Breeders’ Cup Saturday Preview

Two of our four Breeders’ Cup selections on Friday ran well, while the less said about the other two the better. September ran a massive race to finish 3rd as she had to make her challenge very wide. She is a filly that should be kept onside next season, particularly on quick ground. Giant Expectations was never put into the race at any stage after a slow start and James Garfield never found daylight under Frankie.

Abel Tasman flew home for 2nd but I think she should have won and if Mike Smith could ride the race again I am sure he would do it differently. I will only be previewing the Grade 1s tonight but I will be keeping a close eye on Corinthia Knight in the 18.20. This will be Ontoawinner’s first ever Breeders’ Cup runner and he could well be suited by the track. At double figure odds he could be worth backing each way and I would love to see him run well for his owners and Archie Watson.

 

Caledonia Road looks an interesing runner for Ralph Nicks.

19.00 JUVENILE FILLIES

This 8.5f dirt race sees 13 speedy 2yo fillies go to post and, as is the case with most of the dirt races, European horses have struggled in this. There is no British or Irish representative here and in a field loaded with front runners it looks sure to be run at a furious gallop. The top two in the market are the clear form picks, but they both like to be up there and I think this could set up for a closer.

Mike Smith misjudged the timing of his effort on Abel Tasman for us yesterday, but perhaps he can make amends here on Caledonia Road. This filly is drawn wide but she will likely be dropped out the back and produced late on. She ran a good race under patient tactics last time when chasing home Separationofpowers in a Grade 1 and with that horse unlikely to get an easy time up front I think Caledonia Road could reverse that form and at nice odds she is the each way suggestion.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: CALEDONIA ROAD E/W @ 18/1

Washington DC will enjoy the firm ground at Del Mar.

 19.37 TURF SPRINT

The fact that previous winner Mongolian Saturday can be backed at 66/1 shows that this is a deep race and the Europeans hold a strong hand. Flying filly Lady Aurelia is the short priced favourite and if she is at her brilliant best she will be hard to beat, particularly as she carries less weight than all of her rivals. Marsha is the shortest of the British and Irish challengers, but at a much bigger price Washington DC is of interest on the forecast firm ground.

This son of Zoffany has yet to win at the highest level in ten attempts but the fact that O’Brien has persisted with him suggests that he believes the 4yo is capable. He won impressively in a Group 3 at the Curragh the last time he ran on good to firm and he had excuses the last twice. He is far from reliable and he needs everything to go right, but if things fall into place he could be dangerous and a small e/w bet at 25/1 is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: WASHINGTON DC E/W @ 25/1

Unique Bella will be hard to beat.

20.14 FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

This race is all about Unique Bella, and if she repeats the form of her penultimate start when easily beating Abel Tasman then she will be very hard to beat. Our old pal Mike Smith will have to work his magic from stall 11 and she will need to be fast from the gates. If she gets away well and doesn’t get trapped wide it will take a very good one to beat her.

Her trainer Jerry Hollendorfer had a nice winner with Battle Of Midway here yesterday so there are no worries regarding the form of his horses. Smith has a good record in the race, winning it twice, including last year on Finest City. The fact that he has abandoned that mare for Unique Bella says a lot and at odds of 2/1 she is a confident selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: UNIQUE BELLA @ 2/1 WIN

Senga could go well for France.

21.00 FILLY AND MARE TURF

This race has proved to be a happy hunting ground for European horses and Michael Stoute is the joint leading trainer with 3 wins. He teamed up with Frankie Dettori last year with Queen’s Trust to win it and they are back to try and repeat the dose this year. She ran a cracker her only run on quick ground this season when 2L behind Highland Reel and she can be forgiven her recent runs on ground softer than ideal. With firm ground forecast at Del Mar she should run a good race at 9/1.

However, at a slightly bigger price I think Senga could run a big race for Pascal Bary and Stephane Pasquier. This French raider loves quick ground and her only defeat since debut on good or better came behind Wuheida over a mile. She was finishing fast that day so the extra furlong here should enable her to reverse that form. She is nicely drawn in stall 2 and at odds of 12/1 I think she has outstanding each way claims.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SENGA E/W @ 12/1 NAP

Mind Your Biscuits has a good e/w chance.

21.37 DIRT SPRINT

Bob Baffert is the leading trainer in this race with 5 wins and he took it last year with Defrong. He is back with the now 4yo to defend his crown and from a plum draw in stall 2 he will be hard to peg back if fast from the gates.

For each way purposes perhaps Mind Your Biscuits can give his backers a run for their money. He is versatile tactically, he is a former Grade 1 winner and he wasn’t beaten far by Defrong in this last year. The quicker they go early the better for this fast finisher and a small each way bet is advised at 8/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MIND YOUR BISCUITS E/W @ 8/1

 

Lancaster Bomber could go one better than last year.

22.19 TURF MILE

European trainers have fared well in this race, especially Freddy Head who has the most wins with three. However, the Americans have dominated in recent years and no European trainer has scored since super mare Goldikova back in 2010. Aidan O’Brien has surprisingly never won this race but Lancaster Bomber could be the one to break his duck.

This 3yo son of War Front has won just 1 of his 13 career starts but he has run some cracking races in defeat at the highest level. The key to him, like so many of War Front’s progeny, is rattling quick ground and he will get his optimum conditions at Del Mar. He was runner up in the Juvenile Turf last year on firm, he ran well at Woodbine on his penultimate start on similar ground and at odds of 12/1 I think he holds very solid each way claims.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: LANCASTER BOMBER E/W @ 12/1

 

Bolt D'Oro looks a worthy favourite.

22.58 JUVENILE DIRT

Aidan O’Brien and Mick Kinane teamed up to win this race many moons ago with Johannesburg and O’Brien is back to try and repeat the dose with US Navy Flag. O’Brien won the Juvenile Turf on Friday night with Mendelssohn and that was a race that many pundits thought would be ideal for this fella. It will be the first time the son of War Front has ever encountered dirt, his Galileo dam never tried it either and on balance I think that he is skinny enough at 9/1 as he has a lot to prove.

Although he is drawn wide the current favourite Bolt D’Oro looks very hard to oppose here. He is unbeaten in three starts, including two here, and his last two wins have come at the highest level. He absolutely destroyed them last time on his first run at tonight’s trip at Santa Anita, he is versatile tactically and it is hard to pick holes in this son of Medagalia d’Oro. He may only be 5/4 but he should give favourite backers something to shout about.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BOLT D’ORO @ 5/4 NB

Andre Fabre is looking for his 3rd win in this race.

23.37 BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

This 12f race has been dominated by the European’s in recent years and they have been successful 17 times in total. That man Aidan O’Brien has won it six times and he will be looking to complete a hat trick having won it for the past two years with Highland Reel in 2016 and Found in 2015. Highland Reel is a short order to repeat the dose but O’Brien has another couple of entries and both Cliffs Of Moher and especially Seventh Heaven will enjoy the firm ground.

Andre Fabre has won this race twice and he has an interesting contender in Talismanic this year. This 4yo son of Medaglia d’Oro has yet to score at the highest level but he will enjoy the quick ground and he is 2/3 over 12f on good. He was a good 3rd in the Group 2 Prix Foy last time out, he will appreciate the return to a faster surface and from the plum draw in stall 1 he could give each way backers a good run for their money at 20/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TALISMANIC E/W @ 20/1

 

Collected looks a solid each way bet.

00.35 CLASSIC

In the early hours of Sunday morning 11 horses will go to post for the final race of the Breeders’ Cup meeting. Arrogate comes into the race as the 5/2 favourite but his air of invincibility is gone after meeting defeat on his last two runs. It is perhaps too soon to write him off and he has landed a great draw in stall 1.

The 7/1 about Collected looks a big price seeing as he beat Arrogate last time out over this course and distance and though he is drawn wide he is usually fairly quick from the gates so he should be able to get a prominent racing position. I really liked the way he galloped all the way to the line last time and I think he looks a rock solid each way bet with an excellent chance of winning.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: COLLECTED E/W @ 7/1