Although you wouldn’t know it from the weather, the summer is finally upon us and the first classic of the season is run at Newmarket on the Rowley Mile on Saturday. Guineas weekend is one of the highlights of the flat campaign and this year’s 2000 Guineas looks wide open.
As per usual, Aidan O’Brien provides the market leader in Gustav Klimt at 5/2, a son of Galileo who has proved himself on all sorts of ground over 7f. However, it is hard to ignore that it was only a Listed Race on desperate ground that he won last time and this represents a huge step in class for this colt. At the odds I would prefer to look elsewhere.
 |
| Masar was mightily impressive over c&d last time. |
Next best is Masar at odds of 5/1, trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin, a son of New Approach who produced a stunning performance just a couple of weeks ago over course and distance, leaving the highly touted Roaring Lion trailing in his wake. That was a truly spectacular display on good ground and he covered the turf so easily with his massive stride.
He should encounter similar conditions on Saturday and with a repeat performance he will be a danger to all. However, he was granted a very easy lead that day and if he gets taken on for it early, which with Hey Gaman and U S Navy Flag in the field is a likely scenario, it is a long way home up that stiff Newmarket finish.
 |
| Saxon Warrior could improve for better ground. |
Saxon Warrior is another at a short enough price that impressed me last year. I was at Naas to see Quiet Reflection in action when he ran there last season and he was a mightily impressive specimen physically as a 2yo. He hasn’t got a bad pedigree either, by Deep Impact and out of Maybe, who herself was 3rd in the 1000 Guineas in 2012.
His sire was prolific at 10f all the way up to 16f, so stamina won’t be an issue and the quicker they go up front the more that it will suit Saxon Warrior. I think that he is going to improve on better ground than he has encountered so far too, as his three career wins (from three starts) have come on yielding, soft and good to soft. Deep Impact was at his best when the ground was like the road, and Maybe liked good ground too. I think he has serious claims.
However, one horse that has been completely overlooked by the market is U S Navy Flag. This son of War Front doesn’t have the profile of a usual Guineas winner, with 12 starts already under his belt. He progressed with every run though (bar his last two on unsuitable surfaces) and he hasn’t looked back since opening his account in a 6f Curragh maiden last July on good to yielding ground at 13/2 (the outsider of three O’Brien runners).
He followed that up with a fine effort in the Group 2 Arqana on the July course here behind Cardsharp (6f gd) and he again ran well in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh (6f gd/fm) when 4th behind Sioux Nation. He took a huge step forward when trouncing Landshark over 6f in a Group 3 on yielding, again at The Curragh and he followed that up with successive Group 1 wins here on the Rowley over 6f and then over 7f, when he took the scalp of Mendelssohn by over 2L.
 |
| U S Navy Flag looks well overpriced. |
He handled the dip very well on both occasions and he wasn’t stopping at the finish over 7f, giving the impression that another furlong should be well within his compass. His dam, Misty For Me, won the Irish 1000 Guineas, while his sister Roly Poly won the Group 1 Sun Chariot over the Rowley Mile so he is definitely bred for the job. He can be forgiven his last two runs (dirt/heavy ground) and with underfoot conditions to suit at Newmarket I think he is overpriced at 20/1. He represents good each way value at those odds.
So, who is the most likely winner? Well, I think Gustav Klimt has plenty to prove to justify his short price and others in the field have already achieved a lot more. There is lots of pace in the race, and with U S Navy Flag and Masar likely to try and dictate matters, stamina will be of the utmost importance. I can see those two going toe to toe from a long way out, and I think that will play into the hands of SAXON WARRIOR who can mow them down late and make it four wins from four en route to a crack at The Derby.
STEVOS’ PREDICTION: 1.SAXON WARRIOR 5/1 2.U S NAVY FLAG 20/1 3.MASAR 5/1
No comments:
Post a Comment