Epsom Oaks Day Preview And Tips

Race 1

A trappy enough 2yo Conditions race kicks off the card at Epsom on Oaks day and this looks a minefield. Rain during the week has softened the ground, and with the possibility of more heavy showers tomorrow it looks almost certain that there will be an ease in the ground. Only three of the eight runners have encountered similar conditions before, the favourite Marie’s Diamond, Usain Boat and the one I like at a nice each way price, Cotubanama.

This 2yo daughter of Heeraat scored on heavy ground at Salisbury for Mick Channon on her second start (5f) after making a promising debut on good at Newmarket. Her last run came in the Listed Marygate Stakes at York (5f gd/fm) and she was only 2.5L behind the winner. I think the ground could hold the key to this filly and if they go quick early hopefully she can pick up the pieces late on and reward each way support at odds of 9/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: COTUBANAMA E/W @ 9/1 NB

Race 2

Nine horses will go to post for this 8.5f handicap and only a couple can be ruled out with confidence. The one I like at a half decent price is last year’s runner up Mythical Madness for David O’Meara and James Doyle. This son of Dubawi has been kept busy on the all weather, going close twice from four runs before disappointing last time at York (8f gd/fm).
 

Mythical Madness looks handicapped to go well.

The cheekpieces worn last time are discarded and the visor that he wore when second here last year on good ground returns. He raced off a mark of 95 that day and he is 3lb lower off 92 today. He has yet to win on soft but his staying on effort over 7f on easy ground at Goodwood last season suggests he should handle it and at odds of 11/1 he is the e/w pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MYTHICAL MADNESS E/W @ 11/1

Race 3

Cracksman will love the ground, he is by far the highest rated horse in the field and he showed all the old ability remained when hosing up at Longchamp last time. He is the one to beat and I think he can add the Coronation Cup to his ever growing list of Group 1 victories. He is just 1/3 though and with only six runners in the race I won’t be having a bet.

Race 4

The fourth race on the card at Epsom on Oaks Day is a 10f handicap with a field of 11 horses going to post. Dual easy ground course and distance winner Ajman King is understandably a short price to complete the four timer, but he will need to continue his progression off a career high mark of 98. However, one that could go well at a much bigger price is Zzoro for Amanda Perrett and Hayley Turner.

This 5yo son of Manduro has run well on three of his four starts this season, including a fine effort on soft ground on his seasonal reappearance over 10f at Doncaster off 82. He was only beaten 0.5L on his penultimate start at Windsor off 81 (10f gd) but he failed to reproduce that form when beaten 6L over the same c&d last time. However, I think the return to soft ground could suit, and he has form figures of 2163 on genuine soft ground. He is a pound lower than for his last turf win and at odds of 33/1 he could surprise with a big run.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ZZORO E/W @ 33/1

Race 5

The feature race at Epsom on Friday is the Oaks and to be honest, it looks a fairly underwhelming renewal with some of the best fillies missing the race for various reasons. Guineas fourth Wild Illusion looks a worthy favourite, especially as the daughter of Dubawi is proven on soft. Her dam stayed all day too, so there should be no issues for her upped in trip to 12f.
 

Padraig Beggy won the Derby here last year.

Ballydoyle fire five bullets at the Oaks and Magic Wand is the choice of stable jockey Ryan Moore. However, she has been well beaten both starts on soft so underfoot conditions have to be a worry for her. In fact, only two of the Aidan O’Brien fillies have scored on soft ground, Bye Bye Baby and my each way selection Flattering.

Flattering is another daughter of Galileo and her dam is by Pivotal, so it was no surprise to see her break her maiden in commanding style by 10L on her sole start on soft ground at Cork (10f sft/hvy). She still looked a shade green that day, and it was a similar story when she chased home Perfect Clarity on her last outing at Lingfield (11.5f gd/fm).

I think she can turn the form around with that filly on soft ground and although she looks the least likely Ballydoyle winner on jockey bookings, plenty thought the same last year when Padraig Beggy got the leg up on Derby winner Wings Of Eagles. I think 12f on soft ground could be right up Flattering’s street and at odds of 25/1 she is the each way selection for the 2018 Epsom Oaks.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: FLATTERING E/W @ 25/1

Race 6

Only six horses have been declared for the Listed Surrey Stakes and nothing leaps off the page as being particularly overpriced. No bet.

Race 7

The final race on Epsom Oaks Day is a class 3 7f handicap and with 14 horses declared it is the biggest field of the day. I am sweet on one at a tasty price in this competitive looking contest and I think Swift Approval looks well overpriced on ground he will relish. This 6yo son of Approve loves to get on with things out in front and he will be racing off a mark of 88, 3lb below his last winning mark and 4lb below his highest winning mark.
 

Oisin Murphy has yet to finish out of the frame on Swift Approval.

He has had just two career starts on genuinely soft ground, and he won both (including a 7f hcap at Newmarket off 91). He admittedly ran a stinker on his only previous visit to Epsom but that was over 8.5f and he will be much better suited by today’s trip of 7f. Oisin Murphy has form figures of 3212 on Swift Approval and hopefully he can conjure another good run out of him at odds of 20/1 on Friday.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SWIFT APPROVAL @ 20/1 E/W NAP