I have already posted tips for the Oaks and Derby, you can check them out here. I’ll be covering Friday’s card on my own blog and Saturday’s action on the TXMarkets blog. Hopefully we can follow up on our 11/1 winning NAP last week, 2025 Epsom Oaks Day previews and tips are below.
1.30 – Surrey Stakes (Listed)
First of all, the weather. There was 6mm of rain at Epsom on
Thursday morning and at the time of writing there were still showers in the air.
How much they get remains to be seen but I imagine we might be racing on good
to soft tomorrow. It certainly won’t be rattling quick.
The opening race on Derby weekend is this 7f Listed heat.
Thankfully for us each way players, eight are due to go to post so we may as well
have a go at one at a decent price. The one that fits the bill is the Adrian
Keatley trained Francisco’s Piece.
By Mayson, this colt remains had a busy campaign at two. A winner
on debut at Pontefract in May, he added a listed race at Chantilly in June
before running poorly at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood on good to firm
ground.
Mid-Season Break
After a mid-season break, he came back for a backend campaign
on softer ground and he placed in two listed races at 6f and 5.5f before shaping
like he was ready for a step up to 7f on his final start of 2024 in a 6f listed
race at Doncaster in October. He’s also related to a couple of 1m winners so
that’s another indication that he should get this trip.
He now gets that extra furlong and Tom Marquand, who rode
when he was short headed in a valuable novice at York last year, gets the leg
up. Francisco’s Piece returns with his yard in excellent form. Ok, Keatley has
had just one winner in the last fortnight but the form figures of his runners
since May 28 read 4232201. At odds of 20/1, Francisco’s Piece is the e/w
selection.
2025 Epsom Oaks Day Tip: Francisco’s Piece e/w @ 20/1 NB
2.05 – Woodcote Stakes (Class 2)
This class 2 conditions race for the 2yos rarely throws up a
shock winner. Since 2005, only three horses at double figure odds have won but
at the prices we play at, a place will do and I think Too Darn Good is
interesting stepping up to 6f after a highly promising debut at Bath two weeks
ago.
By Too Darn Hot, this colt had to come wide and got a bit
outpaced around 2f out in that maiden but once Rob Hornby gave him a tap with
the persuader around a furlong out, he picked up well and ran on strongly in
the closing stages for a 2.25l fourth.
Dam Listed Winner
His dam was a listed winner over 5f and she herself is out
of a listed 5f winner so there is lots of speed in his pedigree but Too Darn
Hot has hopefully added enough stamina to ensure that 6f will be within his
compass. It’s harder to predict whether he’ll handle a slight ease in the
ground but his pedigree suggests it’s not out of the question.
Charlie Hills has had seventeen previous 2yo runners at
Epsom and while only one of them won, nine others finished in the first four
(seven in the first three). Hopefully Too Darn Good can hit the frame for him
here at odds of 40/1.
2025 Epsom Oaks Day Tip: Too Darn Good e/w @ 40/1
2.40 – Coronation Cup (Group 1)
Just seven runners in this 1m4f Group 1 and it looks like a
contest that will be dominated by the market leaders. The rain is in Caldangan’s
favour and the French raider could be a tough nut to crack. Jan Brueghel is
next best in the betting and one could argue that Bellum Justum is overpriced
given that only a neck separated the two of them when they met at Goodwood last
year.
However, with just two places on offer I’ll swerve this
race. No bet.
2025 Epsom Oaks Day Tip: No Bet
3.15 – Nifty Fifty Handicap (Class 2)
Given his record fresh and his liking for a bit of easy ground, the locally trained C&D winner Simply Sondheim might be worth taking a chance on at a price in this 1m2f handicap. George Baker’s 6yo was pulled up lame when last seen at Doncaster in November but he’s had plenty of time to recover and with such a big pot on offer, there’s a good chance that Baker has targeted this.
Simply Sondheim’s only previous run here resulted in victory,
admittedly on heavy ground. However, he has won on good to soft too and once
there is some sort of an ease, he’ll be fine. He is 5lb higher than he was when
winning here last September but he probably ran to 95+ that day so he should be
capable of nicking some place money off 93 if he is ready to go for his return.
He won first time out in 2023 for George Boughey and he ran
a fine race first time up last year for Baker when finishing fourth at Kempton.
At odds of 22/1, Simply Sondheim is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
2025 Epsom Oaks Day Tip: Simply Sondheim e/w @ 22/1 (4
places)
4.00 – Betfred Oaks (Group 1)
We have already backed Revoir at 10/1 for the Oaks and you
can read why via the link provided in the introduction. The rain shouldn’t be an
issue for her, hopefully she puts her best hoof forward and runs a big race.
2025 Epsom Oaks Day Tip: Revoir already advised e/w @
10/1 NAP
No comments:
Post a Comment