Cardiff By The Sea landed our e/w NB with a place in the Queen Mary on Day 2. My 2025 Royal Ascot Thursday tips are below.
2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)
A 5f burn up kicks off proceedings on Day 3 and sixteen
juveniles have been declared. The Ballydoyle No Nay Never colt Charles Darwin
heads the betting at around 13/8 and his chance is obvious. He looked an
exciting prospect when hosing up over 6f on soft ground at Navan and he
followed up in a four runner race at Naas, beating Cardiff By The Sea by 3.25l
over 5f on good ground.
The worry for me with this horse is whether he’ll be
comfortable on rattling quick ground. His full brother Blackbeard came into the
Coventry Stakes with a similar reputation in 2022 and lost his unbeaten record
on good to firm ground. Maybe he’ll be fine, but at the prices I believe he
might be worth taking on.
The one that interests me at a price is the Andrew Balding
trained Comical Point. By Blue Point, this colt got off the mark at the first
attempt in a modest looking maiden at Salisbury last month. The form is
certainly nothing special on paper but Balding’s two year olds often need their
debut runs so when he has a first time out winner, they are usually pretty
useful.
Back in 2021, Berkshire Shadow won a similar sort of maiden
at Newbury on debut and then went on to win the Coventry on his next start. He
ran to an RPR of 84 on his first day at school and Comical Point ran to 82. Oisin
Murphy, who also rode Berkshire Shadow, gets the leg up and while his draw in
stall 6 is on the low side, with just sixteen runners it shouldn’t be too much
of an inconvenience. At odds of 28/1, Comical Point is the e/w selection.
2025 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Comical Point e/w @ 28/1
(4 places)
3.05 – King George V Stakes Handicap (Heritage)
A high draw has usually been a plus in this 1m4f handicap
for the 3yos. This is reflected in the market though with the top three in the
betting drawn 21, 20 and 17. The one I like is also drawn high but he is a much
bigger price at odds of 22/1.
As regular readers know, I am usually reluctant to back
horses on their handicap debuts. However, these 3yo only races are usually full
of handicap debutants so I am going to make an exception with the Joseph
O’Brien trained Omni Man.
He gets in here off a mark of 90 and that could prove to be
lenient. On his seasonal reappearance, his second ever run, he went close at
Navan (8f, good) behind Mississippi River, to whom he was conceding 5lb. That
horse has since run well in handicaps off 85 and 90. In second that day was
Zahrann, and he is now rated 105 after winning a Listed heat at Leopardstown on
his next start.
Omni Man probably didn’t appreciate the soft ground when
beaten at Cork on his next start but the step up to 10.5f and return to quicker
conditions saw him hose up in a four runner maiden at Roscommon where he beat
an 85 rated rival by over seven lengths.
By Invincible Spirit, he is a half-brother to winners at up
to 1m6f on the Flat and 2m5f over jumps, including Jack Darcy who won a G2 over
12.5f. That suggests he’ll relish this step up in trip and he’ll also have the
assistance of the top class Dylan Browne-McMonagle in the saddle. He’s been
drawn in 16, which is another positive, so at 22/1 Omni Man has to be worth
chancing e/w.
2025 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Omni Man e/w @ 22/1 (5
places)
3.40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2)
Hennry De Bromhead had a lovely winner here earlier in the
week and I think Hollys Graces might outrun her odds for him in this 1m4f Group
2. This daughter of Australia first came to my attention when I was doing the
Racing Post spotlights for her debut over 7f at Dundalk last September. She had
shown a nice bit of promise in a barrier trial in August and she duly went and
won first time up.
That form has taken a few knocks since but she could only
beat what was in front of her. She was left off for the winter after that run
and reappeared in the Listed Oaks Trial at Naas last month. She was held up and
she got outpaced when the leaders turned the screw in the home straight but I
thought she kept on pretty nicely and she was far from disgraced, finishing
5.5l behind the winner.
Her pedigree suggests she’ll relish the step up to 1m4f, as
did that run at Naas. I also think the quick ground at Ascot will be right up
her alley and as an added bonus, De Bromhead has secured the services of Colin
Keane. This doesn’t look the strongest of Group 2s, hopefully Hollys Graces can
hit the frame at odds of 33/1.
2025 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Hollys Graces e/w @ 33/1
4.20 – Gold Cup (Group 1)
I am not a huge fan of these staying races. Usually, the market
principals come to the fore and with Kyprios now retired, this looks a good
opportunity for either Trawlerman, Illinois or Sweet William to get their heads
in front. If I were having a bet, I’d probably side with Sweet William at the
prices but at around 8/1, he’s just a shade too short for this blog.
I am happy to just watch this race. No bet.
2025 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: No bet
5.00 – Britannia Stakes Handicap (Heritage)
A battle charge. Thirty 3yo runners over the straight mile
and usually, a high draw is favoured. The one I’ll be taking a chance on at a
working man’s price is the Ian Williams trained son of Blue Point, Supido.
Formerly trained in France by Philippe Decouz, this gelding
showed some smart form as a juvenile. Placed in a 7f listed heat at Vichy last
July and beaten just 1.5l when fifth in a G3 at Baden Baden, both over 7f, he
won his only start at a mile in a conditions race at Saint-Malo in August.
Current connections bought him for 90 grand at the Arqana
sales in October and he started out for Williams in a Chester handicap over
7.5f (good) early last month. Billy Loughnane, who also rides today, dropped
him out early, switched very wide in the straight and his mount ran on very
nicely in the closing furlong to finish a never nearer fifth.
Loughnane wasn’t overly hard on Supido and it looked like a
prep run for a bigger prize to my eye. He’s been handed a nice draw in stall
31, Ian Williams has been amongst the winners and on the evidence of that
Chester run, this horse is more than capable of winning off his mark of 93. At
odds of 50/1, Supido is the each way selection.
2025 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Supido e/w @ 50/1 (4
places 1/4 odds) NB
5.35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3)
A few of the Derby also rans line up in this 10f Group 3 but
the one I am going to take a chance on is having his first start in stakes
company. Arabian Force, trained by William Haggas, steps up in class after
winning a pair of novices, at Wetherby (1m, gd-fm) and then at Salisbury (1m2f,
gd-fm).
Beaten on debut at Kempton in April, the money came for him
on his second start at Wetherby and he duly obliged, though he was pushed to
the pin of his collar by Hymnbook, a winner of a maiden since. Haggas stepped him
up in trip at Salisbury and, despite still looking a bit green, he hacked up by
5l, beating Gladius, since a winner off 87 in a handicap.
He’s bred to be a stakes horse, being by a top notch sire
and out of a sister to Rizeena, the winner of the 2014 Coronation Stakes at
this venue. Tom Marquand (10/48 with 14 top 4s for ths owner) takes over in the plate and
this horse will relish the quick conditions in Berkshire. At odds of 20/1, Arabian
Force is worth backing e/w.
2025 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Arabian Force e/w @ 20/1
6.10 – Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap (Class 2)
Four of the five runnings of this race have been won by
horses drawn 24 or higher. The favourite, last year’s winner English Oak, has a
nice draw in stall 27 but he’s far too short for this blog. My nemesis, and the
2023 winner, Witch Hunter has been drawn in stall 8 so he looks to be up
against it but with me not tipping him, his chance is massively enhanced.
The one I’ll take a chance on from stall 25 is Divine Libra.
Trained by Charlie Hills, this 5yo son of Dark Angel finished sixth of 26 in
this race last year off 95. He was beaten 6.25l for the win but he didn’t get
the clearest of runs and he was only 2l behind Carrytheone in third.
Divine Libra is back for a repeat bid off 1lb lower and he had a lovely
prep run at Chester last month. Top Aussie pilot James McDonald comes in for the
ride and he hasn’t been beaten that far on his two previous runs over C&D
on good to firm ground. He was beaten 0.75l off this mark at Chester last year
so he is capable of going close off this mark and if he gets a bit of luck in running,
Divine Libra can hopefully hit the frame at odds of 16/1.
2025 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Divine Libra e/w @ 16/1 (6 places) NAP
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