Cheltenham Day 4 Selections

When Davy Russell was slung from Zabana's back as the JLT chase was about to get under way I feared the worst for the rest of the day's selections. However, Vautour justified the switch to the Ryanair by winning in spectacular fashion, and all this talk of 'oh, he should have run in the Gold Cup' doesn't wash with me. He simply didn't stay when Cue Card beat him in the King George and Mullins knew what he was at by sending him out for this race. Taquin Du Seuil unfortunately couldn't reward each way support but he wasn't disgraced back in 6th.

Rolling Maul was backed into 25/1 but he chased Flintham early doors who set an unrealistic pace, and he paid the price in the closing stages. Thistlecrack demolished the field in the World Hurdle and Whisper just coudn't go with them. No doubt he will go on to to put on a much better showing at Aintree. The highlight of the day was Empire of Dirt, who hosed up for us at 20/1. I feared he had got there too soon. but once King's Palace came alongside he found a little bit more, and he stormed home up the hill. Below are my selections for Day 4, the final day of a festival that has had it all.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

I was extremely taken by Ivanovich Gorbatov on his debut at Leopardstown and what made the performance so impressive was that it came on very heavy ground. He is by Montjeu and nice ground suited him well on the level, and he was good enough to win a maiden (13f good) and a  handicap off 97 (15f good to firm) in his three race flat career.

After his win at Leopardstown he was returned to the same venue for a Grade 1, and he was well beaten back in 4th by Footpad, again on bad ground. It was a puzzling run given that he seemingly showed heavy ground suited on his previous start, and he has accordingly drifted like a barge for this race ever since. I think it is too soon to write him off, and on good ground he could be a totally different horse. Aidan was always likely to give his son a good one to get his training career off to a flying start, and at his current odds of 13/2 he looks a massive price.

For those seeking something at a bigger price Leoncavallo is worth a second look. He was moderate on the flat, rated just 68, but he has improved at a rate of knots for John Ferguson and he is unbeaten when completing. He had the measure of Sceau Royal by a nose when stepped up to listed company at Wetherby (16f soft) after maiden, dual novice and a class 2 condition hurdle wins, All those previous wins had come on decent ground so he did well to beat Sceau Royal on soft. I

He fell on his next start here at the last when still in with every chance, and though Sceau Royal was travelling very well and Leoncavallo was being niggled, who knows what would have happened in the closing stages. However, I think the Ferguson horse will be much better on good ground, and I am amazed to see him over treble the price of the Henderson horse. I think he represents a bit of value in a very competitive race.

STEVOS' SELECTION: IVANOVICH GORBATOV (WIN) 13/2 LEONCAVALLO (E/W 25/1)

COUNTY HURDLE

With no winner priced shorter than 10/1 since 2006 this is my type of race! However, 24 go to post and as is the case with all of these handicaps you don't just need to pick the right horse, you need a large slice of luck too. Either Nicholls or a Mullins has won it every year bar one since 2008, Tony Martin the only trainer to buck the trend with Ted Veale back in 2013. Any runner from those quarters is entitled to plenty of respect, and both Mullins and Nicholls have three entries apiece.

The horse that I think looks laid out for this race is Modus, formerly trained by Robert Stephens but now with Paul Nicholls and in the famous green and gold of JP McManus. He is a previous course winner (14f soft) and he has was runner up to Moon Racer here in the Champion Bumper (16.5f good) last year. He followed that with an excellent run at Punchestown in 3rd in the Irish equivalent behind Bellshill, beaten 4L, and among the horses behind him that day was Altior, who could only manage 6th, 5L behind Modus.

He hacked up on his hurdle debut in a class 3 novice event at Taunton (19f good), and that run proved his stamina. He won his next start in more workmanlike fashion at Newbury (16.5f soft) under a penalty, but the wheels seemed to come off after that. He was 3rd next time back at Taunton (19f), but the ground was bottomless and that was never going to suit this 6yo son of Motivator. It was heavy again when he was beaten out of sight behind Agrapart at Newbury (16.5f) and I think it makes sense to put a line through those two efforts.

He returns to good ground tomorrow for the first time since that easy Taunton win, and he has been handed a mark of 139 for his handicap debut. I think that could massively underestimate his ability on this sort of ground, and while Geraghty prefers Great Field that doesn't put me off. I have seen enough 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th strings owned by JP win to know that jockey bookings should be taken with a pinch of salt in these handicaps. In any case, Nick Schofield is a more than capable pilot and he is likely to have been riding Modus out at home. He looks a big price at 16/1 and on his bumper form he could be thrown in off 139.

STEVOS' SELECTION: MODUS (E/W) 16/1

ALBERT BARTLETT HURDLE

The 'potato race' as it is affectionately known  by Mark 'The Couch' Winstanley, and Barters Hill is well fancied to take this for the home team. It is hard to argue with his form or attitude, and he is a worthy favourite. However, at 4/1 he looks skinny enough in a race that the Irish have won for the last two years.

I have to admit I don't have a strong opinion on this race, but one horse that has caught my eye at a huge price is Balko Des Flos, yet another Gigginstown gelding in the care of Willie Mullins. This 5yo son  of Balko is 3/4 under rules, winning two bumpers and making amends last time for a heavy hurdle debut defeat at Navan (16f heavy), going to Punchestown, beating Robin Thyme by 3L (20f soft).

He beat a horse called Jett on debut, and he went on to win next time out. Robin Thyme, who was 3L behind Balko Des Flos at Punchestown, hacked up by 7L in a maiden at the same venue last month. The form is nothing to write home about in comparison to what some of the other horses in the race have achieved, but his half brother Salut Flo loved good ground and he was also a festival winner for David Pipe, taking the Byrne Plate back in 2012 (21f good).

This fella will get good ground for the first time in his career tomorrow and though he has been overlooked by Bryan Cooper, who prefers the chances of Gangster, David Mullins is a more than able replacement. At his current odds of 33/1 Balko Des Flos is worth a couple of quid each way in the hope that good ground is the making of him.

STEVOS' SELECTION: BALKO DES FLOS (E/W) 33/1

CHELTEHNAM GOLD CUP

I have written an in depth preview of the main event for Bettingtools and you can find out who I fancy by clicking here

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FOXHUNTER CHASE

This is a race I never have a bet on and I won't be changing the habit of a lifetime this year. Vicky Pendleton will be in the spotlight, but I won't be backing her, and if a gun was put to my head and I was forced to have a fiver each way on something I would go with Need To Know for John Paul Brennan at 66/1. It is not a betting heat for me though and I'll just be sitting back and watching.

MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONALS' HANDICAP

Mullins has won 3 of the last 5, and he is going for a hat trick after producing Killultagh Vic to win it last year. I have looked at this race for hours on end and I feel as though I am no closer to finding the winner. Gordon Elliott has had a few near misses in recent years in this race, and he has openly admitted he would love to win it.

The one that I think could be potentially well treated off 139 is Whiteout, trained by Willie Mullins and she will be ridden by young Jonathan Moore. This 5yo daughter of Samum is 4/9 over hurdles and she has won on ground ranging from soft to good. She got to within 4L of Identity Thief at Down Royal back in October and he went on to win the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle before finishing a respectable 6th in the Champion Hurdle here on Tuesday.

She also claimed the scalp of Gitane Du Berlais, 5th behind Vroum Vroum Mag here earlier this week, at Punchestown back in November and she is perhaps best excused her last effort when she was well beaten at Leopardstown (20f) as the heavy ground likely didn't suit. She will appreciate the return to decent ground, she should stay the trip and at odds of 33/1 she looks worth a small each way bet in a wide open race.

STEVOS' SELECTION: WHITEOUT (E/W) 33/1

GRAND ANNUAL CHASE

I have long had a fancy from this race and I think Croco Bay is one of the best each way bets of the festival. You can read why here.