Newman's Charge Could Hold All The Aces At Tramore

Aces And Kings is a horse that I hold close to my heart. He is trained by small operator Willie Newman in Kells, and did me a massive favour in April last year when he landed a hunter chase over course and distance, despite the ground being much softer than ideal.

He followed up on his preferred faster ground at Kilbeggan, another sharp right handed track, and that win came off 102. He subsequently ran with credit off his revised mark of 109, falling with the race seemingly at his mercy, again at Kilbeggan, before making a bold bid at Punchestown, only giving best in the home straight after leading for much of the way.

When on song he really is a flamboyant jumper, and he usually takes a couple of lengths out of his rivals at every fence. He is back down to his last winning mark of 102, he showed some of his old spark up at Downpatrick last time out and he will get his ideal underfoot conditions once the weather forecast doesn't miraculously change. Lynch is booked and I am sure his shrewd handler will have Aces And Kings primed for his return to a track that clearly suits the horse. Looks well worth an each way interest  at his current odds of  11/1.

Stevos' Selection: 6.10 Tramore-Aces And Kings (11/1 e/w).

Rain Won't Dampen Dragon's Chance At Ffos Las

Best Boy lived up to his name yesterday, holding off the late challenge of Splash Of Verve to score  at 7/1. He idled a bit when he hit the front, and was perhaps value for more than the winning margin suggests. He could well go in again next time out, and should stay even further in time.

Today's selection comes from Wales, and is a horse that is looking very well treated at the moment. Eastern Dragon, who goes in the 6.00, comes here on the back of a poor run at Epsom (7F good ). However, that run may have come too soon after his previous effort, a close 3rd to Mime Dance at Chepstow (7F good to firm) off a pound lower than today's mark of 68.

There is heavy rain forecast before the start of racing tomorrow, and whilst that will prove a hindrance to the majority of his rivals, there are no such worries for Eastern Dragon, whose last three wins have come on soft and heavy ground. His last win, on heavy at Brighton (7F) last October, came off a mark of 73, so if his jockey's claim is taken into consideration he is effectively 10lb lower today. His current odds of 10/1 look way too big to me, and if the forecast rain arrives he will probably go off a lot shorter.

Stevos' Selection: 6.00 Ffos Las-Eastern Dragon (10/1)

Boy To Run Best At Beverley

Best Boy is a horse that first caught my eye on his handicap debut over this course and distance when he was ridden by Fergal Lynch.  To say he was given too much to do would be a massive understatement, and for him to finish only 6 lengths behind the winner was a decent achievement considering how he was ridden on the day. That effort came off a mark of 64 and the handicapper reacted, dropping him to 60.

Next time out, last week at Nottingham over the same trip, he was very slowly away and again looked in no hurry to make his way through the field. He was still near the back three furlongs from home, but when his apprentice jockey asked him for an effort he seemed to respond quite well, passing quite a few in the last couple of furlongs to finish 5th. He was beaten quite a distance in the end, but the winner of the race followed up off 6lb higher four days later so it looks decent enough form. 

David Allan gets the leg up, which has to be seen as a positive as he was the choice of connections to partner stable star Take Cover, who went agonisingly close in a Group 2 at Goodwood. Hopefully he can make amends on Best Boy today, who looks well worthy of  each way support at odds of 14/1.

Stevos' Selection: 5.10 Beverley Best Boy (14/1 e/w). 

Kaymer To Conquer In Wisconsin

One of the first things that must be considered when backing somebody in a golf tournament is whether or not their game is suited to the course. So often you see players repeatedly doing well at certain courses, or at certain types of courses, and it is not down to coincidence that this happens so regularly.

When it is a major tournament  involved another thing that is a must is proven mental toughness, and as backers of Dustin Johnson have found to their cost recently if it is not there then getting over the finishing line is very difficult indeed. One player that ticks both the above boxes, and that looks to be overpriced too, is German Martin Kaymer, who won when the tournament was last held at Whistling Straits back in 2010. He proved that was no flash in the pan with another major victory in the US Open last year, and he has that typical German mental toughness that so many of their sports stars possess.

He showed with a strong performance at the British Open that he was coming into form at the right time, finishing tied for 12th on -9. A 4th at the French Open at the start of July was another encouraging performance, and is further cause for optimism with regards to his chances this weekend. He looks far too big a price at 60/1 (sportingbet) and looks well worth supporting each way. A couple of bookies are offering 7 places each way so as ever it is advisable to shop around for the best deal.

At an even bigger price Tyrrell Hatton could prove to be a lively outsider having shown plenty of flashes of his ability on the European Tour this year.


Stevos' Selection: Martin Kaymer        (60/1)
One To Watch:    Tyrrell Hatton           (300/1)

Polly A Possible Improver At Carlisle

Polly Jackson is a horse that I have been keeping a close eye on since her 2yo days. She showed promise on all three maiden runs, but the one that really stood out was her 2nd one at Newcastle (8F good to soft) when she finished fourth, just a length behind Sperry, a subsequent Listed winner for John Gosden.

Her 3yo campaign has been something of a washout thus far and she has struggled to make the frame in four runs over a variety of trips, ranging from 10F to 7.5F at Beverley last time on  soft ground, where she wasn't beaten too far off a mark of 60. She was outpaced that day as the race developed and she dropped out the rear, but she actaully stayed on again past a couple of beaten horses in the final 100 yards which was at least an improvement on her previous efforts.

What interests me in this filly today is the fact that she has been dropped another three pounds to a mark of just 57. A repeat of that promising maiden run at Newcastle would put her right in the thick of things off this mark, The record of the Tutty yard at Carlisle is another reason for optimism, she has a very good strike rate at the track, with 7 winners from just 32 runners in the past 5 seasons.

Her full brother won twice, both times on firm ground, so underfoot conditions should pose no problem. The trip of 9F should also be fine, and she shaped as if it would be perfect in a couple of her maiden runs. She is currently priced up at a more than generous 16/1, and she is of definite interest each way at that price. It is a weak looking race,and if she can build on the slight improvement she showed last time dropped into a class 6 contest for the first time the Tutty stable could well be making another trip to the winner's enclosure at Carlisle.

Stevos' Selection: Polly Jackson (16/1 e/w).

Spirit Could Soar Back At Ayr

Spirit Of The Sea is a filly that first came to my attention when she ran at Musselburgh over a couple of furlongs shorter than today's trip back in June. She was detached early, and looked to be struggling. However, in the final couple of furlongs she found top gear and absolutely flew home into fourth place, also getting bumped in the closing stages when Lynch switched her out for a run. It was a very eye catching performance, and it was no surprise to see her go even closer upped to 9F here on her next run.
Once again she was settled at the rear of the field early on, but Lynch had to switch her out very wide in the home straight to enable her to maker her challenge. She stayed on very well in the closing stages and just failed to reel in the winner, Elusive Gent. That effort came off a mark of 52 and she was stepped up to 12F at Catterick on her next run off a pound lower. She was very unlucky on this occasion, hampered and snatched up just as the race was beginning to develop, and she did well to finish as close as she did given the circumstances.
The handicapper reacted, and she was raised 5lbs for that effort. She ran a stinker off her new mark at Pontefract on good to firm ground, but I am willing to excuse her that effort as the ground may have been a shade too quick for her. The return to Ayr combined with a drop in trip and a bit of juice in the ground could result in a much improved showing from Jim Goldie's filly today. She looks worthy of each way support at her current odds of 11/1.

Stevos' Selection: Spirit Of The Sea (11/1 e/w).

Phoenix Stakes Day At The Curragh

Secretinthepark was a very welcome winner for the blog yesterday at 7/1. I had wondered where the next winner was going to come from after rattling the crossbar quite a lot over the past few days, and to be honest I thought we had got mugged on the line. McEvoy managed to get him back up though, and I think I may have disturbed a few neighbours with an almighty roar when Channel 4 showed the still on the line.

The best of Sunday's domestic action comes from the Curragh, with the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes the main attraction. Below are my selctions for the day.


2.20 Curragh (Maiden 8F)

Some seriously well bred animals lining up for this maiden, and all the top yards and owners are represented. Many hold classic entries for next year, and from a punting point of view it is a decidedly tricky puzzle to solve.
A watching brief is probably best advised, but one that has a pedigree as good as any and looks overpriced is the Kevin Prendergast colt Mutadaffeq. He is a son of top class sire New Approach, and is out of a half sister to Rockfel and Irish 1000 Guineas winner Hula Angel. The owners also have the much shorter priced half brother to Dark Angel, Almanaara, trained by Dermot Weld, but he is only 9/2, and at 16/1 the Prendergast horse could run well. Small stakes the way to go in this minefield of a race.

Stevos' Selection: Mutadaffeq (16/1 e/w)

2.50 Curragh (Fillies 6F)

Willie McCreery has looked to be hitting form recently, and his Arcano filly Erysimum looks too big a price at 14/1 here. She ran a perfectly respectable race on debut, and if she comes on  for that she should be capable of making her presence felt.

Stevos' Selection: Erysimum (14/1 e/w)

3.20 Curragh (Handicap 7F)

Mick Mulvany had a nice winner, Battleroftheboyne, the other night, and Jembatt also ran a decent race for him during the week. It looks as if his horses are starting to hit a little bit of form, and Tom Dooley looks a huge price here.
He races off a mark of 61, just a pound higher than he was for his last flat win, a decisive victory over today's trip on good to firm at Gowran. He has been running well enough in recent weeks, and the handicapper has dropped him two pounds for his last run at Galway, which wasn't bad at all considering the ground would have been plenty soft enough for him. Young Downey takes off a handy 5lb too, and back on decent ground he could well run a massive race. He looks way too big a price at 20/1 and is worthy of each way support.

Stevos' Selection: Tom Dooley (20/1 e/w)

3.50 Curragh (Phoenix Stakes Group 1 6F)

You can find my in depth preview and selection at Bettingtools .


4.20 Curragh (Phoenix Sprint Stakes Group 3 6F)

Anthem Alexander should prove very difficult to beat here dropped in class. He has performed with credit at Group 1 level on his last two runs, and the vibes from the stable are strong regarding this one. Unless the rain arrives he is a confident selection. Maarek enters calculations if there is cut in the ground.

Stevos' Selection: Anthem Alexander (5/2)

4.50 Curragh (Handicap 8F)

Lord Carleton is the one I like at a price here. Was favourite last time at  Naas, but I don't know who was backing him as the drop to 6F was never likely to suit. There is plenty of stamina in his pedigree, and the step back up to a mile is likely to suit. The handicapper has given him a real chance,awarding him a mark of just 74 for his handicap debut. With the more than capable Tom Madden taking off another 5lbs it will be disappointing if he can't show up better today. At 16/1 he could run a big race.

Stevos' Selection: Lord Carleton (16/1 e/w)

5.20 Curragh (2yo Handicap 5F)

A trappy little contest and no strong opinion here. Perhaps China Eyes can improve with Gary Halpin in the plate for the first time and on her handicap debut.

Stevos' Selection: China Eyes (10/1).

Cowell's Charge Should Relish Return To Ascot

 It is Shergar Cup day at Ascot today, and whilst I am not the biggest fan of the concept there can be no denying that there are some quality horses and jockeys on show. The horse that interests me goes in the opener, Secretinthepark, and his trainer Robert Cowell has won this race twice since 2010.

He was due to run in a weaker looking race last night, and I fancied him for that. However, I wasn't majorly surprised to see him skip that engagement in order to come to Ascot instead, as his last run here back in July was full of promise. That came off a mark of 93, and he has been dropped 2lbs since, after a tame effort at Goodwood over 6F. On his previous run here he was slowly away, and travelled well into the race. He was a bit short of room too just as the race began to hot up, so to finish as close as he did was quite an achievement. 

Aussie pilot Kerrin McEvoy rides today, and he is a quality operator, so there are no reservations on that front. He admittedly has yet to win at the minimum trip, but he shaped on his last visit to Ascot that it suits him well, and if he gets a strong pace to aim at today he should be bang there at the finish. 

Stevos' Selection: 12.55 Ascot  Secretinthepark (7/1). 

Soft Ground Should Hold No Fears For McConnell

The beauty of horseracing, for me, is the fact that even the small man can sometimes be fortunate enough to acquire a horse good enough to take on the big boys,the likes of Coolmore and Bolger etc. If one has a good enough eye and a little bit of luck, sometimes there are very well bred animals that go under the radar and can be picked up for relatively modest sums. 

One such example looks to be Play The Game, a 2yo colt  who was bought for 18,000 euro as a yearling in September last year at Tattersalls. That is the type of sum the likes of Magnier and Tabor would find in loose change down the back of their sofas. This colt is a son of Lawman, a proven and prolific classic winning sire, with a knack for producing smart two year olds.  He is out of an unraced Beat Hollow dam who is a half sister to a couple of black type performers, including dual Listed and Group 3 winner Danger Over. His grand-dam is also unraced, and is a half sister to the top class dual Group 1 winner Sanglamore. This is a seriously well bred horse, and to pick him up for 18k looks to be a serious bargain. For goodness sake, it is 25k to get a mare covered by Lawman this year!

 He lived up to his pedigree on debut, accounting for a Ger Lyons trained 1/2 shot among others despite still looking very green at some stages. The form of the race has yet to be properly tested by the horses in closest proximity, although the fifth home, Fit For Function, came out and won a maiden on his next start and has since run well in a handicap at Galway off a a mark of 83. 

The ground is currently described as soft/heavy at Tipperary for the Coolmore Canford Cliffs Listed Stakes, and the only horse to run on ground softer than good in the field is Waipu Cove, who won on yielding ground last time. However, Play The Game's dam is related to plenty of soft and heavy ground winners, and in fact his half brother Dark Ocean has only ever won when there has been an ease in the ground. He can currently be backed at 8/1 with Ladbrokes, and I can see him going off a lot shorter. He looks great value at that price and  with only six going to post perhaps a win bet is the way to go. 

I have also written a detailed preview of the big race at Musselburgh tomorrow, The Archerfield Cup, and you can read it at Bettingtools 

Selection: 6.35 Tipperary- Play The Game (8/1) 

Banta Too Big At Newcastle

Extreme Supreme did not live up to his name yesterday, and it was a very dispappointing effort. He slightly stumbled when leaving the stalls and couldn't adopt his favoured prominent position. The writing was on the wall from a very early stage, but he is not one to lose faith in just yet, as I believe he is more than capable of adding to his two wins. Perhaps a return to Southwell could be the answer.

The quality of the fare on offer today is of the usual midweek standard, with a host of low grade handicaps and maidens all there is to work with. One horse that has caught my eye on a couple of occasions this season is the Tim Easterby trained 2yo filly Secret Banta, who has her fourth start in maiden comapny in the 5.20 at Newcastle.

This filly has run a couple of races full of promise, with only her second effort being disappointing. On debut at Thirsk (5F good to firm) she was very slowly away, and looked as green as guacamole in the early part of the race. She shaped with definite promise in the latter part of the race though, keeping on nicely after nothing but a couple of slaps down the neck from Fentiman.

Her next run wasn't as good, at Redcar (6F good to firm), but the winner that day has turned out to be a quality operator, and Fentiman wasn't exactly hard on Secret Banta once her chance was gone. Her next run at Beverley (7.5F good to firm) was a real eyecatcher. She broke well, but her jockey took an obvious pull early and dropped her in at the rear of the field. Rounding the home turn she was still in rear, but she still looked to be travelling well enough. Inexplicably, just as the race was starting to develop, Rachel Richardson decided to try and make ground on the inside of the field, and as the leader kicked for home she found herself trapped behind a couple of backpedalling horses. By the time her path cleared the winner and runner up had flown. She was again just pushed out hands and heels, and stayed on nicely for 3rd.

This looks a poor enough maiden, and Secret Banta has been given six weeks off since her last run. The stiff 7F at Newcastle should suit, and she didn't exactly look at home going around the turns of Beverley, so the straight course should  play to her strengths too. Fentiman is back on, and it is interesting that Easterby is persisting in maidens given that she has already qualified to run in handicaps. She is a huge price today at 33/1, but I don't think she will have to improve a huge amount to get involved. At those sort of odds she is worth a little each way support today, and even if she doesn't win  is one to keep a close eye on once sent handicapping.

Selection: 5.20 Newcastle Secret Banta (33/1) e/w.