Polly A Possible Improver At Carlisle

Polly Jackson is a horse that I have been keeping a close eye on since her 2yo days. She showed promise on all three maiden runs, but the one that really stood out was her 2nd one at Newcastle (8F good to soft) when she finished fourth, just a length behind Sperry, a subsequent Listed winner for John Gosden.

Her 3yo campaign has been something of a washout thus far and she has struggled to make the frame in four runs over a variety of trips, ranging from 10F to 7.5F at Beverley last time on  soft ground, where she wasn't beaten too far off a mark of 60. She was outpaced that day as the race developed and she dropped out the rear, but she actaully stayed on again past a couple of beaten horses in the final 100 yards which was at least an improvement on her previous efforts.

What interests me in this filly today is the fact that she has been dropped another three pounds to a mark of just 57. A repeat of that promising maiden run at Newcastle would put her right in the thick of things off this mark, The record of the Tutty yard at Carlisle is another reason for optimism, she has a very good strike rate at the track, with 7 winners from just 32 runners in the past 5 seasons.

Her full brother won twice, both times on firm ground, so underfoot conditions should pose no problem. The trip of 9F should also be fine, and she shaped as if it would be perfect in a couple of her maiden runs. She is currently priced up at a more than generous 16/1, and she is of definite interest each way at that price. It is a weak looking race,and if she can build on the slight improvement she showed last time dropped into a class 6 contest for the first time the Tutty stable could well be making another trip to the winner's enclosure at Carlisle.

Stevos' Selection: Polly Jackson (16/1 e/w).