Nolan’s Charge Could Go Well At Thurles

Mala Beach took the Troytown in impressive fashion on Sunday, jumping boldly and cruising clear up the Navan hill. He is evidently a lot better than a handicapper and it will be interesting to see where he ends up in the Spring. My selection, He Rock’s, ran well for a very long way but the searching pace he helped set was too much for him on the testing ground and he faded in the home straight. He ended up finishing 8th, far from disgraced, and he can pick up a handicap or two this Winter at a lower level.

 

Mala Beach impressed at Navan.

Tomorrow I am taking a chance on one at a tasty price at Thurles and I think Urbanist looks an interesting runner for Shane Nolan and Robbie Colgan. Those two teamed up to win with Caolaneoin twice last season and they could be set to strike again in the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 14.55. This very nicely bred son of Black Sam Bellamy showed very little on his first few starts, including on handicap debut, but he showed a lot more last time and ran better than finishing position and distance beaten suggests.

Urbanist was settled at the rear of mid division last time at Fairyhouse (16f sft) and he was lobbing along nicely having jumped the first two hurdles well. However, he was hampered by a faller at the third hurdle and he lost 5 or 6 lengths. He found himself near the back of the race, but Patrick Corbett didn’t look to worried and he didn’t try to push him back up through the field. He raced near the rear of the field for the next 6f or so, and half a mile out he started to make ground.

Corbett switched him wide 4f out and as he started to shove along Urbanist seemed to be coming into the race nicely. It wasn’t the most vigorous of efforts by his jockey though and he also managed to run into trouble as they started turning for home. Urbanist lost a bit of momentum with a slowish jump at what was usually the 2nd last but this time was the last (the final hurdle was omitted), but once the leaders had flown Corbett pushed him along more firmly and he stayed on well in the closing stages for 6th.

That promising effort came off a mark of 83 and Urbanist has been dropped 2lb to 81 after that run. Pedigree suggests this trip will be fine for the 5yo, as his dam’s half brother Commanche Court was a classy 2 mile performer as a young horse, winning a Triumph Hurdle before going on to win an Irish Grand National. She is also a half sister to a 1 mile Listed flat winner as well as winning a 10f flat race and 2 mile hurdle herself.

The ground is currently described as soft at Thurles and that surface should pose no problems for Urbanist. Robbie Colgan has ridden a couple of winners from 27 rides for Shane Nolan and he is a jockey with no shortage of experience taking over from a 3lb claimer. If Urbanist can avoid accidents and gets a kinder trip through the race than last time, I think he is capable of producing a big run and at odds of 20/1 he is worth chancing each way in a trappy looking race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.55 THURLES-URBANIST E/W @ 20/1 

Mahon’s Charge Can Rock Them In Troytown

First of all, apologies for the lack of a blog post in the past week. I have taken on some extra work and time constraints mean I haven’t been able to tip anything up. Hopefully things will settle down in the next couple of weeks and I will be able to post more regularly. Last week’s selection Project Bluebook was never put into the race in the Greatwood but I am convinced he has a big handicap in him and he is not one to lose faith in just yet, especially when he is returned to better ground.

 

Stephen Mahon will be trying to win his second Troytown Chase.

Tomorrow one of the big races of the year on the National Hunt scene in Ireland is run at Navan. The Troytown Handicap Chase has been won by some serious horses in recent years, including the likes of Empire Of Dirt (2016), Notre Pere (2008) and two time winner Lyreen Wonder (2000, 2001). Gordon Elliott has won it for the past three years and he supplies 6 of the 22 runners for this season’s renewal.

General Principle and Mala Beach look to be his two main hopes of completing the four timer, but at much bigger odds I think He Rock’s could be capable of a bold show from near the foot of the weights. It is 12 years since Mahon won this race with Prince Of Tara and he has often mentioned He Rock’s in the same breath as that horse. The 8yo son of Beneficial has won three chases so far in his career and the last of those came off a mark of 113 on bottomless ground at Roscommon (25.5f).

That 22L win in October of last year saw He Rock’s handicap mark raised 12lb to 125 but he has run some cracking races off his revised rating. At the start of this year he had form figures of 232 off marks of 124, 126 and 125 respectively so he is undoubtedly capable of hitting the frame off his current rating. Mahon is likely to have trained him with this race firmly in mind, and he made a pleasing enough reappearance at Galway last month.

He was 3rd beaten 21L behind Call It Magic off 126 that day on heavy ground over an inadequate trip of 22.5f. Considering he likely needed the run from a fitness perspective it wasn’t a bad effort at all and he will be in prime condition on Sunday with that behind him. Usual partner Denis O’Regan would not be able to do the weight on him in the Troytown but Mahon has found a more than able deputy in young Jonathon Moore.

He Rock’s will relish the heavy ground at Navan and in such a big field his favoured prominent racing style has to be seen as a positive. He should be at peak fitness after his run at Galway and he has shown he is capable of making an impact off his current rating of 126. His trainer knows what is required to win a race of this nature and at odds of 40/1 I think He Rock’s is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.35 NAVAN-HE ROCK’S E/W @ 40/1 (5 places Paddy Power) 

Bluebook Looks Overpriced In The Greatwood

Pivotal Flame was simply outclassed for us on Friday and she never got involved. She was left behind as the pace lifted down the back and her jumping let her down. I still believe this filly possesses ability and she can make her presence felt once she gains a bit more experience. On Sunday I like the look of one in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham and I think Project Bluebook looks well overpriced for this 16.5f contest.

 

Project Bluebook ticks a lot of boxes for the Greatwood.

John Quinn’s 4yo has run some cracking races in big field handicaps, including when 4th in the Fred Winter back in March off 138. He followed that up with a fine performance when beating Dandy Mag and Ex Patriot in brave fashion in a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairyhouse(16f yld). That win saw his rating hiked to 141 but he showed he could be competitive off his revised mark when 6th behind Tigris River in the Galway Hurdle.

He is 3lb better off with that rival now and though he was a long way behind him at Galway I think he was given a poor ride by Brian Hughes and with a kinder trip he would have finished a lot closer. Project Bluebook was posted wide throughout and raced in rear, and as the race developed ahead of him he was simply left with far too much to do. He did stay on well up the Galway hill though and he must have caught the handicapper’s eye as he raised him 2lb for that run.

John Quinn’s charge is no slouch on the level either and he last ran in a flat handicap at Chepstow, chasing useful stayer Taws home off a mark of 80. He has been given a 3 month break since that good effort but that isn’t a big worry as he has form figures of 22 when returning from a break of 3 months or more. He won’t be too worried about the ground either as he has won on the flat on soft so he should handle it well.

The form of his trainer John Quinn is another positive as 2 of his last 12 runners have won. Brian Hughes has a fine record when riding for Quinn, winning on 11 of 41 rides, with a further 21 top 4 finishes, for a fabulous frame hitting strike rate of just over 78%. All things considered, I think Project Bluebook is an absolutely massive price at odds of 28/1 and at those odds he has to be worth chancing each way (6 places Skybet).

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.00 CHELTENHAM: PROJECT BLUEBOOK E/W 28/1

Phelan’s Flame Could Burn Brightly At Cheltenham

I thought Cohesion ran a better race for us than his finishing position suggests last week in the November handicap as very little went right for him. David Bridgwater’s charge didn’t get as good a start as he would have liked and George Wood couldn’t get him into his preferred prominent position early doors. He raced on the inner, got shuffled back through the field and by the time George Wood switched him wide in the home straight the race was over. When he did find daylight he stayed on very well, and though he finished 14th he was only 8L behind the winner and 4l off a place.

 

Sean Houlihan's 7lb claim could be crucial.

My fancy for tomorrow at Cheltenham has form that ties in with Cohesion, and I think Pivotal Flame looks too big a price in the 16.5f handicap hurdle at 13.15. Pat Phelan’s 4yo daughter of Pivotal has improved with every run since going hurdling and her best effort yet came when 4th behind Highway One O One at Plumpton last time out. She was beaten just over 9L by the winner that day, but she was only a length behind the runner up Cohesion and on the evidence of that run I think her opening mark of 114 looks workable.

Now, she was admittedly receiving a fair chunk of weight from the majority of her rivals that day at Plumpton, but she pulled pretty hard early on and if she had settled better she could have finished a lot closer to the winner who is now rated 133. The runner up Cohesion is rated over 100 on the level and the 3rd home Trust The Man, a 200/1 shot, backed up his good run by finishing a decent 2nd behind the very highly rated and unbeaten Irish Prophecy on his next start.

Sean Houlihan, who almost guided Milrow to victory for us here at a monster price a few weeks back, keeps the faith and that looks a big plus as Sophie Leech has a couple of runners in this race. I am not sure if she has first dibs on Houlihan but presumably he had the choice between Pivotal Flame and her two entries. His 7lb claim means that Pivotal Flame makes her handicap debut off effectively 107 and I think she has the raw ability to be competitive off that rating.

The big worry for me with Pivotal Flame is her lack of experience over hurdles as this is just her 5th start in this sphere. Her jumping looked a little bit sketchy at times at Plumpton, but it got better as the race wore on and hopefully she has learned enough in her three completions over timber to allow her to hold her own in this big field. If she settles early and jumps well I think she is capable of putting up a bold show, and at the monstrous price of 66/1 I think she has to be worth a fiver each way.

I have also put up a trio of tips for Mybettingbonus tomorrow. Click here to see them.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.15 CHELTENHAM-PIVOTAL FLAME E/W @ 66/1 (5 places PP)

Stick With Cohesion At Doncaster

We capped off what was a good weekend last week with Nakeeta running a massive race in a Melbourne Cup that was dominated by European horses. Joseph O’Brien saddled Rekindling to take the win but Nakeeta ran a gallant race in 5th and with plenty of bookies paying out on the first 5 home it was good enough for each way purposes. He didn’t enjoy the clearest of passages, but he stayed on very well in the closing stages and Iain Jardine can be very proud of his stable star.

 

David Bridgewater is better known as a national hunt trainer.

Tomorrow I fancy one at a nice price in the 12f November Handicap at Doncaster and I think Cohesion is a very interesting contender for David Bridgwater with George Wood claiming 3lb. I tipped this fella up for the Ebor but he was declared a non runner. He was last seen running a nice race to be 2nd in a maiden hurdle behind Highway One O One at Plumpton (16f gd/sft) last month. That should have put him spot on for his return to the level and he has some smart form in this sphere.

His last two flat runs came over 15f at Chantilly when he was well beaten in a Group 3 and he was previously 4th in a hot 2 mile contest at the All Weather Championships. He was a shade unlucky behind Winning Story that day and with a clearer run he would have finished a lot closer to the winner. His last 12f run came in a handicap off 101 at Wolverhampton when he won by 1.5L and the 3rd home that day, Fabricate, has gone on to win a Group 3 since so it looks rock solid form.

His trainer David Bridgwater is best known for training jumpers like The Giant Bolster and Cohesion is one of only two winners he has had on the level. The booking of George Wood looks a signal of intent as his 3lb claim means that Cohesion is effectively running off his last winning mark of 101 and Wood showed he knows what it takes in these big handicaps by scoring in the Cambridgeshire aboard 50/1 shot Dolphin Vista.

The draw has been kind to Cohesion who finds himself in stall 4 and with 23 runners due to go to post hopefully he gets away to a decent start and is able to assume his customary prominent racing position. He was a winner on heavy when trained in France so soft ground holds no fears and he should be at peak fitness after his run over hurdles. This son of Champs Elysees has the credentials to run a massive race and at odds of 25/1 he looks well worth chancing each way.

I have posted another three selections for Mybettingbonus and you can check them out by clicking here.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.15 DONCASTER-COHESION E/W @ 25/1 

Nakeeta Can Nail Them Late Down Under

We had a superb Saturday at the Breeders’ Cup with Lady Caledonia and Talismanic both obliging at double figure prices. Mind Your Biscuits, Lancaster Bomber and Collected landed each way bets for us too so overall it was a profitable meeting. The focus now switches from America to Australia and the race that stops a nation. The Melbourne Cup gets under way at 4am Tuesday our time so don’t forget to either set that alarm or get in some nice coffee (or something stronger perhaps!).

 

Nakeeta looks well overpriced at 25/1.

The one I like at a nice price in this year’s Melbourne Cup is Nakeeta, a horse last sighted winning The Ebor by a head at York for Iain Jardine off a mark of 103 (14f gd). That narrow victory capped off what has been a real rags to riches tale for the gelded 6yo son of Sixties Icon whose first career win came back in 2014 in a class 5 maiden handicap at Pontefract off a mark of just 66! He has improved relentlessly since then and he more than deserves his place in a race of this magnitude.

There are a lot of positives for Nakeeta regarding his chance in this contest, none more so than the manner of his win last time in The Ebor. Anchored in rear until they turned for home he didn’t enjoy a clear passage at all, squeezing through a couple of narrow gaps to get into the race. When he did find daylight 2f from home he showed a very nice turn of foot to seal the deal, and even his jockey dropping the reins close home wasn’t going to stop him from scoring.

He probably was value for more than the winning distance of a head and I got the impression that if the race was further than 14f he would have won by a wider margin. Nakeeta seems to relish the rough and tumble of big fields, a huge asset in a race like the Melbourne Cup, and though he is drawn wide it shouldn’t hinder him too much as he enjoys being held up and produced with a late run. He will have the assistance of the vastly experienced Glyn Schofield in the saddle and he knows his way around this track.

The step up to 2 miles is no problem for Nakeeta either as his stamina is assured. He stayed on strongly for 2nd in the Chester Cup last year and that race is run over 2 miles and 2 furlongs. Nakeeta has been given plenty of time to get over his exertions at York and seeing as that was only his fourth run of the season he is a relatively fresh horse. Heartbreak City was touched off in the Melbourne Cup after plotting the same route as Nakeeta last season, and at odds of 25/1 hopefully the Scottish star can go one better. 

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MELBOURNE CUP-NAKEETA E/W @ 25/1 

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Preview

Two of our four Breeders’ Cup selections on Friday ran well, while the less said about the other two the better. September ran a massive race to finish 3rd as she had to make her challenge very wide. She is a filly that should be kept onside next season, particularly on quick ground. Giant Expectations was never put into the race at any stage after a slow start and James Garfield never found daylight under Frankie.

Abel Tasman flew home for 2nd but I think she should have won and if Mike Smith could ride the race again I am sure he would do it differently. I will only be previewing the Grade 1s tonight but I will be keeping a close eye on Corinthia Knight in the 18.20. This will be Ontoawinner’s first ever Breeders’ Cup runner and he could well be suited by the track. At double figure odds he could be worth backing each way and I would love to see him run well for his owners and Archie Watson.

 

Caledonia Road looks an interesing runner for Ralph Nicks.

19.00 JUVENILE FILLIES

This 8.5f dirt race sees 13 speedy 2yo fillies go to post and, as is the case with most of the dirt races, European horses have struggled in this. There is no British or Irish representative here and in a field loaded with front runners it looks sure to be run at a furious gallop. The top two in the market are the clear form picks, but they both like to be up there and I think this could set up for a closer.

Mike Smith misjudged the timing of his effort on Abel Tasman for us yesterday, but perhaps he can make amends here on Caledonia Road. This filly is drawn wide but she will likely be dropped out the back and produced late on. She ran a good race under patient tactics last time when chasing home Separationofpowers in a Grade 1 and with that horse unlikely to get an easy time up front I think Caledonia Road could reverse that form and at nice odds she is the each way suggestion.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CALEDONIA ROAD E/W @ 18/1

Washington DC will enjoy the firm ground at Del Mar.

 19.37 TURF SPRINT

The fact that previous winner Mongolian Saturday can be backed at 66/1 shows that this is a deep race and the Europeans hold a strong hand. Flying filly Lady Aurelia is the short priced favourite and if she is at her brilliant best she will be hard to beat, particularly as she carries less weight than all of her rivals. Marsha is the shortest of the British and Irish challengers, but at a much bigger price Washington DC is of interest on the forecast firm ground.

This son of Zoffany has yet to win at the highest level in ten attempts but the fact that O’Brien has persisted with him suggests that he believes the 4yo is capable. He won impressively in a Group 3 at the Curragh the last time he ran on good to firm and he had excuses the last twice. He is far from reliable and he needs everything to go right, but if things fall into place he could be dangerous and a small e/w bet at 25/1 is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: WASHINGTON DC E/W @ 25/1

Unique Bella will be hard to beat.

20.14 FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

This race is all about Unique Bella, and if she repeats the form of her penultimate start when easily beating Abel Tasman then she will be very hard to beat. Our old pal Mike Smith will have to work his magic from stall 11 and she will need to be fast from the gates. If she gets away well and doesn’t get trapped wide it will take a very good one to beat her.

Her trainer Jerry Hollendorfer had a nice winner with Battle Of Midway here yesterday so there are no worries regarding the form of his horses. Smith has a good record in the race, winning it twice, including last year on Finest City. The fact that he has abandoned that mare for Unique Bella says a lot and at odds of 2/1 she is a confident selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: UNIQUE BELLA @ 2/1 WIN

Senga could go well for France.

21.00 FILLY AND MARE TURF

This race has proved to be a happy hunting ground for European horses and Michael Stoute is the joint leading trainer with 3 wins. He teamed up with Frankie Dettori last year with Queen’s Trust to win it and they are back to try and repeat the dose this year. She ran a cracker her only run on quick ground this season when 2L behind Highland Reel and she can be forgiven her recent runs on ground softer than ideal. With firm ground forecast at Del Mar she should run a good race at 9/1.

However, at a slightly bigger price I think Senga could run a big race for Pascal Bary and Stephane Pasquier. This French raider loves quick ground and her only defeat since debut on good or better came behind Wuheida over a mile. She was finishing fast that day so the extra furlong here should enable her to reverse that form. She is nicely drawn in stall 2 and at odds of 12/1 I think she has outstanding each way claims.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SENGA E/W @ 12/1 NAP

Mind Your Biscuits has a good e/w chance.

21.37 DIRT SPRINT

Bob Baffert is the leading trainer in this race with 5 wins and he took it last year with Defrong. He is back with the now 4yo to defend his crown and from a plum draw in stall 2 he will be hard to peg back if fast from the gates.

For each way purposes perhaps Mind Your Biscuits can give his backers a run for their money. He is versatile tactically, he is a former Grade 1 winner and he wasn’t beaten far by Defrong in this last year. The quicker they go early the better for this fast finisher and a small each way bet is advised at 8/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MIND YOUR BISCUITS E/W @ 8/1

 

Lancaster Bomber could go one better than last year.

22.19 TURF MILE

European trainers have fared well in this race, especially Freddy Head who has the most wins with three. However, the Americans have dominated in recent years and no European trainer has scored since super mare Goldikova back in 2010. Aidan O’Brien has surprisingly never won this race but Lancaster Bomber could be the one to break his duck.

This 3yo son of War Front has won just 1 of his 13 career starts but he has run some cracking races in defeat at the highest level. The key to him, like so many of War Front’s progeny, is rattling quick ground and he will get his optimum conditions at Del Mar. He was runner up in the Juvenile Turf last year on firm, he ran well at Woodbine on his penultimate start on similar ground and at odds of 12/1 I think he holds very solid each way claims.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: LANCASTER BOMBER E/W @ 12/1

 

Bolt D'Oro looks a worthy favourite.

22.58 JUVENILE DIRT

Aidan O’Brien and Mick Kinane teamed up to win this race many moons ago with Johannesburg and O’Brien is back to try and repeat the dose with US Navy Flag. O’Brien won the Juvenile Turf on Friday night with Mendelssohn and that was a race that many pundits thought would be ideal for this fella. It will be the first time the son of War Front has ever encountered dirt, his Galileo dam never tried it either and on balance I think that he is skinny enough at 9/1 as he has a lot to prove.

Although he is drawn wide the current favourite Bolt D’Oro looks very hard to oppose here. He is unbeaten in three starts, including two here, and his last two wins have come at the highest level. He absolutely destroyed them last time on his first run at tonight’s trip at Santa Anita, he is versatile tactically and it is hard to pick holes in this son of Medagalia d’Oro. He may only be 5/4 but he should give favourite backers something to shout about.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BOLT D’ORO @ 5/4 NB

Andre Fabre is looking for his 3rd win in this race.

23.37 BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

This 12f race has been dominated by the European’s in recent years and they have been successful 17 times in total. That man Aidan O’Brien has won it six times and he will be looking to complete a hat trick having won it for the past two years with Highland Reel in 2016 and Found in 2015. Highland Reel is a short order to repeat the dose but O’Brien has another couple of entries and both Cliffs Of Moher and especially Seventh Heaven will enjoy the firm ground.

Andre Fabre has won this race twice and he has an interesting contender in Talismanic this year. This 4yo son of Medaglia d’Oro has yet to score at the highest level but he will enjoy the quick ground and he is 2/3 over 12f on good. He was a good 3rd in the Group 2 Prix Foy last time out, he will appreciate the return to a faster surface and from the plum draw in stall 1 he could give each way backers a good run for their money at 20/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TALISMANIC E/W @ 20/1

 

Collected looks a solid each way bet.

00.35 CLASSIC

In the early hours of Sunday morning 11 horses will go to post for the final race of the Breeders’ Cup meeting. Arrogate comes into the race as the 5/2 favourite but his air of invincibility is gone after meeting defeat on his last two runs. It is perhaps too soon to write him off and he has landed a great draw in stall 1.

The 7/1 about Collected looks a big price seeing as he beat Arrogate last time out over this course and distance and though he is drawn wide he is usually fairly quick from the gates so he should be able to get a prominent racing position. I really liked the way he galloped all the way to the line last time and I think he looks a rock solid each way bet with an excellent chance of winning.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: COLLECTED E/W @ 7/1

Breeders' Cup Friday Preview

The eyes of the equine world will be fixed firmly on Del Mar racecourse tonight as some of the most talented horses on the planet take each other on at the Breeders’ Cup. There are plenty of British and Irish challengers this year and Aidan O’Brien sends a strong squad across the Atlantic in pursuit of yet more Group 1 glory. The main action gets underway tonight with the Juvenile Fillies’ race and you can find out my fancy for all the big races below.

 

September will love the firm ground at Del Mar.

21.25-JUVENILE FILLIES’ TURF

The maestro of Ballydoyle looks to hold a strong hand here and Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Happily. However, that filly has yet to encounter ground faster than good and the firm going at Del Mar has to be a slight concern. Seamie Heffernan will partner September, a filly for whom there are no worries regarding the ground, and this regally bred daughter of Deep Impact could be the one to be on. She hasn’t been handed the best of draws in stall 10 so Seamie will need to be at his best, but at least she is proven on fast going.

She won a Listed race at Ascot easily on her only start on good to firm and she was only narrowly beaten by Laurens on good last time at Newmarket. Her dam, Peeping Fawn, was a winner on good to firm too so on pedigree it is a case of the faster the ground the better. Although Happily did beat her quite comfortably the last two times they met, the ground was soft on both occasions. September came out on top when they met on yielding and she can turn the tables on Happily tonight back on a sound surface at odds of 5/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SEPTEMBER @ 5/1

Giant Expectations could spring a surprise back up in trip.

 22.05-DIRT MILE

This is not a race that European horses have fared well in since its inception back in 2007. There are no British or Irish contenders this year and it looks a tricky puzzle to try and solve. One clue could be that only two 3yos have won in 10 renewals, so it might pay to concentrate on the older horses. 4yos Mor Spirit and Sharp Azteca are at the head of the market, but at bigger odds I think Giant Expectations could go well.

He is 1/2 at Del Mar, winning a Grade 2 here over 7f on his penultimate start before disappointing in a Grade 1 when dropped back to 6f last time out. He seemed to be only hitting top gear as he hit the line when winning here over 7f so he should be suited by stepping back up in trip. Hopefully they go quickly up front and give this fast finisher a pace to aim at, and if they do he could stay on late and reward each way support at 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: GIANT EXPECTATIONS E/W @ 25/1

James Garfield could give Frankie a fourth win in this race.

22.50-JUVENILE TURF

British and Irish trained horses have a fine record in this turf race and Aidan O’Brien leads the way with three wins since 2007. Frankie Dettori has also won it three times and both men will be looking to add to their tallies tonight. O’Brien fires just one bullet in Mendelssohn but I don’t think he represents much value at 11/2 given his achievements on the track. The one I like is the George Scott trained son of Exceed And Excel James Garfield and he will be ridden by that man Frankie Dettori.

This fella scored his first win at Group Level last time when beating Invincible Army over 6f at Newbury. He steps up in class and trip here, but I think he will handle this new distance judging by how he finished off his race at Newbury. He is related to a couple of 8f/10f winners too, so his pedigree suggests he should be fine. He will relish the forecast firm ground and he has a nice draw in stall 7. At odds of 13/2 James Garfield can give Frankie a 4th win in this and he is our NAP of the night.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: JAMES GARFIELD @ 13/2 NAP

Abel Tasman looks a big price at 8/1.

 23.35-DISTAFF

This is another dirt race that has proved to be an unhappy hunting ground for British and Irish horses with none winning since it was first run back in 1984. Mike Smith and William Mott have five wins each and they both look to hold strong hands in this year’s renewal. Elate is the favourite for Mott with Jose Velazquez booked, but we think Abel Tasman can uphold the form that saw her beat Elate in a 9f Grade 1 at Saratoga back in July.

This four time Grade 1 winner probably would have won last time out had she not got to the front as soon as she did. She was a winner here over 7f on her debut so she will have no issues with the track and she is unbeaten at 9f. Her trainer Bob Baffert has yet to win this race, but Abel Tasman could be the filly to break his duck and at odds of 8/1 she definitely represents each way value in what looks a pretty open race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ABEL TASMAN E/W @ 8/1

Keep An Eye On Katy At Sedgefield

Glen’s DD ran a lovely race for us on Sunday but unfortunately, she just didn’t get home on the bottomless ground. She travelled really well out the rear for Blackmore and when she gave him a squeeze she made ground stylishly, scything through the field and slickly flitting over the fences. I was rubbing my hands as they hit the 4f marker in anticipation of a tasty 40/1 payday, but a furlong later she hit the wall and Glen’s DD ended up coming home in 6th. I think with that run under her belt she will be dangerous to discount next time out, especially on slightly better ground.

 

Joe Colliver has a good record at Sedgefield.

I usually refrain from tipping up horses in 7 runner contests due to only being paid out on the first two home for each way bets, but for those of you who play on the exchanges you can bet on this mare to place in the first three. However, I just can’t resist having a small each way bet on Katy Royal at silly odds tomorrow as she was a big eyecatcher at Sedgefield on her last outing (20f gd). She races over a furlong further at the same track on similar ground on Thursday and that is enough to tempt me into having a small bet.

This nicely bred daughter of King’s Theatre is out of a dam that has yet to produce a winner from six attempts. However, her dam’s half brother Betty’s Boy was a Cheltenham Festival handicap winner and her half sister is the dam of Grade 2 winner Carraig Mor. Those horses all stayed very well, and it looks to me that Katy Royal is a similar type. She had shown very little up until last time out at Sedgefield, and when sent off at 200/1 and anchored at the rear early on it didn’t look like much would be forthcoming.

However, having watched the race back a couple of times I noticed that she was given a very considerate ride by Joe Colliver. He was at pains not to ask for too much too early and he held a tight rein near the rear of the field throughout. I loved how Katy Royal jumped the first couple of hurdles and though she got in close to a couple after that she jumped the last two nicely too. She was left with an awful lot to do by her jockey but when he got stuck in after the final fence she responded well to pressure to get up for 4th and, judging by how she crossed the line, there was plenty more left in the tank.

She is stepped up in trip to 21f on Thursday, a furlong further than last time, and the extra distance looks sure to suit. Joe Colliver is back in the plate and it will be interesting to see what sort of a ride he gives her in this contest. My hope is that she is held up again, hopefully off a strong pace, and if they go too quick up front she will be finishing fast and hopefully she can sneak into the frame. Another cause for optimism is her trainer and jockey’s individual records at Sedgefield.

Chris Fairhurst, whose only runner in the past two weeks won on the level at Newcastle, has an excellent frame hitting strike rate at Sedgefield of over 40% (4 wins 20 top 4 finishes from 59 runners). Colliver, for whom Katy Royal is the only ride today, has had 101 rides at the track, winning 13 races and achieving 41 top 4 finishes for a frame hitting strike rate of nearly 54%. I think there are more than enough reasons to chance a small e/w bet on Katy Royal, and at odds of 66/1 if she can sneak into the first two we will be well rewarded. 

I have also posted two tips for Thursday for Mybettingbonus, check them out by clicking here.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.30 SEDGEFIELD-KATY ROYAL E/W @ 66/1