Sunday, 30 August 2015

Barry's Mare Overpriced Again

Not a great day for the blog yesterday, although Intense Tango ran a decent race to buck the trend of lacklustre performances. Sunday is another day filled with with quality action, and there is one horse in particular that I believe looks overpriced.

Akira, trained by Shay Barry in Waterford, is a mare I have been following closely this season and she takes her chance in the 4.20, a Group 3 contest run over 9f. She has had just the three runs so far this year, and she has improved with every one. Her penultimate run, when close up behind Laviniad and Subsequent Group 3 winner Tested in a Listed heat at Galway was a superb effort, and she looked booked for a place until the final strides. 

Her next run was even better,in the Listed Platinum Stakes down in Cork,  and she was arguably very unlucky not to win, never mind place, as she was denied a clear run at a vital time and finished with plenty still left in the tank. She steps back up to Group 3 company in the same race she ran in last year, when she again ran a cracker at a huge price, just over two lengths behind Carla Bianca. 

She followed that run last year with another cracking effort behind today's rival Brooch in another Group 3. She had to concede 5lbs to the Weld horse last year, but this year the tables have turned, and instead Akira gets 5lbs from the Weld horse. How Brooch is just 3/1 and Akira is 25/1 is beyond me given the swing in the weights. She was also less than a length behind Odeliz, who recently bagged a Group 1 in France .

Now there are plenty of 3yos in the race that Akira has to give weight to, and given that age group's success in this race in recent years it may well stop her from winning. However, she looks way overpriced for the reasons outlined above, and at 25/1 has to be worth a little bit of each way support. 

STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.20 CURRAGH- AKIRA 25/1 (E/W)


No comments:

Post a Comment