BETWAY GREAT VOLTIGEUR STAKES (Group 2)
(Colts & Geldings)
(CLASS 1) (3yo)
(1m4f)
Opening day at York's Ebor meeting, and this year's Voltigeur looks to be a very open race with a quartet of horses vying for favouritism at the head of the market. Michael Stoute has been the most successful trainer in this race, but he has no representative this year. Aidan O'Brien has not had a winner since Powerscourt back in 2004, and he sends three across the Irish Sea in an attempt to snare this Group 2 contest.
Favourites have a decent recent record in this race, with three of the last five winning. There has also been three winners at odds of 12/1 or bigger since 2005, including Monitor Closely at 28/1 back in 2009, so it is a race that can throw up a surprise result. Nothing in the field can be discounted with much confidence, and below is a summary of what I consider to be their respective chances.
1. BALIOS (SIMCOCK/SPENCER)
Son of Shamardal that has already tasted victory at Group 2 level, on his penultimate run at Royal Ascot. Dam won a Listed race and is out of a triple Group 1 winner, so his pedigree is not in question. Trainer has stressed that he still has some developing to do, and has earmarked him as an exciting 4yo prospect.
However, his form so far this year has been excellent, and after taking the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot (12F good to firm) from Mr Singh (easy Group 3 winner next time out) he made the step up into Group 1 company in the Grand Prix De Paris at Longchamp (12F good) and ran with credit, coming home 5th of 6 beaten less than 4 lengths. He was within a hair's breadth of Storm The Stars, who finished 3rd, and with further improvement likely from this progressive sort he could well reverse that form. Solid credentials at 5/1.
2.ALOFT (A O'BRIEN/O'DONOGHUE)
Ballydoyle colt, a lightly raced and extremely well bred son of Galileo, out of a Group 3 winner that is out of a dam from the family of classy Group 1 winners Denon and Chains of Freedom. Only had the four starts so far, and has won two, including the Listed two miler at Royal Ascot last time out. Also beat Storm The Stars when winning his maiden at Newmarket (8f good).
Obviously there are no stamina doubts regarding the trip for this colt given his impressive performance over 4F further at Ascot. His 2nd to Elm Park in the Racing Post Trophy (8F soft
) was a cracking first run in Group 1 company, especially as O'Brien is of the opinion that he needs 'nice ground' to be seen at his best. He gets that today, and with a couple of high class middle distance types in his pedigree, as well as lots of speed, this colt could surprise a few today at odds of 10/1.
3. BONDI BEACH (A O'BRIEN/J O'BRIEN)
Another Ballydoyle inmate who looks to be the choice of Joseph O'Brien from the three they have entered, although jockey bookings often mean nothing when the Coolmore Mafia is involved. Unsurprisingly he is a regally bred colt, by Galileo and out of a Danehill dam who is a full sister to Group 1 winning miler Simply Perfect.
Given the amount of high quality milers in his pedigree it was mildly surprising to see him score at the Curragh last time over 14F(good) in a Group 3 contest. However, the form of that contest looks pretty ordinary in the context of this race, and he will need to improve a whole lot more if he is to make his presence felt against the likes of Balios and Storm The Stars, who have arguably achieved a lot more in defeat at Group 1 level. Priced up at 9/2 joint 2nd fav, and I think that is way too short for a horse who has yet to prove he is a proper top class animal. Much better value to be found elsewhere.
4. GIOVANNI CANALETTO (A'OBRIEN/HEFFERNAN)
The third of the O'Brien trio, and yet another son of Galileo. Is out of a well connected Kingmambo mare whose dam is a sister to classy Group 1 winning sprinter Wolfhound. He is a full brother to Ruler Of The World and a half brother to Duke Of Marmalade, so he has an awful lot to do to emulate those two classy operators.
He has been highly tried this year and claimed 4th in the Epsom Derby and 3rd in the Irish edition, behind Storm The Stars on both occasions. He actually lost ground on the Haggas horse on their second meeting, going down by five lengths having been only two behind him at Epsom. It is hard to see him reversing that form, as he had no excuses on either occasion, and conditions will be very similar today regarding trip and ground. Can be backed at 15/2 but probably just has place claims at the very most.
5. MEDRANO (BROWN/MAKIN)
Son of Archipenko who is out of a Group 3 winning Lomitas mare who is herself out of a half sister to USA Group 2 winner Prospectress. Not as spectacular a pedigree as some of his rivals admittedly, and he looks to be up against it on ground that will be plenty quick for him.
Hugely impressive winner in a Listed contest at Hamilton (11F soft) on his penultimate run, but the runner up has been bitterly disappointing since. Has twice run well at Group 3 level since winning his maiden and also has a two length defeat to Storm The Stars to his name in a Listed heat at Goodwood (11F good). All his best form has come with plenty of cut in the ground, and with no significant rain forecast he could get tapped for toe on the forecast underfoot conditions. Should run his usual consistent race, but unless there is an unexpected deluge between now and the start of the meeting he is best watched at his current odds of 16/1.
6. STORM THE STARS (HAGGAS/COSGRAVE)
Beautifully bred son of Sea The Stars, out of an unraced Sadlers Wells mare who can count the likes of Giant's Causeway and Freud among her illustrious half siblings. He has a pedigree to match any of his rivals, and he also has what looks to be the strongest form in the book. It is no shock to see him chalked up as favourite, and perhaps what is most surprising is his price of 10/3, as I thought he would probably be shorter.
Had strong form in maidens, only finding Golden Horn and today's rival Aloft too good on his first two starts. Landed a listed contest at Goodwood (11F good) before taking in both the English and Irish Derbies, finding only Jack Hobbs and Golden Horn too good for him on both occasions. It is strong form, and it was pretty disappointing that he could only manage 4th last time in Longchamp (Balios behind). He has had a lot more runs than Balios, so it is not inconceivable that the less exposed Simcock horse could improve past him. However, he still deserves his place on any short-list given the strength of his form and at his current odds of 10/3 he shouldn't be far away.
7. TASHAAR (HANNON/DETTORI)
This is another son of Sea The Stars, out of a Listed placed Montjeu mare who is a half sister to a Listed winner. There is plenty of black type in his pedigree, but most of it was achieved at Listed level, so he will need to prove himself a cut above his relatives if he is to succeed in Group company.
However, while his pedigree might not capture the imagination like some others in the field, he has looked ultra impressive on his two starts so far, particularly at Goodwood last time when he showed a sparkling turn of foot to easily win an 11F class 3 handicap off a mark of 90. He is now rated 102, which leaves him with about 12lb to find with the highest rated in the field, and 8-10lbs with the rest. It is a big ask taking such a huge step up in class on just his third start, and it remains to be seen whether he can repeat his Goodwood heroics in a much more difficult race. 9/2 looks extremely skinny to me, and surely he is best watched on his first run in pattern company.
CONCLUSION:
A little minefield of a race, and of the seven runners almost all of them have some sort of chance. Tashaar could be anything, but this is a huge step up in class and he will have to be very good indeed to score here. Of the O'Brien trio it is Aloft that makes the most appeal, and he is certainly considered each way.
However, the two colts that look set to fight out the finish are Storm The Stars and Balios, with slight preference for the Simcock horse, given the fact that he is less exposed and he should also improve again from his last run, when just behind Storm The Stars in France. Medrano should run well enough, but he needs rain to be seen at his best.
STEVOS' SELECTIONS: 1. BALIOS 5/1
2. STORM THE STARS (10/3)
3. ALOFT (10/1)
4. GIOVANNI CANALETTO (15/2)
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