Last year we were a whisker away from landing a 40/1 winner in this race with Survie. All the talk ahead of this year’s renewal has been about Shes Perfect, who, despite the protestations of high profile figures like Matt Chapman, was rightly demoted to second in the French 1000 Guineas last month.
The general consensus seems to be that she will stay this extra two furlongs but that remains to be seen. Her sire Sioux Nation's progeny have had just 4 wins from 75 runners at 10f-11f (3/32 winners to runners).
She’s a half-sister to four winners and one of them has won over 1m4f on the flat and at 2m3f over hurdles, which is a plus, but the other three did their winning at 6f-1m. The jury is out for me regarding her stamina and if a gun was put to my head, I would guess she won’t stay, especially on soft ground.
Interesting Outsider
Can anything crash the Prix De Diane party at a price? Stephane
Pasquier almost sprang a surprise for us last year on Survie and I think his mount
Rosa Salvaje might be capable of outrunning her odds for Christopher Head, the
trainer of the 2023 winner Blue Rose Cen.
This filly has a pretty different profile to that winner and
this will be her first run at the top table. She came up short behind Shes
Perfect and Zarigana on her seasonal reappearance in a Longchamp G3 but that
was over a mile and she simply got outpaced in the final furlong after being
ridden with restraint, which I am not sure she enjoyed. A month later she
stepped up to this trip for the first time over this C&D in a lesser race
and she made all to win by 1.5L.
Clearly, this is a far tougher assignment but she showed
last season she could be competitive at stakes level when splitting subsequent
Goffs Millions winner Apples And Bananas and the Epsom Derby runner up Lazy
Griff (3.5l behind) in a Listed race at Deauville (1m, soft) in August of last
year.
Pedigree
Is she bred to win a G1? Well, her US sire Maximum Security
is from the Northern Dancer line and she is among his first crop of 3yos. Her grand-dam,
Downthedustyoad, won a Grade 1 at Santa Anita so while she isn’t regally bred,
there is at least a G1 winner in there.
We already know for sure she stays 10.5f and we know she has
experience of this track. She’s been handed a decent draw in stall 5 so if she
gets away well, hopefully Pasquier will be able to get to the front and dictate
the pace.
Even if Merrily is there to act as a pacemaker for Coolmore,
I don’t think Rosa Salvaje will be inconvenienced by slotting in behind if she
does go hell for leather from the front and given that her stamina is assured, a
strongly run race might play to her strengths. This looks a pretty open renewal
to me and while she clearly needs to improve on what she has shown to date, that
is not impossible. At odds of 40/1, Rosa Salvaje is the e/w selection.
2025 Prix De Diane Tip: Rosa Salvaje e/w @ 40/1
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