Agent Can Benefit From Step Up In Trip At Leopardstown

Colwinston and Urbanist ran very well on St Stephens’ day, but unfortunately not well enough to reward each way support. Both horses tried their best so I have no complaints on that front, but unfortunately Colwinston could only manage 4th, while Urbanist was 6th. I still believe that both horses will win races at some stage and they are ones to keep in your tracker for when the better ground comes in the Spring.

 

Tom Gibney is a shrewd operator.

Regular readers will remember me tipping up today’s selection last time out at Fairyhouse at 66/1 and he ran an absolute stormer in 5th. He stayed on strongly close to home in that 2 mile race, and upped in trip to 20f I think Agent Boru can go very close on ground that will suit at Leopardstown. Tom Gibney’s son of Brian Boru is yet to win under rules, but he has plenty of placed form in the book and he produced a career best last time out.

If there was an extra furlong at Fairyhouse last time I think he would have won going away. He got squeezed out and slightly outpaced at a crucial time, but when Moore switched him he absolutely flew home and he could have easily got 2nd at the very least. That was just his 2nd start of the season too, so he is going to strip even fitter now.

Agent Boru was raised just a pound for that excellent effort, and with Patrick Corbett claiming 3lb he is effectively running off 2lb lower now. Tom Gibney has gone a while without a winner but he only has a small string and Play The Game ran a nice race for him earlier this week. I think Agent Boru is massively overpriced at odds of 25/1 and he has to be worth chancing each way in a wide open race.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.05 LEOPARDSTOWN-AGENT BORU E/W @ 20/1

St Stephens’ Day Selections

One of the highlights of the national hunt season every year is St Stephens’ Day (or Boxing Day for UK readers) and this year the racing looks as good as ever. The King George is the big race of the day and I have put a selection up for that contest, as well as two other tips, for Mybettingbonus. Click here to read them. I also fancy a couple at massive prices at Down Royal and I will outline why below.
 

Patrick Corbett comes back in for the ride on Urbanist. 

The first one I like the look of goes in the 2 mile maiden hurdle at 14.15 and I think Colwinston could outrun his price for Suzy Barkley and Adam Short. This 7yo son of Mustameet has yet to taste victory after 12 starts under rules, but he has run some decent races in defeat and this race is likely to have been his target for some time. Some of his best form has come here in bumpers and he ran well over timber here too last March.

He chased home lucky winner Geneva Barracks here that day and while he was some way behind the winner he did keep on well enough for 2nd (16.5f yld/sft) in a first time tongue tie. He followed that up with another solid effort at Fairyhouse (16f gd/yld) with no tongue tie, finishing 4th behind Tudor City. His overall form figures at Down Royal read 3525, his trainer has trained more winners there than at any other track and with the tongue tie reapplied for the first time since his 2nd here he looks worth chancing each way at 33/1.

In the following race, a 2 mile handicap hurdle, I think Urbanist could bounce back with a good run after a woeful effort last time out. I tipped him up for that race at Thurles but he was always in rear and wide and I am going to put a line through that effort and give him another chance. He ran a lot better previously at Fairyhouse and the form of that run has worked out well.

The winner of that race, Roja Dove, went on to win off 9lb higher next time out and she was 12L in front of Urbanist at Fairyhouse. The 4th home Glenabo Bridge was 5L in front of the selection and he went on to be 2nd on his next start before winning at Navan. The 5th home, Killahara Castle was just over 3L ahead of Urbanist and she went on to spring a massive shock in a Listed race on her last start at 200/1.

Urbanist is now 3lb lower and it is interesting that the usual hood is discarded and the cheekpieces go on for the first time. Patrick Corbett replaces Robbie Colgan in the plate and he was on board for that good Fairyhouse run. He has a good record overall when riding for Shane Nolan, winning three races and placing 7 times from just 21 rides. Nolan’s record at Down Royal is another cause for optimism.

The Clane based handler has a good record with his raiders up North, sending out two winners and 4 placed horses from just 12 runners for a frame hitting strike rate of 50%. Urbanist is bred to be a lot better than his current mark of 80, being by Black Sam Bellamy and out of a half sister to the very classy Commanche Court. He races off a feather weight here which should be a big help on the forecast testing ground and at odds of 33/1 he is worth chancing each way. A cheeky little each way double might be worth doing on them too. 

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: 14.15 DOWN ROYAL-COLWINSTON E/W @ 33/1

                                              14.50 DOWN ROYAL-URBANIST E/W @ 33/1

Fresh Fergall Worth A Flutter At A Fancy Price At Ascot

Last weekend’s blog selection Kauto Grand Mogol ran a bitterly disappointing race. Liz Doyle’s half brother to the mighty Kauto Star was always trapped wide and at Navan that approach rarely ends well. It was a similar sort of ride to the one given to Vanellope the previous week. That is two weeks in a row I have tipped up non triers, but when you are looking for big priced winners it is an unavoidable occupational hazard.

 

Fergall And Brain Power In The Fog Here Last Season.

Tomorrow I am taking a chance on one at a big price at Ascot, and I think Fergall looks overpriced back at a track he has never run a poor race at. Jimmy Mullins’ 10yo son of Norwich hasn’t won since scoring on the all weather at Lingfield back in February 2015. His last jumps victory came off 136 back in April 2014 (16f gd sft) and he is only 4lb higher here.

While it is a long time since Fergall last scored over timber, he showed last season that plenty of ability still remains. He was a very good 3rd in this contest behind Brain Power off 136 and that was his third good run at Ascot from three starts. He chased home Many Clouds on his first visit in a maiden hurdle, and he was only beaten a length in 4th by Sternrubin in a Listed handicap hurdle off 136 in October last year. He also ran well in the Galway Hurdle on his last start back in August.

It may be off-putting to some that Fergall is having first run after 142 days off the track but his lack of a recent run is more of a positive. He has a fine record when fresh and he also gets on well with 5lb claimer Kevin Jones. His trainer has reported him to be in good spirits, saying: "Fergall loves this race. He comes there every year and always runs a big race. He's been working well and we'd be hopeful of a good run." I think there are enough positives to justify a small e/w bet, and while winning might be a tough task a place is a real possibility

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.35 ASCOT-FERGALL E/W @ 28/1 (5 PLACES SKYBET)

Flare Can Burn Brightly At Leopardstown

The Festive Season is fast approaching and there is a mouth-watering menu of racing action for punters to feast on. There will be Grade 1s galore on both sides of the pond and I can’t wait for it all to begin. Earlier this week I backed one at a monster price ante-post for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, and I think Flaxen Flare looks a fascinating contender for Gordon Elliott.

 

Flaxen Flare has a good record in big fields and at Leopardstown. 

This 8yo son of Windsor Knot has been lightly campaigned since breaking his chasing maiden at Down Royal back in 2015 (20f gd/yld). He missed all of 2016 and wasn’t seen again until finishing 3rd on bottomless ground in a hurdle race at Cork (16f). He returned to chasing on his next start at Tramore (21f yld) and he looked by far the most likely winner when making a mistake at the 2nd last and unseating Jack Kennedy.

Flaxen Flare returned to the smaller obstacles for his next and final start of the season at Killarney (20f sft). Jack Kennedy was on board again and his run of bad luck aboard this fella continued as he dropped his whip and was edged out by a nose in a thrilling finish by Plinth. Those two runs proved that this former Cheltenham Festival winner still retained plenty of ability, and connections were likely full of optimism as he headed off on his summer holidays.

He made a very satisfactory return to action behind crack mares Apple’s Jade and Jer’s Girl at Navan back in November (20f hvy), beaten 11L for the win but staying on nicely for 3rd 9L behind Jer’s Girl and 2L ahead of Monksland. He was set an impossible task on his return to chasing last time out, taking on the mighty Min, but he jumped well bar one mistake five out and he was allowed to finish in his own time for 2nd.

The handicapper has handed Flaxen Flare a mark of 138 for Leopardstown and on his best handicap hurdle form he should be well capable of making an impact off that rating. He was only beaten 7L off 149 in the Vincent O’Brien handicap hurdle at Cheltenham back in 2014, and he was also narrowly beaten by Gilgamboa in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown off 142 in January of the same year.

So, what are my reasons for fancying Flaxen Flare in a race like this? Firstly, I think the fact that Elliott has campaigned him so lightly over fences suggests that he has been minding his handicap mark. Also, he won his maiden hurdle at the Xmas meeting at Leopardstown all the way back in 2012 and his form figures at the track over hurdles read 152, with the 5th coming in a Grade 1 behind the ill fated Our Conor.

Another cause for optimism regarding Flaxen Flare’s chances in this race is his stellar record in big fields. In hurdle races with 17 runners or more he has form figures of 1124325, and that includes a win at the Cheltenham festival. Flaxen Flare evidently enjoys races that are run at an honest pace, and he looks sure to get that in this contest.

The biggest worry for him is that this will be his first start at beyond 21f, and if the ground comes up bottomless that could be an issue. However, his last two wins have come at 20f and 20.5f and he wasn’t showing any signs of stopping when unshipping Jack Kennedy over 21f at Tramore. If his stamina does hold out I think he could be a real dark horse in this race, and at odds of 40/1 he looks worth chancing each way ante-post.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 27TH DEC LEOPARDSTOWN 15.00-FLAXEN FLARE E/W @ 40/1

Kauto Worth One More Chance At Navan

There is no two ways about it, Buyer Beware was very disappointing. The omens weren’t good as he drifted like a barge out to 40/1 at one point, and eventually sent off at 33s he made no impact. In fairness to him he jumped and travelled well to a point, but as they turned for home the tank emptied quickly and perhaps he needs a bit more help from the handicapper.

 

Kauto Grand Mogol will appreciate the drop in trip at Navan.

Regular readers will remember me tipping up tomorrow’s fancy on his return to action after a long spell on the sidelines at Punchestown back in October. Kauto Grand Mogol could only manage 10th that day (20f yld/sft) but he did shape as though he was in dire need off the run and he ran a much better race than the distance beaten suggests. He was bang there at the second last but he made a mistake and tiredness got the better of him in the closing stages.

He was backed at fancy prices on his next start upped in trip to 3 miles at Clonmel, so he must have come out of his comeback run well. Unfortunately, the trip proved to be a bit too far for him and he faded late on after travelling menacingly into the race as they approached the fourth last. He ended up 6th, beaten over 20L, but he demonstrated that he still has ability and I think he could produce a big run dropped back to 20f at Navan.

Given the length of time he was missing he is likely to have benefitted massively for his first two runs back. As an added bonus the handicapper has been very generous, dropping him 10lb to a mark of 125. This half brother to Kauto Star was an excellent 4th in a Martin Pipe Hurdle back in 2014 off 135, so he looks dangerously well handicapped at the moment off 10lb lower.

Liz Doyle has booked Donagh Meyler for the ride and he has an excellent strike rate when riding for Doyle. From 22 rides he has 5 wins and 6 2nds, a frame hitting strike rate of 50% and a win strike rate of 28%. The bottomless ground at Navan shouldn’t pose any problems either as this lad won his bumper and novice hurdle easily on soft/heavy ground. I think Kauto Grand Mogol looks a massive price at 20/1 and hopefully he gives e/w backers a good run for their money.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.20 NAVAN-KAUTO GRAND MOGOL E/W @ 20/1

Be Wary Of Buyer At Doncaster

I was bitterly disappointed by Floresco earlier this week as I was extremely confident of a bold showing. Everything looked right for him to go well and the money came, but Floresco had other ideas. He was up there from the get go but half a mile from home the writing was on the wall and he faded badly in the closing stages. Usually I have an excuse for when one of my selections runs poorly, but this time I am stumped. It would be no surprise were he to bounce back to form at some stage as he is definitely a well handicapped animal.
 

Floresco ran a stinker. 

Tomorrow all eyes will be on Cheltenham and I have posted a trio of tips for Mybettingbonus (click here to see them). For my blog selection I fancy one at a big price at Doncaster, and I think Buyer Beware looks an interesting runner in the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 12.00. This former Gordon Elliott inmate is now trained by Pat Holmes, and on some of his form for the Irish trainer he looks more than feasibly handicapped off a mark of 115. The 5yo son of Big Bad Bob will relish the good ground at Donny and he should strip fitter for his run last time out.

He has raced mainly on the level since joining Pat Holmes and he was below par in that sphere during the summer. However, he ran a nice race on his return from a 3 month break at Musselburgh back hurdling last month off a mark of 117. I liked how he jumped that day and though he ended up in 6th, beaten just over 8L, it was a very decent effort. The handicapper has dropped him 2lb to 115 after that outing and he should be capable of being competitive off that rating.

Buyer Beware is actually fairly unexposed in handicap company over timber, his run at Musselburgh being just his second run. Some of his novice hurdle form suggests that a mark of 115 should be well within his grasp. He was only a length behind a horse called Hassle at Cartmel last summer in receipt of a pound and that horse won a Listed handicap hurdle off 125 on his next start. He had previously finished 5L in front of Jaime Sommers at Gowran, conceding 7lb, and he won a handicap off 119 and is now rated 130.

If Buyer Beware can get back to the level of those two runs he will be a big danger in this race. John Kington rides and his 3lb claim could prove to be useful. Kington has a good record when riding for Pat Holmes, riding 4 winners and 18 top 4 finishers from 80 rides. He got to know Buyer Beware last time out at Musselburgh and with trip and ground ideal I think he has an excellent chance of hitting the frame on him tomorrow. At odds of 25/1 Buyer Beware looks worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 12.00 DONCASTER-BUYER BEWARE E/W @ 25/1

Woollacott’s Good Run To Continue At Taunton

Unfortunately Vanellope wasn’t there to win at Navan on Saturday if the ride she was given was anything to go by. Harley Dunne had her posted widest of all throughout and she must have covered at least 3 miles in the 2m 6f contest. She travelled and jumped extremely well for a long way, but it was no surprise to see her fade in the closing stages as the wide course she charted took its toll. I remain convinced that this mare has races in her off her current rating and there will be other days for her.

Floresco hails from a yard in flying form.

Tomorrow I like the look of one at a nice price at Taunton, and I think Floresco looks massively overpriced in the 19f handicap hurdle at 14.10. Richard Woollacott is a trainer that regular readers of the blog will be familiar with, and he hit the headlines after a wonderful win by Beer Goggles a couple of weeks ago. He had another winner last week with Millanisi Boy so clearly he has his string in stupendous form.


Floresco is a horse I have put up before and he looks too big at odds of 20/1 at Taunton tomorrow. This 7yo son of Santiago hasn’t won since taking an 18.5f handicap at Newton Abbott back in May 2016 off 123. He made an ordinary return to action at Ludlow back in October when a well beaten 4th in a handicap chase. He returns to hurdles off a 2lb lower mark than for his last win, and he has a good record at this track.

He has had three runs at Taunton with form figures of 322. His most recent start here came back in November 2015 over an inadequate trip of 2 miles off 114 and he ran a lovely race to be 2nd. He has plenty of form off higher marks too, such as his excellent 4th in a strong Cheltenham handicap this time last year off 130. His form nosedived after that excellent run but every cloud has a silver lining and the handicapper has given him a real chance now.

His yard is flying and the booking of Daryl Jacob is a big positive too. He has won on him before and he has a fine record when riding for Woollacott. He has 16 wins and 45 top 4 finishes from 125 rides and Jacob also does very well at Taunton (37 wins/83 top 4 finishes from 239 rides). With trip, track and ground to suit I think Floresco has every chance of hitting the frame at Taunton and at odds of 20/1 he looks well worth chancing each way.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.10 TAUNTON-FLORESCO E/W @ 20/1 

Van Can Make Presence Felt On Handicap Debut At Navan

Unfortunately, Phobiaphiliac was a non runner earlier today, but looking on the bright side at least it wasn’t a loser! The best of tomorrow’s action comes from across the Irish sea at Aintree and Sandown and I have put up a trio of tips for the Becher, Grand Sefton and Tingle Creek for Mybettingbonus (click here to see them). For my blog tip this Saturday I am sticking to home turf, and I like the look of a mare at a big price at Navan.

Peter Croke's charge should appreciate the step up to 2m 6f.

Regular readers of the blog might remember me tipping up Vanellope at a massive price in a maiden back in October at Punchestown and she ran an absolute cracker to finish 5th behind the very talented subsequent Listed winner Cracking Smart. She was bang there until running out of steam in the closing stages but it was a fine effort in a hot race.

She was only 12L behind another smart sort in Court Artist on her seasonal reappearance at Ballinrobe, and considering she likely would have needed the outing badly it was a super run. She has been handed an opening mark of 106 by the handicapper and on the form of her second hurdle run she should be capable of making an impact off that rating.


Off You Go finished 10L behind Vanellope at Punchestown and he has since finished 3rd on his handicap debut off 105. That would suggest that 106 is more than fair for the selection and with Harley Dunne’s claim she is effectively running off 101. Another cause for optimism is the step up in distance to 22f as this daughter of Presenting is bred to relish that sort of trip.

Her sire is known as a stamina influence, producing stayers like Denman, War Of Attrition and First Lieutenant. Her half brother Irish Buccaneer won at 21f and her dam Supreme Serenade was also a multiple winner at up to 2m 6f. She is a full sister to Grade 3 winning hurdler Supreme Prince and he won at up to 2m 5f. So, as can be seen from the above, 2m 6f should be ideal if her pedigree is anything to go by.

Vanellope’s sole win came in a heavy ground 20f bumper at Wexford where she beat Burren Life by 5L. She could have won by a lot more only for her jockey easing her in the closing stages once the race was in the bag. Burren Life has since finished 3rd in a Listed race, won maiden and novice hurdles and is now rated 130. If Vanellope can reproduce that form at Navan she should go very close at odds of 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.25 NAVAN-VANELLOPE E/W @ 25/1

Don’t Be Afraid To Back Phobia At Sandown

We had a decent day at Fairyhouse last Sunday with our 12/1 e/w NAP Early Doors placing behind the very promising Mengli Khan. The front two pulled a long way clear of the remainder in what looked a decent race and both horses could be worth keeping an eye on with Cheltenham in mind. Agent Boru also ran a mighty race for us at 66/1, getting squeezed out between the last two hurdles but keeping on strongly down the outer to get back up for 5th. That was just his second handicap start and he is a horse with a lot of potential.

Matt Griffiths and Nicky Martin have forged a good partnership.

Tomorrow I like the look of one at a big price at Sandown and I think Phobiaphiliac could outrun his odds for Nicky Martin and Matt Griffiths. This former Nicky Henderson inmate ran a lovely race on his chase debut for his new yard behind Yanworth and Sternrubin at Exeter (17.5f gd/sft), jumping well but tiring late having pulled very hard early on. He was always in rear on his handicap chase debut at Ludlow last time (16f gd) but he was never likely to be suited by the drop back in trip in that hot 0-135 contest.


The handicapper has cut him 5lb to 123 after that poor run and Phobiaphiliac is now able to drop into a 0-125 race. This is nowhere near as strong a contest as his last race at Ludlow and he will also be suited by the step back up in trip to 20f. His two hurdle wins for Nicky Henderson came at 20.5f in Southwell maiden (won by 18L) and by 9L in a Lingfield Novice, both on good ground.


He is rated 132 over timber so he looks feasibly treated off 123 over fences. His trainer, Nicky Martin, is on course to have his best season so far since moving into the training ranks and he has teamed up to good effect with Matt Griffiths. He has ridden 3 winners and had 9 top 4 finishes from just 20 rides for Martin this season. I have always believed that Matt Griffiths is a top quality jockey and hopefully he proves me right by hitting the frame on Phobiaphiliac at odds of 25/1.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.55 SANDOWN-PHOBIAPHILIAC E/W @ 25/1

Fairyhouse Winter Festival Sunday Preview

Ollie Vaar ran a nice race for us earlier, but unfortunately he finished 4th and out of the money. He was a lot more clued up than on debut and I thought he looked booked for 3rd as they approached the second last. However, he was just done for toe by the King horse and he faded in the final furlong. He is definitely a horse to keep an eye on, and he could be worth backing if upped in trip when sent handicapping. Sunday sees the best jumps card of the year so far taking place at Fairyhouse, and you can read my thoughts below.

Dinaria Des Obeaux gets a huge amount of weight from her rivals.

RACE 1

A Grade 3 2 mile Juvenile Hurdle gets the action started at Fairyhouse and at first glance this looks a match between Espoir D’Allen for JP McManus and Gavin Cromwell and Mitchouka for Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott. The former is unbeaten in two hurdle starts and he won both in the manner of a very talented horse. Mitchouka won his last two by a combined total of 25L and he is another horse with bags of potential.

However, the bookies haven’t missed either of those and at a much bigger price perhaps Khudha can play the role of party pooper. This son of Helmet was last seen hacking up in a soft ground 12f handicap on the level at the Curragh for Johnny Murtagh. That run induced Barry Connell into getting the chequebook out and he is an interesting recruit to hurdles. If he takes to the game he could go well and at odds of 20/1 he is suggested as a value alternative to the top two in the market.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: KHUDHA E/W @ 20/1

RACE 2

The first of three Grade 1s on Sunday at Fairyhouse is the Royal Bond Novice hurdle and a small but select field of seven go to post. Mengli Khan has been put in as favourite at 13/8 after his impressive Grade 3 win at Navan last time out. However, he has a lot more on his plate here and JP McManus holds a strong hand with three runners that all look to hold realistic chances.

Barry Geraghty has opted for La Richebourg and while he might be the one to be on come March and April, the soft ground is an unknown for him and he might not be seen to best effect. Red Jack looks a decent price at 8/1 but the form of his hurdle wins looks suspect. He holds La Richebourg on their meeting in a soft ground bumper at Naas last season.

The biggest priced horse of the McManus trio is Early Doors and at odds of 12/1 it could pay to side with him. Joseph O’Brien’s son of Soldier Of Fortune is unbeaten in two starts over timber and he took the scalp of Meri Devie in a Grade 3 at Naas last time. He is guaranteed to go on the ground, Mark Walsh is riding out of his skin and at odds of 12/1 I think he is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: EARLY DOORS E/W @ 12/1 NAP

RACE 3

I have tipped up a horse for this Grade 1 for Mybettingbonus and you can find out my fancy by clicking here.

RACE 4

A maximum field of 20 horses will go to post in this 2 mile Grade A handicap and it looks a perilous puzzle to solve. Some classy types take their chances, including the likes of Ivanovich Gorbatov, Ted Veale and Meri Devie. Ben Dundee is the 4/1 favourite after his impressive win last time but he has been raised 10lb for that victory and there is better value to be found elsewhere. At an absolutely monstrous price perhaps Agent Boru can go well from the foot of the weights for local trainer Tom Gibney.

This son of Brian Boru has yet to get his head in front in 5 maiden hurdle runs and he was well beaten on his handicap bow at Killarney. However, he probably wasn’t suited by the good ground that day and he has some decent form to his name on easy ground in maidens. He was 4th on his seasonal comeback here last month (20f sft) and he should be suited by a fast run race at 16f. Stakes should be kept small, but I think Agent Boru could outrun his odds of 66/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: AGENT BORU E/W @ 66/1

RACE 5

The last of the Grade 1s on Sunday is the Drinmore Novice Chase, a 20f contest that has attracted a field of 6 horses. Death Duty is a warm order to follow up his impressive win in a Grade 3 at Punchestown last time and if he is in the same mood here he will be hard to beat. Elliott also runs 4yo filly Dinaria Des Obeaux and she is receiving a huge amount of weight from her male rivals. She will be carrying over a stone less than both Death Duty and Rathvinden and that could be a huge positive on such testing ground.

This Grade 3 hurdle winner has looked a natural since going chasing and she has won both her starts. She absolutely hosed up in a heavy ground Listed contest last time and she previously lowered the colours of the highly rated La Martalin. Trip, ground and track are all perfect for this fabulous filly and at odds of 4/1 she could give Death Duty plenty to think about.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DINARIA DES OBEAUX @ 4/1

RACE 6

16 horses go to post in this Grade B 3m 5f handicap chase and, as ever in races of this type, small stakes at big odds is the approach to take. Stamina and an ability to handle bad ground are the credentials that will be needed to win a race like this and one horse that ticks both those boxes is Undressed. Michael Hourigan’s 9yo son of Lost World bounced back to form with a good 3rd in the Cork National last time (28f sft) and judging by how he finished that race he should be suited by the extra furlong here.

He had generally been a consistent sort over fences but he was pulled up three times in a row after his last win at Limerick in a Novice Chase (22f hvy) last December. He could only manage 9th in this race last season off a mark of 116 when sent off at just 5/1 but the good to yielding ground was not to his liking. He is 7lb higher now, but he showed definite signs of a revival last time despite making some jumping errors and if he can cut those mistakes out he could run a big race at tasty odds.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: UNDRESSED E/W @ 28/1 NB

Ollie Could Outrun Odds At Doncaster

Unfortunately, it wasn’t Urbanist’s day earlier this week and he was never sighted. He started in rear and stayed there, never even looking like landing a blow. I still believe he is a horse with more ability than he is showing and perhaps he needs further and better ground to be seen at his best. Tomorrow I am chancing one at a big price at Doncaster, and I think Ollie Vaar could sneak a place in the 2 mile Novices’ Hurdle that opens the card at 12.05.

 

Ollie Vaar Could Go Well For Richard Price.

This 5yo son of Sulamani showed nothing in a pair of point to points on good ground, pulled up on debut and then falling when beaten next time. He moved from Robert Llewellyn to Richard Price after that second run and he made his rules debut over timber at Chepstow a month ago (16f soft). He was green as grass throughout that race, reluctant to start and putting in one or two hairy jumps.

However, it looked to me as though he had an engine and he did very well to come home in 5th, beaten a long way for the win but only 3L behind the 4th, The Crazed Moon. That mare ran well to finish 2nd in a maiden next time out, while the 8th home, 7L behind Olli Vaar, also finished 2nd in a handicap off 100 on his next start. The last placed finisher, Pointed And Sharp, won a maiden at 40/1 on his next outing so the form looks pretty decent.

Given that a lot of the runners in that race had previous experience under rules I think it was an excellent debut. Price has given him plenty of time to recover from his exertions and he should be a lot more streetwise now. The presence of Irish Prophecy and Kalashnikov in the race should ensure that they go a good clip and that should suit Ollie Vaar.

Now, the top two in the market will undoubtedly be hard to beat as they are both very well regarded by their respective connections. However, 3rd place looks up for grabs and I think the form of Ollie Vaar’s last race is better than the bumper that 6/1 shot Deyrann De Carjac ran in last time. Ollie Vaar is over five times the price of the King horse and at 33/1 I think he is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 12.05 DONCASTER-OLLIE VAAR E/W @ 33/1