Sunday's Selection

Sheila's Treat was a disaster last week and his performance neatly illustrated the danger in following market movers. I put him up at 16/1 the night before the race, and I was pleasantly surprised to see he had been 'backed' into half that price when I awoke from my slumber the next morning. The 'support' continued in the run up to the off, and he was sent off an 11/2 shot. While I thought he was a bit overpriced at 16s, I equally believed that 11/2 was way too short.

He ended up running an absolute stinker, and I don't think the ground was soft enough. I always advise keeping stakes relatively small on my big priced selections, and I would urge anyone who reads this blog not to be tempted to increase your stake if the price has shortened. The markets are the biggest influence that bookmakers hold over punters, and I follow a policy of treating the vast majority of market moves with a pinch of salt. I learned the hard way that following so called gambles blindly is a sure fire way to end up in the poorhouse. Ground, judgement and form (in that order) are much more important when it comes to finding winners.

It was Shergar Cup day on Saturday at Ascot and it is not a format I am a fan of. It is a chance for a chosen few jockeys to have their day in the sun, but 10 runner fields are not my cup of tea. It was the first Saturday in I don't know how long that I didn't have a bet, but I will be going back to the coalface tomorrow at the Curragh with a Sheila Lavery trained son of Zoffany that looks sure to appreciate the quick ground at the Kildare venue.

Sheila Lavery is a trainer I have a huge amount of time for, and she places her small string to excellent effect. She has been amongst the winners in the last couple of months, and she fired in four winners during July. Pick Of Any goes in the 4.35 at the Curragh on Sunday, a 7f handicap, and this 3yo gelding comes here after a below par run at Galway last time out. However, the ground was soft out West that day and he is better judged on his previous two runs, in a 5f maiden (gd/yld) at Naas and then over 6f on good on his handicap debut at Navan.

That maiden in Naas over 5f was the first time that this gelding showed any real sign of ability, and he stayed on really well late in the day for 5th after looking well held coming into the last couple of furlongs. It was a similar story in Navan when he made his handicap debut off a mark of 68. He dwelt, looked held and then once switched wide he stayed on eyecatchingly and ended up almost snatching a place.

He really seemed to relish the decent ground in Navan and it was no surprise to see him struggle on soft ground last time at Galway. I think he is capable of making his presence felt off 2lb lower then he was for a 1.75L defeat on his handicap debut, with the return to quick ground and the 7f trip both in his favour. He carries a feather weight of just 8st 8lbs thanks to his 3yo weight allowance, and Michael Hussey takes the ride (only previous winner for Lavery was a 16/1 shot). He has a grand draw in stall 3 and at odds of 16/1 he is the each way selection in a competitive looking handicap.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.35 CURRAGH-PICK OF ANY E/W 16/1