At the time of writing, it looks like soft ground is a certainty for Champions Day on Saturday. We have already backed Moss Tucker e/w at 66/1 for the Sprint, you can read why here. Obviously, he’ll be one of the selections for our soft ground e/w lucky 15, find out who else is getting the nod below.
2.35 – Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes
The one that interests me at a big price here is the
exceptionally well bred filly Doha. Trained by Ralph Beckett, whose horses are
in red hot form, this 4yo daughter of Sea The Stars is out of Treve, a two time
Arc winner that handled soft ground. She has yet to hit the heights of her
extremely talented mum but she is an improving filly and she is unexposed at
this 1m4f trip on testing ground.
She has managed to win three of her eight turf starts,
including the Kensington Palace here at the Royal Meeting over 1m on fast
ground. Yes, that was only a handicap but she has run very well in three of her
four starts in stakes company, culminating in a comfortable Listed win at
Saint-Cloud on her latest start earlier this month.
She ran through the line strong in that 10f contest on very
soft ground and on that evidence, this 1m4f trip looks well worth a try. On her
penultimate start, over 8f on good ground in a Sandown G3 she found only
Tamfana too good by 2.75l and she was conceding 6lb to the subsequent Sun
Chariot winner who is now rated 118. That form looks alright to me, she has
form figures of 1122 on soft ground and if this trip ekes out a bit more
improvement, she could sneak into the frame here at odds of 33/1.
2024 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes Tip: Doha e/w @
33/1
3.15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Charyn is a really likeable colt and he is going to be hard
to beat here. However, like Tamfana, he’ll be having his seventh run of the
season so there is a chance that they might be vulnerable to a fresher horse.
The one that looks most overpriced to me back on soft ground
is the Roger Teal trained Dancing Gemini. He’s had just four runs this season
and his best run, by far, came in the French 2000 Guineas on his first run
back. He finished off his race powerfully for second, half a length behind
Metropolitan who is an 8/1 shot here.
Since then, Metropolitan has run crackers in a pair of 8f
G1s here and at Deauville, whereas things have not gone as smoothly for Dancing
Gemini. Teal was convinced he’d stay further than a mile, but he doesn’t. He
ran a creditable race in the Epsom Derby to finish sixth, but he faded late on.
Even 10f proved too much of a stretch on his penultimate start at Sandown.
Last time out, Dancing Gemini ran in a Goodwood G3 back at a
mile but I don’t think he was in love with the good to firm ground. He’s been
given a 78 day break since, so he should be nice and fresh for this first run
at a mile on soft ground since the French Guineas. He is 5x the price of
Metropolitan, with whom he has just half a length to find on that Longchamp
form. If he can repeat that run, Dancing Gemini can outrun his odds of 40/1.
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Tip: Dancing Gemini e/w @ 40/1
4.35 – Balmoral Handicap
The final leg of our soft ground e/w lucky 15 is going to be
Star Of Orion. Trained by the in form Eve Johnson Houghton, this son of
Footstepsinthesand is a very consistent animal. Yes, he has only won three of
his thirty two starts but he has finished second or third on thirteen occasions
and since 2023, he has finished out of the first four just three times in
fourteen starts.
His last win came off 91 on good to soft ground at Newmarket
in July 2023. Since then he has hit the frame off 97 here over 7f, twice at
Sandown off 96 and he was far from disgraced finishing seventh off that mark
over 7f back here again earlier this month.
The 6yo has some solid form at this track. He has been
beaten less than a length twice in big field 7f handicaps off 94 and 95 and he
was beaten a short head off 97 here over 7f back in 2021. Is he well
handicapped off 96? Probably not, but he has shown on multiple occasions he can
be competitive off this kind of mark and at the prices we are playing at, a
place will do.
He has yet to win over a mile or on soft ground but he has
run some huge races in defeat. A year ago at York he was beaten 1.25L off 95 on
soft ground over 1m at York and at Newmarket earlier this season, he was beaten
0.5l on good ground at 8f off 94. If he can finish as close to the winner here,
it’ll hopefully be enough to get the place so at 33/1, Star Of Orion is the e/w
selection.
2024 Balmoral Handicap Selection: Star Of Orion e/w @
33/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)
So, these are our four legs for our Champions Day Soft
Ground e/w Lucky 15:
Champions Sprint: Moss Tucker @ 50/1
Champions Fillies And Mares: Doha @ 33/1
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes: Dancing Gemini @ 40/1
Balmoral Handicap: Star Of Orion @ 33/1
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