2024 Cheltenham Sunday Preview

We have already backed Churchstonewarrior for the Troytown, read why here. I also have one for the Greatwood tomorrow. Each way singles and an e/w double advised.

3.30 Cheltenham – Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

All the talk in the lead up to this race has been about Dysart Enos. I have heard some pundits say she is the best handicapped horse in training, which might well be true, but as regular readers of the blog will know, I am not a fan of backing horses on their handicap debuts.

This mare has had just three starts over hurdles and they came in novice hurdles. In those races, probably at least 75% of her rivals were only out for a spin to get a mark, whereas in this ultra-competitive sixteen runner handicap, a lot more horses will be there to do their best.

Her lack of experience in races like this has to rate as a big negative and she also lacks a run. Now, on  a literal reading of her bumper win when beating Golden Ace would suggest a mark of 131 is generous, but whether she will be able to exploit it today is another question altogether.

Battle Hardened

The one I am going to back has already won a similarly competitive, big field handicap and we were on him at a nice price when he won it. Cracking Rhapsody, trained up in Scotland by Ewan Whillans, landed the Morebattle at Kelso in March off a mark of 119. He absolutely hosed up and he then followed that up with a sterling effort in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr, beat a length off 128.

He made his return to action at Hexham in a Mickey Mouse handicap early last month and he shaped well in a race that wasn’t run to suit. He is suited by big fields and a proper gallop, and he should get both of those things today. Craig Nichol knows him well, he has already placed in a hot handicap off just 1lb lower than he is here and the ground should be fine for him. At odds of 22/1, back Cracking Rhapsody e/w.

2024 Cheltenham & Navan Sunday Tip: Cracking Rhapsody e/w @ 22/1 (5 places) NB

Also: Cracking Rhapsody 22s & Churchstonewarrior 14s e/w double (both 5 places)

Warrior Can Strike In The Troytown

This Sunday at Navan we have one of the first major staying handicap chases of the season. The Troytown Chase is a race that Gordon Elliott likes to target and he has won it six times since 2014. Last year he had four of the first five finishers, including the 20/1 winner, Coko Beach.

This year, Elliott is responsible for twelve of the remaining 25 entries and all the talk has been about American Mike, who has been put in as the 5/1 ante-post favourite. A Grade 2 novice chase winner over C&D on heavy in February, his best form is on testing ground and he won’t be getting those conditions on Sunday, if the weather forecast is correct.

The one I have come down on is another C&D winner but unlike the fav, his peak efforts have come on ground with good in the description. Churchstonewarrior will be having his third start for Cian Collins on Sunday. He shaped ok on his stable debut at Tramore after a break and he then ran a lovely race on soft ground when fourth behind Flooring Porter in the Kerry National at Listowel in September.

Yes, he was beaten 20l behind the runaway winner but he got hampered at the tenth fence and he finished well ahead of the likes of Zanahiyr and Perceval Legallois, both of whom could re-oppose here. I thought it was a very pleasing effort considering the underfoot conditions and he’ll be much better suited by the sounder surface on Sunday.

When he won his Grade 2 novice here in 2023 it was on good to yielding ground, the same type of ground on which he won his novice hurdle. In that Grade 2 Chase he beat Mahler Mission by 0.75l off level weights and he is now rated 155, Churchstonewarrior runs off 146 here. Since then, he hasn’t hit the same heights but in his defence, he’s only had his favoured ground once and that was for his Kerry National prep run.

I am hoping that returning to the scene of his career best performance and the prospect of nice ground will enable this son of Mahler to get his head back in front. He should be fully fit now after two runs for Cian Collins and given that he has won here before, this may have always been the aim. Once the rain stays away, Churchstonewarrior is capable of running a massive race and he is worth backing e/w at odds of 16/1.

2024 Troytown Chase Tip: Churchstonewarrior e/w @ 16/1 NAP (1/4 odds, 4 places)

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip

The race that stops a nation and also the race I can never seem to get right. I think I have managed one place in the last five years but God loves a trier, as the saying goes, se we’ll do just that and try again.

The one that will have to carry the double penalty of the Stevos’ shilling this year is the former Andrew Balding inmate, Saint George. Now trained Down Under by Ciaron Maher, this 4yo grey son of Roaring Lion was good enough to place second in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase last year when trained by Balding. He found just Gregory too good by 0.5l and that horse hasn’t been beaten far in some top staying races this season.

He got to within 4.25l of Kyprios when third in the Goodwood Cup (a head behind Sweet William). At York in the G2 Lonsdale Cup he was 3l behind the fav for this race, Vauban, off level weights. So, on a line through Gregory, Saint George looks weighted to beat that rival getting 12lbs from him.

Two Fine Efforts

This lad has had three runs since moving to Australia and two of them have been fine efforts. On his Aussie debut he was beaten just half a length in a G3 handicap at Caulfield over 10f. He just lacked the pace to get up in the final furlong but he kept on well and it was a very encouraging effort considering it was his first run for over a year.

Two weeks later he didn’t run to his best at Flemington upped to 12f but the ground was good to soft and this horse is best on good or quicker. Even so, he seemed to handle the track well and despite finishing ninth, he was beaten just over 4l for the win.

Last time out in the Moonee Valley Cup it was much more like it. Dropped out early, his jockey was in no hurry to put him into the race. With just 200m to go he was still last and seemingly going nowhere but once his rider got stuck into him, with less than 100m to go, he picked up really well and finished off very strongly for fifth.

He finished just 3l behind Okita Sushi and he is 2lb better off with that rival now. He was 0.5l behind Sharp And Smart and I think he can turn that form around over this longer trip. Going up to two miles should really suit this fella and his dam is by Galileo, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue.

I am not too familiar with his jockey, Tyler Schiller, but he has ridden three winners in the last fortnight so he won’t be lacking in confidence. With no rain forecast, Saint George should get his favoured underfoot conditions and with five places on offer, he is worth chancing each way at odds of 25/1.

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip: Saint George e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos