Havre Overpriced At Ascot

Havre de Paix is a horse that regular readers of this blog will be familiar with. I tipped her up just a couple of weeks ago (read here) but unfortunately she was pulled and was a non runner. She did run a few days later at Ascot (8f gd) and she ran a cracking race to finish 2nd to Mittens off a mark of 90. She made a bold bid from the front, tiring late on, so dropping back to 7f looks a prudent move. Considering it was her first outing since May it was a very creditable effort and she will strip a lot fitter with that run under her belt.

Havre De Paix looks too big a price at Ascot.

This 5yo daughter of Le Havre has some strong form in the book, even though she has only managed one win in her career so far (an 8f maiden at Chelmsford). She was only beaten a length in a Listed heat at Chantilly last October (9f soft) when conceding 4lb to the winner Rostova and that horse is now rated 99. She had Golden Stunner a neck behind, another filly she was conceding 4lb to, and that filly is now rated 107 and won a handicap off 97 earlier this season.

David Menuisier is a name that won’t be familiar to casual racing fans, but he is a trainer that is on the rise. He had a very quiet start to the season with all of his horses running below form (including this one) but it turned out that he had a virus in the yard. He didn’t have any runners for around 6 weeks, but he is back in full swing now and his last 8 runners have produced form figures of 21117362.

Martin Dwyer has been booked for the ride on Havre De Paix and he went very close on her the only previous time he was on board. He has an excellent record when riding for Menuisier, claiming 4 wins and 11 top 4 finishes from just 27 rides (frame hitting strike rate of 56%). The current ground description of good to soft looks ideal, as does the drop back in trip to 7f on the evidence of her last run and she also proved she handles the track last time out. At odds of 33/1 with William Hill I think Havre De Paix looks well worth backing each way at Ascot on Saturday.  

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.00 ASCOT (SAT)-HAVRE DE PAIX E/W @ 33/1