Friday 15 January 2016

Weekend Selections

Devilution very nearly ended the blog's poor run during the week, missing out on a place by the narrowest of margins. The winner looked a very well handicapped horse, and it seems as though Devilution could benefit from a further step up in trip given how he travelled and finished.

SATURDAY

There is some decent action tomorrow, particularly at Warwick, and the feature race is the Betfred Classic Chase at 3.35. This 3m5f marathon looks a very tricky puzzle to solve and cases can be made for the vast majority of them. De Kerry Man is unexposed, gets in off a feather weight and hails from a yard in excellent form. Connections are expecting a decent run and if his unlucky fall last time hasn't left a mark he could well be the answer at 9/1.

However, the one I will be backing tomorrow goes at Wetherby in the opening maiden hurdle to be run over 2m3f at 12.25. Tara The Tiger is trained by Northern handler Tim Easterby and this 5yo daughter of Kayf Tara comes here on the back of a below par effort on terrible ground at Carlisle (17f). A repeat performance would give her no chance here, but the return to this track and the step up in trip could bring about an improved showing. She was sent off at just 9/2 last time, so connections obviously believe she has a bit of ability.

She showed some of that talent on the two occasions she has run at this track, finishing 2nd both times and running races full of promise. On her debut (ridden by Reveley) in a bumper here (12.5f  good to soft) she ran a lovely race to be 2nd, staying on very nicely in the closing stages once the winner had flown. Her next run at Doncaster (16f good to soft) was another decent effort and she again stayed on late in the day to finish 4th.

She came back to Wetherby (16f soft) for her hurdling debut after a few months off, and on proper soft ground she ran a lovely race, jumping nicely and keeping on well in the closing stages for 2nd, albeit over 10L behind the winner. She was given just 18 days to get over those exertions before her last run at Carlisle back in December and she ran a flat race, suggesting that she needed a bit more time to recover.

She has been given over a month off since, she returns to a track she likes and she showed she handles soft ground on her last run here. She gets a handy weight for sex allowance from her male rivals and Reveley comes back in for the ride. At odds of 18/1 she looks worth chancing each way for a trainer who has had 10 winners at Wetherby in the last 5 years.

SUNDAY

There is top class action at Leopardstown on Sunday and the Coral Hurdle is a fascinating race. It looks an absolute minefield for punters but there is a horse at the foot of the weights that looks well worth chancing each way on his handicap debut for the shrewd Tony Martin, who runs 4 in total. Okotoks, owned by Malcom Denmark, is the lowest rated of all those entries, but he looks a very interesting contender dropped back down to 2m.

He is a 2m bumper and maiden winner, on yielding and soft ground respectively, and he was stepped up to 20f on his last run in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Navan. He wasn't disgraced in 4th, 17L behind the winner Falcon Crest, and he has been given a nice 56 day break since that run.

He previously landed a maiden hurdle down in Cork back in November (16f soft) and he won that race in the manner of a pretty useful horse. A couple of the horses in behind him that day have since gone on to go close in maiden events themselves, and it looks to be pretty solid form.

 His hurdling debut came at Leopardstown over 20f back in Dec 2014 and he was only 8L behind Snow Falcon and Identity Thief. If you consider that those two are now rated 145 and 158 respectively, and also that the 20f trip would have stretched Okotoks, he looks potentially well treated off his opening handicap mark of 125. Denis O'Regan, who is 8/40 for Tony Martin (20%), comes in for the ride and he will be sweating up hard to make the weight of 10st 4lbs. At 25/1 he looks a live contender and he looks well worth a little each way support in a wide open race.

STEVOS' SELECTIONS 
SATURDAY: 12.25 WETHERBY TARA THE TIGER 18/1 E/W
SUNDAY      : 2.25 LEOPARDSTOWN: OKOTOKS 25/1 E/W

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