Two places on Saturday, with both drifting. Betty Clover ended up at 80s and our NAP Flash de Touzaine returned at 33s. It just goes to show, market weakness does not always equate a poor performance. In fact, with best odds guaranteed it results in a Brucey bonus. Now, we switch our focus to flat HQ, Dave’s 2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday preview and tips are below.
1.50 – Weatherbys Handicap (Class 2)
With rain forecast overnight, it might be worth taking a
chance on Probe in this open looking handicap. Trained by Jennie Candlish, this
former C&D winner has slipped to a dangerous mark. He wasn’t
beaten all that far on his last start off 90 at Doncaster and the assessor handed
him another 2lb back after that run.
The son of Kingman now races off 88, 2lb lower than he was when
winning a big pot over C&D in May 2023. He was beaten a length in this race
off the same mark two weeks earlier and this will be his first time back at HQ since.
Those two runs came on good to soft and it is currently quicker than that at
Newmarket but the app I use is showing up to 16mm of rain in the early hours
and if they get that, it should take any jar out of the ground.
Probe has run well on good to firm before, so all is not
lost if the rain misses. However, in an ideal world they’ll get even more than
forecast and if that happens, it will enhance his chance. Kieran O’Neill rode
for that previous C&D win and he’s back on board today so, at odds of 20/1, Probe is
the e/w selection.
2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: Probe e/w @
20/1 (4 places) NAP
2.25 – Feilden Stakes (Listed)
The first pattern race of the week is this 1m1f listed heat
for 3yos only. Masai Moon is a warm order for Appleby and Buick but others in
here have achieved more. On form, Nightwalker and Green Storm set the standard.
However, they are priced up at 11/2 and 7/1 respectively, not much use to us.
Eight run here, so in the hope that he has improved plenty from
two to three I am going to back Last Galileo e/w. He got off the mark at the
second attempt at Ayr, knuckling down to see off Hornsea Bay. That rival is
rated 88 and had previously won on debut by 3L so there is at least a little
bit of substance to the form.
Last Galileo is obviously by a top sire and his full
siblings Delphi and Credenza earned black type as 3yos. Karl Burke nicked third
with an unconsidered 50/1 shot in this last year, hopefully he can repeat the
trick with Last Galileo at odds of 33/1.
2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: Last Galileo
e/w @ 33/1 NB
3.00 – Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3)
Charlie Appleby has won the last three renewals of this race
and in all honesty, he’ll probably win it again. He fires two bullets this year
and given how little there is between them on paper, the second string First Conquest
might represent the value at 8/1 (stablemate is 13/8).
Ambiente Friendly looks the chief danger and indeed, he is
top rated by 5lb. With just six runners and only two places on offer, this is a
race I am happy to just watch. No bet.
2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: No bet
3.35 – Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3)
We managed to nail Pretty Crystal in this last year at 18/1
and this year, I am going to take a chance on one at even bigger odds. With a
rating of 90, Biniorella Bay has no chance on paper of beating the likes of
Arabian Dusk (108) and Celestial Orbit (104). However, she has been racing on
slow ground since winning a novice impressively on good to firm on the July course here last
June and she could be capable of much better now back on what should be a
sounder surface.
It must be said that the form of that novice win didn’t work out
but Clover’s filly proved herself to be smart when she was beaten just 2l in a 7f Deauville G3 last July despite encountering traffic problems. The ground was
possibly too soft when she finished a 3.5l fourth in a Goodwood G3 in August
and she probably wasn’t suited by the AW when running below par at Chelmsford
in October.
By New Bay, her dam is out of a half-sister to the top class
Postponed so the bloodline is there and Jack Mitchell returns to the plate for
the first time since her novice win. All of the top eight horses in the betting
lack a run, so my hope is that Clover has this filly as fit as possible with the
aim of sneaking some precious black type. At odds of 50/1, Biniorella Bay is the
e/w selection.
2025 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: Biniorella Bay
e/w @ 50/1
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