Race 1
The opening race on Derby Day at Epsom is a 10f handicap that has attracted a field of 11 horses. With drying conditions the ground could be pretty tacky and that makes finding winners that bit more difficult. Not many horses will handle the likely gluey ground at Epsom, but one horse that is already proven on similar ground is George for Sylvester Kirk and Hollie Doyle. This 3yo son of Dragon Pulse remains a maiden after eight career starts, but he has produced some of his best form on ground with soft in the description.
He was a fine second at this track last season off a mark of 81 (7f hvy) and he followed that up with a fine effort at Brighton in a Novice race (8f gd/sft). He is racing off just 2lb higher than for his 2nd here last season and he gets his optimum conditions for the first time this season. Salouen ran a cracker for Sylvester Kirk in the Coronation Cup, and hopefully George repeats the trick at odds of 14/1 here. He is the each way selection despite being a couple of pounds out of the weights.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: GEORGE E/W @ 14/1
Race 2
The Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes for fillies and mares is the second race of the day at Epsom and the one I like here is Wilamina down in class for Martyn Meade and Frankie Dettori. This likeable mare chased home a top class horse in Wuheida last time out and while that run was on good to firm at Newmarket, she handles an ease in the ground too.
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| Wilamina drops in grade after a fine effort last time. |
STEVOS’ SELECTION: WILAMINA @ 5/1
Race 3
The Diomed Stakes looks a very open renewal and to be honest, I struggled to find anything that looks particularly overpriced. True Valour could go well for Irish trainer Johnny Murtagh but I am going to sit this race out. No bet.
Race 4
The fourth race on the card at Epsom on Derby Day is the Dash and this is a real blink and you will miss it affair. The 5f course at Epsom is the fastest in the country and prominent racers usually fare well as it is very difficult to come from behind. Course form is a huge plus around here and though he is racing from a couple of pounds out of the weights, I think Bahamian Sunrise has the credentials to run a big race for John Gallagher and Paddy Mathers.
Bahamian Sunrise will carry a feather weight of just 8 stone off a mark of 83, just 4lb higher than he was for his narrow win here back in April (5f gd). He followed that up with a fine effort off 81 at Goodwood when beaten just under 3L in 3rd by Pettochside and he is 2lb better off with that rival today. Bahamian Sunrise acts on good to soft ground, he won on his only previous visit to the track and he has an okay draw in stall 13. If the first time visor sparks a bit of improvement he could go well for each way backers at odds of 25/1.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: BAHAMIAN SUNRISE E/W @ 25/1
Race 5
The Epsom Derby is a race where legends are made and Saxon Warrior will be looking to cement his place at the top table by following up on his fine 2000 Guineas win. He has long looked like the ideal type for this race, on paper and physically, and despite the drift I think he is most definitely the one to beat. If he turns up at 100% and puts his best hoof forward he will win.
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| Masar looks massively overpriced for the Derby. |
At a bigger price I think Masar is capable of delivering a big run for the connections of Oaks runner up Wild Illusion. This son of New Approach really impressed me with the manner of his Craven win, galloping powerfully all the way to the line. He left Roaring Lion trailing in his wake that day and he confirmed the form by beating that horse in the 2000 Guineas.
His run in the 2000 Guineas leaves him with under 2L to find with Saxon Warrior, and that rival wasn’t exactly pulling away at the finish. Just like the favourite Masar is bred to come into his own over middle distances and his dam is a grand daughter to a half sister to Derby winners Sea The Stars and Galileo. I think odds of 20/1 totally underestimate this colt’s chances and he looks the each way value in the 2018 Epsom Derby.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: SAXON WARRIOR WIN @ 10/11; MASAR E/W @ 20/1 NB
Race 6
The penultimate race on Derby Day is a 12f handicap and with a massive field of 19 horses declared, small stakes at tasty odds is the right approach to take. The one I like at a nice each way price is Andrew Balding’s son of Tagula, Twin Star. Formerly trained by Sheila Lavery in Ireland this fella caught the eye big style last time at Ascot when 5th in a race that wasn’t run to suit (12f gd/fm).
He stayed on well off what was a steady pace and he gave the impression that a stronger run race would suit him a lot better. He should get a stronger pace to aim at today and the more the ground dries out the better his chance will be. However, he ran a cracker on yielding at the Curragh in a Group 3 so good to soft should hold no fears for him. I think he could surprise with a big run and at odds of 20/1 he is worth chancing each way.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: TWIN STAR E/W @ 20/1 NAP
Race 7
The closing race on Derby Day is a very competitive looking 6f sprint and the one I like from a decent draw in stall 16 is Holiday Magic. He looks handicapped to run a massive race for in form trainer Mick Easterby and Hayley Turner. This son of Dark Angel remains a maiden on turf after 16 starts but the 7yo has run some big races in defeat, including when flying home for an unlucky 6th beaten just over 3L in this race last year off 94 on good ground.
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| Holiday Magic looks well handicapped on his run here last year. |
He returns for a repeat bid off a mark of 85, 9lb lower, and though the ground will be different he was beaten less than 2L off a mark of 94 at Haydock on soft last June. He is a frustrating sort to follow at times and he will need them to go hammer and tongs early. If they do, I can see Holiday Magic staying on strongly late in the day and at odds of 25/1 I think he is worth chancing each way.
STEVOS’ SELECTION: HOLIDAY MAGIC E/W @ 25/1
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