend soft ground campaign. After looking better than ever on his seasonal return in April at Naas (5f, yielding), he then disappointed on good ground at the Curragh in May. He was left off for over three months after that run and he made his return in the Sprint Cup at Haydock.

Unfortunately, the ground was good that day, just as it was when he ran down the field in the Flying Five at the Currah. Two weeks ago he did get soft ground in the L’Abbaye at Longchamp but unfortunately, the draw gods conspired against him and he never figured.

He didn’t have a hard race that day and I believe 6f on testing ground on a track like Ascot should really suit him. His career form figure on soft to heavy/heavy read 1151 with the fifth coming when he probably needed the run on his seasonal comeback last year. One of the wins came over 6f at the Curragh, where he beat Big Gossey by almost 4l.

Moss Tucker is already a Group 1 winner over 5f, he’s won a Group 3 over 6f and he’s a triple Listed winner at 5f/6f. He’s been totally written off for this by the bookies and to be honest, that is understandable on the back of his last four runs.

However, as I pointed out earlier, he has had excuses for all of those efforts and I think we’ll see a much better version of Mossy at Ascot on Saturday. At odds of 66/1, he is worth backing each way. Fingers crossed for lots of rain!

2024 Champions Sprint Stakes Tip: Moss Tucker e/w @ 66/1

-DaveStevos