2024 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Sunday Preview

Navajo Indy ensured it was a profitable day on Saturday. Sam Brown found things happening too quickly on the fast ground and Kinondo Kwetu just missed the place in fifth. On Sunday the focus switches to Fairyhouse in Ireland for their Hatton’s Grace and Royal Bond meeting. Last year, we managed to find Street Value at 25s in the Porterstown, hopefully we can land another biggie today.

12.00 – Mares’ Handicap Chase (140 = 11st 12lb)

The ground was officially described as yielding on Saturday but the times suggested that the chase course was a shade quicker than the hurdles course. Conditions might be a shade lively for the market leader La Malmaison and she lacks a run. The trip might be a touch short for Nine Graces and there are also trip and ground concerns for Sainte Dona.

The most solid option is probably the locally trained Must Be Obeyed. A course winner over 21.5f on soft to heavy, she has placed plenty of times on good to yielding, she is best going right handed and she shaped really nicely on good ground in a Listed chase on her seasonal bow. Only two are priced up at double figures and I don’t fancy either of them so this is a race I am going to leave alone. No bet.

Stevos’ Selection: No Bet

12.30 – Bar One Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 3)

The one I like here at half-decent odds is the Willie McCreery trained Coul Dreamer. This horse first came to my attention on his debut at Gowran in August when he was backed at big odds. He finished a fine third in that contest on good to firm and he proved he could handle softer conditions when third in another maiden at Roscommon in October.

He was allowed to go off at 16/1 for his hurdling debut at Punchestown early last month. He made a mockery of those odds, making all in fine style to score by 9l. He beat two well punted Joseph O’Brien horses that day and bar making one error, he jumped pretty nicely.

Now, the Willie Mullins’ French recruit Willy De Houelly could obviously be anything and will likely be fit for his first run for 218 days but the oddsmakers underestimated Coul Dreamer on debut and I am hoping they are doing the same again. At 10/1, he is the each way selection.

Stevos’ Selection: Coul Dreamer e/w @ 10/1 NAP

1.05 – Porterstown Handicap Chase (Listed)

Last year Street Value ended a dire run for us in this race. He is back to defend his crown but unfortunately, he won’t get his favoured bottomless ground this time. The horse I am interested in at huge odds here is the Liz Doyle trained Flash De Touzaine.

This son of Kapgarde is 40/1 and to be fair, that’s probably justified given that he is 1-16 over fences. However, when he is on a going day he is a decent animal, such as when he was a fine 3.75l third behind Kitty’s Light in the 2023 Scottish Grand National (32f, good).

That run came off 130 and he races off 124 here. He shaped ok when fifth over 3m in a handicap hurdle at Gowran back in October and the trip was a valid excuse for his below par effort on his last start over fences at Galway. He ran much better at that track when fourth in the Blazers in August and previous to that, he finished a good second behind Railway Hurricane in a handicap chase at Wexford in July (19.5f, gd).

He ran a cracker on his only previous visit to this venue in a novice chase back in January 2022. He’s had very few chances over marathon trips on yielding or quicker and if he can rediscover the form he showed at Ayr last year, surely Flash De Touzaine can outrun his odds of 40/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Flash De Touzaine e/w @ 40/1 (5 places) NB

1.35 – Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)

As is often the case, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins hold strong hands in this. They have won all but one of the last ten renewals and in that time, only one winner has been chalked up at double figure odds.

Last season’s Champion Bumper runner up Romeo Coolio brings a big reputation into the race and he has been put in as the odds on fav. He won a bumper here, he hacked up on his hurdling debut last month and he is probably going to be hard to beat.

No Mug

His stablemate Bleu De Vassy is no mug either. He won his maiden hurdle here over 18f (good) and he followed up in a 2m Grade 3 at Navan last month. Belloccio is a top class horse on the flat and he is the shortest of the Mullins’ quintet. Sea Of Sands is another quality flat performer and it is pretty hard to see those four out of the frame.

However, with a rating of 138 and an experience edge over most of his rivals, I am taking a chance on Tounsivator. Short headed in the Tribes at Galway (16.5f, good to yielding), he hacked up on his next start in a novice at Kilbeggan (18.5f, good) and he wasn’t disgraced in a Listed handicap at Listowel on his last start.

This ground should be fine for him, he likes going right handed and the last time an ‘outsider’ won this, Danny Mullins was on board. At odds of 18/1, Tounsivator is the each way tip.

Stevos’ Selection: Tounsivator e/w @ 18/1

2.05 – Drinmore Novice Chase (Grade 1)

Just six runners and it is hard to see beyond the fav Firefox. He jumped nicely on his chase debut, he has won round here before over hurdles and he was mixing it at the top table last season over timber. Heart Wood and Gorgeous Tom might make a race of it for the in-form Henry De Bromhead but this is a race to just watch and enjoy for me. No bet.

Stevos’ Selection: No Bet

2.40 – Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (Grade 1)

The lowest turnout for this race since Voler La Vedette won in 2011. It features the champion staying hurdler Teahupoo against a speedier sort in Lossiemouth.  Who wins? With those two priced up at 6/5 and 4/5 respectively, to be honest, I couldn’t give a monkey’s. A crap race. No bet.

Stevos’ Selection: No bet

3.10 – Bar One Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

A nice and easy get out of jail stakes with fifteen going to post for this 16.5f Listed handicap hurdle. In the hope that the return to this venue sparks a resurgence in form, I’ll take a chance on Glan at a nice e/w price here.

Trained by Gordon Elliott, this inconsistent mare didn’t run too badly on her penultimate start on the flat at Bellewstown in August. A slow start was no good to her over 1m1f at Listowel last time out and she wasn’t totally disgraced on her last start in this sphere when finishing in midfield in a mares’ handicap at the Galway Festival.

Her form figures at this track over hurdles read 121. She won her maiden here, she was second in this race in 2021 and then in 2022 she landed a nice pot in a handicap hurdle at the Irish Grand National meeting. That win came off 123 and with Carl Millar’s 5lb claim, she is effectively just 4lb higher here.

Maybe she is gone at the game, but maybe she isn’t and if she is going to bounce back, this is the most likely place it will happen. So, at odds of 20/1, a small e/w interest on Glan is advised.

Stevos’ Selection: Glan e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Cheltenham Sunday Preview

We have already backed Churchstonewarrior for the Troytown, read why here. I also have one for the Greatwood tomorrow. Each way singles and an e/w double advised.

3.30 Cheltenham – Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

All the talk in the lead up to this race has been about Dysart Enos. I have heard some pundits say she is the best handicapped horse in training, which might well be true, but as regular readers of the blog will know, I am not a fan of backing horses on their handicap debuts.

This mare has had just three starts over hurdles and they came in novice hurdles. In those races, probably at least 75% of her rivals were only out for a spin to get a mark, whereas in this ultra-competitive sixteen runner handicap, a lot more horses will be there to do their best.

Her lack of experience in races like this has to rate as a big negative and she also lacks a run. Now, on  a literal reading of her bumper win when beating Golden Ace would suggest a mark of 131 is generous, but whether she will be able to exploit it today is another question altogether.

Battle Hardened

The one I am going to back has already won a similarly competitive, big field handicap and we were on him at a nice price when he won it. Cracking Rhapsody, trained up in Scotland by Ewan Whillans, landed the Morebattle at Kelso in March off a mark of 119. He absolutely hosed up and he then followed that up with a sterling effort in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr, beat a length off 128.

He made his return to action at Hexham in a Mickey Mouse handicap early last month and he shaped well in a race that wasn’t run to suit. He is suited by big fields and a proper gallop, and he should get both of those things today. Craig Nichol knows him well, he has already placed in a hot handicap off just 1lb lower than he is here and the ground should be fine for him. At odds of 22/1, back Cracking Rhapsody e/w.

2024 Cheltenham & Navan Sunday Tip: Cracking Rhapsody e/w @ 22/1 (5 places) NB

Also: Cracking Rhapsody 22s & Churchstonewarrior 14s e/w double (both 5 places)

Warrior Can Strike In The Troytown

This Sunday at Navan we have one of the first major staying handicap chases of the season. The Troytown Chase is a race that Gordon Elliott likes to target and he has won it six times since 2014. Last year he had four of the first five finishers, including the 20/1 winner, Coko Beach.

This year, Elliott is responsible for twelve of the remaining 25 entries and all the talk has been about American Mike, who has been put in as the 5/1 ante-post favourite. A Grade 2 novice chase winner over C&D on heavy in February, his best form is on testing ground and he won’t be getting those conditions on Sunday, if the weather forecast is correct.

The one I have come down on is another C&D winner but unlike the fav, his peak efforts have come on ground with good in the description. Churchstonewarrior will be having his third start for Cian Collins on Sunday. He shaped ok on his stable debut at Tramore after a break and he then ran a lovely race on soft ground when fourth behind Flooring Porter in the Kerry National at Listowel in September.

Yes, he was beaten 20l behind the runaway winner but he got hampered at the tenth fence and he finished well ahead of the likes of Zanahiyr and Perceval Legallois, both of whom could re-oppose here. I thought it was a very pleasing effort considering the underfoot conditions and he’ll be much better suited by the sounder surface on Sunday.

When he won his Grade 2 novice here in 2023 it was on good to yielding ground, the same type of ground on which he won his novice hurdle. In that Grade 2 Chase he beat Mahler Mission by 0.75l off level weights and he is now rated 155, Churchstonewarrior runs off 146 here. Since then, he hasn’t hit the same heights but in his defence, he’s only had his favoured ground once and that was for his Kerry National prep run.

I am hoping that returning to the scene of his career best performance and the prospect of nice ground will enable this son of Mahler to get his head back in front. He should be fully fit now after two runs for Cian Collins and given that he has won here before, this may have always been the aim. Once the rain stays away, Churchstonewarrior is capable of running a massive race and he is worth backing e/w at odds of 16/1.

2024 Troytown Chase Tip: Churchstonewarrior e/w @ 16/1 NAP (1/4 odds, 4 places)

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip

The race that stops a nation and also the race I can never seem to get right. I think I have managed one place in the last five years but God loves a trier, as the saying goes, se we’ll do just that and try again.

The one that will have to carry the double penalty of the Stevos’ shilling this year is the former Andrew Balding inmate, Saint George. Now trained Down Under by Ciaron Maher, this 4yo grey son of Roaring Lion was good enough to place second in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase last year when trained by Balding. He found just Gregory too good by 0.5l and that horse hasn’t been beaten far in some top staying races this season.

He got to within 4.25l of Kyprios when third in the Goodwood Cup (a head behind Sweet William). At York in the G2 Lonsdale Cup he was 3l behind the fav for this race, Vauban, off level weights. So, on a line through Gregory, Saint George looks weighted to beat that rival getting 12lbs from him.

Two Fine Efforts

This lad has had three runs since moving to Australia and two of them have been fine efforts. On his Aussie debut he was beaten just half a length in a G3 handicap at Caulfield over 10f. He just lacked the pace to get up in the final furlong but he kept on well and it was a very encouraging effort considering it was his first run for over a year.

Two weeks later he didn’t run to his best at Flemington upped to 12f but the ground was good to soft and this horse is best on good or quicker. Even so, he seemed to handle the track well and despite finishing ninth, he was beaten just over 4l for the win.

Last time out in the Moonee Valley Cup it was much more like it. Dropped out early, his jockey was in no hurry to put him into the race. With just 200m to go he was still last and seemingly going nowhere but once his rider got stuck into him, with less than 100m to go, he picked up really well and finished off very strongly for fifth.

He finished just 3l behind Okita Sushi and he is 2lb better off with that rival now. He was 0.5l behind Sharp And Smart and I think he can turn that form around over this longer trip. Going up to two miles should really suit this fella and his dam is by Galileo, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue.

I am not too familiar with his jockey, Tyler Schiller, but he has ridden three winners in the last fortnight so he won’t be lacking in confidence. With no rain forecast, Saint George should get his favoured underfoot conditions and with five places on offer, he is worth chancing each way at odds of 25/1.

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip: Saint George e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos