Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting-Day 3

It was a tough day for the blog on Friday, and Squire's effort was particularly disappointing. I really fancied him to run big, but he never got involved and was well beaten off in the end. Manaboo also ran a stinker, while Quloob never landed a blow either. I thought Big Sigh actually ran alright, and he could be worth backing next time out. He was as green as grass, and he did tire in the final furlong, but there is definitely some ability there.

Lady Of Camelot ran an absolute cracker to be second to the favourite, and she travelled so well into the race I thought she might reel in the eventual winner. Star Storm came back to form, and he ran a fine race to finish 3rd. Unfortunately with only 6 runners we didn't get paid e/w but at least we got a run for our money. Today is Cambridgeshire Day, and to find out my fancies for what is a superb day of racing just read below...

RACE 1

There isn't much form to go on in this 7f  maiden for the girls, and of those that have seen the track the John Gosden trained Elias Ruby has probably achieved most. However, she will surely be vulnerable to anything half decent and the one I am taking a chance on at a huge price is the Charlie Fellowes trained Crimson Rosette.

This daughter of Teofilo is out of a Lemon Drop Kid 3yo maiden winner (rated 90) who herself is a full sister to Group 3 winner Valiant Girl and dual Group 2 winner Bronze Cannon (who also won a 2yo maiden over 8f). Another couple of her half siblings have earned black type too, and it is a really talented family. Teofilo has a 31% strike rate with his 2yo runners, and a 39% strike rate from 7-9f.

The owner of this horse is Anthony Oppenheimer, also the owner of Derby hero Golden Horn among others, and this is the fourth 2yo he has had with Newmarket trainer Charlie Fellowes. Of the previous three, there was one winner and that came here last season over 6f. Fellowes generally does very well with his 2yos, and he operates at a more than respectable 21% strike rate (10/48). Stakes should be kept to a minimum, but this filly looks worth a couple of quid each way at her current odds of 33/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: CRIMSON ROSETTE E/W 33/1

RACE 2

Arcada is the selection in the Group 2 Royal Lodge for the O'Brien brothers. This 2yo son of Rip Van Winkle has been campaigned solely on ground with an ease, and I think we could see a different horse today on the forecast good to firm ground. The only time he has had good in the description (gd/yld at the Curragh) he won, and the second home that day has since gone on to score twice, including a Listed race by 2l last time out.

He is extremely well bred, and his dam ran the best race of her career here in the Cambrigeshire when she was 4th, beaten 1.5L off a mark of 92 on good to firm back in 2009. Both her wins came on quick ground, and she is related to a host of horses that preferred quick conditions. I think Arcada will relish the surface at Newmarket tomorrow, and he is capable of going close at odds of 9/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: ARCADA E/W 9/1

RACE 3

There may be only 6 runners in the Group 1 Cheveley Park this year, but it is still a cracking little contest. Queen Kindly is flying the flag for Frankel and Fahey, while Roly Poly will be looking to make her presence felt for Ballydoyle. However, Lady Aurelia brings Group 1 winning form to the table, she is unbeaten in her three race career and this daughter of Scat Daddy will be hard to beat. No bet for me here, but I will be hoping to witness a scintillating display from the Wesley Ward trained filly.

RACE 4

For all intents and purposes this year's Middle Park looks a match between Blue Point and Mehmas and, on the evidence of their clash at Goodwood, the Appleby horse should have the upper hand. However, there are plenty of other interesting contenders in the field, and one of the least exposed is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Silver Line. Best Solution may well have won for us at a big price earlier this week with a clearer passage, so hopefully Silver Line can make amends for us here.

Bin Suroor has his string in fine fettle now after a bug hit his yard during the summer. This son of Dark Angel may not boast the reputation of some of his shorter priced rivals, but he has some more than decent form in the book. He hasn't been seen since July, so he is going to be fresher than all of his rivals, and he went close in a couple of Group 2s after his facile maiden win.

He was beaten less than a length at Ascot on soft, and then he ran a massive race behind Mehmas on the July course in the Group 2 Arqana stakes. He was 1.5l behind that rival in 4th place, and if he has come on during his break he could easily close the gap to that rival. Danny Tudhope is a good jockey booking, and at more than 5 times the odds of Mehmas I reckon Silver Line could sneak a place at odds of 28/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: SILVER LINE E/W 28/1

RACE 5-THE CAMBRIDGESHIRE

Those of you who have been reading the blog from the start might remember me tipping up Examiner at odds of 50/1 for this race last year on good ground, and he duly ran a huge race to finish 3rd, beaten 1L off 88. I have had him in mind for this year's renewal ever since, and he comes here on the back of a confidence boosting win at Epsom 113 days ago off 92.

The break is not a worry as he goes well fresh, and his mark new mark of 96 should be well within reach. The ground is a slight worry, but once there is no jar he should be fine and his shrewd handler Stuart Williams has reported that his preparation has gone swimmingly. Oisin Murphy is a great booking, and he knows what it takes to win these big field handicaps. His draw in 18 gives him options, and at odds of 20/1 he looks worthy of a few quid each way.

At even bigger odds (for small stakes) I think Bastille Day is worth a second look. David Elsworth has his string ticking over nicely and his last 8 runners have returned form figures of 31163322. This 4yo son of Champs Elysees was in great form earlier in the season, winning 3 in a row, with the final win coming off 85 at Epsom (8.5f gd). He subsequently ran in a class 3 handicap here over 8f off his revised mark of 89, and he ran a creditable race to finish 5th, staying on really well in the closing stages.

He was ridden more prominently next time at Sandown (8f gd/fm) and he faded into 6th. He was given a little mid season break after that run, and returned to action at Kempton, where he again stayed on really well over 8f and he would have finished closer with a clearer run. That should put him spot on for this and, if his promising jockey's 7lb claim is considered, he is effectively off a mark of 82, 3lb below the mark he won off at Epsom. He has form figures of 425 from his three runs at Newmarket, the step up to 9f looks sure to suit, and he could easily outrun his odds of 66/1.

STEVOS' SELECTIONS: EXAMINER E/W 20/1 BASTILLE DAY E/W 66/1

ONE FROM HAYDOCK

 I have no strong fancies for the remaining two races at Newmarket, but I am going to have a flutter on Dutch Masterpiece at Haydock. This previous course and distance winner has been slowly working his way back to form, and he was only beaten 4l in 6th here off 98 a couple of weeks ago. He loved a bit of cut in his younger days, but his best recent form has come on good ground, and conditions should be ideal for him today. He is 3lb below his last winning handicap mark, Hector Crouch takes off another 5lb, and at odds of 18/1 he is well worth backing each way.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 4.30 HAYDOCK-DUTCH MASTERPIECE E/W 18/1