Monday, 6 January 2025

Titan Could Ascend In Lanzarote

This weekend Kempton hosts the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle. Dan Skelton has won the last two renewals and he has five entered this year so he is clearly determined to complete the hat-trick. In those last two renewals, we have backed Up For Parol. He got the place for us at 25s in 2023 but last year he ran a stinker. I was obviously tempted to go in on him again (so he’ll probably hack up) but this year, I am going to take a chance on the Welsh raider, Titan Discovery.

Trained by Robbie Llewellyn, this 7yo son of Pether’s Moon is lurking on a winnable mark, in my opinion. A winner by a head on his handicap debut off 104 in December 2023 at Ascot (15.5f, gd/sft), he added to that tally off 11lb higher In February at Sandown (20f, sft) two runs later.

On his next start, Titan Discovery stepped up in grade and contested a class 2 handicap hurdle over this C&D. Still travelling sweetly as they turned for home, he got stuck in a bit of a pocket on the inside and when the eventual winner Boombawn made his race winning move, Liam Harrison had to switch out wide to follow him and the Skelton horse just got first run.

Titan did jump the last two hurdles perhaps a tiny bit steeply, which cost him momentum, but once Harrison gave him the office after the last he picked up strongly, and the winner was clinging on for dear life at the line.

Solid Form

Boombawn, then racing off 130, has since won a Grade 2 over fences and is rated 141 in that sphere. Irish Hill was a couple of lengths off them in third running off 124 and he has won off that mark since and is now rated 131. Kateira was back in fourth off 136 and she won a grade 3 handicap at Aintree afterwards (and a Listed here) and is now rated 145.

Robbie Llewellyn’ charge will be racing off 123 here, just 2lb higher than he was in that C&D contest. He shaped as though needing the run when a respectable seventh on his seasonal return in the 19.5f Silver Trophy at Chepstow three months ago and he’ll be better suited by the right handed track at Kempton. His form figures over hurdles going left handed read 67, going the other way they read 421212.

Soft or good to soft ground is perfectly fine for him, my only concern is that he’s been absent for three months since that Chepstow return. Looking back at the stats, Robbie Llewellyn didn’t have a winner or a second from twenty four runners between September and November so perhaps some of his horses weren’t fully healthy and he didn’t want to run this lad until his string had turned the corner.

He went 2/11 in December and this month he’s had a second from his three runners so far, so it looks like he has his string in fine fettle now. I’m convinced this horse has a big pot in him on a right-handed track and I’m hoping this has been the long-term target since his excellent run over C&D last year. So, at odds of 25/1, Titan Discovery is the e/w selection.

2025 Lanzarote Hurdle Kempton Ante-Post: Titan Discovery e/w @ 25/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

-DaveStevos

Sunday, 5 January 2025

2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting Preview

Unfortunately Saturday’s racing fell foul of the freezing weather. Amazingly, the BHA didn’t have an alternative all-weather meeting scheduled that could be broadcast free to air instead so ITV had no racing to show. The forecast wasn’t great for Naas on Saturday night into Sunday but thankfully, the card goes ahead. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting preview and tips below.

1.25 – Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 2)

Nothing really leapt out in the first two races. I was half-tempted by Miss Pronunciation in the opener because of her record on testing ground but all her best form is on right-handed tracks and she’ll likely be out for a spin to get a mark to qualify her for handicap chases. There’s only two places on offer in the second race, a handicap chase, so we’ll start off with this Grade 2 Novices’ Chase.

Only five run in this contest and Inthepocket is even money to follow up his easy win at Wexford in November (2m, sft). A Grade 1 winner over timber at Aintree in 2023, he won as he liked on his first chase start and it would be no surprise were he to follow up.

Ile Atlantique was also impressive on his chasing debut at Navan last month, making all to beat Waterford Whispers by 9l over 20.5f on soft ground. He’ll be suited by a strongly run race at this trip and he should get that, but he wasn’t as talented over timber as his main market rival.

Firefox is the only other one in here with a realistic chance on all known form. His fans would have been very disappointed by his defeat in the Drinmore but in hindsight, it looks like ok form after seeing what the winner Croke Park and Heart Wood (fourth in the Savills) have done since. He probably represents a bit of value against the top two in the market at 3/1 but he’s too short for the blog. No bet.

2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting Tip: No Bet

1.55 – Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

Last year’s Champion Bumper winner, Jasmin De Vaux, is a warm order in this 2m4f Grade 1 novice. His jumping wasn’t great on his hurdling debut at Navan but the second and third have won since and the fifth, beaten 24l, ran a blinder in a maiden at Fairyhouse for Eddie Cawley on New Year’s Day.

The Yellow Clay is 3/3 over hurdles, including wins at Grade 3 and Grade 2 level. He finished 12l behind the fav at Cheltenham but reversed the form at Punchestown and I’m not sure he should be 11/4 if Jasmin De Vaux is priced up at 13/8. In fact, given his experience advantage over hurdles, I’d probably make the Elliott horse favourite.

The plunge horse is Supersundae, who opened up at 25s with one firm last night. He’s been backed all the way into just 7/1 but whether this tacky ground will be up his alley, I’m not too sure.

Bigger Odds

Is there anything capable of spoiling the party at bigger odds? Spasiba won his maiden here back in November but that was on much better ground than he’ll encounter here. Plontier also has ground concerns so that leaves us with Wingmen.

A two-time bumper winner last year on soft and yielding (including a race here), he got off the mark at the first attempt over hurdles at Navan in November (20f, gd/yld). However, he failed to follow up dropped back in trip at Cheltenham to 2m1f on good to soft ground and the horse that beat him there has since come up short in Grade 1 company.

That being said, the step back up to 2m4f is in this son of Kayf Tara’s favour and the ground could be a plus for him too. He is unraced on  ground with heavy in the description under rules but it was soft to heavy for his sole start in points and he hacked up at Ballycrystal that day by 12 lengths.

At odds of 40/1, Wingmen is a speculative each way selection. He’ll probably need one or two to misfire to sneak a place though, so keep stakes small.

2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting Tip: Wingmen e/w @ 40/1

3.05 – Adare Handicap Hurdle (110 = 11st 12lbs)

Giant Haystacks looks too short here given that he has been well beaten both starts on soft ground and his win last time came on yielding. This is admittedly a weaker race but given that he has to prove he handles these testing conditions, he could be worth taking on.

At massive odds, maybe Cornmarket can challenge for a place if he comes on for his seasonal reappearance at here last month. The 2m trip and good to yielding ground were not in his favour that day and he was beaten a long way, but there is cause for optimism now that he steps up to 2m3f and returns to heavy ground.

His best efforts last season came on heavy ground. He stayed on for a remote fourth of 10 off 86 at Clonmel in October 2023 and then on his next start over hurdles upped to 2m4f on heavy, he finished an 8.75l fourth of 10 behind Kiln Time at Wexford off 84. He was again fourth at Cork in March, beaten 9l on soft to heavy and not quite getting home over the 2m4f trip.

This 2m3f trip could be ideal for him and while he is racing from 4lb out of the handicap, his rider’s 4lb claim negates that. If he can repeat those Cork or Wexford efforts in this weak race he might be able to sneak into the frame and with five places on offer, Cornmarket is worth chancing each way for small stakes at odds of 33/1.

2025 Naas Lawlor’s Meeting Tip: Cornmarket e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos