Forecast Rain Could Work A Treat For Sheila At Bath

Vincentti was the subject of a big market move before the off at Salisbury and his odds tumbled from 12/1 to 11/2. As per usual he dwelt at the start, so his decent draw turned out to be a hindrance rather than a help. Da Silva stuck to the inside, and though Vincentti travelled well it was apparent a couple of furlongs from home that he had no hope of getting a run up the inner. Da Silva pulled him out widest of all, but by the time he found his full stride the winner had flown. He stayed on really well to grab second, but it was frustrating because with a clearer passage he surely would have gone a lot closer.

Wednesday's selection goes at Bath, and I have been keeping a close eye on the weather forecast for the Somerset track. There has been plenty of precipitation around during the last 24 hours, and there is a fair bit more due before the start of racing on Wednesday. The ground is currently described as good, but the chances are it will have eased significantly by the time of the 5.00 tomorrow. I reckon all the rain will suit Sheila's Treat, a 3yo gelded son of Frozen Power who was a two time winner on the all weather last year.

This fella improved dramatically after three non-descript runs in maidens at the tail end of last season, and he scored on his first two handicap runs. He made a mockery of his initial mark of 60 in a class 6 at Wolves (8.5f st) at odds of 20/1, and the 2nd and 4th home that day have gone on to win 5 races between them. He followed up next time out at Kempton (8f) in a class 5, again on the all weather, this time prevailing by a short head off 67.

He was put away after that win in December and made his seasonal reappearance at Ascot on quick ground over 7f off his new mark of 72 in a class 4 handicap. He ran a perfectly respectable race, finishing 7th of 17, and the horse that finished less than a length ahead of him in 6th has gone on to score off 85. He wasn't as good over 10f at Sandown next time out, but the trip likely stretched him and he also pulled hard in the early stages.

The run that made me interested in Sheila's Treat came on his penultimate start in a class 5 handicap at Newbury. It was his first time to encounter soft ground, and I thought he ran a cracking race off a mark of 67. He travelled really well and looked the most likely winner 2f out. He just seemed to tire slightly in the closing stages and he had to settle for 4th, just under 6L behind the winner. However, the form of that race has been boosted by the 3rd and the 6th both going on to win since.

Last time out in another class 5 at Windsor Sheila's Treat was sent off at just 9/2, but Oisin Murphy had a day to forget in the saddle. He seemed to break perfectly well from his decent draw in stall 3, but somehow he ended up nearer last then first. He was then switched wide to make his challenge in the closing stages, and at Windsor those tactics rarely end well. Every cloud has a silver lining though, and he returns to what will hopefully be a softer surface off a mark of just 63,

I think his run at Newbury was very promising, and off 4lb lower he should have a much better chance of sustaining his effort until the finish. He also drops back into class 6 company for the first time since his handicap debut win, and this race doesn't look anywhere near as strong as those Newbury or Ascot heats. Murphy retains the ride and he has a more than decent record of 7 wins from 44 rides for Coakley. Sheila's Treat can currently be backed at odds of 16/1, and at that sort of price he is worth a couple of quid each way.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 5.00 BATH-SHEILA'S TREAT E/W @ 16/1