Cheltenham Day 1 Selections

The waiting is almost over and the famous Cheltenham roar will go up in just a few hours time. The blog has been on a woeful run of form and Sirop De Menthe ran no sort of race for us in the Imperial Cup on Sunday. We are due a change of luck, and hopefully it comes during the biggest week in the National Hunt calendar. You can check my thoughts on every race on the opening day below, and hopefully there is a winner or two in there to boost the betting bank for the rest of the week.

SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE

 A fascinating race to get this wonderful meeting under way and Min will be a short price to get the Willie Mullins roadshow off to a perfect start. Those who are on at bigger odds will be sitting pretty, but at his current odds of just 2/1 he looks very short. The one I like at a nice price is Tombstone for Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott.

This 6yo son of Robin Des Champs is 3 from 6 under rules, winning two bumpers and a maiden. He was stepped into Grade 1 company immediately after his maiden hurdle win (18f soft/heavy) and ran with great credit on heavy ground at Leopardstown behind Long Dog, finishing a close second beaten less than a length. He was kept to the same grade next time, again at Leopardstown, and found just one too good again in Bleu Et Rouge.

On that bare form he will struggle to beat Min, but his pedigree suggests that he could improve massively for the switch to decent ground. It is drying out all the time and his dam was a dual winner on yielding and good to firm ground and his sire has produced plenty of top class decent ground winners, including Vautour, Quevega and Sir Des Champs, all previous festival winners. I reckon he could be a different proposition on decent ground and at odds of 14/1 he represents serious each way value against the fav.

I have written an in depth preview for this race for Sportismadeforbetting and you can read it here.

STEVOS' SELECTION: TOMBSTONE E/W 14/1

ARKLE CHASE

As much as I'd love to oppose Douvan here it is impossible to pick holes in his form. He is the second of four short price Mullins' favourites and there will be lots of accumulators riding on him if Min can win the opener. With just 7 going to post there are only two places each way, and for place players it makes life difficult.

Sizing John has been beaten repeatedly by the favourite and it is hard to see how he can reverse the form on Tuesday. Vaniteux looks the best of the home team but at 7/1 he doesn't really appeal. I won't be having a bet here and it is a race to just watch and admire the machine that is Douvan demolish the field.

ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

24 go to post for what looks like an absolute minefield of a race for punters and a case can be made for the vast majority of the field. One horse that really catches the eye down near the foot of the weights is Indian Castle. This 8yo son of Dr Massini is in the care of shrewd handler Ian Williams and by the look of his form he has been targeted at this race.

He was a course winner over 21f (heavy) here back in January 2014 off 135 and he ran a huge race to be 7th in the Kim Muir (25.5f good) off a mark of 140 on his next start when he would have finished much closer only for a final flight blunder. He had a poor season last year, but he returned to form in a big way in last year's renewal of this race (good to soft), when again he didn't enjoy much luck in running in 4th behind The Druids Nephew off 139.

He has had a very similar preparation this year and he comes here on the back of a poor run when he was well backed for a 26.5f chase here off 139 on New Year's Day. However, every cloud has a silver lining and he has been dropped to a mark of 134 for tomorrow. That is 1lb below his last winning mark and he is 5lb lower than for his super effort last year. He is a big price at 28/1 and he looks well worth a small each way bet in what looks a wide open handicap.

STEVOS' SELECTION: INDIAN CASTLE E/W 28/1

CHAMPION HURDLE

I have written an in depth preview of this race for Bettingtools and you can find out who I fancy here (don't worry it is not Annie Power!!).

MARES HURDLE

This is a race that Willie Mullins has dominated in recent seasons with Quevega and Glen's Melody, and the Irish handler has another very warm order in Vroum Vroum Mag. She has won Grade 2s both hurdling and chasing and she has shown she handles any ground. She is an 11/10 shot though, and there is definite each way value to be found elsewhere.

The horse I will be taking a chance on is the Govanness who runs for Dr Newland and who will be ridden by champion elect Richard Johnson. This  7yo daughter of Kayf Tara has yet to taste success at Graded level, but she is twice a Cheltenham winner and she won a decent listed handicap last April here over 21f good. She also took a listed bumper here back in 2013 (good to soft) when she beat Lily Waugh. This will be her first run at the festival and while she was 13l behind Vroum Vroum Mag last time out at Ascot (23.5f soft) the ground was against her, and back down in trip on good ground she could get an awful lot closer tomorrow. She is a confident each way selection at odds of 16/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: THE GOVANNESS E/W 16/1

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

Another absolute battle charge with 20 declared to take their chances and any amount with a case to be made for them. Gordon Elliott has won it twice in recent seasons and he looks to have another great chance of landing this four mile slog with Noble Endeavour. He looks short enough though at odds of 7/1 and one that could run well at a bigger price is the Paul Nicholls' trained Vicente.

This 7yo son of Dom Alco has decent course form in the book and he has reportedly been freshened up with this race in mind. He has won twice here from two previous visits (21f good, 24.5f good to soft) and he was also a decent 2nd to Shantou Village here back in October (24.5f good). His only poor run here came when the ground was soft back in December,but he will get his preferred ground tomorrow and he also gets a decent jockey in Will Biddick. He has looked an out and out stayer which you obviously need to be to have a chance in this race, and over the extra mile he can reverse the form with Shantou Flyer. At 16/1 he shouldn't be discounted and he looks worth a tiny interest each way in a wide open race.

STEVOS' SELECTION: VICENTE E/W 16/1

NOVICES' HANDICAP CHASE

I really fancied Katachenko for this race but unfortunately he just missed the cut, so I have had to come up with an alternative. It is a really tricky looking race and as with most of the handicaps at the festival there is an angle to be found for almost every runner. One trainer that has a more than decent record at Cheltenham is Henry De Bromhead, and his horse Domesday Book looks a tad overpriced at odds of 25/1.

This 6yo son of Street Cry certainly wasn't bred with chasing in mind, and his pedigree is littered with black type from horses on the flat. His half brother Free Agent was a listed handicap winner off 98 on good to firm at York (14f) and his dam was a very useful mare, rated 111 and a dual listed winner, again on good to firm. Domesday book has yet to run on anything other than bottomless ground (bar in a maiden hurdle on debut when 2nd), and while he has won twice on it the suspicion remains that he could improve massively on a better surface.

He was highly tried last time in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown but he was no match for Douvan, finishing last of 3 beaten 28L. He has been handed a mark of 139 for his handicap debut after that run and Andrew Lynch takes the ride. The step up in trip on better ground could be the making of him, and at odds of 25/1 he looks worth a couple of quid each way for a trainer and jockey combination that are no strangers to success on the biggest days.

STEVOS' SELECTION: DOMESDAY BOOK E/W 25/1