It was a mixed bag for us on Boxing Day. Our four e/w lucky
15 tips failed to fire, though I thought Depalma shaped ok despite being given
far too much to do. We did better in the UK with
Good And Clever placing at 33s and our 16/1 NAP Kinondo Kwetu finishing like a
train for second. The Welsh National is one of a few cracking races on ITV on
Friday, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday preview
below.
1.20 Kempton – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
A trappy enough race and perhaps last year’s fourth Fortuna
Ligna can go well. Trained by Anthony Honeyball, this consistent mare has to
run from 6lb out of the weights here today. However, she will be ridden by a
10lb claimer who is 2/15 with nine top four finishes when riding for this yard.
With Chad Bement’s claim she’ll be effectively running off
105 and she was running off 110 when beaten 5l in this race last season. Her
last win came off 105 at Perth back in April and she shaped pleasingly enough
when staying on for third at Ascot on her latest start at the end of last
month.
Good ground is fine for her and given how well she ran last year,
I am hoping she has been targeted at this contest again. At odds of 20/1, Fortuna
Ligna is the each way selection.
2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: Fortuna Ligna e/w
@ 20/1
1.40 Chepstow – Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)
The French raider Nietzsche Has is a warm order for this
Grade 2 hurdle for the 3yos. It is never easy to weight up French form vs UK
form but he has won a Grade 3, he’s been placed in a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 and
he does look a nice prospect.
Opec will head the home challenge for James Owen and The Gredley
Family. The daughter of Sea The Moon is unbeaten when completing over hurdles
(3/3), her sole defeat coming when she fell with the race at her mercy on her hurdling
debut at Market Rasen in June. Today will tell us a lot more about her
credentials.
It’s hard to believe Hot Fuss is already running over timber
after finishing a close fifth in the Windsor Castle at Ascot last year. He’s a
talented horse though and it would be no surprise were he to go well. To be
honest, this looks like a race that will probably be dominated by the horses at
the head of the market so we’ll swerve it. No bet.
2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: No bet
1.55 Kempton – Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Constitution Hill put Lossiemouth in her place here on
Thursday, can the unbeaten Sir Gino give Nicky Henderson more to shout about as
he takes on the Mullins’ winning machine, Ballyburn. The Henderson horse is
making his chasing debut, whereas Ballyburn has already had a sighter over the
bigger obstacles, winning in facile fashion at Punchestown.
Clearly, both horses are extremely talented hurdlers, it’ll just
depend who takes better to this game. Given that Sir Gino has yet to jump a
fence in public, you’d probably just favour the Irish raider but as the betting
indicates, it is essentially a coin toss. Another race to just watch and enjoy.
No bet.
2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: No bet
2.30 Kempton – Desert Orchid Handicap Chase (Grade 2)
Frustratingly, Calico has been taken out of this race so
only seven run. If there were three places on offer I’d be backing Soul Icon
e/w at 18s with Harry Cobden on board but unfortunately, most firms are paying
just two. Unfortunately, this is a no bet race.
2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: No Bet
2.50 Chepstow – Welsh Grand National (Premier)
Finally, a decent betting heat, though I must admit I haven’t
backed a Welsh National winner since Notre Pere won it for Jim Dreaper all the
way back in 2008. A shocking record, but hopefully this is the year that
changes.
So who is going to have to carry the weight of the Stevos’
shillings this year? Apologies in advance
to connections, but I think this stamina test will be right up Stuzzikini’s
street. I put this horse up for the Racing Post when he won a 3m2f heat at
Sligo back in October. My main angle was that all he does is stay, and he
proved me right on that occasion, hacking up by 14 lengths.
Since then, he has run three times, twice in valuable
staying handicaps. He ran on well for fifth behind Real Steel in the Munster
National in October and then last time out, he finished off strongly again to
land the Grade 3 Troytown Chase at Navan in mid-November. He won that off 131
and he is 9lb higher here but he is unexposed at marathon trips over fences and
I think he can still be competitive off his UK mark of 140.
Soft ground is absolutely fine for this 6yo son of Champs
Elysees and 3m6f around Chepstow could really suit him. He’ll have the
assistance of the talented Jordan Gainford in the plate and he’s been given
plenty of time to get over his Navan exertions. He’s usually held up, so a degree
of luck will be required, but if he gets a clear passage, hopefully Stuzzikini
will stay on strongly in the closing stages for a place at the very least.
2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: Stuzzikini e/w @
14/1 (5 places) NAP
3.00 Leopardstown – Paddy Power Handicap Chase (listed)
A nice and easy finish to the day for us with a 28 runner handicap at Leopardstown. Three Card Brag heads the market at 17/2 but I wouldn’t be rushing to back him given his lack of experience in big field handicaps. The first-time blinkers are an unknown too. The 12/1 second fav Pinkerton, on the other hand, won the 22 runner Galway Plate earlier this year so I’d rather be on him than on the Elliott horse.
Is there anything at a huge price worth backing? Well given
that I fancy Stuzzikini to go well in the Welsh National, I can’t ignore the claims
of the horse that chased him home in the Troytown, the John Ryan trained Lucid
Dreams.
This horse has form figures of 23 in Grade 3 handicap chases
at 3 miles. He was obviously second in the Troytown off 142, and he was third
in the Kerry National at Listowel off the same mark. He races off 3lb higher here,
so he may be on a tough mark as far as winning is concerned, but if he reproduces
his Troytown effort, it should be good enough to get the place money.
The son of Arcadio is a prominent racer, so he should be
able to stay out of trouble and that is a plus in a field of this size. He acts
on left handed tracks, Daniel King had a sighter on him at Navan over an inadequate
trip last month and yielding ground is fine for him. Given the nature of the race,
he isn’t one for max stakes but at 40/1, Lucid Dreams is the e/w selection.
2024 Kempton & Chepstow Friday Tip: Lucid Dreams e/w
@ 40/1 (6 places)
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