Punchestown Festival Day 4 Preview And Tips

We went without a winner again today, though Shaneshill grabbed 3rd at 33/1 and that covered our expenses. My NAP Penhill proved no match for a rejuvenated Faugheen who never looked like surrendering the lead he pinched at the start. Deor was bang there turning in, but just like Veinard on Day 1 he got badly chopped off trying to make his move up the inner and after that his chance was gone.

Front runner Hurricane Ben looked like getting off to a good start when they lined up for the handicap chase but the false start meant they had to go again and this time he was left nearer last than first. He was brought down by a faller when well out of contention. After three days of the Punchestown Festival we await our first winner, but hopefully we can stop the rot tomorrow.

Race 1

Hunter chases are not for me. No Bet.

 

Ask Nile should strip fitter after his outing at Fairyhouse.

Race 2

The second race on Day 4 is a 19 runner 21f novices’ handicap chase and while I usually relish studying these sort of races, the last couple of days have dented my confidence. It makes it very hard when the likes of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have multiple runners, especially with both trainers going toe to toe for the trainers’ title.

However, I am sticking to my guns and even though he is from an unfashionable stable, I think Ask Nile is criminally overpriced in this race at odds of 50/1. Seamus Neville’s 6yo son of Ask has won a maiden hurdle (19f hvy) and a Beginners’ Chase (17f gd) and he ran a lovely race on his handicap chase debut at Leopardstown off a mark of 134 (17f yld). He finished 8th of 18 that day, beaten 18L, but he was hampered at the 2nd last and considering how he stayed in after the final fence he could have finished a fair bit closer to the winner.

He was given a 4 month break after that good effort and he ran a nice enough race on his return at Fairyhouse earlier this month (16.5f hvy) on ground plenty soft for him over too sharp a trip. He should be suited by the step up to 21f on Friday, the yielding to soft ground should be more to his liking also and at odds of 50/1 he is worth chancing each way for small money.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ASK NILE E/W @ 50/1

Race 3

This contest is another 21f handicap chase with a total of 16 horses due to go to post and for once there are no Willie Mullins horses to worry about. However, it does look a very competitive heat and a case can be made for plenty. I am going to take a chance on Billy’s Hope here for Jessie Harrington and Donagh Meyler. At first glance it would appear that Magic Of Light is the main stable hope due to jockey bookings, but Robbie Power is probably obliged to ride that horse for the Potts.

Billy's Hope could go well for Donagh Meyler.

Billy’s Hope races off a mark of 123 today and I think that looks more than workable on the evidence of her Thurles Beginners’ Chase win when she beat Asthuria easily by 3L off level weights (18f sft/hvy). Asthuria is rated 141 over fences so it was an impressive display and Mill Quest was well adrift in 3rd. She came up short in a Grade 3 at Cork on her next start, and she disappointed over hurdles in a good race at Leopardstown over Xmas.

She has been given a nice little break since that poor run and she has a decent, if not spectacular, record when fresh. She returned from a fairly similar hiatus with a cracking run at Fairyhouse last April and I think she may have been primed for this contest. Donagh Meyler was 3rd at 25/1 on Light That for the same connections earlier this week and at odds of 14/1 Billy’s Hope is the each way selection.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: BILLY’S HOPE E/W @ 14/1 NB

Race 4

The feature race on Day 4 of the Punchestown Festival is the Champion Hurdle and this is all about two horses. Melon proved best of the Irish when chasing home Buveur D’Air at the Cheltenham Festival but he is only the 2nd favourite. Samcro was mightily impressive when winning at the Festival over further, but he proved his credentials over the minimum trip when scoring at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown in February.
 

Samcro can confirm his superstar status.

The form of Samcro’s win at Leopardstown hasn’t exactly worked out, but he won doing handstands and it seems that he possesses an abundance of both speed and stamina. I think he is the one to beat and 10/11 could look a big price after the race. My each way alternative to the top two is Wicklow Brave. This extremely versatile 9yo flopped at Cheltenham but he is a better horse than that and the slightly better ground will help here too. At odds of 12/1 he should give each way backers a run for their money.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: SAMCRO NAP 10/11; WICKLOW BRAVE E/W 12/1

Race 5

A field of 12 horses go to post for the 20f Champion Novice Hurdle and 9yo Pallasator is the market leader for Gordon Elliott and Davy Russell. This formerly very smart, if quirky, flat performer made the transition to hurdling late in the day but he has taken to the game well and he comes here on the back of two impressive victories, the last one coming on heavy ground in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse. This represents another step up in class though and he looks skinny enough to me on his first outing at the top level.
 

Debuchet looks interesting upped in trip.

Debuchet is a horse I have followed ever since his fine 2nd to Fayonagh in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last season. Things haven’t quite gone to plan for this grey 5yo son of Smadoun since, but this step up in trip on slightly better ground than he has been running on could bring about a jolt of improvement. If he could reproduce the form of his Cheltenham run he would be a massive danger to all and at odds of 8/1 he is worth backing each way in what looks a wide open heat.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DEBUCHET E/W @ 8/1

Race 6

Another Hunter Chase and no bet for me in this contest, and no bet in the final two races either.