Saturday, 30 November 2024

2024 Fairyhouse Winter Festival Sunday Preview

Navajo Indy ensured it was a profitable day on Saturday. Sam Brown found things happening too quickly on the fast ground and Kinondo Kwetu just missed the place in fifth. On Sunday the focus switches to Fairyhouse in Ireland for their Hatton’s Grace and Royal Bond meeting. Last year, we managed to find Street Value at 25s in the Porterstown, hopefully we can land another biggie today.

12.00 – Mares’ Handicap Chase (140 = 11st 12lb)

The ground was officially described as yielding on Saturday but the times suggested that the chase course was a shade quicker than the hurdles course. Conditions might be a shade lively for the market leader La Malmaison and she lacks a run. The trip might be a touch short for Nine Graces and there are also trip and ground concerns for Sainte Dona.

The most solid option is probably the locally trained Must Be Obeyed. A course winner over 21.5f on soft to heavy, she has placed plenty of times on good to yielding, she is best going right handed and she shaped really nicely on good ground in a Listed chase on her seasonal bow. Only two are priced up at double figures and I don’t fancy either of them so this is a race I am going to leave alone. No bet.

Stevos’ Selection: No Bet

12.30 – Bar One Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 3)

The one I like here at half-decent odds is the Willie McCreery trained Coul Dreamer. This horse first came to my attention on his debut at Gowran in August when he was backed at big odds. He finished a fine third in that contest on good to firm and he proved he could handle softer conditions when third in another maiden at Roscommon in October.

He was allowed to go off at 16/1 for his hurdling debut at Punchestown early last month. He made a mockery of those odds, making all in fine style to score by 9l. He beat two well punted Joseph O’Brien horses that day and bar making one error, he jumped pretty nicely.

Now, the Willie Mullins’ French recruit Willy De Houelly could obviously be anything and will likely be fit for his first run for 218 days but the oddsmakers underestimated Coul Dreamer on debut and I am hoping they are doing the same again. At 10/1, he is the each way selection.

Stevos’ Selection: Coul Dreamer e/w @ 10/1 NAP

1.05 – Porterstown Handicap Chase (Listed)

Last year Street Value ended a dire run for us in this race. He is back to defend his crown but unfortunately, he won’t get his favoured bottomless ground this time. The horse I am interested in at huge odds here is the Liz Doyle trained Flash De Touzaine.

This son of Kapgarde is 40/1 and to be fair, that’s probably justified given that he is 1-16 over fences. However, when he is on a going day he is a decent animal, such as when he was a fine 3.75l third behind Kitty’s Light in the 2023 Scottish Grand National (32f, good).

That run came off 130 and he races off 124 here. He shaped ok when fifth over 3m in a handicap hurdle at Gowran back in October and the trip was a valid excuse for his below par effort on his last start over fences at Galway. He ran much better at that track when fourth in the Blazers in August and previous to that, he finished a good second behind Railway Hurricane in a handicap chase at Wexford in July (19.5f, gd).

He ran a cracker on his only previous visit to this venue in a novice chase back in January 2022. He’s had very few chances over marathon trips on yielding or quicker and if he can rediscover the form he showed at Ayr last year, surely Flash De Touzaine can outrun his odds of 40/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Flash De Touzaine e/w @ 40/1 (5 places) NB

1.35 – Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)

As is often the case, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins hold strong hands in this. They have won all but one of the last ten renewals and in that time, only one winner has been chalked up at double figure odds.

Last season’s Champion Bumper runner up Romeo Coolio brings a big reputation into the race and he has been put in as the odds on fav. He won a bumper here, he hacked up on his hurdling debut last month and he is probably going to be hard to beat.

No Mug

His stablemate Bleu De Vassy is no mug either. He won his maiden hurdle here over 18f (good) and he followed up in a 2m Grade 3 at Navan last month. Belloccio is a top class horse on the flat and he is the shortest of the Mullins’ quintet. Sea Of Sands is another quality flat performer and it is pretty hard to see those four out of the frame.

However, with a rating of 138 and an experience edge over most of his rivals, I am taking a chance on Tounsivator. Short headed in the Tribes at Galway (16.5f, good to yielding), he hacked up on his next start in a novice at Kilbeggan (18.5f, good) and he wasn’t disgraced in a Listed handicap at Listowel on his last start.

This ground should be fine for him, he likes going right handed and the last time an ‘outsider’ won this, Danny Mullins was on board. At odds of 18/1, Tounsivator is the each way tip.

Stevos’ Selection: Tounsivator e/w @ 18/1

2.05 – Drinmore Novice Chase (Grade 1)

Just six runners and it is hard to see beyond the fav Firefox. He jumped nicely on his chase debut, he has won round here before over hurdles and he was mixing it at the top table last season over timber. Heart Wood and Gorgeous Tom might make a race of it for the in-form Henry De Bromhead but this is a race to just watch and enjoy for me. No bet.

Stevos’ Selection: No Bet

2.40 – Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (Grade 1)

The lowest turnout for this race since Voler La Vedette won in 2011. It features the champion staying hurdler Teahupoo against a speedier sort in Lossiemouth.  Who wins? With those two priced up at 6/5 and 4/5 respectively, to be honest, I couldn’t give a monkey’s. A crap race. No bet.

Stevos’ Selection: No bet

3.10 – Bar One Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

A nice and easy get out of jail stakes with fifteen going to post for this 16.5f Listed handicap hurdle. In the hope that the return to this venue sparks a resurgence in form, I’ll take a chance on Glan at a nice e/w price here.

Trained by Gordon Elliott, this inconsistent mare didn’t run too badly on her penultimate start on the flat at Bellewstown in August. A slow start was no good to her over 1m1f at Listowel last time out and she wasn’t totally disgraced on her last start in this sphere when finishing in midfield in a mares’ handicap at the Galway Festival.

Her form figures at this track over hurdles read 121. She won her maiden here, she was second in this race in 2021 and then in 2022 she landed a nice pot in a handicap hurdle at the Irish Grand National meeting. That win came off 123 and with Carl Millar’s 5lb claim, she is effectively just 4lb higher here.

Maybe she is gone at the game, but maybe she isn’t and if she is going to bounce back, this is the most likely place it will happen. So, at odds of 20/1, a small e/w interest on Glan is advised.

Stevos’ Selection: Glan e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

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