Last
weekend’s blog selection Kauto Grand Mogol ran a bitterly disappointing race.
Liz Doyle’s half brother to the mighty Kauto Star was always trapped wide and
at Navan that approach rarely ends well. It was a similar sort of ride to the
one given to Vanellope the previous week. That is two weeks in a row I have tipped
up non triers, but when you are looking for big priced winners it is an unavoidable
occupational hazard.
Tomorrow
I am taking a chance on one at a big price at Ascot, and I think Fergall looks
overpriced back at a track he has never run a poor race at. Jimmy Mullins’ 10yo
son of Norwich hasn’t won since scoring on the all weather at Lingfield back in
February 2015. His last jumps victory came off 136 back in April 2014 (16f gd
sft) and he is only 4lb higher here.
While it
is a long time since Fergall last scored over timber, he showed last season
that plenty of ability still remains. He was a very good 3rd in this contest
behind Brain Power off 136 and that was his third good run at Ascot from three
starts. He chased home Many Clouds on his first visit in a maiden hurdle, and
he was only beaten a length in 4th by Sternrubin in a Listed handicap hurdle
off 136 in October last year. He also ran well in the Galway Hurdle on his last start back in August.
It may be
off-putting to some that Fergall is having first run after 142 days off the
track but his lack of a recent run is more of a positive. He has a fine record
when fresh and he also gets on well with 5lb claimer Kevin Jones. His trainer
has reported him to be in good spirits, saying: "Fergall loves this race. He comes there
every year and always runs a big race. He's been working well and we'd be
hopeful of a good run." I think there are enough positives to justify a
small e/w bet, and while winning might be a tough task a place is a real possibility
STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.35 ASCOT-FERGALL
E/W @ 28/1 (5 PLACES SKYBET)
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